arXiv subjects

Luke Zoltan Kelley

Publications and source records attributed to Luke Zoltan Kelley.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Pulsar Timing Arrays

Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) have recently found strong evidence for low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) in the nanohertz frequency regime. As GWs pass, they produce deviations in measured lengths and light-travel times. PTA experiments utilize the highly-consistent radio bursts from millisecond pulsars, distributed throughout the local galaxy, to identify miniscule timing deviations indicative of GWs. To distinguish GWs from noise, PTAs search for a particular correlation pattern between different pulsars called Hellings & Downs correlations. The type of GW signal that has recently been identified is a stochastic GW background (GWB), which is observed to have more power at lower GW frequencies. A GWB matching these observations has long been predicted from super-massive black-hole (SMBH) binaries. SMBHs are known to exist in the centers of galaxies, which can then form binaries when two SMBHs are brought together following the merger of galaxies. No example of an SMBH binary has confidently been identified to date, and tremendous uncertainties about their formation and evolution remain. Alternative sources of the GWB have also been proposed, based on models for new fundamental physics, particularly in the early Universe. Improved sensitivity of PTAs will eventual lead to the characterization of GWB anisotropy and constraints on GWs from individual SMBH binaries, either of which could definitively demonstrate the true origin of the GWB. If the source is SMBH binaries, a variety of electromagnetic counterparts are possible, allowing for multimessenger astrophysics with low-frequency GWs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

A Massive Black Hole 0.8 kpc from the Host Nucleus Revealed by the Offset Tidal Disruption Event AT2024tvd

Tidal disruption events (TDEs) that are spatially offset from the nuclei of their host galaxies offer a new probe of massive black hole (MBH) wanderers, binaries, triples, and recoiling MBHs. Here we present AT2024tvd, the first off-nuclear TDE identified through optical sky surveys. High-resolution imaging with the \textit{Hubble Space Telescope} shows that AT2024tvd is $0.914\pm 0.010^{\prime\prime}$ offset from the apparent center of its host galaxy, corresponding to a projected distance of $0.808\pm 0.009$ kpc at $z=0.045$. Chandra and VLA observations support the same conclusion for the TDE's X-ray and radio emission. AT2024tvd exhibits typical properties of nuclear TDEs, including a persistent hot UV/optical component that peaks at $L_{\rm bb}\sim 6\times 10^{43}\,{\rm erg\,s^{-1}}$, broad hydrogen lines in its optical spectra, and delayed brightening of luminous ($L_{\rm X,peak}\sim 3\times 10^{43}\,{\rm erg\,s^{-1}}$), highly variable soft X-ray emission. The MBH mass of AT2024tvd is $10^{6\pm1}\,M_\odot$, at least 10 times lower than its host galaxy's central black hole mass ($\gtrsim 10^8\,M_\odot$). The MBH in AT2024tvd has two possible origins: a wandering MBH from the lower-mass galaxy in a minor merger during the dynamical friction phase or a recoiling MBH ejected by triple interactions. Combining AT2024tvd with two previously known off-nuclear TDEs discovered in X-rays (3XMM J2150 and EP240222a), which likely involve intermediate-mass black holes in satellite galaxies, we find that the parent galaxies of all three events are very massive ($\sim 10^{10.9}\,M_\odot$). This result aligns with expectations from cosmological simulations that the number of offset MBHs scales linearly with the host halo mass.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15 yr data set: Posterior predictive checks for gravitational-wave detection with pulsar timing arrays

Pulsar-timing-array experiments have reported evidence for a stochastic background of nanohertz gravitational waves consistent with the signal expected from a population of supermassive--black-hole binaries. Their analyses assume power-law spectra for intrinsic pulsar noise and for the background, as well as a Hellings--Downs cross-correlation pattern among the gravitational-wave--induced residuals across pulsars. These assumptions may not be realized in actuality. We test them in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set using Bayesian posterior predictive checks. After fitting our fiducial model to real data, we generate a population of simulated data-set replications. We use the replications to assess whether the optimal-statistic significance, inter-pulsar correlations, and spectral coefficients are extreme. We recover Hellings--Downs correlations in simulated data sets at significance levels consistent with the correlations measured in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. A similar test on spectral coefficients shows that their values in real data are not extreme compared to their distributions across replications. We also evaluate the evidence for the stochastic background using posterior-predictive versions of the frequentist optimal statistic and of Bayesian model comparison, and find comparable significance (3.2 $σ$ and 3 $σ$ respectively) to what was previously reported for the standard statistics. We conclude with novel visualizations of the reconstructed gravitational waveforms that enter the residuals for each pulsar. Our analysis strengthens confidence in the identification and characterization of the gravitational-wave background.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Gravitational Wave Memory

