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M. Carrasco Kind

Publications and source records attributed to M. Carrasco Kind.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

A Sample of Dust Attenuation Laws for DES Supernova Host Galaxies

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are useful distance indicators in cosmology, provided their luminosity is standardized by applying empirical corrections based on light-curve properties. One factor behind these corrections is dust extinction, accounted for in the color-luminosity relation of the standardization. This relation is usually assumed to be universal, which could potentially introduce systematics into the standardization. The ``mass-step'' observed for SNe Ia Hubble residuals has been suggested as one such systematic. We seek to obtain a completer view of dust attenuation properties for a sample of 162 SN Ia host galaxies and to probe their link to the ``mass-step''. We infer attenuation laws towards hosts from both global and local (4 kpc) Dark Energy Survey photometry and Composite Stellar Population model fits. We recover a optical depth/attenuation slope relation, best explained by differing star/dust geometry for different galaxy orientations, which is significantly different from the optical depth/extinction slope relation observed directly for SNe. We obtain a large variation of attenuation slopes and confirm these change with host properties, like stellar mass and age, meaning a universal SN Ia correction should ideally not be assumed. Analyzing the cosmological standardization, we find evidence for a ``mass-step'' and a two dimensional ``dust-step'', both more pronounced for red SNe. Although comparable, the two steps are found no to be completely analogous. We conclude that host galaxy dust data cannot fully account for the ``mass-step'', using either an alternative SN standardization with extinction proxied by host attenuation or a ``dust-step'' approach.

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Cosmological shocks around galaxy clusters: A coherent investigation with DES, SPT & ACT

We search for signatures of cosmological shocks in gas pressure profiles of galaxy clusters using the cluster catalogs from three surveys: the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3, the South Pole Telescope (SPT) SZ survey, and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) data releases 4, 5, and 6, and using thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) maps from SPT and ACT. The combined cluster sample contains around $10^5$ clusters with mass and redshift ranges $10^{13.7} < M_{\rm 200m}/M_\odot < 10^{15.5}$ and $0.1 < z < 2$, and the total sky coverage of the maps is $\approx 15,000 \,\,{\rm deg}^2$. We find a clear pressure deficit at $R/R_{\rm 200m}\approx 1.1$ in SZ profiles around both ACT and SPT clusters, estimated at $6σ$ significance, which is qualitatively consistent with a shock-induced thermal non-equilibrium between electrons and ions. The feature is not as clearly determined in profiles around DES clusters. We verify that measurements using SPT or ACT maps are consistent across all scales, including in the deficit feature. The SZ profiles of optically selected and SZ-selected clusters are also consistent for higher mass clusters. Those of less massive, optically selected clusters are suppressed on small scales by factors of 2-5 compared to predictions, and we discuss possible interpretations of this behavior. An oriented stacking of clusters -- where the orientation is inferred from the SZ image, the brightest cluster galaxy, or the surrounding large-scale structure measured using galaxy catalogs -- shows the normalization of the one-halo and two-halo terms vary with orientation. Finally, the location of the pressure deficit feature is statistically consistent with existing estimates of the splashback radius.

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Designing an Optimal Kilonova Search using DECam for Gravitational Wave Events

We address the problem of optimally identifying all kilonovae detected via gravitational wave emission in the upcoming LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA Collaboration observing run, O4, which is expected to be sensitive to a factor of $\sim 7$ more Binary Neutron Stars alerts than previously. Electromagnetic follow-up of all but the brightest of these new events will require $>1$ meter telescopes, for which limited time is available. We present an optimized observing strategy for the Dark Energy Camera during O4. We base our study on simulations of gravitational wave events expected for O4 and wide-prior kilonova simulations. We derive the detectabilities of events for realistic observing conditions. We optimize our strategy for confirming a kilonova while minimizing telescope time. For a wide range of kilonova parameters, corresponding to a fainter kilonova compared to GW170817/AT2017gfo we find that, with this optimal strategy, the discovery probability for electromagnetic counterparts with the Dark Energy Camera is $\sim 80\%$ at the nominal binary neutron star gravitational wave detection limit for the next LVK observing run (190 Mpc), which corresponds to a $\sim 30\%$ improvement compared to the strategy adopted during the previous observing run. For more distant events ($\sim 330$ Mpc), we reach a $\sim 60\%$ probability of detection, a factor of $\sim 2$ increase. For a brighter kilonova model dominated by the blue component that reproduces the observations of GW170817/AT2017gfo, we find that we can reach $\sim 90\%$ probability of detection out to 330 Mpc, representing an increase of $\sim 20 \%$, while also reducing the total telescope time required to follow-up events by $\sim 20\%$.

