arXiv subjects

M. Bonamente

Publications and source records attributed to M. Bonamente.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Review: A new method for estimation and use of systematic errors in Poisson regression

A new method for including systematic errors in the regression with Poisson data is reviewed in this contribution, with emphasis on applications to astronomical spectra. The method consists of generalizing the usual Poisson log-likelihood, known as the Cash statistic $C_{min}$, and its associated likelihood-ratio statistic $\Delta C$, to include the presence of systematic sources of uncertainty. Advantages of this new method include its modeling simplicity and its ability to assess both the level of systematics and the goodness of fit at the same time, including for a nested model component.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Maximum-likelihood regression with systematic errors for astronomy and the physical sciences: II. Hypothesis testing of nested model components for Poisson data

A novel model of systematic errors for the regression of Poisson data is applied to hypothesis testing of nested model components with the introduction of a generalization of the $\Delta C$ statistic that applies in the presence of systematic errors. This paper shows that the null-hypothesis parent distribution of this $\Delta C_{sys}$ statistic can be obtained either through a simple numerical procedure, or in a closed form by making certain simplifying assumptions. It is found that the effects of systematic errors on the test statistic can be significant, and therefore the inclusion of sources of systematic errors is crucial for the assessment of the significance of nested model component in practical applications. The methods proposed in this paper provide a simple and accurate means of including systematic errors for hypothesis testing of nested model components in a variety of applications.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2023

Linear regression for Poisson count data: A new semi-analytical method with applications to COVID-19 events

This paper presents the application of a new semi-analytical method of linear regression for Poisson count data to COVID-19 events. The regression is based on the Bonamente and Spence (2022) maximum-likelihood solution for the best-fit parameters, and this paper introduces a simple analytical solution for the covariance matrix that completes the problem of linear regression with Poisson data. The analytical nature for both parameter estimates and their covariance matrix is made possible by a convenient factorization of the linear model proposed by J. Scargle (2013). The method makes use of the asymptotic properties of the Fisher information matrix, whose inverse provides the covariance matrix. The combination of simple analytical methods to obtain both the maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters, and their covariance matrix, constitute a new and convenient method for the linear regression of Poisson-distributed count data, which are of common occurrence across a variety of fields. A comparison between this new linear regression method and two alternative methods often used for the regression of count data -- the ordinary least-square regression and the $\chi^2$ regression -- is provided with the application of these methods to the analysis of recent COVID-19 count data. The paper also discusses the relative advantages and disadvantages among these methods for the linear regression of Poisson count data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

A search for the missing baryons with X--ray absorption lines towards the blazar 1ES 1553+113

This paper presents an analysis of XMM X--ray spectra of the quasar 1ES 1553+113, in search for absorption lines from the intervening warm--hot intergalactic medium. A search for OVII, OVIII and NeIX resonance absorption lines was performed at eight fixed redshifts that feature OVI or HI broad Lyman--$\alpha$ absorption lines that were previously detected from HST data. The search yielded one possible detection of OVII at a redshift z=0.1877 with an OVI prior, with a statistical significance that is equivalent to a 2.6-$\sigma$ confidence level. The spectra were also stacked at the wavelengths of the expected redshifted OVII and OVIII lines, but the analysis did not reveal evidence for the presence of additional X--ray absorbing WHIM. Moreover, the spectra were used to investigate two putative OVII absorption lines that were detected serendipitously in an earlier analysis of the same data by F. Nicastro and collaborators. The paper also presents a comprehensive statistical framework for cosmological inferences from the analysis of absorption lines, which makes use of cosmological simulations for the joint probability distributions of FUV and X--ray ions. Accordingly, we conclude that the new possible OVII absorption at z=0.1877 is consistent with a contribution from the hot WHIM to the baryon density in an amount of $\Omega_{WHIM,X}/\Omega_b = 44\pm22$\%. However, there are large systematic uncertainties associated with the temperature and abundances of the absorbers, and only a larger sample of X-ray sources can provide an accurate determination of the cosmological density of the WHIM.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Systematic errors in the maximum likelihood regression of Poisson count data: introducing the overdispersed chi-square distribution

