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M. J. Graham

Publications and source records attributed to M. J. Graham.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Sample of hydrogen-rich superluminous supernovae from the Zwicky Transient Facility

Hydrogen-rich superluminous supernovae (SLSNe II) are rare. The exact mechanism producing their extreme light curve peaks is not understood. Analysis of single events and small samples suggest that CSM interaction is the main responsible for their features. However, other mechanisms can not be discarded. Large sample analysis can provide clarification. We aim to characterize the light curves of a sample of 107 SLSNe II to provide valuable information that can be used to validate theoretical models. We analyze the gri light curves of SLSNe II obtained through ZTF. We study peak absolute magnitudes and characteristic timescales. When possible we compute g-r colors, pseudo-bolometric light curves, and estimate lower limits for their total radiated energy. We also study the luminosity distribution of our sample and estimate the percentage of them that would be observable by the LSST. Finally, we compare our sample to other H-rich SNe and to H-poor SLSNe I. SLSNe II are heterogeneous. Their median peak absolute magnitude is -20.3 mag in optical bands. Their rise can take from two weeks to over three months, and their decline from twenty days to over a year. We found no significant correlations between peak magnitude and timescales. SLSNe II tend to show fainter peaks, longer declines and redder colors than SLSNe I. We present the largest sample of SLSNe II light curves to date, comprising of 107 events. Their diversity could be explained by considering different CSM morphologies. Although, theoretical analysis is needed to explore alternative scenarios. Other luminous transients, such as Active Galactic Nuclei, Tidal Disruption Events or SNe Ia-CSM, can easily become contaminants. Thus, good multi-wavelength light curve coverage becomes paramount. LSST could miss 30 percent of the ZTF events in the its footprint in gri bands. Redder bands become important to construct complete samples.

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A systematically-selected sample of luminous, long-duration, ambiguous nuclear transients

We present a search for luminous, long-duration ambiguous nuclear transients (ANTs) similar to the unprecedented discovery of the extreme, ambiguous event AT2021lwx with a $>150$\,d rise time and luminosity $10^{45.7}$\,erg\,s$^{-1}$. We use the Lasair transient broker to search Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) data for transients lasting more than one year and exhibiting smooth declines. Our search returns 59 events, seven of which we classify as ANTs assumed to be driven by accretion onto supermassive black holes. We propose the remaining 52 are stochastic variability from regular supermassive black hole accretion rather than distinct transients. We supplement the seven ANTs with three nuclear transients in ZTF that fail the light curve selection but have clear single flares and spectra that do not resemble typical AGN. All of these 11 ANTs have a mid-infrared flare from an assumed dust echo, implying the ubiquity of dust around the black holes giving rise to ANTs. No events are more luminous than AT2021lwx, but one (ZTF19aamrjar) has twice the duration and a higher integrated energy release. On the other extreme, ZTF20abodaps reaches a luminosity close to AT2021lwx with a rise time $<20$\,d and that fades smoothly in $>600$\,d. We define a portion of rise-time versus flare amplitude space that selects ANTs with $\sim50$ per cent purity against variable active galactic nuclei. We calculate a volumetric rate of $\gtrsim 3\times10^{-11}$\,Mpc$^{-1}$\,yr$^{-1}$, consistent with the events being caused by tidal disruptions of intermediate and high-mass stars.

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Insights into Supermassive Black Hole Mergers from the Gravitational Wave Background

At the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics, participants of the rapid response workshop on the gravitational wave background explored discrepancies between experimental results and theoretical models for a background originating from supermassive black hole binary mergers. Underestimated theoretical and/or experimental uncertainties are likely to be the explanation. Another key focus was the wide variety of search methods for supermassive black hole binaries, with the conclusion that the most compelling detections would involve systems exhibiting both electromagnetic and gravitational wave signatures

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SN 2019odp: A Massive Oxygen-Rich Type Ib Supernova

