arXiv subjects

Luyao Zhang

Publications and source records attributed to Luyao Zhang.

71 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

AI Ethics on Blockchain: Topic Analysis on Twitter Data for Blockchain Security

Blockchain has empowered computer systems to be more secure using a distributed network. However, the current blockchain design suffers from fairness issues in transaction ordering. Miners are able to reorder transactions to generate profits, the so-called miner extractable value (MEV). Existing research recognizes MEV as a severe security issue and proposes potential solutions, including prominent Flashbots. However, previous studies have mostly analyzed blockchain data, which might not capture the impacts of MEV in a much broader AI society. Thus, in this research, we applied natural language processing (NLP) methods to comprehensively analyze topics in tweets on MEV. We collected more than 20000 tweets with #MEV and #Flashbots hashtags and analyzed their topics. Our results show that the tweets discussed profound topics of ethical concern, including security, equity, emotional sentiments, and the desire for solutions to MEV. We also identify the co-movements of MEV activities on blockchain and social media platforms. Our study contributes to the literature at the interface of blockchain security, MEV solutions, and AI ethics.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2023

Cryptocurrency Valuation: An Explainable AI Approach

Currently, there are no convincing proxies for the fundamentals of cryptocurrency assets. We propose a new market-to-fundamental ratio, the price-to-utility (PU) ratio, utilizing unique blockchain accounting methods. We then proxy various existing fundamental-to-market ratios by Bitcoin historical data and find they have little predictive power for short-term bitcoin returns. However, PU ratio effectively predicts long-term bitcoin returns than alternative methods. Furthermore, we verify the explainability of PU ratio using machine learning. Finally, we present an automated trading strategy advised by the PU ratio that outperforms the conventional buy-and-hold and market-timing strategies. Our research contributes to explainable AI in finance from three facets: First, our market-to-fundamental ratio is based on classic monetary theory and the unique UTXO model of Bitcoin accounting rather than ad hoc; Second, the empirical evidence testifies the buy-low and sell-high implications of the ratio; Finally, we distribute the trading algorithms as open-source software via Python Package Index for future research, which is exceptional in finance research.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Understand Waiting Time in Transaction Fee Mechanism: An Interdisciplinary Perspective

Blockchain enables peer-to-peer transactions in cyberspace without a trusted third party. The rapid growth of Ethereum and smart contract blockchains generally calls for well-designed Transaction Fee Mechanisms (TFMs) to allocate limited storage and computation resources. However, existing research on TFMs must consider the waiting time for transactions, which is essential for computer security and economic efficiency. Integrating data from the Ethereum blockchain and memory pool (mempool), we explore how two types of events affect transaction latency. First, we apply regression discontinuity design (RDD) to study the causal inference of the Merge, the most recent significant upgrade of Ethereum. Our results show that the Merge significantly reduces the long waiting time, network loads, and market congestion. In addition, we verify our results' robustness by inspecting other compounding factors, such as censorship and unobserved delays of transactions via private changes. Second, examining three major protocol changes during the merge, we identify block interval shortening as the most plausible cause for our empirical results. Furthermore, in a mathematical model, we show block interval as a unique mechanism design choice for EIP1559 TFM to achieve better security and efficiency, generally applicable to the market congestion caused by demand surges. Finally, we apply time series analysis to research the interaction of Non-Fungible token (NFT) drops and market congestion using Facebook Prophet, an open-source algorithm for generating time-series models. Our study identified NFT drops as a unique source of market congestion -- holiday effects -- beyond trend and season effects. Finally, we envision three future research directions of TFM.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Empirical Analysis of EIP-1559: Transaction Fees, Waiting Time, and Consensus Security

A transaction fee mechanism (TFM) is an essential component of a blockchain protocol. However, a systematic evaluation of the real-world impact of TFMs is still absent. Using rich data from the Ethereum blockchain, the mempool, and exchanges, we study the effect of EIP-1559, one of the earliest-deployed TFMs that depart from the traditional first-price auction paradigm. We conduct a rigorous and comprehensive empirical study to examine its causal effect on blockchain transaction fee dynamics, transaction waiting times, and consensus security. Our results show that EIP-1559 improves the user experience by mitigating intrablock differences in the gas price paid and reducing users' waiting times. However, EIP-1559 has only a small effect on gas fee levels and consensus security. In addition, we find that when Ether's price is more volatile, the waiting time is significantly higher. We also verify that a larger block size increases the presence of siblings. These findings suggest new directions for improving TFMs.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Educational Game on Cryptocurrency Investment: Using Microeconomic Decision Making to Understand Macroeconomics Principles

