arXiv subjects

M. Leila Mays

Publications and source records attributed to M. Leila Mays.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Simulated Operational Testing of the Prototype Implementation of the SOFIE Model: The 2025 Space Weather Prediction Testbed Exercise

The CLEAR Space Weather Center of Excellence's solar energetic particle (SEP) model, SOlar wind with FIeld lines and Energetic particles (SOFIE), was run and evaluated on-site during the Space Weather Prediction Testbed (SWPT) exercise at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA/SWPC) in May 2025. As a physics-based SEP model, SOFIE simulates the acceleration and transport of energetic particles by the coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shock in the solar corona and inner heliosphere, and has been validated against historical events. However, questions remain regarding whether a physics-based model, traditionally considered computationally expensive, could meet operational needs. The SWPT exercise offered a valuable opportunity to evaluate SOFIE under simulated operational conditions. On-site interactive feedback from SWPC forecasters, Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) console operators, Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) personnel, and Moon-to-Mars Space Weather Analysis Office (M2M SWAO) analysts led to significant strategic improvements in the model configuration. The simulation grid was optimized by combining a coarser background grid with higher-resolution regions along the CME path and toward Earth, reducing computational cost without compromising accuracy. In this work, we present the simulated operational performance of SOFIE and its capability to predict SEP fluxes significantly faster than real time. During the SWPT exercise, SOFIE completed a 4-day SEP simulation within 5 hours using 1,000 central processing unit cores, although the earliest SEP forecast was obtained a few hours after CME onset. This marks a milestone in demonstrating SOFIE's operational usefulness and robustness to support future human space exploration.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

Physics-Based Simulation of the 2013 April 11 Solar Energetic Particle Event

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) can pose hazardous radiation risks to both humans and spacecraft electronics in space. Numerical modeling based on first principles offers valuable insights into the underlying physics of SEPs and provides synthetic observables for SEPs at any time and location in the inner heliosphere. In this work, we present a numerical scheme, which conserves the number of particles based on integral relations for Poisson brackets \citep{sokolov2023high}, to solve the kinetic equation for particle acceleration and transport processes. We implement this scheme within the Space Weather Modeling Framework, developed at the University of Michigan. In addition, we develop a new shock-capturing tool to study the coronal mass ejection-driven shock originating from the low solar corona. These methodological advancements are applied to conduct a comprehensive study of a historical SEP event on April 11, 2013. Multi-spacecraft observations, including SOHO, SDO, GOES and ACE near Earth, and STEREO-A/B, are used for model--data comparison and validation. We show synthetic observables, including extreme ultraviolet and white-light images, proton time--intensity profiles, and energy spectra, and discuss their differences and probable explanations compared to observations. Our simulation results demonstrate the application of the Poisson bracket scheme with a particle solver to simulating a historical SEP event. We also show the capability of extracting the complex shock surface using our shock-capturing tool and understand how the complex shock surface affects the particle acceleration process.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Improved modelling of SEP event onset within the WSA-Enlil-SEPMOD framework

Multi-spacecraft observations of solar energetic particle (SEP) events not only enable a deeper understanding and development of particle acceleration and transport theories, but also provide important constraints for model validation efforts. However, because of computational limitations, a given physics-based SEP model is usually best-suited to capture a particular phase of an SEP event, rather than its whole development from onset through decay. For example, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the heliosphere often incorporate solar transients only at the outer boundary of their so-called coronal domain -- usually set at a heliocentric distance of 20-30 $R_{\odot}$. This means that particle acceleration at CME-driven shocks is also computed from this boundary onwards, leading to simulated SEP event onsets that can be many hours later than observed, since shock waves can form much lower in the solar corona. In this work, we aim to improve the modelled onset of SEP events by inserting a "fixed source" of particle injection at the outer boundary of the coronal domain of the coupled WSA-Enlil 3D MHD model of the heliosphere. The SEP model that we employ for this effort is SEPMOD, a physics-based test-particle code based on a field line tracer and adiabatic invariant conservation. We apply our initial tests and results of SEPMOD's fixed-source option to the 2021 October 9 SEP event, which was detected at five well-separated locations in the inner heliosphere -- Parker Solar Probe, STEREO-A, Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo, and near-Earth spacecraft.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Particle Radiation Environment in the Heliosphere: Status, limitations and recommendations