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Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Constraints on extensions to $Λ$CDM with weak lensing and galaxy clustering

We constrain extensions to the $Λ$CDM model using measurements from the Dark Energy Survey's first three years of observations and external data. The DES data are the two-point correlation functions of weak gravitational lensing, galaxy clustering, and their cross-correlation. We use simulated data and blind analyses of real data to validate the robustness of our results. In many cases, constraining power is limited by the absence of nonlinear predictions that are reliable at our required precision. The models are: dark energy with a time-dependent equation of state, non-zero spatial curvature, sterile neutrinos, modifications of gravitational physics, and a binned $σ_8(z)$ model which serves as a probe of structure growth. For the time-varying dark energy equation of state evaluated at the pivot redshift we find $(w_{\rm p}, w_a)= (-0.99^{+0.28}_{-0.17},-0.9\pm 1.2)$ at 68% confidence with $z_{\rm p}=0.24$ from the DES measurements alone, and $(w_{\rm p}, w_a)= (-1.03^{+0.04}_{-0.03},-0.4^{+0.4}_{-0.3})$ with $z_{\rm p}=0.21$ for the combination of all data considered. Curvature constraints of $Ω_k=0.0009\pm 0.0017$ and effective relativistic species $N_{\rm eff}=3.10^{+0.15}_{-0.16}$ are dominated by external data. For massive sterile neutrinos, we improve the upper bound on the mass $m_{\rm eff}$ by a factor of three compared to previous analyses, giving 95% limits of $(ΔN_{\rm eff},m_{\rm eff})\leq (0.28, 0.20\, {\rm eV})$. We also constrain changes to the lensing and Poisson equations controlled by functions $Σ(k,z) = Σ_0 Ω_Λ(z)/Ω_{Λ,0}$ and $μ(k,z)=μ_0 Ω_Λ(z)/Ω_{Λ,0}$ respectively to $Σ_0=0.6^{+0.4}_{-0.5}$ from DES alone and $(Σ_0,μ_0)=(0.04\pm 0.05,0.08^{+0.21}_{-0.19})$ for the combination of all data. Overall, we find no significant evidence for physics beyond $Λ$CDM.

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DES Y3 + KiDS-1000: Consistent cosmology combining cosmic shear surveys

We present a joint cosmic shear analysis of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) and the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000) in a collaborative effort between the two survey teams. We find consistent cosmological parameter constraints between DES Y3 and KiDS-1000 which, when combined in a joint-survey analysis, constrain the parameter $S_8 = σ_8 \sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3}$ with a mean value of $0.790^{+0.018}_{-0.014}$. The mean marginal is lower than the maximum a posteriori estimate, $S_8=0.801$, owing to skewness in the marginal distribution and projection effects in the multi-dimensional parameter space. Our results are consistent with $S_8$ constraints from observations of the cosmic microwave background by Planck, with agreement at the $1.7σ$ level. We use a Hybrid analysis pipeline, defined from a mock survey study quantifying the impact of the different analysis choices originally adopted by each survey team. We review intrinsic alignment models, baryon feedback mitigation strategies, priors, samplers and models of the non-linear matter power spectrum.

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Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Redshift Calibration of the MagLim Lens Sample from the combination of SOMPZ and clustering and its impact on Cosmology

We present an alternative calibration of the MagLim lens sample redshift distributions from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) first three years of data (Y3). The new calibration is based on a combination of a Self-Organising Maps based scheme and clustering redshifts to estimate redshift distributions and inherent uncertainties, which is expected to be more accurate than the original DES Y3 redshift calibration of the lens sample. We describe in detail the methodology, we validate it on simulations and discuss the main effects dominating our error budget. The new calibration is in fair agreement with the fiducial DES Y3 redshift distributions calibration, with only mild differences ($<3σ$) in the means and widths of the distributions. We study the impact of this new calibration on cosmological constraints, analysing DES Y3 galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements, assuming a $Λ$CDM cosmology. We obtain $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.30\pm 0.04$, $σ_8 = 0.81\pm 0.07 $ and $S_8 = 0.81\pm 0.04$, which implies a $\sim 0.4σ$ shift in the $Ω_{\rm}-S_8$ plane compared to the fiducial DES Y3 results, highlighting the importance of the redshift calibration of the lens sample in multi-probe cosmological analyses.

