arXiv subjects

M. Coleman Miller

Publications and source records attributed to M. Coleman Miller.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Systematic Effects of Hydrogen and Helium Atmosphere Mismatch on Radius Inference in PSR~J0740+6620-like Synthetic NICER Data

Constraints on neutron star radii provide insight into the properties of the cold, dense matter in their interiors. Previous studies using synthetic Neutron star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) pulse waveform data have demonstrated that radius inferences derived therefrom are robust against several classes of modeling systematics. Here we explore the consequences of assuming the wrong atmospheric composition, using synthetic data based on the $\sim 2.1~M_\odot$ pulsar PSR~J0740$+$6620. We find that the assumption of a hydrogen atmosphere when the synthetic data assumed a helium atmosphere, or vice versa, produces little bias in the inferred radius at the spot-to-background ratio of the actual PSR~J0740$+$6620 data. However, when we increase the spot-to-background ratio by a factor of $\sim20$ while keeping the total number of counts fixed at the observed $\sim 5.5\times 10^5$, we find that composition mismatch can produce significantly biased radius estimates while remaining hidden inside a fit with statistically acceptable residuals. Even in these cases, the Bayesian evidence consistently identifies the correct atmospheric model. Our findings reinforce the importance of using the Bayesian evidence for model comparison and goodness-of-fit tests.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

A Proliferated Space Architecture for Time-Domain Astrophysics

Time-Domain and Multi-Messenger Astrophysics (TDAMM) is entering a discovery-rich but follow-up-limited era, creating an urgent need for responsive, multiwavelength space-based capabilities. The Hydra constellation is a concept for a proliferated space architecture for time-domain astrophysics. The constellation would act as a disaggregated observatory composed of coordinated, relatively low-cost spacecraft that collectively provide capabilities traditionally concentrated within a single large mission. The architecture would combine persistent wide-field gamma-ray monitoring, wide-field and focused X-ray observations, and rapid-response ultraviolet, optical, and infrared imaging and spectroscopy. The constellation would both discover high-energy transients and respond to external alerts from gravitational-wave detectors, neutrino observatories, and ground- and space-based surveys, using low-latency communications, automated event prioritization, and community coordination frameworks to rapidly assign observing resources. A proliferated architecture would offer operational advantages over a single larger mission, including simultaneous observations of multiple targets, graceful degradation following individual spacecraft failures, recurring technology refresh, and opportunities for commercial, international, and philanthropic contributed nodes to join the network. The constellation would address fundamental questions concerning cosmic accelerators, the origin and evolution of the elements, the behavior of matter at extreme density, and the nature of dark energy through gravitational-wave standard sirens. This white paper presents the Hydra concept description that was submitted to NASA's ASTRA initiative for consideration by the Cosmic Origins Program Analysis Group (CoPAG) and Physics of the Cosmos Program Analysis Group (PhysPAG).

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

A Possible X-ray and Gamma-ray Quasi-Periodic Oscillation in GRB 241030A

Quasiperiodic oscillations (QPOs) in gamma-ray intensity have been reported from a few gamma-ray bursts. These QPOs could be related to fundamental frequencies in the sources, which would lead to new insights about these systems. Here we report on our analysis of GRB~241030A, a several-minute-long burst with $\sim 10$ gamma-ray flares that have approximate periodicities at f ~ 0.04 Hz and f ~ 0.08 Hz. This quasi-periodicity is seen in X-rays with the Swift X-Ray Telescope (XRT) as well as in gamma-rays with the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) and the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM). Compared with a power spectral model that has only red noise, the Bayes factor in favor of a Lorentzian-shaped QPO is more than $10^{200}$, even when the red noise is described by segments with up to four different slopes. However, the interpretation of this power spectral feature as a QPO rather than as a fluctuation in red noise is complicated by the low frequency of the feature as well as the extremely large number of counts, which amplifies differences from smooth power spectral distributions. After discussing the properties of the apparent QPO, we discuss a few processes that could plausibly modulate the flux at this frequency. Among the mechanisms considered, we find the most plausible explanation to be a GRB jet passing through regularly spaced shells of circumburst material, possibly produced by binary interactions near periastron in an eccentric progenitor system.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Ad Astra White Paper: A Pitch for the Next 25 Years of NASA's Physics of the Cosmos Program

