arXiv subjects

M. J. Rutala

Publications and source records attributed to M. J. Rutala.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

New Models of Jupiter's Magnetopause and Bow Shock through the Juno Prime Mission: Probabilistic Location, Shape, and Internally-driven Variation

The interaction between Jupiter's magnetosphere and the solar wind is not well-constrained: while internal energetic plasma processes are thought to dominate plasma circulation, the solar wind nonetheless exerts significant control over the shape and scale of the whole structure. To better constrain this interaction, we derive new functional forms for Jupiter's magnetopause and bow shock using data from the $Ulysses$, Galileo, Cassini, and Juno missions and calibrated solar wind estimates from the Multi-Model Ensemble System for the Heliosphere (MMESH). We design an empirical Bayesian model to estimate the locations of the boundaries using a Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, expanding our model to sample all times, not only boundary crossing events. The boundary surfaces which best describe the data are thus estimated without the need for a full, physics-based magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) treatment of the Jovian magnetosphere and the additional assumptions required for such. The new magnetopause model exhibits significant polar flattening and dawn-dusk asymmetry, and includes a narrowing of the magnetotail when compared to previous models. The new bow shock model is largely axisymmetric. Both boundary models describe surfaces which lie closer to Jupiter than previous models, which has important implications for the modern picture of Jupiter's dynamic magnetosphere and the expected science results of current and upcoming Jupiter-bound spacecraft. Applying these models to Juno's trajectory, we estimate that the spacecraft should be expected to spend ${\sim}19\%$ of each orbit in the magnetosheath and ${\sim}4\%$ of each orbit in the solar wind starting from Perijove 64 (PJ64, 21 July 2021).

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2024

A Virtual Solar Wind Monitor at Mars with Uncertainty Quantification using Gaussian Processes

Single spacecraft missions do not measure the pristine solar wind continuously because of the spacecrafts' orbital trajectory. The infrequent spatiotemporal cadence of measurement fundamentally limits conclusions about solar wind-magnetosphere coupling throughout the solar system. At Mars, such single spacecraft missions result in limitations for assessing the solar wind's role in causing lower altitude observations such as auroral dynamics or atmospheric loss. In this work, we detail the development of a virtual solar wind monitor from the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) mission; a single spacecraft. This virtual solar wind monitor provides a continuous estimate of the solar wind upstream from Mars with uncertainties. We specifically employ Gaussian process regression to estimate the upstream solar wind and uncertainty estimations that scale with the data sparsity of our real observations. This proxy enables continuous solar wind estimation at Mars with representative uncertainties for the majority of the time since since late 2014. We conclude by discussing suggested uses of this virtual solar wind monitor for statistical studies of the Mars space environment and heliosphere.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2024

A Multi-Model Ensemble System for the outer Heliosphere (MMESH): Solar Wind Conditions near Jupiter

How the solar wind influences the magnetospheres of the outer planets is a fundamentally important question, but is difficult to answer in the absence of consistent, simultaneous monitoring of the upstream solar wind and the large-scale dynamics internal to the magnetosphere. To compensate for the relative lack of in-situ data, propagation models are often used to estimate the ambient solar wind conditions at the outer planets for comparison to remote observations or in-situ measurements. This introduces another complication: the propagation of near-Earth solar wind measurements introduces difficult-to-assess uncertainties. Here, we present the Multi-Model Ensemble System for the outer Heliosphere (MMESH) to begin to address these issues, along with the resultant multi-model ensemble (MME) of the solar wind conditions near Jupiter. MMESH accepts as input any number of solar wind models together with contemporaneous in-situ spacecraft data. From these, the system characterizes typical uncertainties in model timing, quantifies how these uncertainties vary under different conditions, attempts to correct for systematic biases in the input model timing, and composes a MME with uncertainties from the results. For the case of the Jupiter-MME presented here, three solar wind propagation models were compared to in-situ measurements from the near-Jupiter spacecraft Ulysses and Juno which span diverse geometries and phases of the solar cycle, amounting to more than 14,000 hours of data over 2.5 decades. The MME gives the most-probable near-Jupiter solar wind conditions for times within the tested epoch, outperforming the input models and returning quantified estimates of uncertainty.

physics.space-ph↗