arXiv subjects

M. Amin Rahimian

Publications and source records attributed to M. Amin Rahimian.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Inferring epidemic dynamics using Gaussian process emulation of agent-based simulations

Computational models help decision makers understand epidemic dynamics to optimize public health interventions. Agent-based simulation of disease spread in synthetic populations allows us to compare and contrast different effects across identical populations or to investigate the effect of interventions keeping every other factor constant between ``digital twins''. FRED (A Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics) is an agent-based modeling system with a geo-spatial perspective using a synthetic population that is constructed based on the U.S. census data. In this paper, we show how Gaussian process regression can be used on FRED-synthesized data to infer the differing spatial dispersion of the epidemic dynamics for two disease conditions that start from the same initial conditions and spread among identical populations. Our results showcase the utility of agent-based simulation frameworks such as FRED for inferring differences between conditions where controlling for all confounding factors for such comparisons is next to impossible without synthetic data.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2023

Estimating Treatment Effects Using Costly Simulation Samples from a Population-Scale Model of Opioid Use Disorder

Large-scale models require substantial computational resources for analysis and studying treatment conditions. Specifically, estimating treatment effects using simulations may require a lot of infeasible resources to allocate at every treatment condition. Therefore, it is essential to develop efficient methods to allocate computational resources for estimating treatment effects. Agent-based simulation allows us to generate highly realistic simulation samples. FRED (A Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics) is an agent-based modeling system with a geospatial perspective using a synthetic population constructed based on the U.S. census data. Given its synthetic population, FRED simulations present a baseline for comparable results from different treatment conditions and treatment conditions. In this paper, we show three other methods for estimating treatment effects. In the first method, we resort to brute-force allocation, where all treatment conditions have an equal number of samples with a relatively large number of simulation runs. In the second method, we try to reduce the number of simulation runs by customizing individual samples required for each treatment effect based on the width of confidence intervals around the mean estimates. In the third method, we use a regression model, which allows us to learn across the treatment conditions such that simulation samples allocated for a treatment condition will help better estimate treatment effects in other conditions. We show that the regression-based methods result in a comparable estimate of treatment effects with less computational resources. The reduced variability and faster convergence of model-based estimates come at the cost of increased bias, and the bias-variance trade-off can be controlled by adjusting the number of model parameters (e.g., including higher-order interaction terms in the regression model).

cs.MA↗

arXiv2023

Long ties accelerate noisy threshold-based contagions

Network structure can affect when and how widely new ideas, products, and behaviors are adopted. In widely-used models of biological contagion, interventions that randomly rewire edges (on average making them "longer") accelerate spread. However, there are other models relevant to social contagion, such as those motivated by myopic best-response in games with strategic complements, in which an individual's behavior is described by a threshold number of adopting neighbors above which adoption occurs (i.e., complex contagions). Recent work has argued that highly clustered, rather than random, networks facilitate spread of these complex contagions. Here we show that minor modifications to this model, which make it more realistic, reverse this result, thereby harmonizing qualitative facts about how network structure affects contagion. To model the trade-off between long and short edges we analyze the rate of spread over networks that are the union of circular lattices and random graphs on $n$ nodes. Allowing for noise in adoption decisions (i.e., adoptions below threshold) to occur with order ${n}^{-1/θ}$ probability along at least some "short" cycle edges is enough to ensure that random rewiring accelerates the spread of a noisy threshold-$θ$ contagion. This conclusion also holds under partial but frequent enough rewiring and when adoption decisions are reversible but infrequently so, as well as in high-dimensional lattice structures that facilitate faster-expanding contagions. Simulations illustrate the robustness of these results to several variations on this noisy best-response behavior. Hypothetical interventions that randomly rewire existing edges or add random edges (versus adding "short", triad-closing edges) in hundreds of empirical social networks reduce time to spread.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Influence of Repetition through Limited Recall

Decision makers who receive many signals are subject to imperfect recall. This is especially important when learning from feeds that aggregate messages from many senders on social media platforms. In this paper, we study a stylized model of learning from feeds and highlight the inefficiencies that arise due to imperfect recall. In our model, failure to recall a specific message comes from the accumulation of messages which creates interference. We characterize the influence of each sender according to the rate at which she sends messages and to the strength of interference. Our analysis indicates that imperfect recall not only leads to double-counting and extreme opinions in finite populations, but also impedes the ability of the receiver to learn the true state as the population of the senders increases. We estimate the strength of interference in an online experiment where participants are exposed to (non-informative) repeated messages and they need to estimate the opinion of others. Results show that interference plays a significant role and is weaker among participants who disagree with each other. Our work has implication for the diffusion of information in networks, especially when it is false because it is shared and repeated more than true information.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Seeding with Costly Network Information