We present and analyze observations of the Type Ib supernova (SN) 2019odp (a.k.a ZTF19abqwtfu) covering epochs within days of the explosion to the nebular phase at 360 d post-explosion. We discuss them in the context of recombination cooling emission for the early excess emission and consider progenitor models based on the nebular phase spectra. Our observations include photometric observations mainly in the optical and low to medium-resolution spectroscopic observations covering the complete observable time-range. We expand on existing methods to derive oxygen mass estimates from nebular phase spectroscopy. Our spectroscopic observations confirm the presence of He in the SN ejecta and we thus (re)classify it as a Type Ib supernova. From the pseudo-bolometric lightcurve we estimate a high ejecta mass $M_\text{ej} \sim 4 - 7~M_\odot$. The high ejecta mass, large nebular [O I]/[Ca II] line flux ratio ($1.2 - 1.9$) and an oxygen mass above $\gtrapprox 0.5\, M_\odot$ point towards a progenitor with pre-explosion mass higher than $18\,M_\odot$. The compact nature of the progenitor ($\lesssim 10\,R_\odot$) suggests a Wolf-Rayet (WR) star as progenitor.

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La Serena School for Data Science and the Spanish Virtual Observatory Schools: Initiatives Based on Hands on Experience

The worlds of Data Science (including big and/or federated data, machine learning, etc) and Astrophysics started merging almost two decades ago. For instance, around 2005, international initiatives such as the Virtual Observatory framework rose to standardize the way we publish and transfer data, enabling new tools such as VOSA (SED Virtual Observatory Analyzer) to come to existence and remain relevant today. More recently, new facilities like the Vera Rubin Observatory, serve as motivation to develop efficient and extremely fast (very often deep learning based) methodologies in order to fully exploit the informational content of the vast Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) dataset. However, fundamental changes in the way we explore and analyze data cannot permeate in the "astrophysical sociology and idiosyncrasy" without adequate training. In this talk, I will focus on one specific initiative that has been extremely successful and is based on "learning by doing": the La Serena School for Data Science. I will also briefly touch on a different successful approach: a series of schools organized by the Spanish Virtual Observatory. The common denominator among the two kinds of schools is to present the students with real scientific problems that benefit from the concepts / methodologies taught. On the other hand, the demographics targeted by both initiatives vary significantly and can represent examples of two "flavours" to be followed by others.

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SN 2021adxl: A luminous nearby interacting supernova in an extremely low metallicity environment

SN 2021adxl is a slowly evolving, luminous, Type IIn supernova with asymmetric emission line profiles, similar to the well-studied SN 2010jl. We present extensive optical, near-ultraviolet, and near-infrared photometry and spectroscopy covering ~1.5 years post discovery. SN 2021adxl occurred in an unusual environment, atop a vigorously star-forming region that is offset from its host galaxy core. The appearance of Ly-alpha, O II, as well as the compact core, would classify the host of SN 2021adxl as a Blueberry galaxy, analogous to the higher redshift Green Pea galaxies. Using several abundance indicators, we find a metallicity of the explosion environment of only 10% solar, the lowest reported metallicity for a Type IIn SN environment. SN 2021adxl reaches a peak magnitude of r ~ -20.2 mag and since discovery, SN 2021adxl has faded by only ~4 magnitudes in the r band with a cumulative radiated energy of ~1.5e50 erg over 18 months. SN 2021adxl shows strong signs of interaction with a complex circumstellar medium, seen by the detection of X-rays, revealed by the detection of coronal emission lines, and through multi-component hydrogen and helium profiles. In order to further understand this interaction, we model the Hα profile using a Monte-Carlo electron scattering code. The blueshifted high-velocity component is consistent with emission from a radially thin, spherical shell resulting in the broad emission components due to electron scattering. Using the velocity evolution of this emitting shell, we find that the SN ejecta collide with circumstellar material of at least 5 Msun, assuming a steady-state mass-loss rate of 4-6e-3 Msun per year for the first ~200 days of evolution. Continuing the observations of SN 2021adxl may reveal signatures of dust formation or an infrared excess, similar to that seen for SN 2010jl.

