arXiv subjects

M. J. Olascoaga

Publications and source records attributed to M. J. Olascoaga.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Learning effective Sargassum transport dynamics from limited drifter observations

Floating-material transport is influenced by unresolved processes that are often absent from available circulation products. We develop a data-driven transport-learning framework for learning effective transport corrections from limited Lagrangian observations using physically motivated ocean--atmosphere diagnostics and finite-memory representations motivated in part by inertial-particle memory effects. The diagnostic representation is analyzed through predictive and sparse symbolic-discovery approaches under leave-one-trajectory-out validation. Applications to Sargassum-following drifters in the Puerto Rico region and the Gulf Stream show that the diagnostics contain transport-relevant information beyond the baseline circulation products. Multilayer perceptron (MLP) ensembles provide flexible predictive trajectory corrections, while Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) tests whether instantaneous or delayed sparse symbolic transport structure can be extracted from the diagnostics. The results differ across flow regimes: (i) in Puerto Rico, delayed sparse symbolic corrections provide modest but systematic improvement; (ii) in the Gulf Stream application, dynamically useful sparse symbolic corrections remain primarily instantaneous even though delayed predictive information persists. These results support finite-memory transport effects in coarse-grained floating-material transport while also illustrating the difficulty of obtaining stable delayed sparse symbolic closures.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Transition path theory insights into hurricane rapid intensification

We explore hurricane and ocean reanalysis data to understand how rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones is impacted by the upper ocean density structure, with an emphasis on barrier layer (BL) thickness and thermocline depth in the eastern Caribbean Sea and adjacent western tropical North Atlantic. This analysis leverages transition path theory (TPT), supported by basic statistical methods. In TPT, Markov chains are constructed by discretizing data series related to weather system intensity, changes in intensity, translational speed, and BL thickness and thermocline depth. These series are viewed as trajectories in abstract state spaces, following a memoryless stochastic process. RI imminence is rigorously framed using a newly derived TPT statistic, which gives the time distribution to first reach a target -- the RI state -- from a source -- for instance, the state determined by a certain BL range and system intensity -- conditional on connecting paths exhibiting minimal detours. Increased RI frequency is observed in the eastern Caribbean and nearby Atlantic, influenced by river runoff, primarily in tropical storms and category 2 hurricanes. RI frequently correlates with a well-developed BL; however, increased translational speed is necessary for RI. TPT shows a stronger connection between RI and thermocline depth than BL presence, with RI likelihood rising for hurricanes with a thin BL, especially category 1. Across all strength categories, a deep thermocline consistently elevates RI probability, a factor missed by basic statistical analysis. Furthermore, translational speed is crucial, with faster, stronger hurricanes more susceptible to RI, while slower systems are less so.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Properties and baroclinic instability of stratified thermal upper-ocean flow

We study the properties of, and investigate the stability of a baroclinic zonal current in, a thermal rotating shallow-water model, sometimes called \emph{Ripa's model}, featuring stratification for quasigeostrophic upper-ocean dynamics. The model has Lie--Poisson Hamiltonian structure. In addition to Casimirs, the model supports weak Casimirs forming the kernel of the Lie--Poisson bracket for the potential vorticity evolution independent of the details of the buoyancy as this is advected under the flow. The model sustains Rossby waves and a neutral model, whose spurious growth is prevented by a positive-definite integral, quadratic on the deviation from the motionless state. A baroclinic zonal jet with vertical curvature is found to be spectrally stable for specific configurations of the gradients of layer thickness, vertically averaged buoyancy, and buoyancy frequency. Only a subset of such states was found Lyapunov stable using the available integrals, except the weak Casimirs, whose role in constraining stratified thermal flow remains to be understood. The existence of Lyapunov-stable states enabled us to \emph{a priori} bound the nonlinear growth of perturbations to spectrally unstable states. Our results do not support the generality of earlier numerical evidence on the suppression of submesoscale wave activity as a result of the inclusion of stratification in thermal shallow-water theory, which we supported with direct numerical simulations.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