We study the task of selecting $k$ nodes, in a social network of size $n$, to seed a diffusion with maximum expected spread size, under the independent cascade model with cascade probability $p$. Most of the previous work on this problem (known as influence maximization) focuses on efficient algorithms to approximate the optimal seed set with provable guarantees given knowledge of the entire network; however, obtaining full knowledge of the network is often very costly in practice. Here we develop algorithms and guarantees for approximating the optimal seed set while bounding how much network information is collected. First, we study the achievable guarantees using a sublinear influence sample size. We provide an almost tight approximation algorithm with an additive $εn$ loss and show that the squared dependence of sample size on $k$ is asymptotically optimal when $ε$ is small. We then propose a probing algorithm that queries edges from the graph and use them to find a seed set with the same almost tight approximation guarantee. We also provide a matching (up to logarithmic factors) lower-bound on the required number of edges. This algorithm is implementable in field surveys or in crawling online networks. Our probing takes $p$ as an input which may not be known in advance, and we show how to down-sample the probed edges to match the best estimate of $p$ if they are collected with a higher probability. Finally, we test our algorithms on an empirical network to quantify the tradeoff between the cost of obtaining more refined network information and the benefit of the added information for guiding improved seeding strategies.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

When social influence promotes the wisdom of crowds

Whether, and under what conditions, groups exhibit "crowd wisdom" has been a major focus of research across the social and computational sciences. Much of this work has focused on the role of social influence in promoting the wisdom of the crowd versus leading the crowd astray, resulting in conflicting conclusions about how the social network structure determines the impact of social influence. Here, we demonstrate that it is not enough to consider the network structure in isolation. Using theoretical analysis, numerical simulation, and reanalysis of four experimental datasets (totaling 2,885 human subjects), we find that the wisdom of crowds critically depends on the interaction between (i) the centralization of the social influence network and (ii) the distribution of the initial, individual estimates. By adopting a framework that integrates both the structure of the social influence and the distribution of the initial estimates, we bring previously conflicting results under one theoretical framework and clarify the effects of social influence on the wisdom of crowds.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Bayesian Decision Making in Groups is Hard

We study the computations that Bayesian agents undertake when exchanging opinions over a network. The agents act repeatedly on their private information and take myopic actions that maximize their expected utility according to a fully rational posterior belief. We show that such computations are NP-hard for two natural utility functions: one with binary actions, and another where agents reveal their posterior beliefs. In fact, we show that distinguishing between posteriors that are concentrated on different states of the world is NP-hard. Therefore, even approximating the Bayesian posterior beliefs is hard. We also describe a natural search algorithm to compute agents' actions, which we call elimination of impossible signals, and show that if the network is transitive, the algorithm can be modified to run in polynomial time.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Reasoning in Bayesian Opinion Exchange Networks Is PSPACE-Hard

We study the Bayesian model of opinion exchange of fully rational agents arranged on a network. In this model, the agents receive private signals that are indicative of an unkown state of the world. Then, they repeatedly announce the state of the world they consider most likely to their neighbors, at the same time updating their beliefs based on their neighbors' announcements. This model is extensively studied in economics since the work of Aumann (1976) and Geanakoplos and Polemarchakis (1982). It is known that the agents eventually agree with high probability on any network. It is often argued that the computations needed by agents in this model are difficult, but prior to our results there was no rigorous work showing this hardness. We show that it is PSPACE-hard for the agents to compute their actions in this model. Furthermore, we show that it is equally difficult even to approximate an agent's posterior: It is PSPACE-hard to distinguish between the posterior being almost entirely concentrated on one state of the world or another.

cs.CC↗

arXiv2017

Spectral Moments of Random Matrices with a Rank-One Pattern of Variances

Let $\mathbf{a}_{ij}$, $1\leq i\leq j\leq n$, be independent random variables and $\mathbf{a}_{ji}=\mathbf{a}_{ij}$, for all $i,j$. Suppose that every $\mathbf{a}_{ij}$ is bounded, has zero mean, and its variance is given by $σ_{i}σ_{j}$, for a given sequence of positive real numbers $Ψ=\{σ_{i} , i\in\mathbb{N}\}$. Hence, the matrix of variances $V_n=\left( \mbox{Var}( \mathbf{a}_{ij}) \right)_{i,j=1}^n$ has rank one for all $n$. We show that the empirical spectral distribution of the symmetric random matrix $\mathbf{A}_n(Ψ)$ $ =$ $ \left( \mathbf{a}_{ij}/\sqrt{n}\right)_{i,j=1}^n$ converges weakly (and with probability one) to a deterministic limiting spectral distribution which we fully characterize by providing closed-form expressions for its limiting spectral moments in terms of the sequence $Ψ$. Furthermore, we propose a hierarchy of semidefinite programs to compute upper and lower bound on the expected spectral norm of $\mathbf{A}_n$, for both finite $n$ and the limit $n\to\infty$.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Moment-Based Spectral Analysis of Random Graphs with Given Expected Degrees