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Rates and properties of type Ia supernovae in galaxy clusters within the Dark Energy Survey

We identify 66 photometrically classified type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) that have occurred within red-sequence selected galaxy clusters. We compare light-curve and host galaxy properties of the cluster SNe to 1024 DES SNe Ia located in field galaxies, the largest comparison of two such samples at high redshift (z > 0.1). We find that cluster SN light curves decline faster than those in the field (97.7 per cent confidence). However, when limiting these samples to host galaxies of similar colour and mass, there is no significant difference in the SN light curve properties. Motivated by previous detections of a higher-normalised SN Ia delay time distribution in galaxy clusters, we measure the intrinsic rate of SNe Ia in cluster and field environments. We find the average ratio of the SN Ia rate per galaxy between high mass ($10\leq\log\mathrm{(M_{*}/M_{\odot})} \leq 11.25$) cluster and field galaxies to be $0.594 \pm0.068$. This difference is mass-dependent, with the ratio declining with increasing mass, which suggests that the stellar populations in cluster hosts are older than those in field hosts. We show that the mass-normalised rate (or SNe per unit mass) in massive-passive galaxies is consistent between cluster and field environments. Additionally, both of these rates are consistent with rates previously measured in clusters at similar redshifts. We conclude that in massive-passive galaxies, which are the dominant hosts of cluster SNe, the cluster DTD is comparable to the field.

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The Intrinsic Alignment of Red Galaxies in DES Y1 redMaPPer Galaxy Clusters

Clusters of galaxies are sensitive to the most nonlinear peaks in the cosmic density field. The weak gravitational lensing of background galaxies by clusters can allow us to infer their masses. However, galaxies associated with the local environment of the cluster can also be intrinsically aligned due to the local tidal gradient, contaminating any cosmology derived from the lensing signal. We measure this intrinsic alignment in Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 redMaPPer clusters. We find evidence of a non-zero mean radial alignment of galaxies within clusters between redshift 0.1-0.7. We find a significant systematic in the measured ellipticities of cluster satellite galaxies that we attribute to the central galaxy flux and other intracluster light. We attempt to correct this signal, and fit a simple model for intrinsic alignment amplitude ($A_{\textrm{IA}}$) to the measurement, finding $A_{\textrm{IA}}=0.15\pm 0.04$, when excluding data near the edge of the cluster. We find a significantly stronger alignment of the central galaxy with the cluster dark matter halo at low redshift and with higher richness and central galaxy absolute magnitude (proxies for cluster mass). This is an important demonstration of the ability of large photometric data sets like DES to provide direct constraints on the intrinsic alignment of galaxies within clusters. These measurements can inform improvements to small-scale modeling and simulation of the intrinsic alignment of galaxies to help improve the separation of the intrinsic alignment signal in weak lensing studies.

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The PSZ-MCMF catalogue of Planck clusters over the DES region