Physics-informed laboratory estimation of Sargassum windage

A recent Maxey--Riley theory for \sarg raft motion, which models a raft as a network of elastically interacting finite-size, buoyant particles, predicts the carrying flow velocity to be given by the weighted sum of the water and air velocities $(1-α)\mathbf{v} + α\mathbf w$. The theory provides a closed formula for parameter $α$, referred to as \emph{windage}, depending on water-to-particle-density ratio or buoyancy ($δ$). From a series of laboratory experiments in an air--water stream flume facility under controlled conditions, we estimate $α$ ranging from 0.02 to 0.96\pct. On average, our windage estimates can be up to 9 times smaller than considered in conventional \emph{Sargassum} raft transport modeling, wherein it is customary to add a fraction of $\mathbf w$ to $\mathbf{v}$ chosen in an ad-hoc piecemeal manner. Using the formula provided by the Maxey--Riley theory, we estimate $δ$ ranging from 1.00 to 1.49. This is consistent with direct $δ$ measurements, ranging from 0.9 to 1.25, which provide support for our $α$ estimation.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

Stability of temporal statistics in Transition Path Theory with sparse data

Transition Path Theory (TPT) provides a rigorous statistical characterization of the ensemble of trajectories connecting directly, i.e., without detours, two disconnected (sets of) states in a Markov chain, a stochastic process that undergoes transitions from one state to another with probability depending on the state attained in the previous step. Markov chains can be constructed using trajectory data via counting of transitions between cells covering the domain spanned by trajectories. With sparse trajectory data, the use of regular cells is observed to result in unstable estimates of the total duration of transition paths. Using Voronoi cells resulting from k-means clustering of the trajectory data, we obtain stable estimates of this TPT statistic, which is generalized to frame the remaining duration of transition paths, a new TPT statistic suitable for investigating connectivity.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2022

Exploring the use of Transition Path Theory in building an oil spill prediction scheme

The Transition Path Theory (TPT) of complex systems has proven a robust means for statistically characterizing the ensemble of trajectories that connect any two preset flow regions, say $\mathcal A$ and $\mathcal B$, directly. More specifically, transition paths are such that they start in $\mathcal A$ and then go to $\mathcal B$ without detouring back to $\mathcal A$ or $\mathcal B$. This way, they make an effective contribution to the transport from $\mathcal A$ to $\mathcal B$. Here, we explore its use for building a scheme that enables predicting the evolution of an oil spill in the ocean. This involves appropriately adapting TPT such that it includes a reservoir that pumps oil into a typically open domain. Additionally, we lift up the restriction of the oil not to return to the spill site en route to a region that there is interest to be protected. TPT is applied on oil trajectories available up to the present, e.g., as integrated using velocities produced by a data assimilative system or as inferred from high-frequency radars, to make a prediction of transition oil paths beyond, without relying on forecasted oil trajectories. As a proof of concept we consider a hypothetical oil spill in the Trion oil field, under development within the Perdido Foldbelt in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and the \emph{Deepwater Horizon} oil spill. This is done using trajectories integrated from climatological and hindcast surface velocity and winds as well as produced by satellite-tracked surface drifting buoys, in each case discretized into a Markov chain that provides a framework for the TPT-based prediction.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

Dynamical geography and transition paths of Sargassum in the tropical Atlantic

By analyzing a time-homogeneous Markov chain constructed using trajectories of undrogued drifting buoys from the NOAA's Global Drifter Program, we find that probability density can distribute in a manner that resembles very closely the recently observed recurrent belt of high Sargassum density in the tropical Atlantic between 5--10$^{\circ}$N, coined the \emph{Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt} (\emph{GASB}). A spectral analysis of the associated transition matrix further unveils a forward attracting almost-invariant set in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a corresponding basin of attraction disconnected from the Sargasso Sea, but including the nutrient-rich regions around the Amazon and Orinoco rivers mouths and also the upwelling system off the northern coast of west Africa. This represents a data-based inference of potential remote sources of Sargassum recurrently invading the Intra-Americas Seas (IAS). By further applying Transition Path Theory (TPT) on the data-derived Markov chain model, two potential pathways for Sargassum into the IAS from the upwelling system off the coast of Africa are revealed. One TPT-inferred pathway takes place along the GASB. The second pathway is more southern and slower, first going through the Gulf of Guinea, then across the tropical Atlantic toward the mouth of the Amazon River, and finally along the northeastern South American margin. The existence of such a southern TPT-inferred pathway may have consequences for bloom stimulation by nutrients from river runoff.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