Space weather is a multidisciplinary research area connecting scientists from across heliophysics domains seeking a coherent understanding of our space environment that can also serve modern life and society's needs. COSPAR's ISWAT (International Space Weather Action Teams) 'clusters' focus attention on different areas of space weather study while ensuring the coupled system is broadly addressed via regular communications and interactions. The ISWAT cluster "H3: Radiation Environment in the Heliosphere" (https://www.iswat-cospar.org/h3) has been working to provide a scientific platform to understand, characterize and predict the energetic particle radiation in the heliosphere with the practical goal of mitigating radiation risks associated with areospace activities, satellite industry and human space explorations. In particular, present approaches help us understand the physical phenomena at large, optimizing the output of multi-viewpoint observations and pushing current models to their limits. In this paper, we review the scientific aspects of the radiation environment in the heliosphere covering four different radiation types: Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs), Ground Level Enhancement (GLE, a type of SEP events with energies high enough to trigger the enhancement of ground-level detectors), Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and Anomalous Cosmic Rays (ACRs). We focus on related advances in the research community in the past 10-20 years and what we still lack in terms of understanding and predictive capabilities. Finally we also consider some recommendations related to the improvement of both observational and modeling capabilities in the field of space radiation environment.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2023

Quantifying errors in 3D CME parameters derived from synthetic data using white-light reconstruction techniques

(Shortened version) Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size and position, among others. Difficulties in determining input parameters for CME forecasting arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques. We explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the GCS reconstruction technique. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the ``true'' geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this as follows: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software, and 2) Using 3D MHD simulation data from the MAS code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. Increasing the number of viewpoints to two, the errors decreased by about 4$^\circ$ in latitude, 22$^\circ$ in longitude, 14$^\circ$ in tilt, and 10$^\circ$ in half-angle, pointing towards a need for at least two viewpoints. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: $Δθ$ (latitude)=${6^\circ}$, $Δϕ$ (longitude)=${11^\circ}$, $Δγ$ (tilt)=${25^\circ}$, $Δα$ (half-angle)=${10^\circ}$, $Δh$ (height)=$0.6 R_{\odot}$, and $Δκ$ (ratio)=$0.1$.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

CME Evolution in the Structured Heliosphere and Effects at Earth and Mars During Solar Minimum

The activity of the Sun alternates between a solar minimum and a solar maximum, the former corresponding to a period of "quieter" status of the heliosphere. During solar minimum, it is in principle more straightforward to follow eruptive events and solar wind structures from their birth at the Sun throughout their interplanetary journey. In this paper, we report analysis of the origin, evolution, and heliospheric impact of a series of solar transient events that took place during the second half of August 2018, i.e. in the midst of the late declining phase of Solar Cycle 24. In particular, we focus on two successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and a following high-speed stream (HSS) on their way towards Earth and Mars. We find that the first CME impacted both planets, whilst the second caused a strong magnetic storm at Earth and went on to miss Mars, which nevertheless experienced space weather effects from the stream interacting region (SIR) preceding the HSS. Analysis of remote-sensing and in-situ data supported by heliospheric modelling suggests that CME--HSS interaction resulted in the second CME rotating and deflecting in interplanetary space, highlighting that accurately reproducing the ambient solar wind is crucial even during "simpler" solar minimum periods. Lastly, we discuss the upstream solar wind conditions and transient structures responsible for driving space weather effects at Earth and Mars.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

CMEs and SEPs During November-December 2020: A Challenge for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting

Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multi-point measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyse the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, i.e. the M4.4 flare of November 29 and the C7.4 flare of December 7. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO-A spacecraft was located ~60° east of the Sun-Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of "predictions at 360°" using remote-sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA-Enlil-SEPMOD modelling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a "mini-ensemble". We validate our results using in-situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shock-accelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Effect of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection on Saturn's radio emission