We present the first systematic follow-up of Planck Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect (SZE) selected candidates down to signal-to-noise (S/N) of 3 over the 5000 deg$^2$ covered by the Dark Energy Survey. Using the MCMF cluster confirmation algorithm, we identify optical counterparts, determine photometric redshifts and richnesses and assign a parameter, $f_{\rm cont}$, that reflects the probability that each SZE-optical pairing represents a random superposition of physically unassociated systems rather than a real cluster. The new PSZ-MCMF cluster catalogue consists of 853 MCMF confirmed clusters and has a purity of 90%. We present the properties of subsamples of the PSZ-MCMF catalogue that have purities ranging from 90% to 97.5%, depending on the adopted $f_{\rm cont}$ threshold. Halo mass estimates $M_{500}$, redshifts, richnesses, and optical centers are presented for all PSZ-MCMF clusters. The PSZ-MCMF catalogue adds 589 previously unknown Planck identified clusters over the DES footprint and provides redshifts for an additional 50 previously published Planck selected clusters with S/N>4.5. Using the subsample with spectroscopic redshifts, we demonstrate excellent cluster photo-$z$ performance with an RMS scatter in $Δz/(1+z)$ of 0.47%. Our MCMF based analysis allows us to infer the contamination fraction of the initial S/N>3 Planck selected candidate list, which is ~50%. We present a method of estimating the completeness of the PSZ-MCMF cluster sample. In comparison to the previously published Planck cluster catalogues. this new S/N>3 MCMF confirmed cluster catalogue populates the lower mass regime at all redshifts and includes clusters up to z$\sim$1.3.

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Identification of Galaxy-Galaxy Strong Lens Candidates in the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey Using Machine Learning

We perform a search for galaxy-galaxy strong lens systems using a convolutional neural network (CNN) applied to imaging data from the first public data release of the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey (DELVE), which contains $\sim 520$ million astronomical sources covering $\sim 4,000$ $\mathrm{deg}^2$ of the southern sky to a $5σ$ point-source depth of $g=24.3$, $r=23.9$, $i=23.3$, and $z=22.8$ mag. Following the methodology of similar searches using DECam data, we apply color and magnitude cuts to select a catalog of $\sim 11$ million extended astronomical sources. After scoring with our CNN, the highest scoring 50,000 images were visually inspected and assigned a score on a scale from 0 (definitely not a lens) to 3 (very probable lens). We present a list of 581 strong lens candidates, 562 of which are previously unreported. We categorize our candidates using their human-assigned scores, resulting in 55 Grade A candidates, 149 Grade B candidates, and 377 Grade C candidates. We additionally highlight eight potential quadruply lensed quasars from this sample. Due to the location of our search footprint in the northern Galactic cap ($b > 10$ deg) and southern celestial hemisphere (${\rm Dec.}<0$ deg), our candidate list has little overlap with other existing ground-based searches. Where our search footprint does overlap with other searches, we find a significant number of high-quality candidates which were previously unidentified, indicating a degree of orthogonality in our methodology. We report properties of our candidates including apparent magnitude and Einstein radius estimated from the image separation.

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The Kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect with ACT, DES, and BOSS: a Novel Hybrid Estimator

The kinematic and thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ and tSZ) effects probe the abundance and thermodynamics of ionized gas in galaxies and clusters. We present a new hybrid estimator to measure the kSZ effect by combining cosmic microwave background temperature anisotropy maps with photometric and spectroscopic optical survey data. The method interpolates a velocity reconstruction from a spectroscopic catalog at the positions of objects in a photometric catalog, which makes it possible to leverage the high number density of the photometric catalog and the precision of the spectroscopic survey. Combining this hybrid kSZ estimator with a measurement of the tSZ effect simultaneously constrains the density and temperature of free electrons in the photometrically selected galaxies. Using the 1000 deg2 of overlap between the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 5, the first three years of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) Data Release 12, we detect the kSZ signal at 4.8$σ$ and reject the null (no-kSZ) hypothesis at 5.1$σ$. This corresponds to 2.0$σ$ per 100,000 photometric objects with a velocity field based on a spectroscopic survey with 1/5th the density of the photometric catalog. For comparison, a recent ACT analysis using exclusively spectroscopic data from BOSS measured the kSZ signal at 2.1$σ$ per 100,000 objects. Our derived constraints on the thermodynamic properties of the galaxy halos are consistent with previous measurements. With future surveys, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, we expect that this hybrid estimator could result in measurements with significantly better signal-to-noise than those that rely on spectroscopic data alone.