Sampling--Dependent Transition Paths of Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water

In this note, we apply Transition Path Theory (TPT) from Markov chains to shed light on the problem of Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) equatorward export. A recent analysis of observed trajectories of submerged floats demanded revision of the traditional abyssal circulation theory, which postulates that ISOW should steadily flow along a deep boundary current (DBC) around the subpolar North Atlantic prior to exiting it. The TPT analyses carried out here allow to focus the attention on the portions of flow from the origin of ISOW to the region where ISOW exits the subpolar North Atlantic and suggest that insufficient sampling may be biasing the aforementioned demand. The analyses, appropriately adapted to represent a continuous input of ISOW, are carried out on three time-homogeneous Markov chains modeling the ISOW flow. One is constructed using a high number of simulated trajectories homogeneously covering the flow domain. The other two use much fewer trajectories which heterogeneously cover the domain. The trajectories in the latter two chains are observed trajectories or simulated trajectories subsampled at the observed frequency. While the densely sampled chain supports a well-defined DBC, the more heterogeneously sampled chains do not, irrespective of whether observed or simulated trajectories are used. Studying the sampling sensitivity of the Markov chains, we can give recommendations for enlarging the existing float dataset to improve the significance of conclusions about time-asymptotic aspects of the ISOW circulation.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

Transition paths of North Atlantic Deep Water

We use Transition Path Theory (TPT) to frame, in a statistically more robust fashion than earlier analyses, equatorward routes of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) in the subpolar North Atlantic. TPT is applied on all available RAFOS and Argo floats in the area by means of a discretization of the Lagrangian dynamics described by their trajectories. By considering floats at different depths, we investigate transition paths of NADW in its upper (UNADW) and lower (LNADW) layers. We find that the majority of UNADW transition paths sourced in the Labrador and southwestern Irminger Seas reach the western side of a target arranged zonally along the southern edge of the subpolar North Atlantic domain visited by the floats. This is accomplished in the form of a well-organized deep boundary current (DBC). LNADW transition paths sourced west of the Reykjanes Ridge reveal a similar pattern, while those sourced east of the ridge are found to hit the western side of the target via a DBC and also several other places along it in a less organized fashion, indicating southward flow along the eastern and western flanks of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Naked-eye inspection of trajectories suggest generally much more diffusive equatorward NADW routes. A source-independent dynamical decomposition of the flow domain into analogous backward-time basins of attraction, beyond the reach of direct inspection of trajectories, reveals a much wider influence of the western side of the target for UNADW than for LNADW. For UNADW, the average expected duration of the pathways from the Labrador and Irminger Seas was found to be of 2 to 3 years. For LNADW, the duration was found to be influenced by the Reykjanes Ridge, being as long as 8 years from the western side of the ridge and of about 3 years on average from its eastern side.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

Carriers of \emph{Sargassum} and mechanism for coastal inundation in the Caribbean Sea

We identify effective carriers of \emph{Sargassum} in the Caribbean Sea and describe a mechanism for coastal choking. Revealed from satellite altimetry, the carriers of \emph{Sargassum} are mesoscale eddies (vortices of 50-km radius or larger) with coherent material (i.e., fluid) boundaries. These are observer-independent -- \emph{unlike} eddy boundaries identified with instantaneously closed streamlines of the altimetric sea-surface height field -- and furthermore harbor finite-time attractors for networks of elastically connected finite-size buoyant or "inertial" particles dragged by ocean currents and winds, a mathematical abstraction of \emph{Sargassum} rafts. The mechanism of coastal inundation, identified using a minimal model of surface-intensified Caribbean Sea eddies, is thermal instability in the presence of bottom topography.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Clustering of marine-debris- and \emph{Sargassum}-like drifters explained by inertial particle dynamics}