Astrophysical observations of our universe have been key to our understanding of how the universe works. Shortly after the turn of the millennium, the National Research Council delivered \textit{Connecting Quarks with the Cosmos: Eleven Science Questions for the New Century}. In the subsequent quarter-century, we have made substantial progress in answering each question. These advancements have, in part, arisen because of the success of major US facilities across several domains of physics, guided by long-term planning documents which still largely focus on these questions. This report seeks to provide a status update on each question, and to outline what space-based facilities are crucial for future progress, intended to guide NASA's preparatory work for the Astro2030 Decadal.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

An Investigation of Systematic Effects from Background Priors on PSR J0740$+$6620 Radius Estimates using Synthetic NICER and XMM-Newton Data

Accurate and precise measurements of neutron star radii provide invaluable information about the cold, dense matter in neutron star cores. Analyses of synthetic X-ray pulse waveform data similar to the data obtained from non-accreting neutron stars using the Neutron star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) have indicated that mass and radius estimates made using such data are robust against some systematic errors that may be made when modeling these data, such as errors in the assumed pattern of the thermal X-ray emission from the surface of these stars. A potentially important but so far unexplored source of systematic error is misparameterization of unmodulated background components, which can bias the inferred radius, particularly when data from different telescopes are used in the analysis. In this study, we investigate the effects of the background model on radius estimates by jointly analyzing synthetic NICER and XMM-Newton data, using the $\sim 2.1~M_\odot$ pulsar PSR~J0740$+$6620 as a prototypical example. Our analysis shows that even if the background assumed in the model underestimates the actual background by a factor of more than five, the resulting shift of the radius posterior from the true value of the radius corresponds to only $\sim1σ$. In all the cases we examined, the Bayesian evidence for the correct background model is greater than for the incorrect background model. These results add to the evidence that analyses of NICER-like data provide accurate measurements of neutron star radii when the statistical sampling is thorough and the model fits the data well.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

4th TDAMM Workshop White Paper

Time-Domain and Multi-Messenger Astrophysics (TDAMM) is entering a new era in which the rate and diversity of transient discoveries will grow rapidly across electromagnetic, gravitational-wave, neutrino, and cosmic-ray facilities. The scientific return from these investments will increasingly depend not on discovery alone, but on the ability to identify, prioritize, and coordinate follow-up observations across a heterogeneous and globally distributed network of observatories. This white paper summarizes the outcomes of the Fourth TDAMM Workshop and assesses the near-term discovery landscape, the infrastructure and tools that support coordinated observations, and the technical, policy, and capability gaps that may limit future progress. The workshop identified three principal challenges: insufficiently scalable and interoperable alert and coordination infrastructure, policies that impede rapid multi-facility observations and rare-event science, and the potential loss of critical high-energy, rapid-response, and spectroscopic capabilities. The white paper identifies the need for sustained support for alert distribution, brokers, standardized observatory metadata, cross-facility coordination platforms, and unified follow-up repositories; expanded joint observing opportunities and funding mechanisms for coordinated analysis; and strategic investment in future TDAMM facilities. The white paper also present a framework for community observing plans that would establish pre-coordinated responses to rare, high-impact events, supported by transparent governance, immediate public data release, and regular community revision. Science overviews and detailed observing strategies are provided for gamma-ray bursts, tidal disruption events, X-ray binaries, novae, supernovae, magnetars, compact binary mergers, and high-energy neutrino sources.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Eccentricity constraints disfavor single-single capture in nuclear star clusters as the origin of all LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA binary black holes