We present the results of a search for nonlinear gravitational wave memory in the NANOGrav 15-year data set. We find no significant evidence for memory signals in the dataset, with a maximum Bayes factor of 3.1 in favor of a model including memory. We therefore place upper limits on the strain of potential gravitational wave memory events as a function of sky location and observing epoch. We find upper limits that are not always more constraining than previous NANOGrav results. We show that it is likely due to the increase in common red noise between the 12.5-year and 15-year NANOGrav datasets.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

The Gravitational Wave Background from Massive Black Holes in the ASTRID Simulation

Recent pulsar timing array (PTA) observations have detected nanohertz gravitational waves, likely originating from massive black hole binaries (MBHBs). The detected amplitude is unexpectedly higher than inferred from the electromagnetic measurements. We present new gravitational wave background (GWB) results from the ASTRID simulation. Its large volume and on-the-fly dynamical friction for MBHs provide new insights into the MBHB population, offering a more accurate assessment of its contribution to the observed GWB. ASTRID predicts a GWB from MBHBs of $h_c=2.8\times10^{-15}$, or $\sim45\%$ of the observed amplitude at $\sim 4\,{\rm nHz}$ and $h_c=2.5\times10^{-16}$ ($5\%$) with $h_c\propto f^{-1.6}$ at $\sim 30\,{\rm nHz}$. These predictions remain below current PTA constraints but align with previous empirical models based on the observed MBH mass functions. By comparison, TNG300 with post-processed MBH dynamics yields a range between $70-90\%$ ($20\% - 30\%$) of the observed levels at low (high) frequencies. At low frequencies, ASTRID predicts that the bulk of the GWB originates from MBHB with masses $M_{\rm tot}=1-3\times 10^9\,M_\odot$ peaking at $z\approx 0.3$, consistent with TNG300. Notably, both simulations predict significant GWB contribution from minor mergers ($q<0.2$) by up to $\sim 40\%$. By tracing the full merger trees of local MBHs in ASTRID, we show that they generate GWs at $\sim 10\%-80\%$ of the maximum signal assuming no accretion and recent equal-mass mergers. Finally, we demonstrate the importance of on-the-fly MBH dynamics, the lack of which leads to $3- 5$ times excessive mass growth by merger, and a similar boost to the GWB prediction.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Running of the Spectral Index

The NANOGrav 15-year data provides compelling evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background at nanohertz frequencies. The simplest model-independent approach to characterizing the frequency spectrum of this signal consists in a simple power-law fit involving two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index γ. In this paper, we consider the next logical step beyond this minimal spectral model, allowing for a running (i.e., logarithmic frequency dependence) of the spectral index, γ_run(f) = γ+ β\ln(f/f_ref). We fit this running-power-law (RPL) model to the NANOGrav 15-year data and perform a Bayesian model comparison with the minimal constant-power-law (CPL) model, which results in a 95% credible interval for the parameter βconsistent with no running, β\in [-0.80,2.96], and an inconclusive Bayes factor, B(RPL vs. CPL) = 0.69 +- 0.01. We thus conclude that, at present, the minimal CPL model still suffices to adequately describe the NANOGrav signal; however, future data sets may well lead to a measurement of nonzero β. Finally, we interpret the RPL model as a description of primordial GWs generated during cosmic inflation, which allows us to combine our results with upper limits from big-bang nucleosynthesis, the cosmic microwave background, and LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Host Galaxy Demographics Of Individually Detectable Supermassive Black-hole Binaries with Pulsar Timing Arrays

Massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) produce gravitational waves (GWs) that are detectable with pulsar timing arrays. We determine the properties of the host galaxies of simulated MBHBs at the time they are producing detectable GW signals. The population of MBHB systems we evaluate is from the \textit{Illustris} cosmological simulations taken in tandem with post processing semi-analytic models of environmental factors in the evolution of binaries. Upon evolving to the GW frequency regime accessible by pulsar timing arrays, we calculate the detection probability of each system using a variety of different values for pulsar noise characteristics in a plausible near-future International Pulsar Timing Array dataset. We find that detectable systems have host galaxies that are clearly distinct from the overall binary population and from most galaxies in general. With conservative noise factors, we find that host stellar metallicity, for example, peaks at $\sim 2 Z_\odot$ as opposed to the total population of galaxies which peaks at $\sim 0.6 Z_\odot$. Additionally, the most detectable systems are much brighter in magnitude and more red in color than the overall population, indicating their likely identity as large ellipticals with diminished star formation. These results can be used to develop effective search strategies for identifying host galaxies and electromagnetic counterparts following GW detection by pulsar timing arrays.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