Drifters designed to mimic floating marine debris and small patches of pelagic \emph{Sargassum} were satellite tracked in four regions across the North Atlantic. Though subjected to the same initial conditions at each site, the tracks of different drifters quickly diverged after deployment. We explain the clustering of drifter types using a recent Maxey-Riley theory for surface ocean inertial particle dynamics applied on multidata-based mesoscale ocean currents and winds from reanalysis. Simulated trajectories of objects at the air-sea interface are significantly improved when represented as inertial (accounting for buoyancy and size), rather than as perfectly Lagrangian (fluid following) particles. Separation distances between simulated and observed trajectories were substantially smaller for debris-like drifters than for \emph{Sargassum}-like drifters, suggesting that additional consideration of its physical properties relative to fluid velocities may be useful. Our findings can be applied to model variability in movements and distribution of diverse objects floating at the ocean surface.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2019

Observation and quantification of inertial effects on the drift of floating objects at the ocean surface

We present results from an experiment designed to better understand the mechanism by which ocean currents and winds control flotsam drift. The experiment consisted in deploying in the Florida Current and subsequently satellite tracking specially designed drifting buoys of varied sizes, buoyancies, and shapes. We explain the differences in the trajectories described by the special drifters as a result of their inertia, primarily buoyancy, which constrains the ability of the drifters to adapt their velocities to instantaneous changes in the ocean current and wind that define the carrying flow field. Our explanation of the observed behavior follows from the application of a recently proposed Maxey--Riley theory for the motion of finite-size particles floating at the surface ocean. The nature of the carrying flow and the domain of validity of the theory are clarified, and a closure proposal is made to fully determine its parameters in terms of the carrying fluid system properties and inertial particle characteristics.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2019

Building a Maxey--Riley framework for surface ocean inertial particle dynamics

A framework for the study of surface ocean inertial particle motion is built from the Maxey--Riley set. A new set is obtained by vertically averaging each term of the original set, adapted to account for Earth's rotation effects, across the extent of a sufficiently small spherical particle that floats at an assumed unperturbed air--sea interface with unsteady nonuniform winds and ocean currents above and below, respectively. The inertial particle velocity is shown to exponentially decay in time to a velocity that lies close to an average of seawater and air velocities, weighted by a function of the seawater-to-particle density ratio. Such a weighted average velocity turns out to fortuitously be of the type commonly discussed in the search-and-rescue literature, which alone cannot explain the observed role of anticyclonic mesoscale eddies as traps for marine debris or the formation of great garbage patches in the subtropical gyres, phenomena dominated by finite-size effects. A heuristic extension of the theory is proposed to describe the motion of nonspherical particles by means of a simple shape factor correction, and recommendations are made for incorporating wave-induced Stokes drift, and allowing for inhomogeneities of the carrying fluid density. The new Maxey--Riley set outperforms an ocean adaptation that ignored wind drag effects and the first reported adaption that attempted to incorporate them.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2019

Markov-chain-inspired search for MH370

Markov-chain models are constructed for the probabilistic description of the drift of marine debris from Malaysian Airlines flight MH370. En route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, the MH370 mysteriously disappeared in the southeastern Indian Ocean on 8 March 2014, somewhere along the arc of the 7th ping ring around the Inmarsat-3F1 satellite position when the airplane lost contact. The models are obtained by discretizing the motion of undrogued satellite-tracked surface drifting buoys from the global historical data bank. A spectral analysis, Bayesian estimation, and the computation of most probable paths between the Inmarsat arc and confirmed airplane debris beaching sites are shown to constrain the crash site, near 25$^{\circ}$S on the Inmarsat arc.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Enduring Lagrangian coherence of a Loop Current ring assessed using independent observations