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PKS~J0805$-$0111: A Second Owens Valley Radio Observatory Blazar Showing Highly Significant Sinusoidal Radio Variability -- The Tip of the Iceberg

Owens Valley Radio Observatory (OVRO) observations of supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) candidate PKS~2131$-$021 revealed, for the first time, six likely characteristics of the phenomenology exhibited by SMBHB in blazars, of which the most unexpected and critical is sinusoidal flux density variations. We have now identified a second blazar, PKS~J0805$-$0111, showing significant sinusoidal variations, with an observed period that translates to $1.422 \pm 0.005$ yr in the rest frame of the $z = 1.388$ object. We generate $10^6$ simulated light curves to reproduce the radio variability characteristics of PKS~J0805$-$0111, and show that the global probability, considering the \textit{look-elsewhere effect}, indicates that the observed periodicity can be attributed to the red noise tail of the power spectral density, with a $p_0$ value of $7.8 \times 10^{-5}$ (i.e. 3.78$σ$). PKS J0805$-$0111 displays all six characteristics observed in PKS 2131$-$021. Taking into account the well-defined OVRO sample size, the false positive probability $\sim 0.22$, but the rare behavior makes this a strong SMBHB candidate. The discovery of a second SMBHB candidate exhibiting these rare characteristics reveals that PKS~2131$-$021 is not a unique, isolated case. With these two strong cases we are clearly seeing only the tip of the iceberg. We estimate that the number of SMBHB candidates amongst blazars $\sim$ 1 in 100.

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ZTF SN Ia DR2: The spectral diversity of Type Ia supernovae in a volume-limited sample

More than 3000 spectroscopically confirmed Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are presented in the Zwicky Transient Facility SN Ia Data Release 2 (ZTF DR2). In this paper, we detail the spectral properties of 482 SNe Ia near maximum light, up to a redshift limit of $z$ $\leq$ 0.06. We measure the velocities and pseudo-equivalent widths (pEW) of key spectral features (Si II $λ$5972 and Si II $λ$6355) and investigate the relation between the properties of the spectral features and the photometric properties from the SALT2 light-curve parameters as a function of spectroscopic sub-class. We discuss the non-negligible impact of host galaxy contamination on SN Ia spectral classifications, as well as investigate the accuracy of spectral template matching of the ZTF DR2 sample. We define a new subclass of underluminous SNe Ia (`04gs-like') that lie spectroscopically between normal SNe Ia and transitional 86G-like SNe Ia (stronger Si II $λ$5972 than normal SNe Ia but significantly weaker Ti II features than `86G-like' SNe). We model these `04gs-like' SN Ia spectra using the radiative-transfer spectral synthesis code tardis and show that cooler temperatures alone are unable to explain their spectra; some changes in elemental abundances are also required. However, the broad continuity in spectral properties seen from bright (`91T-like') to faint normal SN Ia, including the transitional and 91bg-like SNe Ia, suggests that variations within a single explosion model may be able to explain their behaviour.

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SDSS1335+0728: The awakening of a $\sim 10^6 M_{\odot}$ black hole

The galaxy SDSS1335+0728, which had exhibited no prior optical variations during the preceding two decades, began showing significant nuclear variability in the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) alert stream from December 2019 (as ZTF19acnskyy). Its behaviour suggests that SDSS1335+0728 hosts a $\sim 10^6 M_{\odot}$ black hole (BH) that is currently in the process of `turning on'. We present a multi-wavelength photometric analysis and spectroscopic follow-up performed with the aim of better understanding the origin of the nuclear variations detected in SDSS1335+0728. We used archival photometry and spectroscopic data to study the state of SDSS1335+0728 prior to December 2019, and new observations from Swift, SOAR/Goodman, VLT/X-shooter, and Keck/LRIS taken after its turn-on to characterise its current state. We find that: (a) since 2021, the UV flux is four times brighter than the flux reported by GALEX in 2004; (b) since June 2022, the mid-infrared flux has risen more than two times, and the W1-W2 WISE colour has become redder; (c) since February 2024, the source has begun showing X-ray emission; (d) the narrow emission line ratios are now consistent with a more energetic ionising continuum; (e) broad emission lines are not detected; and (f) the [OIII] line increased its flux $\sim 3.6$ years after the first ZTF alert, which implies a relatively compact narrow-line-emitting region. We conclude that the variations observed in SDSS1335+0728 could be either explained by an AGN that is just turning on or by an exotic tidal disruption event (TDE). If the former is true, SDSS1335+0728 is one of the strongest cases of an AGN observed in the process of activating. If the latter, it would correspond to the longest and faintest TDE ever observed (or another class of still unknown nuclear transient). Future observations of SDSS1335+0728 are crucial to further understand its behaviour.