This paper presents a new method to estimate systematic errors in the maximum-likelihood regression of count data. The method is applicable in particular to X-ray spectra in situations where the Poisson log-likelihood, or the Cash goodness-of-fit statistic, indicate a poor fit that is attributable to overdispersion of the data. Overdispersion in Poisson data is treated as an intrinsic model variance that can be estimated from the best-fit model, using the maximum-likelihood Cmin statistic. The paper also studies the effects of such systematic errors on the Delta C likelihood-ratio statistic, which can be used to test for the presence of a nested model component in the regression of Poisson count data. The paper introduces an overdispersed chi-square distribution that results from the convolution of a chi-square distribution that models the usual Delta C statistic, and a zero-mean Gaussian that models the overdispersion in the data. This is proposed as the distribution of choice for the Delta C statistic in the presence of systematic errors. The methods presented in this paper are applied to XMM-Newton data of the quasar 1ES 1553+113 that were used to detect absorption lines from an intervening warm-hot intergalactic medium (WHIM). This case study illustrates how systematic errors can be estimated from the data, and their effect on the detection of a nested component, such as an absorption line, with the Delta C statistic.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2023

Cosmic metal invaders: Intergalactic OVII as a tracer of the warm-hot intergalactic medium within cosmic filaments in the EAGLE simulation

The current observational status of the hot (log T(K) > 5.5) warm-hot intergalactic medium (WHIM) remains incomplete. While recent observations from stacking large numbers of Cosmic Web filaments have yielded statistically significant detections, direct measurements of single objects remain scarce. The lack of such a sample currently prevents a robust analysis of the cosmic baryon content composed of the hot WHIM, which could help solve the cosmological missing baryons problem. To improve the search for the missing baryons, we used the EAGLE simulation. Our aim is to understand the metal enrichment and distribution of highly ionised metals in the Cosmic Web. We detected the filaments by applying the Bisous formalism to the simulated galaxies, and characterised the spatial distributions as well as mass and volume fractions of the filamentary oxygen and OVII. We then constructed OVII column density maps and determined their detectability with Athena X-IFU. However, the oxygen and OVII number densities drop fast beyond the virial radii of haloes, falling below detectable levels at 700 kpc. Thus, only ~1% of the filament volumes are filled with OVII at detectable densities. This non-homogeneous distribution of the OVII complicates its usage for tracing the missing baryons. Instead, OVII forms narrow envelopes around haloes. This localised nature results in a low chance (10-20% per sight line) of detecting intergalactic OVII with Athena X-IFU within the SDSS catalogue of filaments. With future filament samples from the 4MOST survey, the chances increase up to a level of ~50%. Nonetheless, based on EAGLE results, this would not be enough to conclusively solve the missing baryon problem, as it would be limited to a few times the virial radii of haloes. Fortunately, the volumes around haloes are dense in hot WHIM, and tracing it could reduce the content of baryons still missing by ~25%.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

A WHIM origin for the soft excess emission in the Coma cluster

This paper provides a new analysis of ROSAT observations of the Coma cluster, to determine the amount of soft X--ray radiation in excess of the contribution from the hot intra--cluster medium. The re--analysis is made possible by a high--resolution study of the hot intra--cluster medium with the XMM-Newton and Planck telescopes out to the cluster's virial radius. The analysis confirms the original findings of a strong excess of soft X--ray radiation, which is likely to be of thermal origin. We find quantitative agreement between the detected soft excess and the physical characteristics of warm--hot intergalactic medium (WHIM) filaments seen in hydrodynamical simulations. We conclude that the most plausible explanation for the soft excess is the presence of $\sim 10$~Mpc--long filaments at $\log T(K)\simeq 6$, with a baryon overdensity $\sim 300$, converging towards the Coma cluster. This interpretation therefore provides support for the identification of the missing low--redshift baryons with WHIM filaments, as predicted by numerical simulations.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

