arXiv subjects

Luke Zoltan Kelley

Publications and source records attributed to Luke Zoltan Kelley.

84 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

The Astrophysics of Nanohertz Gravitational Waves

Pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations in North America, Australia, and Europe, have been exploiting the exquisite timing precision of millisecond pulsars over decades of observations to search for correlated timing deviations induced by gravitational waves (GWs). PTAs are sensitive to the frequency band ranging just below 1 nanohertz to a few tens of microhertz. The discovery space of this band is potentially rich with populations of inspiraling supermassive black-holes binaries, decaying cosmic string networks, relic post-inflation GWs, and even non-GW imprints of axionic dark matter. This article aims to provide an understanding of the exciting open science questions in cosmology, galaxy evolution, and fundamental physics that will be addressed by the detection and study of GWs through PTAs. The focus of the article is on providing an understanding of the mechanisms by which PTAs can address specific questions in these fields, and to outline some of the subtleties and difficulties in each case. The material included is weighted most heavily towards the questions which we expect will be answered in the near-term with PTAs; however, we have made efforts to include most currently anticipated applications of nanohertz GWs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

Multi-Messenger Astrophysics with Pulsar Timing Arrays

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are on the verge of detecting low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) from supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs). With continued observations of a large sample of millisecond pulsars, PTAs will reach this major milestone within the next decade. Already, SMBHB candidates are being identified by electromagnetic surveys in ever-increasing numbers; upcoming surveys will enhance our ability to detect and verify candidates, and will be instrumental in identifying the host galaxies of GW sources. Multi-messenger (GW and electromagnetic) observations of SMBHBs will revolutionize our understanding of the co-evolution of SMBHs with their host galaxies, the dynamical interactions between binaries and their galactic environments, and the fundamental physics of accretion. Multi-messenger observations can also make SMBHBs 'standard sirens' for cosmological distance measurements out to $z\simeq0.5$. LIGO has already ushered in breakthrough insights in our knowledge of black holes. The multi-messenger detection of SMBHBs with PTAs will be a breakthrough in the years $2020-2030$ and beyond, and prepare us for LISA to help complete our views of black hole demographics and evolution at higher redshifts.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2018

Massive BH Binaries as Periodically-Variable AGN

Massive black-hole (MBH) binaries, which are expected to form following the merger of their parent galaxies, produce gravitational waves which will be detectable by Pulsar Timing Arrays at nanohertz frequencies (year periods). While no confirmed, compact MBH binary systems have been seen in electromagnetic observations, a large number of candidates have recently been identified in optical surveys of AGN variability. Using a combination of cosmological, hydrodynamic simulations; comprehensive, semi-analytic binary merger models; and analytic AGN spectra and variability prescriptions; we calculate the expected electromagnetic detection rates of MBH binaries as periodically variable AGN. In particular, we consider two independent variability models: (i) Doppler boosting due to large orbital velocities, and (ii) hydrodynamic variability in which the fueling of MBH accretion disks is periodically modulated by the companion. Our models predict that numerous MBH binaries should be present and distinguishable in the existing data. In particular, our fiducial models produce an expectation value of $0.2$ (Doppler) and $5$ (hydrodynamic) binaries to be identifiable in CRTS, while $20$ and $100$ are expected after five years of LSST observations. The brightness variations in most systems are too small to be distinguishable, but almost $1\%$ of AGN at redshifts $z \lesssim 0.6$ could be in massive binaries. We analyze the predicted binary parameters of observable systems and their selection biases, and include an extensive discussion of our model parameters and uncertainties.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2017

Single Sources in the Low-Frequency Gravitational Wave Sky: properties and time to detection by pulsar timing arrays

