arXiv subjects

Márton Karsai

Publications and source records attributed to Márton Karsai.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Structure of Spreading on Temporal Networks

The physics of spreading in static networks is well understood through mappings to percolation. We show that spreading dynamics on temporal networks can analogously be mapped to reachability in temporal event graphs. This provides a theoretical and computational framework for a class of processes, such as variants of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model. Without explicit simulations, through the component analysis of event graphs, we obtain epidemic prevalence and derive epidemic thresholds for temporal networks with arbitrary degree and inter-event time distributions, with significant computational advantages as compared to explicit simulations.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Decentralised Federated Learning over Temporal Networks: The Role of Heterogeneities

Decentralised federated learning, based on peer-to-peer communication, is increasingly proposed for on-device training of machine learning models, promising a privacy-preserving, communication-efficient training process with no risk of single-point failure. However, the role of structural and temporal inhomogeneities in such fully decentralised settings remains poorly understood. Here, we investigate their effects when model parameters are locally averaged during aggregation. We show that the decentralised federated learning process is governed, both in the early phase and the late, stationary limit, by the same dynamics as a lazy random-walk diffusion process on temporal networks. Based on this mapping, we demonstrate that the typical experimental scenario used in decentralised federated learning leads to unrealistically rapid convergence because of ignoring the temporal and structural inhomogeneities inherent in the communication network. We analyse real-world temporal networks and find that inhomogeneities most often dramatically slow down diffusion, hence the convergence process.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Opinion dynamics: Statistical physics and beyond

Opinion dynamics, the study of how individual beliefs and collective public opinion evolve, is a fertile domain for applying statistical physics to complex social phenomena. Like physical systems, societies exhibit macroscopic regularities from localized interactions, leading to outcomes such as consensus or fragmentation. This field has grown significantly, attracting interdisciplinary methods and driven by a surge in large-scale behavioral data. This review covers its rapid progress, bridging the literature dispersion. We begin with essential concepts and definitions, encompassing the nature of opinions, microscopic and macroscopic dynamics. This foundation leads to an overview of empirical research, from lab experiments to large-scale data analysis, which informs and validates models of opinion dynamics. We then present individual-based models, categorized by their macroscopic phenomena (e.g., consensus, polarization, echo chambers) and microscopic mechanisms (e.g., homophily, assimilation). Furthermore, the review covers common analytical and computational tools, including stochastic processes, treatments, simulations, and optimization. Finally, we explore emerging frontiers, such as connecting empirical data to models and using AI agents as testbeds for novel social phenomena. By systematizing terminology and emphasizing analogies with traditional physics, this review aims to consolidate knowledge, provide a robust theoretical foundation, and shape future research in opinion dynamics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Multilayer network science: theory, methods, and applications

Multilayer network science has emerged as a central framework for analysing interconnected and interdependent complex systems. Its relevance has grown substantially with the increasing availability of rich, heterogeneous data, which makes it possible to uncover and exploit the inherently multilayered organisation of many real-world networks. In this review, we summarise recent developments in the field. On the theoretical and methodological front, we outline core concepts and survey advances in community detection, dynamical processes, temporal networks, higher-order interactions, and machine-learning-based approaches. On the application side, we discuss progress across diverse domains, including interdependent infrastructures, spreading dynamics, computational social science, economic and financial systems, ecological and climate networks, science-of-science studies, network medicine, and network neuroscience. We conclude with a forward-looking perspective, emphasizing the need for standardised datasets and software, deeper integration of temporal and higher-order structures, and a transition toward genuinely predictive models of complex systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Reshape Network Immunization Outcomes

Herd immunity is shaped not only by the infection capacity of a spreading epidemic or the contact structure of the hosting population, but also by how and under what circumstances individuals acquire immunity. Immunization strategies may interact with ongoing non-pharmaceutical interventions, which commonly aim to reduce social contact numbers. We demonstrate that these interactions can induce unexpectedly strong and counterintuitive effects on herd immunity. We explore these phenomena on spatially embedded contact networks and uncover a reversal in the relative effectiveness of disease- versus vaccine-induced immunization schemes, highlighting the average number of contacts as a critical determinant of emerging herd immunity. In sparse geometric networks with limited degree heterogeneity, uniform vaccination proves most effective; however, as average contact numbers increase, naturally acquired immunity ultimately becomes the better strategy. We show that this phenomenon may emerge not only in synthetic networks but also in real-world mixing networks, observed during non-pharmaceutical intervention periods across multiple states of the United States.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Higher-order adaptive behaviors outperform pairwise strategies in mitigating contagion dynamics