Discovery of a multiphase OVI and OVII absorber in the circumgalactic/intergalactic transition region

The observational constraints on the baryon content of the WHIM rely almost entirely on FUV measurements. However, cosmological, hydrodynamical simulations predict strong correlations between the spatial distributions of FUV and X-ray absorbing WHIM. In this work we investigate this prediction by analyzing XMM-Newton X-ray counterparts of FUV-detected intergalactic OVI absorbers known from FUSE and HST/STIS data, and compare this information to the predictions of simulations. We study the X-ray absorption at the redshift of the only significantly detected OVI absorber in the TonS180 sightline's FUV spectrum, found at $z=0.04579\pm0.00001$. We characterize the spectral properties of the OVI-OVIII absorbers and explore the ionization processes behind the measured absorption. The observational results are compared to the predicted warm-hot gas properties in the EAGLE simulation to infer the physical conditions of the absorber. We detect both OVI and OVII absorption at a $5\sigma$ confidence level, whereas OVIII absorption is not detected. CIE modeling constrains the X-ray absorbing gas temperature to log$\,T_{CIE}$(K)$=6.22\pm0.05$ with a total hydrogen column density $N_H=5.8_{-2.2}^{+3.0}\times Z_{sun}/Z_{abs}\times10^{19}$ cm$^{-2}$. This model predicts an OVI column density consistent with that measured in the FUV, but our limits on the OVI line width indicate >90 % likelihood that the FUV-detected OVI arises from a different, cooler phase. We find that the observed absorber lies about a factor of two further away from the detected galaxies than is the case for similar systems in EAGLE. Understanding the abundance of the systems similar to the one considered in this work helps to define the landscape for WHIM searches with future X-ray telescopes.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2019

Distribution of the C statistic with applications to the sample mean of Poisson data

The C statistics, also known as the Cash statistic, is often used in astronomy for the analysis of low-count Poisson data. One of the challenges of the C statistic is that its probability distribution, under the null hypothesis that the data follow a parent model, is not known exactly. Such distribution is needed for model testing, namely to determine the acceptability of models and then to determine confidence intervals of model parameters. This is in contrast with the accurate knowledge, for Gaussian data, of the $χ^2$ statistic for any number of free parameters in the parent model. This paper presents an effort towards improving our understanding of the C statistic by studying (a) the distribution of for a fully specified model, (b) the distribution of $C_{min}$ resulting from a maximum-likelihood fit to a simple one-parameter constant model, i.e., a model that represents the sample mean of $N$ Poisson measurements, and (c) the distribution of the associated $ΔC$ statistic that is used for parameter estimation. The results confirm the expectation that, in the high-count limit, both statistics have the same mean and variance as a $χ^2$ statistic with same number of degrees of freedom. It is also found that, in the low-count regime, the expectation of the C statistic can be substantially lower than for a $χ^2$ distribution. These result have implications for hypothesis testing in the low-count Poisson regime that are also discussed in the paper. The paper makes use of recent X-ray observations of the astronomical source PG 1116+215 to illustrate the application of the C statistic to Poisson data. These measurements are also used to identify biases in the use of the $χ^2$ statistic for Poisson data, especially in the low-count regime.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2018

To be or not to be: hot WHIM absorption in the blazar PKS 2155-304 sight line?

