Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Márton Ispány

Publications and source records attributed to Márton Ispány.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Consistent intercept estimation and inference for unit-root INAR(2) processes

\citet{barczy2014asymptotic} showed that the ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimator of the innovation mean is inconsistent for a unit-root INAR(2) process. We construct a consistent intercept estimator using inverse-time weighted least squares (WLS) and derive its mixed-rate asymptotics: the intercept estimator is asymptotically normal at rate $\sqrt{\log n}$, with a Gaussian limit independent of the autoregressive limits, while the autoregressive estimators retain their OLS rates. We develop an OLS unit-root test calibrated with WLS nuisance estimates. Under the maintained unit root, residual-score Gaussian intervals for the innovation mean and long-run drift remain asymptotically valid after test nonrejection. Simulations show that WLS reduces root mean squared error for both quantities relative to OLS, with further gains from imposing the unit root. An application to two Canadian flood inventories shows that conclusions about persistence depend on the inventory and weighting offset.

math.ST↗
arXiv2020

Large-scale Analysis and Simulation of Traffic Flow using Markov Models

Modeling and simulating movement of vehicles in established transportation infrastructures, especially in large urban road networks is an important task. It helps with understanding and handling traffic problems, optimizing traffic regulations and adapting the traffic management in real time for unexpected disaster events. A mathematically rigorous stochastic model that can be used for traffic analysis was proposed earlier by other researchers which is based on an interplay between graph and Markov chain theories. This model provides a transition probability matrix which describes the traffic's dynamic with its unique stationary distribution of the vehicles on the road network. In this paper, a new parametrization is presented for this model by introducing the concept of two-dimensional stationary distribution which can handle the traffic's dynamic together with the vehicles' distribution. In addition, the weighted least squares estimation method is applied for estimating this new parameter matrix using trajectory data. In a case study, we apply our method on the Taxi Trajectory Prediction dataset and road network data from the OpenStreetMap project, both available publicly. To test our approach, we have implemented the proposed model in software. We have run simulations in medium and large scales and both the model and estimation procedure, based on artificial and real datasets, have been proved satisfactory. In a real application, we have unfolded a stationary distribution on the map graph of Porto, based on the dataset. The approach described here combines techniques whose use together to analyze traffic on large road networks has not previously been reported.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2012

Asymptotic behavior of critical primitive multi-type branching processes with immigration

Under natural assumptions a Feller type diffusion approximation is derived for critical multi-type branching processes with immigration when the offspring mean matrix is primitive (in other words, positively regular). Namely, it is proved that a sequence of appropriately scaled random step functions formed from a sequence of critical primitive multi-type branching processes with immigration converges weakly towards a squared Bessel process supported by a ray determined by the Perron vector of the offspring mean matrix.

math.PR↗
arXiv2009

A note on weak convergence of random step processes

First, sufficient conditions are given for a triangular array of random vectors such that the sequence of related random step functions converges towards a (not necessarily time homogeneous) diffusion process. These conditions are weaker and easier to check than the existing ones in the literature, and they are derived from a very general semimartingale convergence theorem due to Jacod and Shiryaev, which is hard to use directly. Next, sufficient conditions are given for convergence of stochastic integrals of random step functions, where the integrands are functionals of the integrators. This result covers situations which can not be handled by existing ones.

math.PR↗
arXiv2007

Poisson limit of an inhomogeneous nearly critical INAR(1) model

An inhomogeneous first--order integer--valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) process is investigated, where the autoregressive type coefficient slowly converges to one. It is shown that the process converges weakly to a Poisson or a compound Poisson distribution.

math.PR↗