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Beyond the 3rd moment: A practical study of using lensing convergence CDFs for cosmology with DES Y3

Widefield surveys of the sky probe many clustered scalar fields -- such as galaxy counts, lensing potential, gas pressure, etc. -- that are sensitive to different cosmological and astrophysical processes. Our ability to constrain such processes from these fields depends crucially on the statistics chosen to summarize the field. In this work, we explore the cumulative distribution function (CDF) at multiple scales as a summary of the galaxy lensing convergence field. Using a suite of N-body lightcone simulations, we show the CDFs' constraining power is modestly better than that of the 2nd and 3rd moments of the field, as they approximately capture the information from all moments of the field in a concise data vector. We then study the practical aspects of applying the CDFs to observational data, using the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) data as an example, and compute the impact of different systematics on the CDFs. The contributions from the point spread function are 2-3 orders of magnitude below the cosmological signal, while those from reduced shear approximation contribute $\lesssim 1\%$ to the signal. Source clustering effects and baryon imprints contribute $1-10\%$. Enforcing scale cuts to limit systematics-driven biases in parameter constraints degrades these constraints a noticeable amount, and this degradation is similar for the CDFs and the moments. We also detect correlations between the observed convergence field and the shape noise field at $13σ$. We find that the non-Gaussian correlations in the noise field must be modeled accurately to use the CDFs, or other statistics sensitive to all moments, as a rigorous cosmology tool.

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OzDES Reverberation Mapping Program: Mg II Lags and R-L relation

The correlation between the broad line region radius and continuum luminosity ($R-L$ relation) of active galactic nuclei (AGN) is critical for single-epoch mass estimates of supermassive black holes (SMBHs). At $z \sim 1-2$, where AGN activity peaks, the $R-L$ relation is constrained by the reverberation mapping (RM) lags of the Mg II line. We present 25 Mg II lags from the Australian Dark Energy Survey (OzDES) RM project based on six years of monitoring. We define quantitative criteria to select good lag measurements and verify their reliability with simulations based on both the damped random walk stochastic model and the re-scaled, re-sampled versions of the observed lightcurves of local, well-measured AGN. Our sample significantly increases the number of Mg II lags and extends the $R-L$ relation to higher redshifts and luminosities. The relative iron line strength $\mathcal{R}_{\rm Fe}$ has little impact on the $R-L$ relation. The best-fit Mg II $R-L$ relation has a slope $α= 0.39 \pm 0.08$ with an intrinsic scatter $σ_{\rm rl} = 0.15^{+0.03}_{-0.02}$. The slope is consistent with previous measurements and shallower than the H$β$ $R-L$ relation. The intrinsic scatter of the new $R-L$ relation is substantially smaller than previous studies and comparable to the intrinsic scatter of the H$β$ $R-L$ relation. Our new $R-L$ relation will enable more precise single-epoch mass estimates and SMBH demographic studies at cosmic noon.

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A measurement of the mean central optical depth of galaxy clusters via the pairwise kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect with SPT-3G and DES

We infer the mean optical depth of a sample of optically-selected galaxy clusters from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) via the pairwise kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect. The pairwise kSZ signal between pairs of clusters drawn from the DES Year-3 cluster catalog is detected at $4.1 σ$ in cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature maps from two years of observations with the SPT-3G camera on the South Pole Telescope. After cuts, there are 24,580 clusters in the $\sim 1,400$ deg$^2$ of the southern sky observed by both experiments. We infer the mean optical depth of the cluster sample with two techniques. The optical depth inferred from the pairwise kSZ signal is $\barτ_e = (2.97 \pm 0.73) \times 10^{-3}$, while that inferred from the thermal SZ signal is $\barτ_e = (2.51 \pm 0.55^{\text{stat}} \pm 0.15^{\rm syst}) \times 10^{-3}$. The two measures agree at $0.6 σ$. We perform a suite of systematic checks to test the robustness of the analysis.

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Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Magnification modeling and impact on cosmological constraints from galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing

We study the effect of magnification in the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 analysis of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing, using two different lens samples: a sample of Luminous red galaxies, redMaGiC, and a sample with a redshift-dependent magnitude limit, MagLim. We account for the effect of magnification on both the flux and size selection of galaxies, accounting for systematic effects using the Balrog image simulations. We estimate the impact of magnification on the galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing cosmology analysis, finding it to be a significant systematic for the MagLim sample. We show cosmological constraints from the galaxy clustering auto-correlation and galaxy-galaxy lensing signal with different magnifications priors, finding broad consistency in cosmological parameters in $Λ$CDM and $w$CDM. However, when magnification bias amplitude is allowed to be free, we find the two-point correlations functions prefer a different amplitude to the fiducial input derived from the image simulations. We validate the magnification analysis by comparing the cross-clustering between lens bins with the prediction from the baseline analysis, which uses only the auto-correlation of the lens bins, indicating systematics other than magnification may be the cause of the discrepancy. We show adding the cross-clustering between lens redshift bins to the fit significantly improves the constraints on lens magnification parameters and allows uninformative priors to be used on magnification coefficients, without any loss of constraining power or prior volume concerns.