Multiple formation pathways have been proposed for the origin of binary black holes (BBHs). These include isolated binary evolution and dynamical assembly in dense stellar environments such as nuclear or globular star clusters. Yet, the fraction of BBHs originating from each channel remains uncertain. One way to constrain this fraction is by investigating the orbital eccentricities of the BH coalescences detected by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) Collaboration. We analyze 84 BBHs from the first part of the fourth LVK observing run (O4a) using a multipolar, eccentric, aligned-spin effective-one-body waveform model. We perform parameter inference with neural posterior estimation and nested sampling. After incorporating astrophysical prior odds and comparing to the quasicircular precessing-spin hypothesis, we find that no candidates reach a high enough significance to claim a confident detection of eccentricity. We use these upper limits to explore a model, in which all O4a BBHs originate from single-single gravitational wave (GW) captures. We perform hierarchical inference on the velocity dispersion of the host environment of the BBHs and find $σ$ < 19.7 km/s (95% credible upper bound). This disfavors single-single capture in nuclear star clusters (approximately 20-200 km/s) as the dominant source of all observed BBH mergers. Our analysis also jointly infers the mass, spin and redshift distributions and takes into account selection effects due to using quasi-circular templates for BBH detection. Our results place improved constraints on the number of eccentric BBHs and highlight the importance of eccentricity measurements in disentangling compact-binary formation channels in current and future GW detectors.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

EP250827b/SN 2025wkm: An X-ray Flash-Supernova Powered by a Central Engine and Circumstellar Interaction

We present the discovery of EP250827b/SN 2025wkm, an X-ray Flash (XRF) discovered by the Einstein Probe (EP), accompanied by a broad-line Type Ic supernova (SN Ic-BL) at $z = 0.1194$. EP250827b possesses a prompt X-ray luminosity of $\sim 10^{45} \, \rm{erg \, s^{-1}}$, lasts over 1000 seconds, and has a peak energy $E_{\rm{p}} < 1.5$ keV at 90\% confidence. SN 2025wkm possesses a double-peaked optical light curve (LC), though its bolometric luminosity plateaus after its initial peak for $\sim 20$ days, consistent with a central engine injecting additional energy into the explosion. Its spectrum transitions from a blue to red continuum with clear blueshifted broad absorption features consistent with a SN Ic-BL classification. We do not detect any transient radio emission and rule out the existence of an on-axis, energetic jet $\gtrsim 10^{50}~$erg assuming a typical LGRB circumburst constant density ($n \approx 10^{-3}$--$10^{-1}~{\rm cm}^{-3}$) and microphysical parameters ($ε_{\rm e} = 0.1$ and $ε_{\rm B} = 0.01$). In the model we invoke, the collapse gives rise to a long-lived magnetar, potentially surrounded by an accretion disk. Magnetically--driven winds from the magnetar and the disk mix together and break out with a velocity $\sim 0.35c$ and interact with an extended circumstellar medium with radius $\sim 10^{13}$ cm, generating X-ray breakout emission through non-thermal free-free processes. The disk outflows and magnetar winds power blackbody photospheric emission as they cool adiabatically and thermalize, producing the first SN peak. The spin-down luminosity of the magnetar and radioactive decay of $^{56}$Ni powers the late-time emission. We end by discussing the landscape of XRF-SNe within the context of EP's recent discoveries.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Evidence for eccentricity in the population of binary black holes observed by LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA

Binary black holes (BBHs) in eccentric orbits produce distinct modulations in gravitational waves (GWs); measuring orbital eccentricity provides evidence for dynamical binary formation channels. We analyze 57 GW events from the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) O1-O3 observing runs using a multipolar aligned-spin inspiral-merger-ringdown waveform with two eccentric parameters: eccentricity and relativistic anomaly (assuming a quasi-circular merger-ringdown), made computationally feasible by the machine-learning code \texttt{DINGO}, which accelerates inference by 2-3 orders of magnitude. First, with a uniform eccentricity prior, eccentric vs. quasi-circular aligned-spin $\log_{10}$ Bayes factors are 1.84-4.75 (depending on glitch mitigation) for GW200129, 3.0 for GW190701 and 1.77 for GW200208_22. We infer $e_{\text{gw, 10Hz}}$ $(e_{\text{gw, 20Hz}})$ to be $0.27_{-0.12}^{+0.10}$ ($0.16_{-0.05}^{+0.04}$) to $0.17_{-0.13}^{+0.14}$ ($0.1_{-0.04}^{+0.05}$) for GW200129, $0.54_{-0.30}^{+0.12}$ ($0.31_{-0.13}^{+0.12}$) for GW190701 and $0.39_{-0.23}^{+0.23}$ ($0.21_{-0.08}^{+0.08}$) for GW200208_22. Second, eccentric aligned-spin vs. quasi-circular precessing-spin $\log_{10}$ Bayes factors are 1.43-4.92 for GW200129, 2.61 for GW190701 and 1.23 for GW200208_22. Third, GW190521 shows no evidence for eccentricity ($\log_{10}$ Bayes factor 0.04). Fourth, neglecting spin-precession with an astrophysically-motivated prior on the eccentric BBH rate, the probability of one of the 57 events being eccentric exceeds 99.5\% or $(100-8.4\times10^{-4})$\% (depending on glitch mitigation). Fifth, we study parameter estimation impacts of neglecting eccentricity in quasi-circular models or higher modes in eccentric models. These results underscore the inclusion of eccentric parameters in BBH characterization for upcoming LVK runs and future ground- and space-based detectors probing more diverse BBH populations.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2026