In this paper, we analyze the limiting spectral distribution of the adjacency matrix of a random graph ensemble, proposed by Chung and Lu, in which a given expected degree sequence $\overline{w}_n^{^{T}} = (w^{(n)}_1,\ldots,w^{(n)}_n)$ is prescribed on the ensemble. Let $\mathbf{a}_{i,j} =1$ if there is an edge between the nodes $\{i,j\}$ and zero otherwise, and consider the normalized random adjacency matrix of the graph ensemble: $\mathbf{A}_n$ $=$ $ [\mathbf{a}_{i,j}/\sqrt{n}]_{i,j=1}^{n}$. The empirical spectral distribution of $\mathbf{A}_n$ denoted by $\mathbf{F}_n(\mathord{\cdot})$ is the empirical measure putting a mass $1/n$ at each of the $n$ real eigenvalues of the symmetric matrix $\mathbf{A}_n$. Under some technical conditions on the expected degree sequence, we show that with probability one, $\mathbf{F}_n(\mathord{\cdot})$ converges weakly to a deterministic distribution $F(\mathord{\cdot})$. Furthermore, we fully characterize this distribution by providing explicit expressions for the moments of $F(\mathord{\cdot})$. We apply our results to well-known degree distributions, such as power-law and exponential. The asymptotic expressions of the spectral moments in each case provide significant insights about the bulk behavior of the eigenvalue spectrum.

math.ST↗

arXiv2016

Digraphs with Distinguishable Dynamics under the Multi-Agent Agreement Protocol

In this work, the ability to distinguish digraphs from the output response of some observing agents in a multi-agent network under the agreement protocol has been studied. Given a fixed observation point, it is desired to find sufficient graphical conditions under which the failure of a set of edges in the network information flow digraph is distinguishable from another set. When the latter is empty, this corresponds to the detectability of the former link set given the response of the observing agent. In developing the results, a powerful extension of the all-minors matrix tree theorem in algebraic graph theory is proved which relates the minors of the transformed Laplacian of a directed graph to the number and length of the shortest paths between its vertices. The results reveal an intricate relationship between the ability to distinguish the responses of a healthy and a faulty multi-agent network and the inter-nodal paths in their information flow digraphs. The results have direct implications for the operation and design of multi-agent systems subject to multiple link losses. Simulations and examples are presented to illustrate the analytic findings.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2016

Structural Controllability of Multi-Agent Networks: Robustness against Simultaneous Failures

In this paper, structural controllability of a leader-follower multi-agent system with multiple leaders is studied from a graph-theoretic point of view. The problem of preservation of structural controllability under simultaneous failures in both the communication links and the agents is investigated. The effects of the loss of agents and communication links on the controllability of an information flow graph are previously studied. In this work, the corresponding results are exploited to introduce some useful indices and importance measures that help characterize and quantify the role of individual links and agents in the controllability of the overall network. Existing results are then extended by considering the effects of losses in both links and agents at the same time. To this end, the concepts of joint (r,s)-controllability and joint t-controllability are introduced as quantitative measures of reliability for a multi-agent system, and their important properties are investigated. Lastly, the class of jointly critical digraphs is introduced and it is stated that if a digraph is jointly critical, then joint t-controllability is a necessary and sufficient condition for remaining controllable following the failure of any set of links and agents, with cardinality less than t. Various examples are exploited throughout the paper to elaborate on the analytical findings.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2016

Learning without recall in directed circles and rooted trees

This work investigates the case of a network of agents that attempt to learn some unknown state of the world amongst the finitely many possibilities. At each time step, agents all receive random, independently distributed private signals whose distributions are dependent on the unknown state of the world. However, it may be the case that some or any of the agents cannot distinguish between two or more of the possible states based only on their private observations, as when several states result in the same distribution of the private signals. In our model, the agents form some initial belief (probability distribution) about the unknown state and then refine their beliefs in accordance with their private observations, as well as the beliefs of their neighbors. An agent learns the unknown state when her belief converges to a point mass that is concentrated at the true state. A rational agent would use the Bayes' rule to incorporate her neighbors' beliefs and own private signals over time. While such repeated applications of the Bayes' rule in networks can become computationally intractable, in this paper, we show that in the canonical cases of directed star, circle or path networks and their combinations, one can derive a class of memoryless update rules that replicate that of a single Bayesian agent but replace the self beliefs with the beliefs of the neighbors. This way, one can realize an exponentially fast rate of learning similar to the case of Bayesian (fully rational) agents. The proposed rules are a special case of the Learning without Recall.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2016