When exposed to a contagion phenomenon, individuals may respond to the perceived risk of infection by adopting behavioral changes, aiming to reduce their exposure or their risk of infecting others. The social cost of such adaptive behaviors and their impact on the contagion dynamics have been investigated in pairwise networks, with binary interactions driving both contagion and risk perception. However, contagion and adaptive mechanisms can also be driven by group (higher-order) interactions. Here, we consider several adaptive behaviors triggered by awareness of risk perceived through higher-order and pairwise interactions, and we compare their impact on pairwise and higher-order contagion processes. By numerical simulations and a mean-field analytic approach, we show that adaptive behaviors driven by higher-order information are more effective in limiting the spread of a contagion, than similar mechanisms based on pairwise information. Meanwhile, they also entail a lower social cost, measured as the reduction of the intensity of interactions in the population. Indeed, adaptive mechanisms based on higher-order information lead to a heterogeneous risk perception within the population, producing a higher alert on nodes with large hyperdegree (i.e., participating in many groups), on their neighborhoods, and on large groups. This in turn prevents the spreading process to exploit the properties of these nodes and groups, which tend to drive and sustain the dynamics in the absence of adaptive behaviors.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Adaptive behaviors neutralize bistable explosive transitions in higher-order contagion

During contagion phenomena, individuals perceiving a risk of infection commonly adapt their behavior and reduce their exposure. The effects of such adaptive mechanisms have been studied for processes in which pairwise interactions drive contagion. However, contagion and the perception of infection risk can also involve ("higher-order") group interactions, leading potentially to new phenomenology. How adaptive behavior resulting from risk perception affects higher-order processes remains an open question. Here, we consider the impact of several risk-based adaptive behaviors on pairwise and higher-order contagion processes, using numerical simulations and an analytical mean-field approach. For pairwise contagion, adaptive mechanisms based on local (pairwise or group-based) risk perception impact only the endemic state, without affecting the epidemic phase transition. For higher-order contagion processes, instead, the adaptivity defuses the impact of non-linear group interactions: this reduces or even completely suppresses the parameter range in which bistability is possible, effectively transforming a higher-order contagion process into a pairwise one.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Multiscale patterns of migration flows in Austria: regionalization, administrative barriers, and urban-rural divides

Migration is central in various societal problems related to socioeconomic development. While much of the existing research has focused on international migration, migration patterns within a single country remain relatively unexplored. In this work we study internal migration patterns in Austria for a period of over 20 years, obtained from open and high-granularity administrative records. We employ inferential network methods to characterize the flows between municipalities and extract their clustering according to similar target and destination rates. Our methodology reveals significant deviations from commonly assumed relocation patterns modeled by the gravity law. At the same time, we observe unexpected biases of internal migrations that leads to less frequent movements across boundaries at both district and state levels than predictions suggest. This leads to significant regionalization of migration at multiple geographical scales and augmented division between urban and rural areas. These patterns appear to be remarkably persistent across decades of migration data, demonstrating systematic limitations of conventionally used gravity models in migration studies. Our approach presents a robust methodology that can be used to improve such evaluations, and can reveal new phenomena in migration networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

When Dialects Collide: How Socioeconomic Mixing Affects Language Use

The socioeconomic background of people and how they use standard forms of language are not independent, as demonstrated in various sociolinguistic studies. However, the extent to which these correlations may be influenced by the mixing of people from different socioeconomic classes remains relatively unexplored from a quantitative perspective. In this work we leverage geotagged tweets and transferable computational methods to map deviations from standard English on a large scale, in seven thousand administrative areas of England and Wales. We combine these data with high-resolution income maps to assign a proxy socioeconomic indicator to home-located users. Strikingly, across eight metropolitan areas we find a consistent pattern suggesting that the more different socioeconomic classes mix, the less interdependent the frequency of their departures from standard grammar and their income become. Further, we propose an agent-based model of linguistic variety adoption that sheds light on the mechanisms that produce the observations seen in the data.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Initialisation and Network Effects in Decentralised Federated Learning