The Decoupling of Binaries from Their Circumbinary Disks

We have investigated, both analytically and numerically, accreting supermassive black hole binaries as they inspiral due to gravitational radiation to elucidate the decoupling of binaries from their disks and inform future multi-messenger observations of these systems. Our numerical studies evolve equal-mass binaries from initial separations of $100 GM/c^2$ until merger, resolving scales as small as $\sim0.04 GM/c^2$, where $M$ is the total binary mass. Our simulations accurately capture the point at which the orbital evolution of each binary decouples from that of their circumbinary disk, and precisely resolve the flow of gas throughout the inspiral. We demonstrate analytically and numerically that timescale-based predictions overestimate the binary separations at which decoupling occurs by factors of $\sim3$, and illustrate the utility of a velocity-based decoupling criterion. High-viscosity ($ν\gtrsim0.03 GM/c$) circumbinary systems decouple late ($a_b\lesssim 15 GM/c^2$) and have qualitatively similar morphologies near merger to circumbinary systems with constant binary separations. Lower-viscosity circumbinary disks decouple earlier and exhibit qualitatively different accretion flows, which lead to precipitously decreasing accretion onto the binary. If detected, such a decrease may unambiguously identify the host galaxy of an ongoing event within a LISA error volume. We illustrate how accretion amplitude and variability evolve as binaries gradually decouple from their circumbinary disks, and where decoupling occurs over the course of binary inspirals in the LISA band. We show that, even when dynamically negligible, gas may leave a detectable imprint on the phase of gravitational waves.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

deci-Hz Gravitational Wave Observations on the Moon and Beyond

This document summarizes talks and discussions from the workshop "deci-Hz Gravitational Wave Observations on the Moon and Beyond" that took place at Johns Hopkins University between September 1 and September 3, 2025. The workshop focused on experimental proposals to observe gravitational waves in the deci-Hz band, including lunar detectors, laser interferometers in space, and atom interferometry; gravitational wave sources in the deci-Hz frequency band; and the multi-messenger and multi-band astronomy that would be enabled by these observations.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

A carbon-rich atmosphere on a windy pulsar planet

A handful of enigmatic Jupiter-mass objects have been discovered orbiting pulsars. One such object, PSR\,J2322-2650b, uniquely resembles a hot Jupiter exoplanet due to its minimum density of 1.8 g/cm^3 and its ~1900 K equilibrium temperature. We use JWST to observe PSR J2322-2650b's emission spectrum across an entire orbit. In stark contrast to every known exoplanet orbiting a main-sequence star, we find an atmosphere rich in molecular carbon (C3, C2) with strong westward winds. Our observations open up new exoplanetary chemical (ultra-high C/O and C/N ratios of >100 and >10,000, respectively) and dynamical regimes (ultra-fast rotation with external irradiation) to observational study. The extreme carbon enrichment poses a severe challenge to the current understanding of ``black widow'' companions, which were expected to consist of a wider range of elements due to their origins as stripped stellar cores.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Dense Matter in Neutron Stars with eXTP

In this White Paper, we present the potential of the enhanced X-ray Timing and Polarimetry (eXTP) mission to constrain the equation of state of dense matter in neutron stars, exploring regimes not directly accessible to terrestrial experiments. By observing a diverse population of neutron stars - including isolated objects, X-ray bursters, and accreting systems - eXTP's unique combination of timing, spectroscopy, and polarimetry enables high-precision measurements of compactness, spin, surface temperature, polarimetric signals, and timing irregularity. These multifaceted observations, combined with advances in theoretical modeling, pave the way toward a comprehensive description of the properties and phases of dense matter from the crust to the core of neutron stars. Under development by an international Consortium led by the Institute of High Energy Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the eXTP mission is planned to be launched in early 2030.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