The cosmological missing baryons at z<1 most likely hide in the hot (T$\gtrsim10^{5.5}$ K) phase of the Warm Hot Intergalactic Medium (WHIM). While the hot WHIM is hard to detect due to its high ionisation level, the warm (T$\lesssim10^{5.5}$ K) phase of the WHIM has been very robustly detected in the FUV band. We adopted the assumption that the hot and warm WHIM phases are co-located and thus used the FUV-detected warm WHIM as a tracer for the cosmologically interesting hot WHIM. We utilised the assumption by performing an X-ray follow-up in the sight line of a blazar PKS 2155-304 at the redshifts where previous FUV measurements of OVI, SiIV and BLA absorption have indicated the existence of the warm WHIM. We looked for the OVII He$α$ and OVIII Ly$α$ absorption lines, the most likely hot WHIM tracers. Despite of the very large exposure time ($\approx$ 1 Ms), the XMM-Newton/RGS1 data yielded no significant detection which corresponds to upper limits of $\log{N({\rm OVII})({\rm cm}^{-2}))} \le 14.5-15.2$ and $\log{N({\rm OVIII})({\rm cm}^{-2}))} \le 14.9-15.2$. An analysis of LETG/HRC data yielded consistent results. However, the LETG/ACIS data yielded a detection of an absorption line - like feature at $λ\approx$ 20 Å at simple one parameter uncertainty - based confidence level of 3.7 $σ$, consistently with several earlier LETG/ACIS reports. Given the high statistical quality of the RGS1 data, the possibility of RGS1 accidentally missing the true line at $λ\sim$ 20 Å is very low, 0.006%. Neglecting this, the LETG/ACIS detection can be interpreted as Ly$α$ transition of OVIII at one of the redshifts (z$\approx$ 0.054) of FUV-detected warm WHIM. Given the very convincing X-ray spectral evidence for and against the existence of the $λ\sim$ 20 Å feature, we cannot conclude whether or not it is a true astrophysical absorption line.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2017

Discovery of Galactic OIV and OV X-ray absorption due to transition temperature gas in the PKS 2155-304 spectrum

FUV observations have revealed the transition temperature gas (TTG; $\log{T({\mathrm{K}})}$ ~ 5), located in the lower Galactic halo and in the High Velocity Clouds. However, the corresponding X-ray absorption has so far remained mostly undetected. In order to make an improvement in this respect in Galactic X-ray absorption studies, we accumulated very deep (~3 Ms) spectra of the blazar PKS 2155-304 obtained with the spectrometers RGS1, RGS2, LETG/HRC and LETG/ACIS-S and studied the absorption lines due to the intervening Galactic components. The very high quality of the data and the coverage of important wavelengths with at least two independent instruments allowed us to reliably detect ten Galactic lines with better than 99.95% confidence. We discovered significant absorption from blended OIV transitions 1s-2p $^2$S (22.571 Å), 1s-2p $^2$P (22.741 Å) and 1s-2p $^2$D (22.777 Å), and from the OV transition 1s-2p (22.370 Å) from TTG at $\log{T({\mathrm{K}})} \thinspace = \thinspace 5.2\pm0.1$. A joint X-ray and FUV analysis indicated that photoionisation is negligible for this component and that the gas is in a cooling transition phase. However, the temperature is high enough that the column density ratio N(OIV)/N(OV) is not significantly different from that in collisional ionisation equilibrium (CIE). Under CIE we obtained $N_{\mathrm{OIV}}$= 3.6$\pm$2.0 $\times 10^{15}$ cm$^{-2}$, corresponding to $N_{\mathrm{H}}$ = 1.0$\pm$0.5 $\times 10^{19} \frac{Z_{\odot}}{Z_{\mathrm{TTG}}}$ cm$^{-2}$.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2017

Characterization of the warm--hot intergalactic medium near the Coma cluster through high--resolution spectroscopy of X Comae

We have analyzed all available archival XMM-Newton observations of X Comae, a bright X-ray quasar behind the Coma cluster, to study the properties of the warm-hot intergalactic medium in the vicinity of the nearest massive galaxy cluster. The RGS observations confirm the possible presence of a Ne IX K-alpha absorption line at the redshift of Coma, although with a limited statistical significance. This analysis is therefore in line with the earlier analysis by Takei et al. (2007) based on a sub-set of these data. Its large column density and optical depth, however, point to implausible conditions for the absorbing medium, thereby casting serious doubts to its reality. Chandra has never observed X Comae and therefore cannot provide additional information on this source. We combine upper limits to the presence of other X-ray absorption lines (notably from O VII and O VIII) at the redshift of Coma with positive measurements of the soft excess emission from Coma measured by ROSAT (Bonamente et al. 2003). The combination of emission from warm-hot gas at kT~1/4 keV and upper limits from absorption lines provide useful constraints on the density and the sightline length of the putative WHIM towards Coma. We conclude that the putative warm-hot medium towards Coma is consistent with expected properties, with a baryon overdensity >=10 and a sightline extent of order of tens of Mpc.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2016