Fully decentralised federated learning enables collaborative training of individual machine learning models on a distributed network of communicating devices while keeping the training data localised on each node. This approach avoids central coordination, enhances data privacy and eliminates the risk of a single point of failure. Our research highlights that the effectiveness of decentralised federated learning is significantly influenced by the network topology of connected devices and the learning models' initial conditions. We propose a strategy for uncoordinated initialisation of the artificial neural networks based on the distribution of eigenvector centralities of the underlying communication network, leading to a radically improved training efficiency. Additionally, our study explores the scaling behaviour and the choice of environmental parameters under our proposed initialisation strategy. This work paves the way for more efficient and scalable artificial neural network training in a distributed and uncoordinated environment, offering a deeper understanding of the intertwining roles of network structure and learning dynamics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Epidemic-induced local awareness behavior inferred from surveys and genetic sequence data

Behavior-disease models suggest that pandemics can be contained cost-effectively if individuals take preventive actions when disease prevalence rises among their close contacts. However, assessing local awareness behavior in real-world datasets remains a challenge. Through the analysis of mutation patterns in clinical genetic sequence data, we propose an efficient approach to quantify the impact of local awareness by identifying superspreading events and assigning containment scores to them. We validate the proposed containment score as a proxy for local awareness in simulation experiments, and find that it was correlated positively with policy stringency during the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, we observe a temporary drop in the containment score during the Omicron wave in the United Kingdom, matching a survey experiment we carried out in Hungary during the corresponding period of the pandemic. Our findings bring important insight into the field of awareness modeling through the analysis of large-scale genetic sequence data, one of the most promising data sources in epidemics research.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Behavioral response to mobile phone evacuation alerts

This study examines behavioral responses to mobile phone evacuation alerts during the February 2024 wildfires in Valparaíso, Chile. Using anonymized mobile network data from 580,000 devices, we analyze population movement following emergency SMS notifications. Results reveal three key patterns: (1) initial alerts trigger immediate evacuation responses with connectivity dropping by 80\% within 1.5 hours, while subsequent messages show diminishing effects; (2) substantial evacuation also occurs in non-warned areas, indicating potential transportation congestion; (3) socioeconomic disparities exist in evacuation timing, with high-income areas evacuating faster and showing less differentiation between warned and non-warned locations. Statistical modeling demonstrates socioeconomic variations in both evacuation decision rates and recovery patterns. These findings inform emergency communication strategies for climate-driven disasters, highlighting the need for targeted alerts, socioeconomically calibrated messaging, and staged evacuation procedures to enhance public safety during crises.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Epidemic paradox induced by awareness driven network dynamics

We study stationary epidemic processes in scale-free networks with local awareness behavior adopted by only susceptible, only infected, or all nodes. We find that while the epidemic size in the susceptible-aware and the all-aware models scales linearly with the network size, the scaling becomes sublinear in the infected-aware model. Hence, fewer aware nodes may reduce the epidemic size more effectively; a phenomenon reminiscent of Braess's paradox. We present numerical and theoretical analysis, and highlight the role of influential nodes and their disassortativity to raise epidemic awareness.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Measuring and Modeling Bursty Human Phenomena

Bursty dynamics characterizes systems that evolve through short active periods of several events, which are separated by long periods of inactivity. Systems with such temporal heterogeneities are not only found in nature but also include examples from most aspects of human dynamics. In this Chapter, we briefly introduce such bursty phenomena by first walking through the most prominent observations of bursty human behavior. We then introduce several conventional measures that have been developed for characterizing bursty phenomena. Finally, we discuss the fundamental modeling directions proposed to understand the emergence of burstiness in human dynamics through the assumption of task prioritization, temporal correlations, and external factors. This Chapter is only a concise introduction to the field. Still, it provides the most important references, which will help interested readers to learn in depth the ever-growing research area of bursty human dynamics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Competition between simple and complex contagion on temporal networks

