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M. J. Way

Publications and source records attributed to M. J. Way.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Proton Irradiation of Primitive Atmospheres of Young Exoplanets and early Earth: $N_{\mathrm{2}}O$ Greenhouse Warming and Prebiotic Synthesis

The emergence of habitable conditions on the early Earth and on rocky exoplanets requires persistent energy sources that can drive both prebiotic chemistry and climate warming under magnetically active young G to M stars. To quantify the contribution of stellar energetic particle (StEP) events associated with superflares to the atmospheric chemistry of young planets with primitive atmospheres, we carried out a suite of laboratory proton irradiation experiments on mildly reduced gas mixtures. We present first proton irradiation experiments of $N_{\mathrm{2}}$/$CO_{\mathrm{2}}$ rich gas mixtures that yield abundant nitrous oxide ($N_{\mathrm{2}}O$) at mixing ratios up to 1000 ppmv, together with amino acid precursors including glycine, corresponding to global production rates of order $2\times10^{10}$ kg/yr on the early Earth. Our photochemical modeling of StEP driven proton irradiation reproduces the experimentally inferred $N_{\mathrm{2}}O$ production rates and provides self-consistent atmospheric $N_{\mathrm{2}}O$ profiles. We then use these profiles of $N_{\mathrm{2}}O$ as input to a 3D global climate model to evaluate the radiative and climatic impact of StEP generated $N_{\mathrm{2}}O$ in primitive atmospheres representative of the early Earth and young rocky exoplanets. Our results show that frequent StEP events can help alleviate the faint young Sun paradox on the early Earth and can maintain temperate surface conditions on young rocky exoplanets beyond the outer edges of habitable zone, while simultaneously enhancing the buildup of prebiotic molecules. Together, these processes may constitute a robust pathway toward early planetary habitability.

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Exo-Geoscience Perspectives Beyond Habitability

This article reviews the emerging field of exo-geoscience, focusing on the geological and geophysical processes thought to influence the evolution and (eu)habitability of rocky exoplanets. We examine the possible roles of planetary interiors, tectonic regimes, continental coverage, volatile cycling, magnetic fields, and atmospheric composition and evolution in shaping long-term climate stability and biospheric potential. Comparisons with Earth and other planets in the Solar System highlight the diversity of planetary conditions and the rarity of conditions relevant to life. We also discuss contingency and convergence in planetary and biological evolution as they relate to the spread of life in the universe. The observational limits of current and planned missions are assessed, emphasizing the need for models that connect internal dynamics to detectable atmospheric and surface signatures as well as the need for laboratory measurements of planetary properties under a wide range of conditions. The large number of exoplanets promises opportunities for empirical and statistical studies of processes that may have occurred earlier in Earth's history, as well as of the other pathways rocky planets and biospheres may take. Thus, exo-geoscience provides a framework for interpreting exoplanet diversity and refining strategies for detecting life beyond the Solar System.

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Understanding Exoplanet Habitability: A Bayesian ML Framework for Predicting Atmospheric Absorption Spectra

The evolution of space technology in recent years, fueled by advancements in computing such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), has profoundly transformed our capacity to explore the cosmos. Missions like the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) have made information about distant objects more easily accessible, resulting in extensive amounts of valuable data. As part of this work-in-progress study, we are working to create an atmospheric absorption spectrum prediction model for exoplanets. The eventual model will be based on both collected observational spectra and synthetic spectral data generated by the ROCKE-3D general circulation model (GCM) developed by the climate modeling program at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). In this initial study, spline curves are used to describe the bin heights of simulated atmospheric absorption spectra as a function of one of the values of the planetary parameters. Bayesian Adaptive Exploration is then employed to identify areas of the planetary parameter space for which more data are needed to improve the model. The resulting system will be used as a forward model so that planetary parameters can be inferred given a planet's atmospheric absorption spectrum. This work is expected to contribute to a better understanding of exoplanetary properties and general exoplanet climates and habitability.

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TRAPPIST-1 d: Exo-Venus, Exo-Earth or Exo-Dead?