The Saturn Kilometric Radiation (SKR) was observed for the first time during the flyby of Saturn by the Voyager spacecraft in 1980. These radio emissions, in the range of a few kHz to 1 MHz, are emitted by electrons travelling around auroral magnetic field lines. Their study is useful to understand the variability of a magnetosphere and its coupling with the solar wind. Previous studies have shown a strong correlation between the solar wind dynamic pressure and the SKR intensity. However, up to now, the effect of an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) has never been examined in detail, due to the lack of SKR observations at the time when an ICME can be tracked and its different parts be clearly identified. In this study, we take advantage of a large ICME that reached Saturn mid-November 2014 (Witasse et al., 2017). At that time, the Cassini spacecraft was fortunately travelling within the solar wind for a few days, and provided a very accurate timing of the ICME structure. A survey of the Cassini data for the same period indicated a significant increase in the SKR emissions, showing a good correlation after the passage of the ICME shock with a delay of ~13 hours and after the magnetic cloud passage with a delay of 25-42 hours.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

Direct First PSP Observation of the Interaction of Two Successive Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections in November 2020

We investigate the effects of the evolutionary processes in the internal magnetic structure of two interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) detected in situ between 2020 November 29 and December 1 by Parker Solar Probe (PSP). The sources of the ICMEs were observed remotely at the Sun in EUV and subsequently tracked to their coronal counterparts in white light. This period is of particular interest to the community since it has been identified as the first widespread solar energetic particle event of Solar Cycle 25. The distribution of various solar and heliospheric-dedicated spacecraft throughout the inner heliosphere during PSP observations of these large-scale magnetic structures enables a comprehensive analysis of the internal evolution and topology of such structures. By assembling different models and techniques, we identify the signatures of interaction between the two consecutive ICMEs and the implications for their internal structure. We use multispacecraft observations in combination with a remote-sensing forward modeling technique, numerical propagation models, and in-situ reconstruction techniques. The outcome, from the full reconciliations, demonstrates that the two CMEs are interacting in the vicinity of PSP. Thus, we identify the in-situ observations based on the physical processes that are associated with the interaction and collision of both CMEs. We also expand the flux rope modeling and in-situ reconstruction technique to incorporate the aging and expansion effects in a distorted internal magnetic structure and explore the implications of both effects in the magnetic configuration of the ICMEs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Magnetic Structure and Propagation of Two Interacting CMEs from the Sun to Saturn

One of the grand challenges in heliophysics is the characterisation of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic structure and evolution from eruption at the Sun through heliospheric propagation. At present, the main difficulties are related to the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and the lack of 3D in-situ measurements of the CME body in interplanetary space. Nevertheless, the evolution of a CME magnetic structure can be followed using a combination of multi-point remote-sensing observations and multi-spacecraft in-situ measurements as well as modelling. Accordingly, we present in this work the analysis of two CMEs that erupted from the Sun on 28 April 2012. We follow their eruption and early evolution using remote-sensing data, finding indications of CME--CME interaction, and then analyse their interplanetary counterpart(s) using in-situ measurements at Venus, Earth, and Saturn. We observe a seemingly single flux rope at all locations, but find possible signatures of interaction at Earth, where high-cadence plasma data are available. Reconstructions of the in-situ flux ropes provide almost identical results at Venus and Earth but show greater discrepancies at Saturn, suggesting that the CME was highly distorted and/or that further interaction with nearby solar wind structures took place before 10 AU. This work highlights the difficulties in connecting structures from the Sun to the outer heliosphere and demonstrates the importance of multi-spacecraft studies to achieve a deeper understanding of the magnetic configuration of CMEs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Propagating Conditions and the Time of ICMEs Arrival: A Comparison of the Effective Acceleration Model with ENLIL and DBEM Models

