arXiv subjects

Lyndsay Shand

Publications and source records attributed to Lyndsay Shand.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Tracing the impacts of Mount Pinatubo eruption on regional climate using spatially-varying changepoint detection

Significant events, such as volcanic eruptions, can have global and long-lasting impacts on climate. These global impacts, however, are not uniform across space and time. Understanding how the Mt. Pinatubo eruption affects global and regional climate is of great interest for predicting the impact on climate due to similar events as well as understanding the possible effect of the stratospheric aerosol injections proposed to combat climate change. While many studies illustrated the impact of the Pinatubo eruption on a global scale, studies at a fine regional scale are scarce. We propose a Bayesian spatially-varying changepoint detection and estimation method to trace the impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption on regional climate. Our approach takes into account the diffusing nature and spatial correlation of the climate changes attributed to the volcanic eruption. We illustrate our method and demonstrate its advantages over an existing changepoint detection method through simulations. Finally, we apply our method to monthly stratospheric aerosol optical depth and surface temperature data from 1985 to 1995 to detect and estimate changepoints following the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. Our results quantitatively characterize the spatial pattern of the eruption's impact on regional climate, complementing the previous studies on the global impact of the Pinatubo eruption.

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arXiv2025

A Multivariate Space-Time Dynamic Model for Characterizing the Atmospheric Impacts Following the Mt Pinatubo Eruptio

The June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption resulted in a massive increase of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, absorbing radiation and leading to global changes in surface and stratospheric temperatures. A volcanic eruption of this magnitude serves as a natural analog for stratospheric aerosol injection, a proposed solar radiation modification method to combat a warming climate. The impacts of such an event are multifaceted and region-specific. Our goal is to characterize the multivariate and dynamic nature of the atmospheric impacts following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. We developed a multivariate space-time dynamic linear model to understand the full extent of the spatially- and temporally-varying impacts. Specifically, spatial variation is modeled using a flexible set of basis functions for which the basis coefficients are allowed to vary in time through a vector autoregressive (VAR) structure. This novel model is caste in a Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) framework and estimated via a customized MCMC approach. We demonstrate how the model quantifies the relationships between key atmospheric parameters prior to and following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption with reanalysis data from MERRA-2 and highlight when such model is advantageous over univariate models.

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arXiv2023

An optical flow approach to tracking ship track behavior using GOES-R satellite imagery

Ship emissions can form linear cloud structures, or ship tracks, when atmospheric water vapor condenses on aerosols in the ship exhaust. These structures are of interest because they are observable and traceable examples of marine cloud brightening, a mechanism that has been studied as a potential approach for solar climate intervention. Ship tracks can be observed throughout the diurnal cycle via space-borne assets like the Advanced Baseline Imagers on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, the GOES-R series. Due to complex atmospheric dynamics, it can be difficult to track these aerosol perturbations over space and time to precisely characterize how long a single emission source can significantly contribute to indirect radiative forcing. We propose an optical flow approach to estimate the trajectories of ship-emitted aerosols after they begin mixing with low boundary layer clouds using GOES-17 satellite imagery. Most optical flow estimation methods have only been used to estimate large scale atmospheric motion. We demonstrate the ability of our approach to precisely isolate the movement of ship tracks in low-lying clouds from the movement of large swaths of high clouds that often dominate the scene. This efficient approach shows that ship tracks persist as visible, linear features beyond 9 hours and sometimes longer than 24 hours.

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arXiv2023

Autocalibration of the E3SM version 2 atmosphere model using a PCA-based surrogate for spatial fields

Global Climate Model (GCM) tuning (calibration) is a tedious and time-consuming process, with high-dimensional input and output fields. Experts typically tune by iteratively running climate simulations with hand-picked values of tuning parameters. Many, in both the statistical and climate literature, have proposed alternative calibration methods, but most are impractical or difficult to implement. We present a practical, robust and rigorous calibration approach on the atmosphere-only model of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2. Our approach can be summarized into two main parts: (1) the training of a surrogate that predicts E3SM output in a fraction of the time compared to running E3SM, and (2) gradient-based parameter optimization. To train the surrogate, we generate a set of designed ensemble runs that span our input parameter space and use polynomial chaos expansions on a reduced output space to fit the E3SM output. We use this surrogate in an optimization scheme to identify values of the input parameters for which our model best matches gridded spatial fields of climate observations. To validate our choice of parameters, we run E3SMv2 with the optimal parameter values and compare prediction results to expertly-tuned simulations across 45 different output fields. This flexible, robust, and automated approach is straightforward to implement, and we demonstrate that the resulting model output matches present day climate observations as well or better than the corresponding output from expert tuned parameter values, while considering high-dimensional output and operating in a fraction of the time.