TRAPPIST-1 d is generally assumed to be at the boundary between a Venus-like world and an Earth-like world, although recently published works on TRAPPIST-1 b and c raise concerns that TRAPPIST-1 d may be similarly devoid of a substantial atmosphere. TRAPPIST-1 d is also relatively understudied in comparison with TRAPPIST-1 e. The latter has generally appeared to be within the habitable zone of most atmospheric modeling studies. Assuming that TRAPPIST-1 d still retains a substantial atmosphere, we demonstrate via a series of 3D general circulation model experiments using a dynamic ocean that the planet could reside within the habitable zone in a narrow parameter space. At the same time, it could also be an exo-Venus or exo-Dead-type world or in transition between between one of these. Studies like this can help distinguish between these types of worlds.

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Exploring Climate with Obliquity in a Variable-eccentricity Earth-like World

Exploring planetary systems similar to our solar system can provide a means to explore a large range of possibly temperate climates on Earth-like worlds. Rather than run hundreds of simulations with different eccentricities at fixed obliquities, our variable-eccentricity approach provides a means to cover an incredibly large parameter space. Herein Jupiter's orbital radius is moved substantially inward in two different scenarios, causing a forcing on Earth's eccentricity. In one case, the eccentricity of Earth varies from 0 to 0.27 over ~7000 yr for three different fixed obliquities (0°, 23°, and 45°). In another case, the eccentricity varies from 0 to 0.53 over ~9400 yr in a single case with zero obliquity. In all cases, we find that the climate remains stable, but regional habitability changes through time in unique ways. At the same time, the moist greenhouse state is approached but only when at the highest eccentricities.

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Synergies between Venus & Exoplanetary Observations

In this chapter we examine how our knowledge of present day Venus can inform terrestrial exoplanetary science and how exoplanetary science can inform our study of Venus. In a superficial way the contrasts in knowledge appear stark. We have been looking at Venus for millennia and studying it via telescopic observations for centuries. Spacecraft observations began with Mariner 2 in 1962 when we confirmed that Venus was a hothouse planet, rather than the tropical paradise science fiction pictured. As long as our level of exploration and understanding of Venus remains far below that of Mars, major questions will endure. On the other hand, exoplanetary science has grown leaps and bounds since the discovery of Pegasus 51b in 1995, not too long after the golden years of Venus spacecraft missions came to an end with the Magellan Mission in 1994. Multi-million to billion dollar/euro exoplanet focused spacecraft missions such as JWST, and its successors will be flown in the coming decades. At the same time, excitement about Venus exploration is blooming again with a number of confirmed and proposed missions in the coming decades from India, Russia, Japan, the European Space Agency and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. In this chapter, we review what is known and what we may discover tomorrow in complementary studies of Venus and its exoplanetary cousins.

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The long-term evolution of the atmosphere of Venus: processes and feedback mechanisms

This work reviews the long-term evolution of the atmosphere of Venus, and modulation of its composition by interior-exterior cycling. The formation and evolution of Venus's atmosphere, leading to contemporary surface conditions, remain hotly debated topics, and involve questions that tie into many disciplines. We explore these various inter-related mechanisms which shaped the evolution of the atmosphere, starting with the volatile sources and sinks. Going from the deep interior to the top of the atmosphere, we describe volcanic outgassing, surface atmosphere interactions, and atmosphere escape. Furthermore, we address more complex aspects of the history of Venus, including the role of Late Accretion impacts, how magnetic field generation is tied into long-term evolution, and the implications of geochemical and geodynamical feedback cycles for atmospheric evolution. We highlight plausible end-member evolutionary pathways that Venus could have followed, from accretion to its present-day state, based on modeling and observations. In a first scenario, the planet was desiccated by atmospheric escape during the magma ocean phase. In a second scenario, Venus could have harbored surface liquid water for long periods of time, until its temperate climate was destabilized and it entered a runaway greenhouse phase. In a third scenario, Venus's inefficient outgassing could have kept water inside the planet, where hydrogen was trapped in the core and the mantle was oxidized. We discuss existing evidence and future observations and missions required to refine our understanding of the planet's history and of the complex feedback cycles between the interior, surface, and atmosphere that have been operating in the past, present or future of Venus.