EP250108a/SN 2025kg: A Jet-Driven Stellar Explosion Interacting With Circumstellar Material

We present optical, radio, and X-ray observations of EP250108a/SN 2025kg, a broad-line Type Ic supernova (SN Ic-BL) accompanying an Einstein Probe (EP) fast X-ray transient (FXT) at $z=0.176$. EP250108a/SN 2025kg possesses a double-peaked optical light curve and its spectrum transitions from a blue underlying continuum to a typical SN Ic-BL spectrum over time. We fit a radioactive decay model to the second peak of the optical light curve and find SN parameters that are consistent with the SNe Ic-BL population, while its X-ray and radio properties are consistent with those of low-luminosity GRB (LLGRB) 060218/SN 2006aj. We explore three scenarios to understand the system's multi-wavelength emission -- (a) SN ejecta interacting with an extended circumstellar medium (CSM), (b) the shocked cocoon of a collapsar-driven jet choked in its stellar envelope, and (c) the shocked cocoon of a collapsar-driven jet choked in an extended CSM. Models (b) and (c) can explain the optical light curve and are also consistent with the radio and X-ray observations. We favor model (c) because it can self-consistently explain both the X-ray prompt emission and first optical peak, but we do not rule out model (b). From the properties of the first peak in model (c), we find evidence that EP250108a/SN 2025kg interacts with an extended CSM, and infer an envelope mass $M_{\rm e} \sim 0.1\,\rm M_\odot$ and radius $R_{\rm e} \sim 4 \times 10^{13}$ cm. EP250108a/SN 2025kg's multi-wavelength properties make it a close analog to LLGRB 060218/SN 2006aj, and highlight the power of early follow-up observations in mapping the environments of massive stars prior to core collapse.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Comparing the Space Densities of Millisecond-Spin Magnetars and Fast X-Ray Transients

Fast X-ray transients (FXTs) are bright X-ray flashes with durations of minutes to hours, peak isotropic luminosities of L_X,peak ~ 10^42-10^47 erg/s, and total isotropic energies of E ~ 10^47-10^50 erg. They have been detected in the soft X-ray band by Chandra, XMM-Newton, Swift-XRT, and, most recently, by Einstein Probe, which has reported more than 50 FXTs in its first year of operation. While several models have been proposed, the nature of many FXTs remains unknown. One model suggests FXTs are powered by the spin-down of newly formed millisecond magnetars, typically produced by binary neutron star (BNS) mergers. However, the BNS volumetric rate, ~10^2 Gpc^-3 yr^-1, barely overlaps with the estimated FXT rate of 10^3-10^4 Gpc^-3 yr^-1. Even within that overlap, BNS mergers would need to produce FXTs at nearly 100% efficiency. We explore whether other millisecond magnetar formation channels could account for this discrepancy. We compile rate densities for several proposed progenitors: accretion-induced collapse of white dwarfs, binary white dwarf mergers, neutron star-white dwarf mergers, and the collapse of massive stars, and convert Galactic event rates into volumetric rates using either the star formation rate or the stellar mass density distributions as a function of redshift. We find that the highest potential formation rates arise from binary white dwarf mergers and massive star collapses. However, both channels face theoretical and observational challenges: the spin and magnetic field properties of the resulting neutron stars are uncertain, and few are expected to satisfy both conditions required for FXT production. Across all scenarios, the fraction of suitable millisecond magnetars is low or poorly constrained. We conclude that they are unlikely to be the dominant progenitors of FXTs and can contribute to at most 10% of the observed FXT population.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Multidisciplinary Science in the Multimessenger Era