Chandra Measurements of a Complete Sample of X-ray Luminous Galaxy Clusters: The Luminosity-Mass Relation

We present the results of work involving a statistically complete sample of 34 galaxy clusters, in the redshift range 0.15$\le$z$\le$0.3 observed with $Chandra$. We investigate the luminosity-mass ($LM$) relation for the cluster sample, with the masses obtained via a full hydrostatic mass analysis. We utilise a method to fully account for selection biases when modeling the $LM$ relation, and find that the $LM$ relation is significantly different than the relation modelled when not account for selection effects. We find that the luminosity of our clusters is 2.2$\pm$0.4 times higher (when accounting for selection effects) than the average for a given mass, its mass is 30% lower than the population average for a given luminosity. Equivalently, using the $LM$ relation measured from this sample without correcting for selection biases would lead to the underestimation by 40% of the average mass of a cluster with a given luminosity. Comparing the hydrostatic masses to mass estimates determined from the $Y_{X}$ parameter, we find that they are entirely consistent, irrespective of the dynamical state of the cluster.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2016

A possible Chandra and Hubble Space Telescope detection of extragalactic WHIM towards PG 1116+215

(Abridged) We have analyzed Chandra LETG and XMM-Newton RGS spectra towards the z=0.177 quasar PG 1116+215, a sightline that is rendered particularly interesting by the HST detection of several OVI and HI broad Lyman-alpha absorption lines that may be associated with the warm-hot intergalactic medium. We performed a search for resonance K-alpha absorption lines from OVII and OVIII at the redshifts of the detected far-ultraviolet lines. We detected an absorption line in the Chandra spectra at 5.2 sigma confidence level at wavelengths corresponding to OVIII K-alpha at z=0.0911+-0.0004+-0.0005 (statistical followed by systematic error). This redshift is within 3 sigma of that of a HI broad Lyman-alpha of b=130 km/s at z=0.09279+-0.00005. We have also analyzed the available XMM-Newton RGS data towards PG 1116+215. Unfortunately, the XMM-Newton data are not suitable to investigate this line because of instrumental features at the wavelengths of interest. At the same redshift, the Chandra and XMM-Newton spectra have OVII K-alpha absorption line features of significance 1.5 sigma and 1.8 sigma, respectively. We also analyzed the available SDSS spectroscopic galaxy survey data towards PG 1116+215 in the redshift range of interest. We found evidence for a galaxy filament that intersects the PG 1116+215 sightline and additional galaxy structures that may host WHIM. The combination of HST, Chandra, XMM-Newton and SDSS data indicates that we have likely detected a multi-temperature WHIM at z=0.091-0.093 towards PG 1116+215.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2015

Missing baryons traced by the galaxy luminosity density in the large-scale WHIM filaments