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Large-scale Volcanism and the Heat Death of Terrestrial Worlds

Large-scale volcanism has played a critical role in the long-term habitability of Earth. Contrary to widely held belief, volcanism, rather than impactors, has had the greatest influence on and bears most of the responsibility for large-scale mass extinction events throughout Earth's history. We examine the timing of large igneous provinces (LIPs) throughout Earth's history to estimate the likelihood of nearly simultaneous events that could drive a planet into an extreme moist or runaway greenhouse, leading to the end of volatile cycling and causing the heat death of formerly temperate terrestrial worlds. In one approach, we make a conservative estimate of the rate at which sets of near-simultaneous LIPs (pairs, triplets, and quartets) occur in a random history statistically the same as Earth's. We find that LIPs closer in time than 0.1-1 million yr are likely; significantly, this is less than the time over which terrestrial LIP environmental effects are known to persist. In another approach, we assess the cumulative effects with simulated time series consisting of randomly occurring LIP events with realistic time profiles. Both approaches support the conjecture that environmental impacts of LIPs, while narrowly avoiding grave effects on the climate history of Earth, could have been responsible for the heat death of our sister world Venus.

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Venus' Mass Spectra Show Signs of Disequilibria in the Middle Clouds

We present a re-examination of mass spectral data obtained from the Pioneer Venus Large Probe Neutral Mass Spectrometer. Our interpretations of differing trace chemical species are suggestive of redox disequilibria in Venus' middle clouds. Assignments to the data (at 51.3 km) include phosphine, hydrogen sulfide, nitrous acid, nitric acid, carbon monoxide, hydrochloric acid, hydrogen cyanide, ethane, and potentially ammonia, chlorous acid, and several tentative PxOy species. All parent ions were predicated upon assignment of corresponding fragmentation products, isotopologues, and atomic species. The data reveal parent ions at varying oxidation states, implying the presence of reducing power in the clouds, and illuminating the potential for chemistries yet to be discovered. When considering the hypothetical habitability of Venus' clouds, the assignments reveal a potential signature of anaerobic phosphorus metabolism (phosphine), an electron donor for anoxygenic photosynthesis (nitrite), and major constituents of the nitrogen cycle (nitrate, nitrite, ammonia, and N2).

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Venusian Habitable Climate Scenarios: Modeling Venus through time and applications to slowly rotating Venus-Like Exoplanets

One popular view of Venus' climate history describes a world that has spent much of its life with surface liquid water, plate tectonics, and a stable temperate climate. Part of the basis for this optimistic scenario is the high deuterium to hydrogen ratio from the Pioneer Venus mission that was interpreted to imply Venus had a shallow ocean's worth of water throughout much of its history. Another view is that Venus had a long lived (approximately 100 million year) primordial magma ocean with a CO2 and steam atmosphere. Venus' long lived steam atmosphere would sufficient time to dissociate most of the water vapor, allow significant hydrogen escape and oxidize the magma ocean. A third scenario is that Venus had surface water and habitable conditions early in its history for a short period of time (< 1 Gyr), but that a moist/runaway greenhouse took effect because of a gradually warming sun, leaving the planet desiccated ever since. Using a general circulation model we demonstrate the viability of the first scenario using the few observational constraints available. We further speculate that Large Igneous Provinces and the global resurfacing 100s of millions of years ago played key roles in ending the clement period in its history and presenting the Venus we see today. The results have implications for what astronomers term "the habitable zone," and if Venus-like exoplanets exist with clement conditions akin to modern Earth we propose to place them in what we term the "optimistic Venus zone."

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Climates of Warm Earth-Like Planets III: Fractional Habitability from a Water Cycle Perspective

The habitable fraction of a planet's surface is important for the detectability of surface biosignatures. The extent and distribution of habitable areas is influenced by external parameters that control the planet's climate, atmospheric circulation, and hydrological cycle. We explore these issues using the ROCKE-3D General Circulation Model, focusing on terrestrial water fluxes and thus the potential for the existence of complex life on land. Habitability is examined as a function of insolation and planet rotation for an Earth-like world with zero obliquity and eccentricity orbiting the Sun. We assess fractional habitability using an aridity index that measures the net supply of water to the land. Earth-like planets become ``superhabitable'' (a larger habitable surface area than Earth) as insolation and day-length increase because their climates become more equable, reminiscent of past warm periods on Earth when complex life was abundant and widespread. The most slowly rotating, most highly irradiated planets, though, occupy a hydrological regime unlike any on Earth, with extremely warm, humid conditions at high latitudes but little rain and subsurface water storage. Clouds increasingly obscure the surface as insolation increases, but visibility improves for modest increases in rotation period. Thus, moderately slowly rotating rocky planets with insolation near or somewhat greater than modern Earth's appear to be promising targets for surface characterization by a future direct imaging mission.

