arXiv subjects

Luke Hewitt

Publications and source records attributed to Luke Hewitt.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

AI systems out-persuade expert humans

Many societal decisions are settled by contests of persuasion. Conversational AI is a powerful new entrant in these contests, but whether it can out-persuade skilled and highly incentivized humans has remained unclear. Here, in a series of four preregistered experiments (n = 18,978 conversations from 6,923 people), we pitted AI systems against a range of human persuaders, including laypeople, winners of a separately preregistered four-round online persuasion tournament, professional canvassers, and world championship debaters. We found that AI systems were reliably more persuasive than expert humans, even when expert humans chose their issues, researched in advance, underwent hours of live, structured practice, and were incentivized with {\pounds}1,000 cash bonuses. In a follow-up study, AI's advantage persisted after experts received a coaching tool that let them practice against the AI that beat them, review their performance history, and see what AI would have said at key moments. We found converging evidence that AI's advantage stemmed from rapidly deploying larger quantities of information: after coaching, expert humans could tie an AI constrained to respond at human speeds and with human-length messages. In a final study, we show that AI's advantage extends to consequential real-world behavior: AI was nearly 3x more effective than professional canvassers from a UK fundraising firm at raising real-money donations to Save the Children. Together, these results establish that frontier AI systems out-persuade expert humans in conversation, with significant implications for political communication.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Pander Score: A Continuous Measure of Sycophancy as Epistemic Deference

Current AI models frequently exhibit epistemic sycophancy, endorsing claims to agree with a user. Existing evaluations typically measure this either by assessing what it takes to make a model shift a binary endorsement or by eliciting an explicit probability in a proposition. However, much user-facing sycophantic behavior is demonstrated through shifts in graded support expressed through ordinary language. We propose the Pander Score: a continuous score representing how sensitive the support expressed in a model's output is to the attitude expressed in a user's prompt. To generate the Pander Score, we provide a new protocol for estimating probabilities from natural language outputs, using LLMs-as-judges validated for consistency and correlation to human judgment. We deploy it on a new curated dataset of 349 propositions across diverse topics and over 11,000 prompts varying in user attitude, testing 18 models. Models pander to sharply different degrees. Among current flagship models, Z.ai's GLM-5.2 panders the most and Claude Fable 5 the least, with other models in between. When we run the test on instructional rather than conversational prompts, every model becomes substantially more likely to go along with claims they would push back against in conversation. We release the Pander Score as an easy-to-update benchmark and measurement pipeline for output-level sycophancy evaluation.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Anomalous, pre-yield grain-boundary sliding in copper revealed with in-situ high-resolution strain mapping

Grain boundary sliding is typically associated with high temperature deformation in engineering alloys. Here, we examine grain boundary sliding at room temperature in oxygen-free high-conductivity copper under quasi-static tensile testing. By using high-resolution digital image correlation (HRDIC) conducted in-situ within a scanning electron microscope to produce time-series strain maps, we unexpectedly observe that grain boundary sliding occurs extensively prior to macroscopic yield, and before the onset of significant crystallographic slip. Extreme values in strain and in-plane rotation are found to be associated with grain boundaries immediately prior to yield and during the initial stages of plastic deformation, which are higher than those associated with crystallographic slip. By combining laser scanning confocal microscopy height mapping with the strain maps and orientation maps from electron backscatter diffraction, grain boundary sliding character is determined, finding evidence of pure in-plane, pure out-of-plane and mixed-mode sliding.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗

arXiv2026

Artificial intelligence can persuade people to take political actions

There is substantial concern about the ability of advanced artificial intelligence to influence people's behaviour. A rapidly growing body of research has found that AI can produce large persuasive effects on people's attitudes, but whether AI can persuade people to take consequential real-world actions has remained unclear. In two large preregistered experiments N=17,950 responses from 14,779 people), we used conversational AI models to persuade participants on a range of attitudinal and behavioural outcomes, including signing real petitions and donating money to charity. We found sizable AI persuasion effects on these behavioural outcomes (e.g. +19.7 percentage points on petition signing). However, we observed no evidence of a correlation between AI persuasion effects on attitudes and behaviour. Moreover, we replicated prior findings that information provision drove effects on attitudes, but found no such evidence for our behavioural outcomes. In a test of eight behavioural persuasion strategies, all outperformed the most effective attitudinal persuasion strategy, but differences among the eight were small. Taken together, these results suggest that previous findings relying on attitudinal outcomes may generalize poorly to behaviour, and therefore risk substantially mischaracterizing the real-world behavioural impact of AI persuasion.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

DeliberationBench: A Normative Benchmark for the Influence of Large Language Models on Users' Views

As large language models (LLMs) become pervasive as assistants and thought partners, it is important to characterize their persuasive influence on users' beliefs. However, a central challenge is to distinguish "beneficial" from "harmful" forms of influence, in a manner that is normatively defensible and legitimate. We propose DeliberationBench, a benchmark for assessing LLM influence that takes the process of deliberative opinion polling as its standard. We demonstrate our approach in a preregistered randomized experiment in which 4,088 U.S. participants discussed 65 policy proposals with six frontier LLMs. Using opinion change data from four prior Deliberative Polls conducted by the Deliberative Democracy Lab, we find evidence that the tested LLMs' influence is substantial in magnitude and positively associated with the net opinion shifts following deliberation, suggesting that these models exert broadly epistemically desirable effects. We further explore differential influence between topic areas, demographic subgroups, and models. Our framework can function as an evaluation and monitoring tool, helping to ensure that the influence of LLMs remains consistent with democratically legitimate standards, and preserves users' autonomy in forming their views.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