Distributed Estimation and Learning over Heterogeneous Networks

We consider several estimation and learning problems that networked agents face when making decisions given their uncertainty about an unknown variable. Our methods are designed to efficiently deal with heterogeneity in both size and quality of the observed data, as well as heterogeneity over time (intermittence). The goal of the studied aggregation schemes is to efficiently combine the observed data that is spread over time and across several network nodes, accounting for all the network heterogeneities. Moreover, we require no form of coordination beyond the local neighborhood of every network agent or sensor node. The three problems that we consider are (i) maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown given initial data sets, (ii) learning the true model parameter from streams of data that the agents receive intermittently over time, and (iii) minimum variance estimation of a complete sufficient statistic from several data points that the networked agents collect over time. In each case we rely on an aggregation scheme to combine the observations of all agents; moreover, when the agents receive streams of data over time, we modify the update rules to accommodate the most recent observations. In every case, we demonstrate the efficiency of our algorithms by proving convergence to the globally efficient estimators given the observations of all agents. We supplement these results by investigating the rate of convergence and providing finite-time performance guarantees.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2016

Bayesian Learning without Recall

We analyze a model of learning and belief formation in networks in which agents follow Bayes rule yet they do not recall their history of past observations and cannot reason about how other agents' beliefs are formed. They do so by making rational inferences about their observations which include a sequence of independent and identically distributed private signals as well as the actions of their neighboring agents at each time. Successive applications of Bayes rule to the entire history of past observations lead to forebodingly complex inferences: due to lack of knowledge about the global network structure, and unavailability of private observations, as well as third party interactions preceding every decision. Such difficulties make Bayesian updating of beliefs an implausible mechanism for social learning. To address these complexities, we consider a Bayesian without Recall model of inference. On the one hand, this model provides a tractable framework for analyzing the behavior of rational agents in social networks. On the other hand, this model also provides a behavioral foundation for the variety of non-Bayesian update rules in the literature. We present the implications of various choices for the structure of the action space and utility functions for such agents and investigate the properties of learning, convergence, and consensus in special cases.

math.ST↗

arXiv2016

Bayesian Heuristics for Group Decisions

We propose a model of inference and heuristic decision-making in groups that is rooted in the Bayes rule but avoids the complexities of rational inference in partially observed environments with incomplete information, which are characteristic of group interactions. Our model is also consistent with a dual-process psychological theory of thinking: the group members behave rationally at the initiation of their interactions with each other (the slow and deliberative mode); however, in the ensuing decision epochs, they rely on a heuristic that replicates their experiences from the first stage (the fast automatic mode). We specialize this model to a group decision scenario where private observations are received at the beginning, and agents aim to take the best action given the aggregate observations of all group members. We study the implications of the information structure together with the properties of the probability distributions which determine the structure of the so-called "Bayesian heuristics" that the agents follow in our model. We also analyze the group decision outcomes in two classes of linear action updates and log-linear belief updates and show that many inefficiencies arise in group decisions as a result of repeated interactions between individuals, leading to overconfident beliefs as well as choice-shifts toward extremes. Nevertheless, balanced regular structures demonstrate a measure of efficiency in terms of aggregating the initial information of individuals. These results not only verify some well-known insights about group decision-making but also complement these insights by revealing additional mechanistic interpretations for the group declension-process, as well as psychological and cognitive intuitions about the group interaction model.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2016

Controllability Gramian Spectra of Random Networks

We propose a theoretical framework to study the eigenvalue spectra of the controllability Gramian of systems with random state matrices, such as networked systems with a random graph structure. Using random matrix theory, we provide expressions for the moments of the eigenvalue distribution of the controllability Gramian. These moments can then be used to derive useful properties of the eigenvalue distribution of the Gramian (in some cases, even closed-form expressions for the distribution). We illustrate this framework by considering system matrices derived from common random graph and matrix ensembles, such as the Wigner ensemble, the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (GOE), and random regular graphs. Subsequently, we illustrate how the eigenvalue distribution of the Gramian can be used to draw conclusions about the energy required to control random system.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2014

Detection and Isolation of Failures in Linear Multi-Agent Networks

In this paper the focus is on the relationship between the occurrence of failures in a (directed or undirected) network of linear single integrator agents and the presence of jump discontinuities in the derivatives of the network output. Based on this relationship, an algorithm for sensor placement is proposed, which enables the designer to detect and isolate any link failures across the network, based on the jump discontinuities observed by the sensor nodes. These results are explained through elaborative examples and computer experiments.

eess.SY↗