Gamification is an effective strategy for motivating and engaging users, which is grounded in business, marketing, and management by designing games in nongame contexts. Gamifying education, which consists of the design and study of educational games, is an emerging trend. However, the existing classroom games for understanding macroeconomics have weak connections to the microfoundations of individual decision-making. We design an educational game on cryptocurrency investment for understanding macroeconomic concepts in microeconomic decisions. We contribute to the literature by designing game-based learning that engages students in understanding macroeconomics in incentivized individual investment decisions. Our game can be widely implemented in online, in-person, and hybrid classrooms. We also reflect on strategies for improving the user experience for future educational game implementations.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

On Blockchain We Cooperate: An Evolutionary Game Perspective

Cooperation is fundamental for human prosperity. Blockchain, as a trust machine, is a cooperative institution in cyberspace that supports cooperation through distributed trust with consensus protocols. While studies in computer science focus on fault tolerance problems with consensus algorithms, economic research utilizes incentive designs to analyze agent behaviors. To achieve cooperation on blockchains, emerging interdisciplinary research introduces rationality and game-theoretical solution concepts to study the equilibrium outcomes of various consensus protocols. However, existing studies do not consider the possibility for agents to learn from historical observations. Therefore, we abstract a general consensus protocol as a dynamic game environment, apply a solution concept of bounded rationality to model agent behavior, and resolve the initial conditions for three different stable equilibria. In our game, agents imitatively learn the global history in an evolutionary process toward equilibria, for which we evaluate the outcomes from both computing and economic perspectives in terms of safety, liveness, validity, and social welfare. Our research contributes to the literature across disciplines, including distributed consensus in computer science, game theory in economics on blockchain consensus, evolutionary game theory at the intersection of biology and economics, bounded rationality at the interplay between psychology and economics, and cooperative AI with joint insights into computing and social science. Finally, we discuss that future protocol design can better achieve the most desired outcomes of our honest stable equilibria by increasing the reward-punishment ratio and lowering both the cost-punishment ratio and the pivotality rate.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Monotonicity for AI ethics and society: An empirical study of the monotonic neural additive model in criminology, education, health care, and finance

Algorithm fairness in the application of artificial intelligence (AI) is essential for a better society. As the foundational axiom of social mechanisms, fairness consists of multiple facets. Although the machine learning (ML) community has focused on intersectionality as a matter of statistical parity, especially in discrimination issues, an emerging body of literature addresses another facet -- monotonicity. Based on domain expertise, monotonicity plays a vital role in numerous fairness-related areas, where violations could misguide human decisions and lead to disastrous consequences. In this paper, we first systematically evaluate the significance of applying monotonic neural additive models (MNAMs), which use a fairness-aware ML algorithm to enforce both individual and pairwise monotonicity principles, for the fairness of AI ethics and society. We have found, through a hybrid method of theoretical reasoning, simulation, and extensive empirical analysis, that considering monotonicity axioms is essential in all areas of fairness, including criminology, education, health care, and finance. Our research contributes to the interdisciplinary research at the interface of AI ethics, explainable AI (XAI), and human-computer interactions (HCIs). By evidencing the catastrophic consequences if monotonicity is not met, we address the significance of monotonicity requirements in AI applications. Furthermore, we demonstrate that MNAMs are an effective fairness-aware ML approach by imposing monotonicity restrictions integrating human intelligence.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

What are People Talking about in #BlackLivesMatter and #StopAsianHate? Exploring and Categorizing Twitter Topics Emerging in Online Social Movements through the Latent Dirichlet Allocation Model