We calculate the properties, occurrence rates and detection prospects of individually resolvable 'single sources' in the low frequency gravitational wave (GW) spectrum. Our simulations use the population of galaxies and massive black hole binaries from the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamic simulations, coupled to comprehensive semi-analytic models of the binary merger process. Using mock pulsar timing arrays (PTA) with, for the first time, varying red-noise models, we calculate plausible detection prospects for GW single sources and the stochastic GW background (GWB). Contrary to previous results, we find that single sources are at least as detectable as the GW background. Using mock PTA, we find that these 'foreground' sources (also 'deterministic'/'continuous') are likely to be detected with $\sim 20 \, \textrm{yr}$ total observing baselines. Detection prospects, and indeed the overall properties of single sources, are only moderately sensitive to binary evolution parameters---namely eccentricity & environmental coupling, which can lead to differences of $\sim 5 \,\textrm{yr}$ in times to detection. Red noise has a stronger effect, roughly doubling the time to detection of the foreground between a white-noise only model ($\sim 10$ - $15 \, \textrm{yr}$) and severe red noise ($\sim 20$ - $30 \, \textrm{yr}$). The effect of red noise on the GWB is even stronger, suggesting that single source detections may be more robust. We find that typical signal-to-noise ratios for the foreground peak near $f = 0.1 \, \textrm{yr}^{-1}$, and are much less sensitive to the continued addition of new pulsars to PTA.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2017

The Gravitational Wave Background from Massive Black Hole Binaries in Illustris: spectral features and time to detection with pulsar timing arrays

Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTA) around the world are using the incredible consistency of millisecond pulsars to measure low frequency gravitational waves from (super)Massive Black Hole (MBH) binaries. We use comprehensive MBH merger models based on cosmological hydrodynamic simulations to predict the spectrum of the stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background (GWB). We use real Time-of-Arrival (TOA) specifications from the European, NANOGrav, Parkes, and International PTA (IPTA) to calculate realistic times to detection of the GWB across a wide range of model parameters. In addition to exploring the parameter space of environmental hardening processes (in particular: stellar scattering efficiencies), we have expanded our models to include eccentric binary evolution which can have a strong effect on the GWB spectrum. Our models show that strong stellar scattering and high characteristic eccentricities enhance the GWB strain amplitude near the PTA sensitive "sweet-spot" (near the frequency $f = 1 \, \mathrm{yr}^{-1}$), slightly improving detection prospects in these cases. While the GWB $amplitude$ is degenerate between cosmological and environmental parameters, the location of a spectral turnover at low frequencies ($f \lesssim 0.1 \, \mathrm{yr}^{-1}$) is strongly indicative of environmental coupling. At high frequencies ($f\gtrsim 1 \, \mathrm{yr}^{-1}$), the GWB spectral index can be used to infer the number density of sources and possibly their eccentricity distribution. Even with merger models that use pessimistic environmental and eccentricity parameters, if the current rate of PTA expansion continues, we find that the International PTA is highly likely to make a detection within about 10 years.

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arXiv2016

An Open Catalog for Supernova Data

We present the Open Supernova Catalog, an online collection of observations and metadata for presently 36,000+ supernovae and related candidates. The catalog is freely available on the web (https://sne.space), with its main interface having been designed to be a user-friendly, rapidly-searchable table accessible on desktop and mobile devices. In addition to the primary catalog table containing supernova metadata, an individual page is generated for each supernova which displays its available metadata, light curves, and spectra spanning X-ray to radio frequencies. The data presented in the catalog is automatically rebuilt on a daily basis and is constructed by parsing several dozen sources, including the data presented in the supernova literature and from secondary sources such as other web-based catalogs. Individual supernova data is stored in the hierarchical, human- and machine-readable JSON format, with the entirety of each supernova's data being contained within a single JSON file bearing its name. The setup we present here, which is based upon open source software maintained via git repositories hosted on github, enables anyone to download the entirety of the supernova dataset to their home computer in minutes, and to make contributions of their own data back to the catalog via git. As the supernova dataset continues to grow, especially in the upcoming era of all-sky synoptic telescopes which will increase the total number of events by orders of magnitude, we hope that the catalog we have designed will be a valuable tool for the community to analyze both historical and contemporary supernovae.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