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XMM-Newton-discovered Fast X-ray Transients: Host galaxies and limits on contemporaneous detections of optical counterparts

Extragalactic fast X-ray transients (FXTs) are a class of soft (0.3-10 keV) X-ray transients lasting a few hundred seconds to several hours. Several progenitor mechanisms have been suggested to produce FXTs, including supernova shock breakouts, binary neutron star mergers, or tidal disruptions involving an intermediate-mass black hole and a white dwarf. We present detailed host studies, including spectroscopic observations of the host galaxies of 7 XMM-Newton-discovered FXTs. The candidate hosts lie at redshifts 0.0928 $< z <$ 0.645 implying peak X-ray luminosities of 10$^{43}$ erg s$^{-1}$ $< L_X <$ 10$^{45}$ erg s$^{-1}$,and physical offsets of 1 kpc < $r_\mathrm{proj}$ < 22 kpc. These observations increase the number of FXTs with a spectroscopic redshift measurement by a factor of 2, although we note that one event is re-identified as a Galactic flare star. We infer host star formation rates and stellar masses by fitting the combined spectroscopic and archival photometric data. We also report on a contemporaneous optical counterpart search to the FXTs in Pan-STARRS and ATLAS by performing forced photometry at the position of the FXTs. We do not find any counterpart in our search. Given our constraints, including peak X-ray luminosities, optical limits, and host properties, we find that XRT 110621 is consistent with a SN SBO event. Spectroscopic redshifts of likely host galaxies for four events imply peak X-ray luminosities that are too high to be consistent with SN SBOs, but we are unable to discard either the BNS or WD-IMBH TDE scenarios for these FXTs.

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Four new eclipsing accreting ultracompact white dwarf binaries found with the Zwicky Transient Facility

Context. Accreting ultracompact binaries contain a white dwarf that is accreting from a degenerate object and have orbital periods shorter than 65 minutes. Aims. The aims of this letter are to report the discovery and the orbital period of four new eclipsing accreting ultracompact binaries found using the Zwicky Transient Facility, and to discuss their photometric properties. Methods. We searched through a list of 4171 dwarf novae compiled using the Zwicky Transient Facility and used the Box Least Square method to search for periodic signals in the data. Results. We found four new eclipsing accreting ultracompact binaries with orbital periods between 25.9-56 minutes, one of which is previously published as an AM CVn, while the other three systems are new discoveries. The other two shorter period systems are likely also AM CVn systems, while the longest period system with a period of 56 minutes shows multiple super-outbursts observed in two years which is more consistent with it being a Helium-CV.

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Improving the selection of changing-look AGNs through multi-wavelength photometric variability

We present second epoch optical spectra for 30 changing-look (CL) candidates found by searching for Type-1 optical variability in a sample of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) spectroscopically classified as Type 2. We use a random-forest-based light curve classifier and spectroscopic follow-up, confirming 50 per cent of candidates as turning-on CLs. In order to improve this selection method and to better understand the nature of the not-confirmed CL candidates, we perform a multi-wavelength variability analysis including optical, mid-infrared (MIR) and X-ray data, and compare the results from the confirmed and not-confirmed CLs identified in this work. We find that most of the not-confirmed CLs are consistent with weak Type 1s dominated by host-galaxy contributions, showing weaker optical and MIR variability. On the contrary, the confirmed CLs present stronger optical fluctuations and experience a long (from five to ten years) increase in their MIR fluxes and the colour W1-W2 over time. In the 0.2-2.3 keV band, at least four out of 11 CLs with available SRG/eROSITA detections have increased their flux in comparison with archival upper limits. These common features allow us to select the most promising CLs from our list of candidates, leading to nine sources with similar multi-wavelength photometric properties to our CL sample. The use of machine learning algorithms with optical and MIR light curves will be very useful to identify CLs in future large-scale surveys.