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Cool Cores in Clusters of Galaxies in the Dark Energy Survey

We search for the presence of cool cores in optically-selected galaxy clusters from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and investigate their prevalence as a function of redshift and cluster richness. Clusters were selected from the redMaPPer analysis of three years of DES observations that have archival Chandra X-ray observations, giving a sample of 99 clusters with a redshift range of $0.11 < z < 0.87$ and a richness range of $25 < λ< 207$. Using the X-ray data, the core temperature was compared to the outer temperature to identify clusters where the core temperature is a factor of 0.7 or less than the outer temperature. We found a cool core fraction of approximately 20% with no significant trend in the cool core fraction with either redshift or richness.

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The XMM Cluster Survey: Exploring scaling relations and completeness of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 redMaPPer cluster catalogue

We cross-match and compare characteristics of galaxy clusters identified in observations from two sky surveys using two completely different techniques. One sample is optically selected from the analysis of three years of Dark Energy Survey observations using the redMaPPer cluster detection algorithm. The second is X-ray selected from XMM observations analysed by the XMM Cluster Survey. The samples comprise a total area of 57.4 deg$^2$, bounded by the area of 4 contiguous XMM survey regions that overlap the DES footprint. We find that the X-ray selected sample is fully matched with entries in the redMaPPer catalogue, above $λ>$20 and within 0.1$< z <$0.9. Conversely, only 38\% of the redMaPPer catalogue is matched to an X-ray extended source. Next, using 120 optically clusters and 184 X-ray selected clusters, we investigate the form of the X-ray luminosity-temperature ($L_{X}-T_{X}$), luminosity-richness ($L_{X}-λ$) and temperature-richness ($T_{X}-λ$) scaling relations. We find that the fitted forms of the $L_{X}-T_{X}$ relations are consistent between the two selection methods and also with other studies in the literature. However, we find tentative evidence for a steepening of the slope of the relation for low richness systems in the X-ray selected sample. When considering the scaling of richness with X-ray properties, we again find consistency in the relations (i.e., $L_{X}-λ$ and $T_{X}-λ$) between the optical and X-ray selected samples. This is contrary to previous similar works that find a significant increase in the scatter of the luminosity scaling relation for X-ray selected samples compared to optically selected samples.

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Photometry of outer Solar System objects from the Dark Energy Survey I: photometric methods, light curve distributions and trans-Neptunian binaries

We report the methods of and initial scientific inferences from the extraction of precision photometric information for the $>800$ trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) discovered in the images of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). Scene-modelling photometry is used to obtain shot-noise-limited flux measures for each exposure of each TNO, with background sources subtracted. Comparison of double-source fits to the pixel data with single-source fits are used to identify and characterize two binary TNO systems. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method samples the joint likelihood of the intrinsic colors of each source as well as the amplitude of its flux variation, given the time series of multiband flux measurements and their uncertainties. A catalog of these colors and light curve amplitudes $A$ is included with this publication. We show how to assign a likelihood to the distribution $q(A)$ of light curve amplitudes in any subpopulation. Using this method, we find decisive evidence (i.e. evidence ratio $<0.01$) that cold classical (CC) TNOs with absolute magnitude $6<H_r<8.2$ are more variable than the hot classical (HC) population of the same $H_r$, reinforcing theories that the former form in situ and the latter arise from a different physical population. Resonant and scattering TNOs in this $H_r$ range have variability consistent with either the HC's or CC's. DES TNOs with $H_r<6$ are seen to be decisively less variable than higher-$H_r$ members of any dynamical group, as expected. More surprising is that detached TNOs are decisively less variable than scattering TNOs, which requires them to have distinct source regions or some subsequent differential processing.

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