The Effective Acceleration Model (EAM) predicts the Time-of-Arrival (ToA) of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) driven shock and the average speed within the sheath at 1 AU. The model is based on the assumption that the ambient solar wind interacts with the interplanetary CME (ICME) resulting in constant acceleration or deceleration. The upgraded version of the model (EAMv3), presented here, incorporates two basic improvements: (a) a new technique for the calculation of the acceleration (or deceleration) of the ICME from the Sun to 1 AU and (b) a correction for the CME plane-of-sky speed. A validation of the upgraded EAM model is performed via comparisons to predictions from the ensemble version of the Drag-Based model (DBEM) and the WSA-ENLIL+Cone ensemble model. A common sample of 16 CMEs/ICMEs, in 2013-2014, is used for the comparison. Basic performance metrics such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean error (ME) and root mean squared error (RMSE) between observed and predicted values of ToA are presented. MAE for EAM model was 8.7$\pm$1.6 hours while for DBEM and ENLIL was 14.3$\pm$2.2 and 12.8$\pm$1.7 hours, respectively. ME for EAM was -1.4$\pm$2.7 hours in contrast with -9.7$\pm$3.4 and -6.1$\pm$3.3 hours from DBEM and ENLIL. We also study the hypothesis of stronger deceleration in the interplanetary (IP) space utilizing the EAMv3 and DBEM models. In particularly, the DBEM model perform better when a greater value of drag parameter, of order of a factor of 3, is used in contrast to previous studies. EAMv3 model shows a deceleration of ICMEs at greater distances, with a mean value of 0.72 AU.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

Unusual plasma and particle signatures at Mars and STEREO-A related to CME-CME interaction

On July 25 2017 a multi-step Forbush decrease (FD) with the remarkable total amplitude of more than 15\% was observed by MSL/RAD at Mars. We find that these particle signatures are related to very pronounced plasma and magnetic field signatures detected in situ by STEREO-A on July 24 2017, with a higher than average total magnetic field strength reaching more than 60 nT. In the observed time period STEREO-A was at a relatively small longitudinal separation (46 degrees) to Mars and both were located at the back side of the Sun as viewed from Earth. We analyse a number of multi-spacecraft and multi-instrument (both in situ and remote-sensing) observations, and employ modelling to understand these signatures. We find that the solar sources are two CMEs which erupted on July 23 2017 from the same source region on the back side of the Sun as viewed from Earth. Moreover, we find that the two CMEs interact non-uniformly, inhibiting the expansion of one of the CMEs in STEREO-A direction, whereas allowing it to expand more freely in the Mars direction. The interaction of the two CMEs with the ambient solar wind adds up to the complexity of the event, resulting in a long, sub-structured interplanetary disturbance at Mars, where different sub-structures correspond to different steps of the FD, adding-up to a globally large-amplitude FD.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) for Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation

The drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a widely used analytical model which can predict CME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric location. It is based on the assumption that the propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space is solely under the influence of magnetohydrodynamical drag, where CME propagation is determined based on CME initial properties as well as the properties of the ambient solar wind. We present an upgraded version, covering ensemble modelling to produce a distribution of possible ICME arrival times and speeds, the drag-based ensemble model (DBEM). Multiple runs using uncertainty ranges for the input values can be performed in almost real-time, within a few minutes. This allows us to define the most likely ICME arrival times and speeds, quantify prediction uncertainties and determine forecast confidence. The performance of the DBEM is evaluated and compared to that of ensemble WSA-ENLIL+Cone model (ENLIL) using the same sample of events. It is found that the mean error is $ME=-9.7$ hours, mean absolute error $MAE=14.3$ hours and root mean square error $RMSE=16.7$ hours, which is somewhat higher than, but comparable to ENLIL errors ($ME=-6.1$ hours, $MAE=12.8$ hours and $RMSE=14.4$ hours). Overall, DBEM and ENLIL show a similar performance. Furthermore, we find that in both models fast CMEs are predicted to arrive earlier than observed, most probably owing to the physical limitations of models, but possibly also related to an overestimation of the CME initial speed for fast CMEs.

astro-ph.SR↗