Signatures of black hole seeding in the local Universe: Predictions from the BRAHMA cosmological simulations

The first "seeds" of supermassive black holes (BHs) continue to be an outstanding puzzle, and it is currently unclear whether the imprints of early seed formation survive today. Here we examine the signatures of seeding in the local Universe using five $[18~\mathrm{Mpc}]^3$ BRAHMA simulation boxes run to $z=0$. They initialize $1.5\times10^5~M_{\odot}$ BHs using different seeding models. The first four boxes initialize BHs as heavy seeds using criteria that depend on dense & metal-poor gas, Lyman-Werner radiation, gas spin, and environmental richness. The fifth box initializes BHs as descendants of lower mass seeds ($\sim10^3~M_{\odot}$) using a new stochastic seed model built in our previous work. We find that strong signatures of seeding survive in $\sim10^5-10^6~M_{\odot}$ local BHs hosted in $M_*\lesssim10^{9}~M_{\odot}$ dwarf galaxies. The signatures survive due to two reasons: 1) there is a substantial population of local $\sim10^5~M_{\odot}$ BHs that are ungrown relics of early seeds from $z\sim5-10$; 2) BH growth up to $\sim10^6~M_{\odot}$ is dominated by mergers all the way down to $z\sim0$. As the contribution from gas accretion increases, the signatures of seeding start to weaken in more massive $\gtrsim10^6~M_{\odot}$ BHs, and they eventually disappear for $\gtrsim10^7~M_{\odot}$ BHs. This is in contrast to high-z ($z\gtrsim5$) BH populations wherein the BH growth is fully merger dominated, which causes the seeding signatures to persist at least up to $\sim10^8~M_{\odot}$. The different seed models predict abundances of local $\sim10^6~M_{\odot}$ BHs ranging from $\sim0.01-0.05~\mathrm{Mpc}^{-3}$ with occupation fractions of $\sim20-100\%$ in $M_*\sim10^{9}~M_{\odot}$ galaxies. Our results highlight the potential for local $\sim10^5-10^6~M_{\odot}$ BH populations in dwarf galaxies to serve as a promising probe for BH seeding models.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Harmonic Analysis of the Pulsar Angular Correlations

Pulsar timing array observations have found evidence for an isotropic gravitational wave background with the Hellings-Downs angular correlations, expected from general relativity. This interpretation hinges on the measured shape of the angular correlations, which is predominately quadrupolar under general relativity. Here we explore a more flexible parameterization: we expand the angular correlations into a sum of Legendre polynomials and use a Bayesian analysis to constrain their coefficients with the 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). When including Legendre polynomials with multipoles $\ell \geq 2$, we only find a significant signal in the quadrupole with an amplitude consistent with general relativity and non-zero at the $\sim 95\%$ confidence level and a Bayes factor of 200. When we include multipoles $\ell \leq 1$, the Bayes factor evidence for quadrupole correlations decreases by more than an order of magnitude due to evidence for a monopolar signal at approximately 4 nHz which has also been noted in previous analyses of the NANOGrav 15-year data. Further work needs to be done in order to better characterize the properties of this monopolar signal and its effect on the evidence for quadrupolar angular correlations.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Looking for Signs of Discreteness in the Gravitational-wave Background

The cosmic merger history of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) is expected to produce a low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB). Here we investigate how signs of the discrete nature of this GWB can manifest in pulsar timing arrays through excursions from, and breaks in, the expected $f_{\mathrm{GW}}^{-2/3}$ power-law of the GWB strain spectrum. To do this, we create a semi-analytic SMBHB population model, fit to NANOGrav's 15 yr GWB amplitude, and with 1,000 realizations we study the populations' characteristic strain and residual spectra. Comparing our models to the NANOGrav 15 yr spectrum, we find two interesting excursions from the power-law. The first, at $2 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is below our GWB realizations with $p$-value significance $p = 0.05$ to $0.06$ ($\approx 1.8 σ- 1.9 σ$). The second, at $16 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is above our GWB realizations with $p = 0.04$ to $0.15$ ($\approx 1.4 σ- 2.1 σ$). We explore the properties of a loud SMBHB which could cause such an excursion. Our simulations also show that the expected number of SMBHBs decreases by three orders of magnitude, from $\sim 10^6$ to $\sim 10^3$, between $2\; \mathrm{nHz}$ and $20 \; \mathrm{nHz}$. This causes a break in the strain spectrum as the stochasticity of the background breaks down at $26^{+28}_{-19} \; \mathrm{nHz}$, consistent with predictions pre-dating GWB measurements. The diminished GWB signal from SMBHBs at frequencies above the $26~\mathrm{nHz}$ break opens a window for PTAs to detect continuous GWs from individual SMBHBs or GWs from the early universe.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Deep Neural Emulation of the Supermassive Black-hole Binary Population