We propose a new approach to the missing baryons problem. Building on the common assumption that the missing baryons are in the form of the Warm Hot Intergalactic Medium (WHIM), we further assumed here that the galaxy luminosity density can be used as a tracer of the WHIM. The latter assumption is supported by our finding of a significant correlation between the WHIM density and the galaxy luminosity density in the hydrodynamical simulations of Cui et al. (2012). We further found that the fraction of the gas mass in the WHIM phase is substantially (by a factor of $\sim$1.6) higher within the large scale galactic filaments, i.e. $\sim$70\%, compared to the average in the full simulation volume of $\sim$0.1\,Gpc$^3$. The relation between the WHIM overdensity and the galaxy luminosity overdensity within the galactic filaments is consistent with linear: $δ_{\rm whim}\,=\,0.7\,\pm\,0.1\,\times\,δ_\mathrm{LD}^{0.9 \pm 0.2}$. We applied our procedure to the line of sight to the blazar H2356-309 and found evidence for the WHIM in correspondence of the Sculptor Wall (z $\sim$0.03 and $\log{N_H}$ = $19.9^{+0.1}_{-0.3}$) and Pisces-Cetus superclusters (z $\sim$0.06 and $\log{N_H}$ = $19.7^{+0.2}_{-0.3}$), in agreement with the redshifts and column densities of the X-ray absorbers identified and studied by Fang et al. (2010) and Zappacosta et al. (2010). This agreement indicates that the galaxy luminosity density and galactic filaments are reliable signposts for the WHIM and that our method is robust in estimating the WHIM density. The signal that we detected cannot originate from the halos of the nearby galaxies since they cannot account for the large WHIM column densities that our method and X-ray analysis consistently find in the Sculptor Wall and Pisces-Cetus superclusters.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2014

Finding and characterising WHIM structures using the luminosity density method

We have developed a new method to approach the missing baryons problem. We assume that the missing baryons reside in a form of Warm Hot Intergalactic Medium, i.e. the WHIM. Our method consists of (a) detecting the coherent large scale structure in the spatial distribution of galaxies that traces the Cosmic Web and that in hydrodynamical simulations is associated to the WHIM, (b) map its luminosity into a galaxy luminosity density field, (c) use numerical simulations to relate the luminosity density to the density of the WHIM, (d) apply this relation to real data to trace the WHIM using the observed galaxy luminosities in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and 2dF redshift surveys. In our application we find evidence for the WHIM along the line of sight to the Sculptor Wall, at redshifts consistent with the recently reported X-ray absorption line detections. Our indirect WHIM detection technique complements the standard method based on the detection of characteristic X-ray absorption lines, showing that the galaxy luminosity density is a reliable signpost for the WHIM. For this reason, our method could be applied to current galaxy surveys to optimise the observational strategies for detecting and studying the WHIM and its properties. Our estimates of the WHIM hydrogen column density in Sculptor agree with those obtained via the X-ray analysis. Due to the additional column density estimate, our method has potential for improving the constrains of the physical parameters of the WHIM as derived with X-ray absorption, and thus for improving the understanding of the missing baryons problem.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2013

An evaluation of the exposure in nadir observation of the JEM-EUSO mission

We evaluate the exposure during nadir observations with JEM-EUSO, the Extreme Universe Space Observatory, on-board the Japanese Experiment Module of the International Space Station. Designed as a mission to explore the extreme energy Universe from space, JEM-EUSO will monitor the Earth's nighttime atmosphere to record the ultraviolet light from tracks generated by extensive air showers initiated by ultra-high energy cosmic rays. In the present work, we discuss the particularities of space-based observation and we compute the annual exposure in nadir observation. The results are based on studies of the expected trigger aperture and observational duty cycle, as well as, on the investigations of the effects of clouds and different types of background light. We show that the annual exposure is about one order of magnitude higher than those of the presently operating ground-based observatories.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2012

Chandra X-ray observations of Abell 1835 to the virial radius

We report the first Chandra detection of emission out to the virial radius in the cluster Abell 1835 at z=0.253. Our analysis of the soft X-ray surface brightness shows that emission is present out to a radial distance of 10 arcmin or 2.4 Mpc, and the temperature profile has a factor of ten drop from the peak temperature of 10 keV to the value at the virial radius. We model the Chandra data from the core to the virial radius and show that the steep temperature profile is not compatible with hydrostatic equilibrium of the hot gas, and that the gas is convectively unstable at the outskirts. A possible interpretation of the Chandra data is the presence of a second phase of warm-hot gas near the cluster's virial radius that is not in hydrostatic equilibrium with the cluster's potential. The observations are also consistent with an alternative scenario in which the gas is significantly clumped at large radii.

astro-ph.CO↗