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Impact of Space Weather on Climate and Habitability of Terrestrial Type Exoplanets

The current progress in the detection of terrestrial type exoplanets has opened a new avenue in the characterization of exoplanetary atmospheres and in the search for biosignatures of life with the upcoming ground-based and space missions. To specify the conditions favorable for the origin, development and sustainment of life as we know it in other worlds, we need to understand the nature of astrospheric, atmospheric and surface environments of exoplanets in habitable zones around G-K-M dwarfs including our young Sun. Global environment is formed by propagated disturbances from the planet-hosting stars in the form of stellar flares, coronal mass ejections, energetic particles, and winds collectively known as astrospheric space weather. Its characterization will help in understanding how an exoplanetary ecosystem interacts with its host star, as well as in the specification of the physical, chemical and biochemical conditions that can create favorable and/or detrimental conditions for planetary climate and habitability along with evolution of planetary internal dynamics over geological timescales. A key linkage of (astro) physical, chemical, and geological processes can only be understood in the framework of interdisciplinary studies with the incorporation of progress in heliophysics, astrophysics, planetary and Earth sciences. The assessment of the impacts of host stars on the climate and habitability of terrestrial (exo)planets will significantly expand the current definition of the habitable zone to the biogenic zone and provide new observational strategies for searching for signatures of life. The major goal of this paper is to describe and discuss the current status and recent progress in this interdisciplinary field and to provide a new roadmap for the future development of the emerging field of exoplanetary science and astrobiology.

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Modeling a Transient Secondary Paleo-Lunar Atmosphere: 3-D Simulations and Analysis

The lunar history of water deposition, loss, and transport post-accretion has become an important consideration in relation to the possibility of a human outpost on the Moon. Very recent work has shown that a secondary primordial atmosphere of up to 10 mb could have been emplaced ~3.5 billion years ago due to volcanic outgassing from the maria. Using a zero dimensional chemistry model we demonstrate the temperature dependence of the resulting major atmospheric components (CO or CO$_2$). We use a three dimensional general circulation model to test the viability of such an atmosphere and derive its climatological characteristics. Based on these results we then conjecture on its capability to transport volatiles outgassed from the maria to the permanently shadowed regions at the poles. Our preliminary results demonstrate that atmospheres as low as 1 mb are viable and that permanent cold trapping of volatiles is only possible at the poles.

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Consequences of Tidal Dissipation in a Putative Venusian Ocean

The solar tide in an ancient Venusian ocean is simulated using a dedicated numerical tidal model. Simulations with varying ocean depth and rotational periods ranging from -243 to 64 sidereal Earth days are used to calculate the tidal dissipation rates and associated tidal torque. The results show that the tidal dissipation could have varied by more than 5 orders of magnitude, from 0.001--780 Gigawatts, depending on rotational period and ocean depth. The associated tidal torque is about 2 orders of magnitude below the present day Venusian atmospheric torque, and could change the Venusian day length by up to 72 days per million years depending on rotation rate. Consequently, an ocean tide on ancient Venus could have had significant effects on the rotational history of the planet. These calculations have implications for the rotational periods of similarly close-in exoplanetary worlds and the location of the inner edge of the liquid water habitable zone.