While supermassive black-hole (SMBH)-binaries are not the only viable source for the low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB) signal evidenced by the most recent pulsar timing array (PTA) data sets, they are expected to be the most likely. Thus, connecting the measured PTA GWB spectrum and the underlying physics governing the demographics and dynamics of SMBH-binaries is extremely important. Previously, Gaussian processes (GPs) and dense neural networks have been used to make such a connection by being built as conditional emulators; their input is some selected evolution or environmental SMBH-binary parameters and their output is the emulated mean and standard deviation of the GWB strain ensemble distribution over many Universes. In this paper, we use a normalizing flow (NF) emulator that is trained on the entirety of the GWB strain ensemble distribution, rather than only mean and standard deviation. As a result, we can predict strain distributions that mirror underlying simulations very closely while also capturing frequency covariances in the strain distributions as well as statistical complexities such as tails, non-Gaussianities, and multimodalities that are otherwise not learnable by existing techniques. In particular, we feature various comparisons between the NF-based emulator and the GP approach used extensively in past efforts. Our analyses conclude that the NF-based emulator not only outperforms GPs in the ease and computational cost of training but also outperforms in the fidelity of the emulated GWB strain ensemble distributions.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2024

Growth of high redshift supermassive black holes from heavy seeds in the BRAHMA cosmological simulations: Implications of overmassive black holes

JWST has recently revealed a large population of accreting black holes (BHs) in the early Universe. Even after accounting for possible systematic biases, the high-z $M_*-M_{\rm \rm bh}$ relation derived from these objects by Pacucci et al. (2023 P23 relation) is above the local scaling relation by $>3σ$. To understand the implications of potentially overmassive high-z BH populations, we study the BH growth at $z\sim4-7$ using the $[18~\mathrm{Mpc}]^3$ BRAHMA suite of cosmological simulations with systematic variations of heavy seed models that emulate direct collapse black hole (DCBH) formation. In our least restrictive seed model, we place $\sim10^5~M_{\odot}$ seeds in halos with sufficient dense and metal-poor gas. To model conditions for direct collapse, we impose additional criteria based on a minimum Lyman Werner flux (LW flux $=10~J_{21}$), maximum gas spin, and an environmental richness criterion. The high-z BH growth in our simulations is merger dominated, with a relatively small contribution from gas accretion. For the most restrictive simulation that includes all the above seeding criteria for DCBH formation, the high-z $M_*-M_{\rm bh}$ relation falls significantly below the P23 relation (by factor of $\sim10$ at $z\sim4$). Only by excluding the spin and environment based criteria, and by assuming $\lesssim750~\mathrm{Myr}$ delay times between host galaxy mergers and subsequent BH mergers, are we able to reproduce the P23 relation. Overall, our results suggest that if high-z BHs are indeed systematically overmassive, assembling them would require more efficient heavy seeding channels, higher initial seed masses, additional contributions from lighter seeds to BH mergers, and / or more efficient modes for BH accretion.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