The Levers of Political Persuasion with Conversational AI

There are widespread fears that conversational AI could soon exert unprecedented influence over human beliefs. Here, in three large-scale experiments (N=76,977), we deployed 19 LLMs-including some post-trained explicitly for persuasion-to evaluate their persuasiveness on 707 political issues. We then checked the factual accuracy of 466,769 resulting LLM claims. Contrary to popular concerns, we show that the persuasive power of current and near-future AI is likely to stem more from post-training and prompting methods-which boosted persuasiveness by as much as 51% and 27% respectively-than from personalization or increasing model scale. We further show that these methods increased persuasion by exploiting LLMs' unique ability to rapidly access and strategically deploy information and that, strikingly, where they increased AI persuasiveness they also systematically decreased factual accuracy.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Outcome-based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has been an effective approach for improving Large Language Models' reasoning in domains such as coding and mathematics. Here, we apply RLVR methods towards forecasting future real-world events - a challenging task for RL due to the very noisy (and delayed) outcomes involved. Using a novel dataset of recent questions from a prediction market, and accompanying relevant news headlines, we show that a compact (14B) reasoning model can be trained to match or surpass the predictive accuracy of frontier models like o1, while greatly improving probabilistic calibration. The model's performance is also practically meaningful: in a Polymarket trading simulation, we estimate that its bets would have yielded a return on investment of over 10% across all questions in the test set. We detail and compare approaches used in training our model, including augmenting our training-data with synthetic prediction questions, guardrails for learning stability, and median prediction sampling at inference-time.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

When Large Language Models are More PersuasiveThan Incentivized Humans, and Why

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to be highly persuasive, but when and why they outperform humans is still an open question. We compare the persuasiveness of two LLMs (Claude 3.5 Sonnet and DeepSeek v3) against humans who had incentives to persuade, using an interactive, real-time conversational setting. We demonstrate that LLMs persuasive superiority is context-dependent: it depends on whether the persuasion attempt is truthful (towards the right answer) or deceptive (towards the wrong answer) and on the LLM model, and wanes over repeated interactions (unlike human persuasiveness). In our first large-scale experiment, humans vs LLMs (Claude 3.5 Sonnet) interacted with other humans who were completing an online quiz for a reward, attempting to persuade them toward a given (either correct or incorrect) answer. Claude was more persuasive than incentivized human persuaders both in truthful and deceptive contexts and it significantly increased accuracy if persuasion was truthful, but decreased it if persuasion was deceptive. In a follow-up experiment with Deepseek v3, we replicated the findings about accuracy but found greater LLM persuasiveness only if the persuasion was deceptive. Linguistic analyses of the persuaders texts suggest that these effects may be due to LLMs expressing higher conviction than humans.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

How will advanced AI systems impact democracy?

Advanced AI systems capable of generating humanlike text and multimodal content are now widely available. In this paper, we discuss the impacts that generative artificial intelligence may have on democratic processes. We consider the consequences of AI for citizens' ability to make informed choices about political representatives and issues (epistemic impacts). We ask how AI might be used to destabilise or support democratic mechanisms like elections (material impacts). Finally, we discuss whether AI will strengthen or weaken democratic principles (foundational impacts). It is widely acknowledged that new AI systems could pose significant challenges for democracy. However, it has also been argued that generative AI offers new opportunities to educate and learn from citizens, strengthen public discourse, help people find common ground, and to reimagine how democracies might work better.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2021

Hybrid Memoised Wake-Sleep: Approximate Inference at the Discrete-Continuous Interface

Modeling complex phenomena typically involves the use of both discrete and continuous variables. Such a setting applies across a wide range of problems, from identifying trends in time-series data to performing effective compositional scene understanding in images. Here, we propose Hybrid Memoised Wake-Sleep (HMWS), an algorithm for effective inference in such hybrid discrete-continuous models. Prior approaches to learning suffer as they need to perform repeated expensive inner-loop discrete inference. We build on a recent approach, Memoised Wake-Sleep (MWS), which alleviates part of the problem by memoising discrete variables, and extend it to allow for a principled and effective way to handle continuous variables by learning a separate recognition model used for importance-sampling based approximate inference and marginalization. We evaluate HMWS in the GP-kernel learning and 3D scene understanding domains, and show that it outperforms current state-of-the-art inference methods.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2020

DreamCoder: Growing generalizable, interpretable knowledge with wake-sleep Bayesian program learning

Expert problem-solving is driven by powerful languages for thinking about problems and their solutions. Acquiring expertise means learning these languages -- systems of concepts, alongside the skills to use them. We present DreamCoder, a system that learns to solve problems by writing programs. It builds expertise by creating programming languages for expressing domain concepts, together with neural networks to guide the search for programs within these languages. A ``wake-sleep'' learning algorithm alternately extends the language with new symbolic abstractions and trains the neural network on imagined and replayed problems. DreamCoder solves both classic inductive programming tasks and creative tasks such as drawing pictures and building scenes. It rediscovers the basics of modern functional programming, vector algebra and classical physics, including Newton's and Coulomb's laws. Concepts are built compositionally from those learned earlier, yielding multi-layered symbolic representations that are interpretable and transferrable to new tasks, while still growing scalably and flexibly with experience.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2019

Learning to Infer Program Sketches

Our goal is to build systems which write code automatically from the kinds of specifications humans can most easily provide, such as examples and natural language instruction. The key idea of this work is that a flexible combination of pattern recognition and explicit reasoning can be used to solve these complex programming problems. We propose a method for dynamically integrating these types of information. Our novel intermediate representation and training algorithm allow a program synthesis system to learn, without direct supervision, when to rely on pattern recognition and when to perform symbolic search. Our model matches the memorization and generalization performance of neural synthesis and symbolic search, respectively, and achieves state-of-the-art performance on a dataset of simple English description-to-code programming problems.

cs.AI↗