Massive Black Hole Binary Mergers in Dynamical Galactic Environments

Gravitational Waves (GW) have now been detected from stellar-mass black hole binaries, and the first observations of GW from Massive Black Hole (MBH) Binaries are expected within the next decade. Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTA), which can measure the years long periods of GW from MBHB, have excluded many standard predictions for the amplitude of a stochastic GW Background (GWB). We use coevolved populations of MBH and galaxies from hydrodynamic, cosmological simulations ('Illustris') to calculate a predicted GWB. The most advanced predictions so far have included binary hardening mechanisms from individual environmental processes. We present the first calculation including all of the environmental mechanisms expected to be involved: dynamical friction, stellar 'loss-cone' scattering, and viscous drag from a circumbinary disk. We find that MBH binary lifetimes are generally multiple gigayears, and only a fraction coalesce by redshift zero. For a variety of parameters, we find all GWB amplitudes to be below the most stringent PTA upper limit of $A_{\textrm{yr}^{-1}} \approx 10^{-15}$. Our fairly conservative fiducial model predicts an amplitude of $A_{\textrm{yr}^{-1}} \approx 0.4\times 10^{-15}$---less than a factor of three below the current limit. At lower frequencies, we find $A_{0.1\,\textrm{yr}^{-1}} \approx 1.5\times 10^{-15}$ with spectral indices between $-0.4$ and $-0.6$---significantly flatter than the canonical value of $-2/3$ due to purely GW-driven evolution. Typical MBHB driving the GWB signal come from redshifts around $0.3$, with total masses of a few times $10^9\,M_\odot$, and in host galaxies with very large stellar masses. Even without GWB detections, our results can be connected to observations of dual AGN to constrain binary evolution.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2015

Recoiling black holes: prospects for detection and implications of spin alignment

Supermassive black hole (BH) mergers produce powerful gravitational wave (GW) emission. Asymmetry in this emission imparts a recoil kick to the merged BH, which can eject the BH from its host galaxy altogether. Recoiling BHs could be observed as offset active galactic nuclei (AGN). Several candidates have been identified, but systematic searches have been hampered by large uncertainties regarding their observability. By extracting merging BHs and host galaxy properties from the Illustris cosmological simulations, we have developed a comprehensive model for recoiling AGN. Here, for the first time, we model the effects of BH spin alignment and recoil dynamics based on the gas-richness of host galaxies. We predict that if BH spins are not highly aligned, seeing-limited observations could resolve offset AGN, making them promising targets for all-sky surveys. For randomly-oriented spins, less than about 10 spatially-offset AGN may be detectable in HST-COSMOS, and > 10^3 could be found with Pan-STARRS, LSST, Euclid, and WFIRST. Nearly a thousand velocity-offset AGN are predicted within the SDSS footprint; the rarity of large broad-line offsets among SDSS quasars is likely due in part to selection effects but suggests that spin alignment plays a role in suppressing recoils. Nonetheless, in our most physically motivated model where alignment occurs only in gas-rich mergers, hundreds of offset AGN should be found in all-sky surveys. Our findings strongly motivate a dedicated search for recoiling AGN.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2014

Tidal Disruption and Magnetic Flux Capture: Powering a Jet from a Quiescent Black Hole

The transient Swift J1644+57 is believed to have been produced by an unlucky star wandering too close to a supermassive black hole (BH) leading to a tidal disruption event. This unusual flare displayed highly super-Eddington X-ray emission which likely originated in a relativistic, collimated jet. This presents challenges to modern accretion and jet theory as upper limits of prior BH activity, which we obtain from the radio afterglow of this event, imply that both the pre-disruption BH and stellar magnetic fluxes fall many orders of magnitude short of what is required to power the observed X-ray luminosity. We argue that a pre-existing, "fossil" accretion disc can contain a sufficient reservoir of magnetic flux and that the stellar debris stream is capable of dragging this flux into the BH. To demonstrate this, we perform local, 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the disc--stream interaction and demonstrate that the interface between the two is unstable to mixing. This mixing entrains a sufficient amount of fossil disc magnetic flux into the infalling stellar debris to power the jet. We argue that the interaction with the fossil disc can have a pronounced effect on the structure and dynamics of mass fallback and likely the resulting transient. Finally, we describe possible ramifications of these interactions on unresolved problems in tidal disruption dynamics, in particular, the efficiency of debris circularization, and effects of the disruption on the preexisting black hole system. Animations online: http://goo.gl/T84tLs

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2013

Electromagnetic transients as triggers in searches for gravitational waves from compact binary mergers