Beyond the Background: Gravitational Wave Anisotropy and Continuous Waves from Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Pulsar timing arrays have found evidence for a low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB). Assuming the GWB is produced by supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), the next gravitational wave (GW) signals astronomers anticipate are Continuous Waves (CWs) from single SMBHBs and their associated GWB anisotropy. The prospects for detecting CWs and anisotropy are highly dependent on the astrophysics of SMBHB populations. Thus, information from single sources can break degeneracies in astrophysical models and place much more stringent constraints than the GWB alone. We simulate and evolve SMBHB populations, model their GWs, and calculate their anisotropy and detectability. We investigate how varying components of our semi-analytic model, including the galaxy stellar mass function, the SMBH--host galaxy relation ($M_\mathrm{BH}$--$M_\mathrm{bulge}$), and the binary evolution prescription impact the expected detections. The CW occurrence rate is greatest for few total binaries, high SMBHB masses, large scatter in $M_\mathrm{BH}$--$M_\mathrm{bulge}$, and long hardening times. The occurrence rate depends most on the binary evolution parameters, implying that CWs offer a novel avenue to probe binary evolution. The most detectable CW sources are in the lowest frequency bin for a 16.03-year PTA, have masses from $\sim\!\!10^9-10^{10}\mathrm{M}_\odot$, and are $\sim\!\!1$ Gpc away. The level of anisotropy increases with frequency, with the angular power spectrum over multipole modes $\ell$ varying in low-frequency $C_{\ell>0}/C_0$ from $\sim\!\!5\times 10^{-3}$ to $\sim\!\!2\times10^{-1}$, depending on the model; typical values are near current upper limits. Observing this anisotropy would support SMBHB models for the GWB over cosmological models, which tend to be isotropic.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Signatures of Circumbinary Disk Dynamics in Multi-Messenger Population Studies of Massive Black Hole Binaries

We investigate the effect of cutting-edge circumbinary disk (CBD) evolution models on massive black hole binary (MBHB) populations and the gravitational wave background (GWB). We show that CBD-driven evolution leaves a tell-tale signature in MBHB populations, by driving binaries towards an equilibrium eccentricity that depends on binary mass ratio. We find high orbital eccentricities ($e_{\rm b} \sim 0.5$) as MBHBs enter multi-messenger observable frequency bands. The CBD-induced eccentricity distribution of MBHB populations in observable bands is independent of the initial eccentricity distribution at binary formation, erasing any memory of eccentricities induced in the large-scale dynamics of merging galaxies. Our results suggest that eccentric MBHBs are the rule rather than the exception in upcoming transient surveys, provided that CBDs regularly form in MBHB systems. We show that the GWB amplitude is sensitive to CBD-driven preferential accretion onto the secondary, resulting in an increase in GWB amplitude $A_{\rm yr^{-1}}$ by over 100\% with just 10\% Eddington accretion. As we self consistently allow for binary hardening and softening, we show that CBD-driven orbital expansion does not diminish the GWB amplitude, and instead increases the amplitude by a small amount. We further present detection rates and population statistics of MBHBs with $M_{\rm b} \gtrsim 10^6 \, M_{\odot}$ in LISA, showing that most binaries have equal mass ratios and can retain residual eccentricities up to $e_{\rm b} \sim 10^{-3}$ due to CBD-driven evolution.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

AGN feedback in isolated galaxies with a SMUGGLE multiphase ISM

Feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN) can strongly impact the host galaxies by driving high-velocity winds that impart substantial energy and momentum to the interstellar medium (ISM). In this work, we study the impact of these winds in isolated galaxies using high-resolution hydrodynamics simulations. Our simulations use the explicit ISM and stellar evolution model called Stars and MUltiphase Gas in GaLaxiEs (SMUGGLE). Additionally, using a super-Lagrangian refinement scheme, we resolve AGN feedback coupling to the ISM at $\sim$10-100 pc scales. We find that AGN feedback efficiently regulates the growth of SMBHs. However, its effect on star formation and outflows depends strongly on the relative strengths of AGN vs local stellar feedback and the geometrical structure of the gas disk. When the energy injected by AGN is subdominant to that of stellar feedback, there are no significant changes in the star formation rates or mass outflow rates of the host galaxy. Conversely, when the energy budget is dominated by the AGN, we see a significant decline in the star formation rates accompanied by an increase in outflows. Galaxies with thin gas disks like the Milky Way allow feedback to escape easily into the polar directions without doing much work on the ISM. In contrast, galaxies with thick and diffuse gas disks confine the initial expansion of the feedback bubble within the disk, resulting in more work done on the ISM. Phase space analysis indicates that outflows primarily comprise hot and diffuse gas, with a lack of cold and dense gas.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

Introducing the BRAHMA simulation suite: Signatures of low mass black hole seeding models in cosmological simulations