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arXiv2021

Simulating cloud-aerosol interactions made by ship emissions

Satellite imagery can detect temporary cloud trails or ship tracks formed from aerosols emitted from large ships traversing our oceans, a phenomenon that global climate models cannot directly reproduce. Ship tracks are observable examples of marine cloud brightening, a potential solar climate intervention that shows promise in helping combat climate change. Whether or not a ship's emission path visibly impacts the clouds above and how long a ship track visibly persists largely depends on the exhaust type and properties of the boundary layer with which it mixes. In order to be able to statistically infer the longevity of ship-emitted aerosols and characterize atmospheric conditions under which they form, a first step is to simulate, with mathematical surrogate model rather than an expensive physical model, the path of these cloud-aerosol interactions with parameters that are inferable from imagery. This will allow us to compare when/where we would expect to ship tracks to be visible, independent of atmospheric conditions, with what is actually observed from satellite imagery to be able to infer under what atmospheric conditions do ship tracks form. In this paper, we will discuss an approach to stochastically simulate the behavior of ship induced aerosols parcels within naturally generated clouds. Our method can use wind fields and potentially relevant atmospheric variables to determine the approximate movement and behavior of the cloud-aerosol tracks, and uses a stochastic differential equation (SDE) to model the persistence behavior of cloud-aerosol paths. This SDE incorporates both a drift and diffusion term which describes the movement of aerosol parcels via wind and their diffusivity through the atmosphere, respectively. We successfully demonstrate our proposed approach with an example using simulated wind fields and ship paths.

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arXiv2021

Spatio-temporal extreme event modeling of terror insurgencies

Extreme events with potential deadly outcomes, such as those organized by terror groups, are highly unpredictable in nature and an imminent threat to society. In particular, quantifying the likelihood of a terror attack occurring in an arbitrary space-time region and its relative societal risk, would facilitate informed measures that would strengthen national security. This paper introduces a novel self-exciting marked spatio-temporal model for attacks whose inhomogeneous baseline intensity is written as a function of covariates. Its triggering intensity is succinctly modeled with a Gaussian Process prior distribution to flexibly capture intricate spatio-temporal dependencies between an arbitrary attack and previous terror events. By inferring the parameters of this model, we highlight specific space-time areas in which attacks are likely to occur. Furthermore, by measuring the outcome of an attack in terms of the number of casualties it produces, we introduce a novel mixture distribution for the number of casualties. This distribution flexibly handles low and high number of casualties and the discrete nature of the data through a {\it Generalized ZipF} distribution. We rely on a customized Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to estimate the model parameters. We illustrate the methodology with data from the open source Global Terrorism Database (GTD) that correspond to attacks in Afghanistan from 2013-2018. We show that our model is able to predict the intensity of future attacks for 2019-2021 while considering various covariates of interest such as population density, number of regional languages spoken, and the density of population supporting the opposing government.

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arXiv2021

Multimodal Bayesian Registration of Noisy Functions using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Functional data registration is a necessary processing step for many applications. The observed data can be inherently noisy, often due to measurement error or natural process uncertainty, which most functional alignment methods cannot handle. A pair of functions can also have multiple optimal alignment solutions, which is not addressed in current literature. In this paper, a flexible Bayesian approach to functional alignment is presented, which appropriately accounts for noise in the data without any pre-smoothing required. Additionally, by running parallel MCMC chains, the method can account for multiple optimal alignments via the multi-modal posterior distribution of the warping functions. To most efficiently sample the warping functions, the approach relies on a modification of the standard Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to be well-defined on the infinite-dimensional Hilbert space. This flexible Bayesian alignment method is applied to both simulated data and real data sets to show its efficiency in handling noisy functions and successfully accounting for multiple optimal alignments in the posterior; characterizing the uncertainty surrounding the warping functions.

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arXiv2020

Elastic depths for detecting shape anomalies in functional data

We propose a new family of depth measures called the elastic depths that can be used to greatly improve shape anomaly detection in functional data. Shape anomalies are functions that have considerably different geometric forms or features from the rest of the data. Identifying them is generally more difficult than identifying magnitude anomalies because shape anomalies are often not distinguishable from the bulk of the data with visualization methods. The proposed elastic depths use the recently developed elastic distances to directly measure the centrality of functions in the amplitude and phase spaces. Measuring shape outlyingness in these spaces provides a rigorous quantification of shape, which gives the elastic depths a strong theoretical and practical advantage over other methods in detecting shape anomalies. A simple boxplot and thresholding method is introduced to identify shape anomalies using the elastic depths. We assess the elastic depth's detection skill on simulated shape outlier scenarios and compare them against popular shape anomaly detectors. Finally, we use hurricane trajectories to demonstrate the elastic depth methodology on manifold valued functional data. Supplementary materials, including additional simulations, data examples, and an R-package are available online.

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