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SN2020qlb: A hydrogen-poor superluminous supernova with well-characterized light curve undulations

SN\,2020qlb (ZTF20abobpcb) is a hydrogen-poor superluminous supernova (SLSN-I) that is among the most luminous (maximum M$_{g} = -22.25$ mag) and that has one of the longest rise times (77 days from explosion to maximum). We estimate the total radiated energy to be $>2.1\times10^{51}$ erg. SN\,2020qlb has a well-sampled light curve that exhibits clear near and post peak undulations, a phenomenon seen in other SLSNe, whose physical origin is still unknown. We discuss the potential power source of this immense explosion as well as the mechanisms behind its observed light curve undulations. We analyze photospheric spectra and compare them to other SLSNe-I. We constructed the bolometric light curve using photometry from a large data set of observations from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), Liverpool Telescope (LT), and Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory and compare it with radioactive, circumstellar interaction and magnetar models. Model residuals and light curve polynomial fit residuals are analyzed to estimate the undulation timescale and amplitude. We also determine host galaxy properties based on imaging and spectroscopy data, including a detection of the [O III]$λ$4363, auroral line, allowing for a direct metallicity measurement. We rule out the Arnett $^{56}$Ni decay model for SN\,2020qlb's light curve due to unphysical parameter results. Our most favored power source is the magnetic dipole spin-down energy deposition of a magnetar. Two to three near peak oscillations, intriguingly similar to those of SN\,2015bn, were found in the magnetar model residuals with a timescale of $32\pm6$ days and an amplitude of 6$\%$ of peak luminosity. We rule out centrally located undulation sources due to timescale considerations; and we favor the result of ejecta interactions with circumstellar material (CSM) density fluctuations as the source of the undulations.

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Applications of AI in Astronomy

We provide a brief, and inevitably incomplete overview of the use of Machine Learning (ML) and other AI methods in astronomy, astrophysics, and cosmology. Astronomy entered the big data era with the first digital sky surveys in the early 1990s and the resulting Terascale data sets, which required automating of many data processing and analysis tasks, for example the star-galaxy separation, with billions of feature vectors in hundreds of dimensions. The exponential data growth continued, with the rise of synoptic sky surveys and the Time Domain Astronomy, with the resulting Petascale data streams and the need for a real-time processing, classification, and decision making. A broad variety of classification and clustering methods have been applied for these tasks, and this remains a very active area of research. Over the past decade we have seen an exponential growth of the astronomical literature involving a variety of ML/AI applications of an ever increasing complexity and sophistication. ML and AI are now a standard part of the astronomical toolkit. As the data complexity continues to increase, we anticipate further advances leading towards a collaborative human-AI discovery.

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Discovery and Follow-up of ASASSN-19dj: An X-ray and UV Luminous TDE in an Extreme Post-Starburst Galaxy

We present observations of ASASSN-19dj, a nearby tidal disruption event (TDE) discovered in the post-starburst galaxy KUG 0810+227 by the All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae (ASAS-SN) at a distance of d $\simeq98$ Mpc. We observed ASASSN-19dj from $-$21 to 392 d relative to peak ultraviolet (UV)/optical emission using high-cadence, multiwavelength spectroscopy and photometry. From the ASAS-SN $g$-band data, we determine that the TDE began to brighten on 2019 February 6.8 and for the first 16 d the rise was consistent with a flux $\propto t^2$ power-law. ASASSN-19dj peaked in the UV/optical on 2019 March 6.5 (MJD = 58548.5) at a bolometric luminosity of $L = (6.2 \pm 0.2) \times 10^{44} \text{ erg s}^{-1}$. Initially remaining roughly constant in X-rays and slowly fading in the UV/optical, the X-ray flux increased by over an order of magnitude $\sim$225 d after peak, resulting from the expansion of the X-ray emitting region. The late-time X-ray emission is well fitted by a blackbody with an effective radius of $\sim1 \times 10^{12} \text{ cm}$ and a temperature of $\sim6 \times 10^{5} \text{ K}$. The X-ray hardness ratio becomes softer after brightening and then returns to a harder state as the X-rays fade. Analysis of Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey images reveals a nuclear outburst roughly 14.5 yr earlier with a smooth decline and a luminosity of $L_V\geq1.4 \times 10^{43}$ erg s$^{-1}$, although the nature of the flare is unknown. ASASSN-19dj occurred in the most extreme post-starburst galaxy yet to host a TDE, with Lick H$δ_{A}$ = $7.67\pm0.17$ Å.