The first "seeds" of supermassive black holes (BH) can range from $\sim10^2-10^6~M_{\odot}$. However, the lowest mass seeds ($\lesssim10^3 M_{\odot}$) are inaccessible to most cosmological simulations due to resolution limitations. We present our new BRAHMA suite of cosmological simulations that uses a novel flexible seeding approach to represent low mass seeds. Our suite consists of two types of boxes that model $\sim10^3~M_{\odot}$ seeds using two distinct but mutually consistent seeding prescriptions at different simulation resolutions. First, we have the highest resolution $[9~\mathrm{Mpc}]^3$ (BRAHMA-9-D3) boxes that directly resolve $\sim10^3~M_{\odot}$ seeds and place them within halos with dense and metal poor gas. Second, we have lower-resolution and larger-volume $[18~\mathrm{Mpc}]^3$ (BRAHMA-18-E4) and $\sim[36~\mathrm{Mpc}]^3$ (BRAHMA-36-E5) boxes that seed their smallest resolvable $\sim10^4~\&~10^5~\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ BH descendants using new stochastic seeding prescriptions calibrated using the BRAHMA-9-D3 results. The three boxes together probe BHs between $\sim10^3-10^7 M_{\odot}$ at $z>7$ and we predict their key observables. The variation in the AGN luminosity functions is small (factors of $\sim2-3$) at the anticipated detection limits of potential future X-ray facilities ($\sim10^{43} \mathrm{ergs~s^{-1}}$ at $z\sim7$). Our simulations predict BHs $\sim10-100$ times heavier than expectations from local $M_*$ vs $M_{bh}$ relations, consistent with several JWST-detected AGN. For different seed models, our simulations merge BH binaries at $\sim1-15~\mathrm{kpc}$, with rates of $\sim200-2000$ per year for $\gtrsim10^3 M_{\odot}$ BHs, $\sim6-60$ per year for $\gtrsim10^4~M_{\odot}$ BHs, and up to $\sim10$ per year amongst $\gtrsim10^5 M_{\odot}$ BHs. These results suggest that the LISA mission has promising prospects for constraining seed models.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

The NANOGrav 12.5-year data set: A computationally efficient eccentric binary search pipeline and constraints on an eccentric supermassive binary candidate in 3C 66B

The radio galaxy 3C 66B has been hypothesized to host a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) at its center based on electromagnetic observations. Its apparent 1.05-year period and low redshift ($\sim0.02$) make it an interesting testbed to search for low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) using Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) experiments. This source has been subjected to multiple searches for continuous GWs from a circular SMBHB, resulting in progressively more stringent constraints on its GW amplitude and chirp mass. In this paper, we develop a pipeline for performing Bayesian targeted searches for eccentric SMBHBs in PTA data sets, and test its efficacy by applying it on simulated data sets with varying injected signal strengths. We also search for a realistic eccentric SMBHB source in 3C 66B using the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set employing PTA signal models containing Earth term-only as well as Earth+Pulsar term contributions using this pipeline. Due to limitations in our PTA signal model, we get meaningful results only when the initial eccentricity $e_0<0.5$ and the symmetric mass ratio $η>0.1$. We find no evidence for an eccentric SMBHB signal in our data, and therefore place 95% upper limits on the PTA signal amplitude of $88.1\pm3.7$ ns for the Earth term-only and $81.74\pm0.86$ ns for the Earth+Pulsar term searches for $e_0<0.5$ and $η>0.1$. Similar 95% upper limits on the chirp mass are $(1.98 \pm 0.05) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$ and $(1.81 \pm 0.01) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$. These upper limits, while less stringent than those calculated from a circular binary search in the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set, are consistent with the SMBHB model of 3C 66B developed from electromagnetic observations.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

How to Detect an Astrophysical Nanohertz Gravitational-Wave Background

Analysis of pulsar timing data have provided evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background in the nHz frequency band. The most plausible source of such a background is the superposition of signals from millions of supermassive black hole binaries. The standard statistical techniques used to search for such a background and assess its significance make several simplifying assumptions, namely: i) Gaussianity; ii) isotropy; and most often iii) a power-law spectrum. However, a stochastic background from a finite collection of binaries does not exactly satisfy any of these assumptions. To understand the effect of these assumptions, we test standard analysis techniques on a large collection of realistic simulated datasets. The dataset length, observing schedule, and noise levels were chosen to emulate the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. Simulated signals from millions of binaries drawn from models based on the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamical simulation were added to the data. We find that the standard statistical methods perform remarkably well on these simulated datasets, despite their fundamental assumptions not being strictly met. They are able to achieve a confident detection of the background. However, even for a fixed set of astrophysical parameters, different realizations of the universe result in a large variance in the significance and recovered parameters of the background. We also find that the presence of loud individual binaries can bias the spectral recovery of the background if we do not account for them.

gr-qc↗