Behavioral adoptions are influenced by peers in different ways. While some individuals may change after a single incoming influence, others need multiple cumulated attempts. These two mechanism, known as the simple and the complex contagions, often occur together in social phenomena alongside personal factors determining individual adoptions. Here we aim to identify which of these contagion mechanism dominate a spreading process propagated by time-varying interactions. We consider three types of spreading scenarios: ones pre-dominated by simple or complex contagion, and mixed dynamics where the dominant mechanism changes during the unfolding of the spreading process. We propose different methods to analytically identify the transitions between these three scenarios and compare them with numerical simulations. This work offers new insights into social contagion dynamics on temporal networks, without assuming prior knowledge about individual's contagion mechanism driving their adoption decisions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

One rule does not fit all: deviations from universality in human mobility modeling

The accurate modeling of individual movement in cities has significant implications for policy decisions across various sectors. Existing research emphasizes the universality of human mobility, positing that simple models can capture population-level movements. However, population-level accuracy does not guarantee consistent performance across all individuals. By overlooking individual differences, universality laws may accurately describe certain groups while less precisely representing others, resulting in aggregate accuracy from a balance of discrepancies. Using large-scale mobility data, we assess individual-level accuracy of a universal model, the Exploration and Preferential Return (EPR), by examining deviations from expected behavior in two scaling laws - one related to exploration and the other to return patterns. Our findings reveal that, while the model can describe population-wide movement patterns, it displays widespread deviations linked to individuals' behavioral traits, socioeconomic status, and lifestyles, contradicting model assumptions like non-bursty exploration and preferential return. Specifically, individuals poorly represented by the EPR model tend to visit routine locations in sequences, exploring rarely but in a bursty manner when they do. Among socioeconomic factors, income most strongly correlates with significant deviations. Consequently, spatial inhomogeneity emerges in model accuracy, with lower performance concentrated in urbanized, densely populated areas, underscoring policy implications. Our results show that emphasizing population-wide models can propagate socioeconomic inequalities by poorly representing vulnerable population sectors.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

A Comparative Analysis of Wealth Index Predictions in Africa between three Multi-Source Inference Models

Poverty map inference has become a critical focus of research, utilizing both traditional and modern techniques, ranging from regression models to convolutional neural networks applied to tabular data, satellite imagery, and networks. While much attention has been given to validating models during the training phase, the final predictions have received less scrutiny. In this study, we analyze the International Wealth Index (IWI) predicted by Lee and Braithwaite (2022) and Espín-Noboa et al. (2023), alongside the Relative Wealth Index (RWI) inferred by Chi et al. (2022), across six Sub-Saharan African countries. Our analysis reveals trends and discrepancies in wealth predictions between these models. In particular, significant and unexpected discrepancies between the predictions of Lee and Braithwaite and Espín-Noboa et al., even after accounting for differences in training data. In contrast, the shape of the wealth distributions predicted by Espín-Noboa et al. and Chi et al. are more closely aligned, suggesting similar levels of skewness. These findings raise concerns about the validity of certain models and emphasize the importance of rigorous audits for wealth prediction algorithms used in policy-making. Continuous validation and refinement are essential to ensure the reliability of these models, particularly when they inform poverty alleviation strategies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Evacuation patterns and socioeconomic stratification in the context of wildfires in Chile

Climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of wildfires, leading to increased evacuation events that disrupt human mobility and socioeconomic structures. These disruptions affect access to resources, employment, and housing, amplifying existing vulnerabilities within communities. Understanding the interplay between climate change, wildfires, evacuation patterns, and socioeconomic factors is crucial for developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. To contribute to this challenge, we use high-definition mobile phone records to analyse evacuation patterns during the wildfires in Valparaíso, Chile, that took place between February 2-3, 2024. This data allows us to track the movements of individuals in the disaster area, providing insight into how people respond to large-scale evacuations in the context of severe wildfires. We apply a causal inference approach that combines regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences methodologies to observe evacuation behaviours during wildfires, with a focus on socioeconomic stratification. This approach allows us to isolate the impact of the wildfires on different socioeconomic groups by comparing the evacuation patterns of affected populations before and after the event, while accounting for underlying trends and discontinuities at the threshold of the disaster. We find that many people spent nights away from home, with those in the lowest socioeconomic segment stayed away the longest. In general, people reduced their travel distance during the evacuation, and the lowest socioeconomic group moved the least. Initially, movements became more random, as people sought refuge in a rush, but eventually gravitated towards areas with similar socioeconomic status. Our results show that socioeconomic differences play a role in evacuation dynamics, providing useful insights for response planning.

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