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The WISE-2MASS Survey: Red Quasars Into the Radio Quiet Regime

We present a highly complete sample of broad-line (Type 1) QSOs out to z ~ 3 selected by their mid-infrared colors, a method that is minimally affected by dust reddening. We remove host galaxy emission from the spectra and fit for excess reddening in the residual QSOs, resulting in a Gaussian distribution of colors for unreddened (blue) QSOs, with a tail extending toward heavily reddened (red) QSOs, defined as having E(B - V) > 0.25. This radio-independent selection method enables us to compare red and blue QSO radio properties in both the FIRST (1.4 GHz) and VLASS (2 - 4 GHz) surveys. Consistent with recent results from optically-selected QSOs from SDSS, we find that red QSOs have a significantly higher detection fraction and a higher fraction of compact radio morphologies at both frequencies. We employ radio stacking to investigate the median radio properties of the QSOs including those that are undetected in FIRST and VLASS, finding that red QSOs have significantly brighter radio emission and steeper radio spectral slopes compared with blue QSOs. Finally, we find that the incidence of red QSOs is strongly luminosity dependent, where red QSOs make up > 40% of all QSOs at the highest luminosities. Overall, red QSOs comprise ~ 40% of higher luminosity QSOs, dropping to only a few percent at lower luminosities. Furthermore, red QSOs make up a larger percentage of the radio-detected QSO population. We argue that dusty AGN-driven winds are responsible for both the obscuration as well as excess radio emission seen in red QSOs.

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PGIR 20eid (SN2020qmp): A Type IIP Supernova at 15.6 Mpc discovered by the Palomar Gattini-IR survey

We present a detailed analysis of SN 2020qmp, a nearby type IIP core-collapse supernova (CCSN), discovered by the Palomar Gattini-IR (PGIR) survey in the galaxy UGC07125. We illustrate how the multiwavelength study of this event helps our general understanding of stellar progenitors and circumstellar medium (CSM) interactions in CCSNe. We also highlight the importance of near-infrared (NIR) surveys for early detections of SNe in dusty environments. SN 2020qmp displays characteristic hydrogen lines in its optical spectra, as well as a plateau in its optical LC, hallmarks of a type IIP SN. We do not detect linear polarization during the plateau phase, with a 3 sigma upper limit of 0.78%. Through hydrodynamical LC modeling and an analysis of its nebular spectra, we estimate a progenitor mass of around 11 solar masses, and an explosion energy of around 0.8e51 erg. We find that the spectral energy distribution cannot be explained by a simple CSM interaction model, assuming a constant shock velocity and steady mass-loss rate, and the excess X-ray luminosity compared with the synchrotron radio luminosity suggests deviations from equipartition. Finally, we demonstrate the advantages of NIR surveys over optical surveys for the detection of dust-obscured CCSNe in the local universe. Specifically, our simulations show that the Wide-Field Infrared Transient Explorer will detect about 14 more CCSNe out of 75 expected in its footprint within 40 Mpc, over five years than an optical survey equivalent to the Zwicky Transient Facility would detect. We have determined or constrained the main properties of SN 2020qmp and of its progenitor, highlighting the value of multiwavelength follow-up observations of nearby CCSNe. We have also shown that forthcoming NIR surveys will finally enable us to do a nearly complete census of CCSNe in the local universe.

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Constraining Type Ia supernova explosions and early flux excesses with the Zwicky Transient Factory

In the new era of time-domain surveys Type Ia supernovae are being caught sooner after explosion, which has exposed significant variation in their early light curves. Two driving factors for early time evolution are the distribution of nickel in the ejecta and the presence of flux excesses of various causes. We perform an analysis of the largest young SN Ia sample to date. We compare 115 SN Ia light curves from the Zwicky Transient Facility to the turtls model grid containing light curves of Chandrasekhar-mass explosions with a range of nickel masses, nickel distributions and explosion energies. We find that the majority of our observed light curves are well reproduced by Chandrasekhar-mass explosion models with a preference for highly extended nickel distributions. We identify six SNe Ia with an early-time flux excess in our g- and r-band data (four `blue' and two `red' flux excesses). We find an intrinsic rate of 18+/-11 per cent of early flux excesses in SNe Ia at z < 0.07, based on three detected flux excesses out of 30 (10 per cent) observed SNe Ia with a simulated efficiency of 57 per cent. This is comparable to rates of flux excesses in the literature but also accounts for detection efficiencies. Two of these events are mostly consistent with CSM interaction, while the other four have longer lifetimes in agreement with companion interaction and nickel-clump models. We find a higher frequency of flux excesses in 91T/99aa-like events (44+/-13 per cent).

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