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Reconstructing Extreme Space Weather from Planet Hosting Stars

The field of exoplanetary science is making rapid progress both in statistical studies of exoplanet properties as well as in individual characterization. As space missions provide an emerging picture of formation and evolution of exoplanetary systems, the search for habitable worlds becomes one of the fundamental issues to address. To tackle such a complex challenge, we need to specify the conditions favorable for the origin, development and sustainment of life as we know it. This requires the understanding of global (astrospheric) and local (atmospheric, surface and internal) environments of exoplanets in the framework of the physical processes of the interaction between evolving planet-hosting stars along with exoplanetary evolution over geological timescales, and the resulting impact on climate and habitability of exoplanets. Feedbacks between astrophysical, physico-chemical atmospheric and geological processes can only be understood through interdisciplinary studies with the incorporation of progress in heliophysics, astrophysics, planetary, Earth sciences, astrobiology, and the origin of life communities. The assessment of the impacts of host stars on the climate and habitability of terrestrial (exo)planets and potential exomoons around them may significantly modify the extent and the location of the habitable zone and provide new directions for searching for signatures of life. Thus, characterization of stellar ionizing outputs becomes an important task for further understanding the extent of habitability in the universe. The goal of this white paper is to identify and describe promising key research goals to aid the theoretical characterization and observational detection of ionizing radiation from quiescent and flaring upper atmospheres of planet hosts as well as properties of stellar coronal mass ejections and stellar energetic particle events.

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Climates of Warm Earth-like Planets I: 3-D Model Simulations

We present a large ensemble of simulations of an Earth-like world with increasing insolation and rotation rate. Unlike previous work utilizing idealized aquaplanet configurations we focus our simulations on modern Earth-like topography. The orbital period is the same as modern Earth, but with zero obliquity and eccentricity. The atmosphere is 1 bar N$_{2}$-dominated with CO$_{2}$=400 ppmv and CH$_{4}$=1 ppmv. The simulations include two types of oceans; one without ocean heat transport (OHT) between grid cells as has been commonly used in the exoplanet literature, while the other is a fully coupled dynamic bathtub type ocean. The dynamical regime transitions that occur as day length increases induce climate feedbacks producing cooler temperatures, first via the reduction of water vapor with increasing rotation period despite decreasing shortwave cooling by clouds, and then via decreasing water vapor and increasing shortwave cloud cooling, except at the highest insolations. Simulations without OHT are more sensitive to insolation changes for fast rotations while slower rotations are relatively insensitive to ocean choice. OHT runs with faster rotations tend to be similar with gyres transporting heat poleward making them warmer than those without OHT. For slower rotations OHT is directed equator-ward and no high latitude gyres are apparent. Uncertainties in cloud parameterization preclude a precise determination of habitability but do not affect robust aspects of exoplanet climate sensitivity. This is the first paper in a series that will investigate aspects of habitability in the simulations presented herein. The datasets from this study are opensource and publicly available.

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Exploring Extreme Space Weather Factors of Exoplanetary Habitability

It is currently unknown how common life is on exoplanets, or how long planets can remain viable for life. To date, we have a superficial notion of habitability, a necessary first step, but so far lacking an understanding of the detailed interaction between stars and planets over geological timescales, dynamical evolution of planetary systems, and atmospheric evolution on planets in other systems. A planet mass, net insolation, and atmospheric composition alone are insufficient to determine the probability that life on a planet could arise or be detected. The latter set of planetary considerations, among others, underpin the concept of the habitable zone (HZ), defined as the circumstellar region where standing bodies of liquid water could be supported on the surface of a rocky planet. However, stars within the same spectral class are often treated in the same way in HZ studies, without any regard for variations in activity among individual stars. Such formulations ignore differences in how nonthermal emission and magnetic energy of transient events in different stars affect the ability of an exoplanet to retain its atmosphere.In the last few years there has been a growing appreciation that the atmospheric chemistry, and even retention of an atmosphere in many cases, depends critically on the high-energy radiation and particle environments around these stars. Indeed, recent studies have shown stellar activity and the extreme space weather, such as that created by the frequent flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the active stars and young Sun, may have profoundly affected the chemistry and climate and thus habitability of the early Earth and terrestrial type exoplanets. The goal of this white paper is to identify and describe promising key research goals to aid the field of the exoplanetary habitability for the next 20 years.

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Modeling Venus-Like Worlds Through Time

We explore the atmospheric and surface history of a hypothetical paleo-Venus climate using a 3-D General Circulation Model. We constrain our model with the in-situ and remote sensing Venus data available today. Given that Venus and Earth are believed to be similar geochemically some aspects of Earth's history are also utilized. We demonstrate that it is possible for ancient Venus and Venus-like exoplanetary worlds to exist within the liquid water habitable zone with insolations up to nearly 2 times that of modern Earth.

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