Minority groups have been using social media to organize social movements that create profound social impacts. Black Lives Matter (BLM) and Stop Asian Hate (SAH) are two successful social movements that have spread on Twitter that promote protests and activities against racism and increase the public's awareness of other social challenges that minority groups face. However, previous studies have mostly conducted qualitative analyses of tweets or interviews with users, which may not comprehensively and validly represent all tweets. Very few studies have explored the Twitter topics within BLM and SAH dialogs in a rigorous, quantified and data-centered approach. Therefore, in this research, we adopted a mixed-methods approach to comprehensively analyze BLM and SAH Twitter topics. We implemented (1) the latent Dirichlet allocation model to understand the top high-level words and topics and (2) open-coding analysis to identify specific themes across the tweets. We collected more than one million tweets with the #blacklivesmatter and #stopasianhate hashtags and compared their topics. Our findings revealed that the tweets discussed a variety of influential topics in depth, and social justice, social movements, and emotional sentiments were common topics in both movements, though with unique subtopics for each movement. Our study contributes to the topic analysis of social movements on social media platforms in particular and the literature on the interplay of AI, ethics, and society in general.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2022

The Right Tool for the Job: Matching Active Learning Techniques to Learning Objectives

Active learning comprises many varied techniques that engage students actively in the construction of their understanding. Because of this variation, different active learning techniques may be best suited to achieving different learning objectives. We study students' perceptions of a set of active learning techniques (including a Python simulation and an interactive game) and some traditional techniques (like lecture). We find that students felt they engaged fairly actively with all of the techniques, though more with those with a heavy grade weight and some of the active learning techniques, and they reported enjoying the active learning techniques the most except for an assignment that required soliciting peer advice on a research idea. All of the techniques were rated as relatively effective for achieving each of six learning objectives, but to varying extents. The most traditional techniques like exams were rated highest for achieving an objective associated with lower order cognitive skills, remembering concepts. In contrast, some active learning techniques like class presentations and the Python simulation were rated highest for achieving objectives related to higher order cognitive skills, including learning to conduct research, though lectures also performed surprisingly well for these objectives. Other technique-objective matches are intuitive; for example, the debate is rated highly for understanding pros and cons of an issue, and small group discussion is rated highly for collaborative learning. Our results support the idea that different teaching techniques are best suited for different outcomes, which implies that a mix of techniques may be optimal in course design.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

A Data Science Pipeline for Algorithmic Trading: A Comparative Study of Applications for Finance and Cryptoeconomics

Recent advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) have made algorithmic trading play a central role in finance. However, current research and applications are disconnected information islands. We propose a generally applicable pipeline for designing, programming, and evaluating the algorithmic trading of stock and crypto assets. Moreover, we demonstrate how our data science pipeline works with respect to four conventional algorithms: the moving average crossover, volume-weighted average price, sentiment analysis, and statistical arbitrage algorithms. Our study offers a systematic way to program, evaluate, and compare different trading strategies. Furthermore, we implement our algorithms through object-oriented programming in Python3, which serves as open-source software for future academic research and applications.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2022

Visualizing Non-Fungible Token Ethics: A Case Study On CryptoPunks

As a blockchain-based application, Non-Fungible Token (NFT) has received worldwide attention over the past few years. Digital artwork is the main form of NFT that can be stored on different blockchains. Although the NFT market is rapidly developing, we observed potential ethical and racial fairness issues in the design of NFT artworks due to a lack of ethical guidelines or censorship. Therefore, we investigated CryptoPunks, the most famous collection in the NFT market, to explore and visualize its potential ethical issues. We explored the ethical issues from three aspects: design, trading transactions, and related topics on Twitter. We scraped data from Twitter and Dune Analytics using python libraries, Twitter crawler, and sentiment analysis tools. Our five visualizations implied that 1.6 times more male punks were created in the initial design process than the female ones. And the male ones have a higher average selling price than females; lighter-skinned punks tend to sell for higher prices. The results of our study and visualizations provide a preliminary exploration of CryptoPunks and further inspire future ethical-related investigation and research in the NFT domain.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2022

Bridging Level-K to Nash Equilibrium

We introduce NLK, a model that connects the Nash equilibrium (NE) and Level-K. It allows a player in a game to believe that her opponent may be either less or as sophisticated as, she is, a view supported in psychology. We apply NLK to data from five published papers on static, dynamic, and auction games. NLK provides different predictions than those of the NE and Level-K; moreover, a simple version of NLK explains the experimental data better in many cases, with the same or lower number of parameters. We discuss extensions to games with more than two players and heterogeneous beliefs.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Deciphering Bitcoin Blockchain Data by Cohort Analysis

Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer electronic payment system that has rapidly grown in popularity in recent years. Usually, the complete history of Bitcoin blockchain data must be queried to acquire variables with economic meaning. This task has recently become increasingly difficult, as there are over 1.6 billion historical transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain. It is thus important to query Bitcoin transaction data in a way that is more efficient and provides economic insights. We apply cohort analysis that interprets Bitcoin blockchain data using methods developed for population data in the social sciences. Specifically, we query and process the Bitcoin transaction input and output data within each daily cohort. This enables us to create datasets and visualizations for some key Bitcoin transaction indicators, including the daily lifespan distributions of spent transaction output (STXO) and the daily age distributions of the cumulative unspent transaction output (UTXO). We provide a computationally feasible approach for characterizing Bitcoin transactions that paves the way for future economic studies of Bitcoin.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

Optimal Algorithmic Monetary Policy

Centralized monetary policy, leading to persistent inflation, is often inconsistent, untrustworthy, and unpredictable. Algorithmic stablecoins enabled by blockchain technology are promising in solving this problem. Algorithmic stablecoins utilize a monetary policy that is entirely rule-based. However, there is little understanding of how to optimize the rule. We propose a model that trade-off the price for supply stability. We further study the comparative statics by varying several design features. Finally, we discuss the empirical implications for designing stablecoins by the private sector and Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) by the public sector.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2020

Taking the pulse of COVID-19: A spatiotemporal perspective

The sudden outbreak of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) swept across the world in early 2020, triggering the lockdowns of several billion people across many countries, including China, Spain, India, the U.K., Italy, France, Germany, and most states of the U.S. The transmission of the virus accelerated rapidly with the most confirmed cases in the U.S., and New York City became an epicenter of the pandemic by the end of March. In response to this national and global emergency, the NSF Spatiotemporal Innovation Center brought together a taskforce of international researchers and assembled implemented strategies to rapidly respond to this crisis, for supporting research, saving lives, and protecting the health of global citizens. This perspective paper presents our collective view on the global health emergency and our effort in collecting, analyzing, and sharing relevant data on global policy and government responses, geospatial indicators of the outbreak and evolving forecasts; in developing research capabilities and mitigation measures with global scientists, promoting collaborative research on outbreak dynamics, and reflecting on the dynamic responses from human societies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Spatiotemporal Patterns of COVID-19 Impact on Human Activities and Environment in China Using Nighttime Light and Air Quality Data

In order to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on people's lives, activities and the natural environment, this paper investigates the spatial and temporal characteristics of Night Time Light (NTL) radiance and Air Quality Index (AQI) before and during the pandemic in mainland China. Our results show that the monthly average NTL brightness is much lower during the quarantine period than before. This study categorizes NTL into three classes: residential area, transportation and public facilities and commercial centers, with NTL radiance ranges of 5-20, 20-40 and greater than 40 nW/(cm*cm*sr), respectively. We found that the Number Of Pixels (NOP) with NTL detection increased in the residential area and decreased in the commercial centers for most of the provinces after the shutdown, while transportation and public facilities generally stayed the same. More specifically, we examined these factors in Wuhan, where the first confirmed cases were reported, and where the earliest quarantine measures were taken. Observations and analysis of pixels associated with commercial centers were observed to have lower NTL radiance values, indicating a dimming behavior, while residential area pixels recorded increased levels of brightness, after the beginning of the lockdown. The study also discovered a significant decreasing trend in the daily average AQI for the whole country, with cleaner air in most provinces during February and March, compared to January 2020. In conclusion, the outbreak and spread of COVID-19 has had a crucial impact on people's daily lives and activity ranges through the increased implementation of lockdown and quarantine policies. On the other hand, the air quality of China has improved with the reduction of non-essential industries and motor vehicle usage.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Secure Analysis Over Generalized-K Channels

In this letter, we adopt the SOP definition in [4] and the simplified model of [8], and derive a closed-form expression for the proposed SOP over GK fading channels. To simplify this expression and obtain additional insights, we also perform an asymptotic analysis of the main link in the high SNR region.

eess.SP↗