Ocean flows are routinely inferred from low-resolution satellite altimetry measurements of sea surface height assuming a geostrophic balance. Recent nonlinear dynamical systems techniques have revealed that surface currents derived from altimetry can support mesoscale eddies with material boundaries that do not filament for many months, thereby representing effective transport mechanisms. However, the long-range Lagrangian coherence assessed for mesoscale eddy boundaries detected from altimetry is constrained by the impossibility of current altimeters to resolve ageostrophic submesoscale motions. These may act to prevent Lagrangian coherence from manifesting in the rigorous form described by the nonlinear dynamical systems theories. Here we use a combination of satellite ocean color and surface drifter trajectory data, rarely available simultaneously over an extended period of time, to provide observational evidence for the enduring Lagrangian coherence of a Loop Current ring detected from altimetry. We also seek indications of this behavior in the flow produced by a data-assimilative system which demonstrated ability to reproduce observed relative dispersion statistics down into the marginally submesoscale range. However, the simulated flow, total surface and subsurface or subsampled emulating altimetry, is not found to support the long-lasting Lagrangian coherence that characterizes the observed ring. This highlights the importance of the Lagrangian metrics produced by the nonlinear dynamical systems tools employed here in assessing model performance.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2017

Persistent Lagrangian transport patterns in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico

Persistent Lagrangian transport patterns at the ocean surface are revealed from Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) computed from daily climatological surface current velocities in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico (NWGoM). The velocities are produced by a submesoscale permitting regional ocean model of the Gulf of Mexico. The significance of the climatological LCSs (cLCSs) is supported with ensemble-mean drifter density evolutions from simulated and historical satellite-tracked drifter trajectories. A persistent attracting barrier between the NWGoM shelf and the deep ocean is effectively identified by a hook-like pattern associated with groups of overall strongly attracting cLCSs that extend along the shelf break. Localized reductions in the attraction rate along these overall strongly attracting cLCSs proximal to cross-shore oriented cLCSs identify a pathway for potential transport across the shelf break. Groups of overall weakly-attracting cLCSs are not seen to strongly constrain material transport. Tracers originating over the shelf tend to be trapped there by the hook-like pattern as they spread cyclonically. Tracers originating beyond the shelf tend to be initially attracted to the hook-like pattern as they spread anti-cyclonically and eventually over the deep ocean. The findings have important implications for the mitigation of contaminant accidents such as oil spills.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2017

Lagrangian dynamical geography of the Gulf of Mexico

We construct a Markov-chain representation of the surface-ocean Lagrangian dynamics in a region occupied by the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and adjacent portions of the Caribbean Sea and North Atlantic using satellite-tracked drifter trajectory data, the largest collection so far considered. From the analysis of the eigenvectors of the transition matrix associated with the chain, we identify almost-invariant attracting sets and their basins of attraction. With this information we decompose the GoM's geography into weakly dynamically interacting provinces, which constrain the connectivity between distant locations within the GoM. Offshore oil exploration, oil spill contingency planning, and fish larval connectivity assessment are among the many activities that can benefit from the dynamical information carried in the geography constructed here.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2016

The life cycle of a coherent Lagrangian Agulhas ring

We document the long-term evolution of an Agulhas ring detected from satellite altimetry using a technique from nonlinear dynamical systems that enables objective (i.e., observer-independent) eddy framing. Such objectively detected eddies have Lagrangian (material) boundaries that remain coherent (unfilamented) over the detection period. The ring preserves a quite compact material entity for a period of about 2 years even after most initial coherence is lost within 5 months after detection. We attribute this to the successive development of short-term coherent material boundaries around the ring. These boundaries provide effective short-term shielding for the ring, which prevents a large fraction of the ring's interior from being mixed with the ambient turbulent flow. We show that such coherence regain events cannot be inferred from Eulerian analysis. This process is terminated by a ring-splitting event which marks the ring demise, near the South American coast. The genesis of the ring is characterized by a ring-merging event away from the Agulhas retroflection, followed by a 4-month-long partial coherence stage, scenario that is quite different than a simple current occlusion and subsequent eddy pinch off.

physics.ao-ph↗