The detection of an electromagnetic transient which may originate from a binary neutron star merger can increase the probability that a given segment of data from the LIGO-Virgo ground-based gravitational-wave detector network contains a signal from a binary coalescence. Additional information contained in the electromagnetic signal, such as the sky location or distance to the source, can help rule out false alarms, and thus lower the necessary threshold for a detection. Here, we develop a framework for determining how much sensitivity is added to a gravitational-wave search by triggering on an electromagnetic transient. We apply this framework to a variety of relevant electromagnetic transients, from short GRBs to signatures of r-process heating to optical and radio orphan afterglows. We compute the expected rates of multi-messenger observations in the Advanced detector era, and find that searches triggered on short GRBs --- with current high-energy instruments, such as Fermi --- and nucleosynthetic `kilonovae' --- with future optical surveys, like LSST --- can boost the number of multi-messenger detections by 15% and 40%, respectively, for a binary neutron star progenitor model. Short GRB triggers offer precise merger timing, but suffer from detection rates decreased by beaming and the high a priori probability that the source is outside the LIGO-Virgo sensitive volume. Isotropic kilonovae, on the other hand, could be commonly observed within the LIGO-Virgo sensitive volume with an instrument roughly an order of magnitude more sensitive than current optical surveys. We propose that the most productive strategy for making multi-messenger gravitational-wave observations is using triggers from future deep, optical all-sky surveys, with characteristics comparable to LSST, which could make as many as ten such coincident observations a year.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2013

Swift J1644+57 gone MAD: the case for dynamically-important magnetic flux threading the black hole in a jetted tidal disruption event

The unusual transient Swift J1644+57 likely resulted from a collimated relativistic jet powered by accretion onto a massive black hole (BH) following the tidal disruption (TD) of a star. Several mysteries cloud the interpretation of this event: (1) extreme flaring and `plateau' shape of the X-ray/gamma-ray light curve during the first 10 days after the gamma-ray trigger; (2) unexpected rebrightening of the forward shock radio emission months after trigger; (3) no obvious evidence for jet precession, despite misalignment typically expected between the angular momentum of the accretion disk and BH; (4) recent abrupt shut-off in jet X-ray emission after 1.5 years. Here we show that all of these seemingly disparate mysteries are naturally resolved by one assumption: the presence of strong magnetic flux Phi threading the BH. Initially, Phi is weak relative to high fall-back mass accretion rate, Mdot, and the disk and jets precess about the BH axis = our line of sight. As Mdot drops, Phi becomes dynamically important and leads to a magnetically-arrested disk (MAD). MAD naturally aligns disk and jet axis along the BH spin axis, but only after a violent rearrangement phase (jet wobbling). This explains the erratic light curve at early times and the lack of precession at later times. We use our model for Swift J1644+57 to constrain BH and disrupted star properties, finding that a solar-mass main sequence star disrupted by a relatively low mass, M~10^5-10^6 Msun, BH is consistent with the data, while a WD disruption (though still possible) is disfavored. The magnetic flux required to power Swift J1644+57 is too large to be supplied by the star itself, but it could be collected from a quiescent `fossil' accretion disk present in the galactic nucleus prior to the TD. The presence (lack of) of such a fossil disk could be a deciding factor in what TD events are accompanied by powerful jets.[abridged]

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2010

The Distribution of Coalescing Compact Binaries in the Local Universe: Prospects for Gravitational-Wave Observations

Merging compact binaries are the most viable and best studied candidates for gravitational wave (GW) detection by the fully operational network of ground-based observatories. In anticipation of the first detections, the expected distribution of GW sources in the local universe is of considerable interest. Here we investigate the full phase space distribution of coalescing compact binaries at $z = 0$ using dark matter simulations of structure formation. The fact that these binary systems acquire large barycentric velocities at birth ("kicks") results in merger site distributions that are more diffusely distributed with respect to their putative hosts, with mergers occurring out to distances of a few Mpc from the host halo. Redshift estimates based solely on the nearest galaxy in projection can, as a result, be inaccurate. On the other hand, large offsets from the host galaxy could aid the detection of faint optical counterparts and should be considered when designing strategies for follow-up observations. The degree of isotropy in the projected sky distributions of GW sources is found to be augmented with increasing kick velocity and to be severely enhanced if progenitor systems possess large kicks as inferred from the known population of pulsars and double compact binaries. Even in the absence of observed electromagnetic counterparts, the differences in sky distributions of binaries produced by disparate kick-velocity models could be discerned by GW observatories, within the expected accuracies and detection rates of advanced LIGO--in particular with the addition of more interferometers.

astro-ph.HE↗