Astrophysical observations of the cosmos allow us to probe extreme physics and answer foundational questions on our universe. Modern astronomy is increasingly operating under a holistic approach, probing the same question with multiple diagnostics including how sources vary over time, how they appear across the electromagnetic spectrum, and through their other signatures, including gravitational waves, neutrinos, cosmic rays, and dust on Earth. Astrophysical observations are now reaching the point where approximate physics models are insufficient. Key sources of interest are explosive transients, whose understanding requires multidisciplinary studies at the intersection of astrophysics, gravity, nuclear science, plasma physics, fluid dynamics and turbulence, computation, particle physics, atomic, molecular, and optical science, condensed matter and materials science, radiation transport, and high energy density physics. This white paper provides an overview of the major scientific advances that lay at the intersection of physics and astronomy and are best probed through time-domain and multimessenger astrophysics, an exploration of how multidisciplinary science can be fostered, and introductory descriptions of the relevant scientific disciplines and key astrophysical sources of interest.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Multi-Wavelength Analysis of AT 2023sva: a Luminous Orphan Afterglow With Evidence for a Structured Jet

We present multi-wavelength analysis of ZTF23abelseb (AT 2023sva), an optically discovered fast-fading ($Δm_r = 2.2$ mag in $Δt = 0.74 $ days), luminous ($M_r \sim -30.0$ mag) and red ($g-r = 0.50$ mag) transient at $z = 2.28$ with accompanying luminous radio emission. AT 2023sva does not possess a $γ$-ray burst (GRB) counterpart to an isotropic equivalent energy limit of $E_{\rm{γ, \, iso}} < 1.6 \times 10^{52}$ erg, determined through searching $γ$-ray satellite archives between the last non-detection and first detection, making it the sixth example of an optically-discovered afterglow with a redshift measurement and no detected GRB counterpart. We analyze AT 2023sva's optical, radio, and X-ray observations to characterize the source. From radio analyses, we find the clear presence of strong interstellar scintillation (ISS) 72 days after the initial explosion, allowing us to place constraints on the source's angular size and bulk Lorentz factor. When comparing the source sizes derived from ISS of orphan events to those of the classical GRB population, we find orphan events have statistically smaller source sizes. We also utilize Bayesian techniques to model the multi-wavelength afterglow. Within this framework, we find evidence that AT 2023sva possesses a shallow power-law structured jet viewed slightly off-axis ($θ_{\rm{v}} = 0.07 \pm 0.02$) just outside of the jet's core opening angle ($θ_{\rm{c}} = 0.06 \pm 0.02$). We determine this is likely the reason for the lack of a detected GRB counterpart, but also investigate other scenarios. AT 2023sva's evidence for possessing a structured jet stresses the importance of broadening orphan afterglow search strategies to a diverse range of GRB jet angular energy profiles, to maximize the return of future optical surveys.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

The interacting double white dwarf population with LISA; stochastic foreground and resolved sources

In this work, we investigate the impact of tidal torques and mass transfer on the population of double white dwarfs (DWDs) that will be observed with LISA. Starting from a distribution of DWDs at formation predicted by numerical simulations, we use a semi-analytical model to evolve DWDs under different hypotheses for the efficiency of tidal coupling and the birth spins of white dwarfs. We then estimate the stochastic foreground and the population of resolvable binaries for LISA in each scenario. Our predicted DWD binary distribution can differ substantially from the distribution expected if only gravitational waves (GWs) are considered. If white dwarfs spin slowly, then we predict an excess of systems around a few mHz, due to binaries that outspiral after the onset of mass transfer. This excess of systems leads to differences in the confusion noise, which are most pronounced for strong tidal coupling. In that case, we find a significantly higher number of resolvable binaries than in the GW-only scenario. If instead white dwarfs spin rapidly and tidal coupling is weak, then we find no excess around a few mHz, and the confusion noise due to DWDs is very small. In that scenario, we also predict a subpopulation of outspiralling binaries below 0.1 mHz. Using the Fisher matrix approximation, we estimate the uncertainty on the GW-frequency derivative of resolvable systems. We estimate that, even for non-accreting systems, the mismodelling error due to neglect of effects other than GWs is larger than the statistical uncertainty, and thus this neglect would lead to biased estimates for mass and distance. Our results highlight the need for flexible tools in LISA data analysis. Because our semi-analytical model hinges upon a simplistic approach to determining the stability of mass accretion it will be important to deepen our comprehension of stability in mass-transferring DWD binaries.

astro-ph.SR↗