arXiv subjects

M. M. Kuznetsova

Publications and source records attributed to M. M. Kuznetsova.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Advancing Heliophysics and Space Weather Modeling through Open Science

We present a community-wide effort to develop a strategy and action plan to advance heliophysics and space weather modeling through open science. While open science has the potential to enhance the quality and pace of scientific discovery, its application to scientific modeling requires more careful consideration regarding open data and open software guidelines, as scientific models differ significantly from data analysis software. We gathered feedback from modeling teams worldwide through a living survey and discussion sessions at the 2024 Open Science Workshop in College Park, USA, and at the 2025 COSPAR ISWAT Working Meeting in Cape Canaveral, USA. We complement these findings with lessons learned from almost 25 years of experience at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center in enabling open use of models. We identify key roadblocks in current open science practices and guidelines and offer recommendations for future progress across four overlapping themes: open use of models and simulation results, open validation, open development, and open collaboration. An essential outcome of the discussion is the need for model developers and model users to speak with a united voice and promote the role of models in future open science efforts. We introduce a new cross-domain community initiative called the Heliophysics Open Modeling Environment (HOME), which will be integrated as an overarching activity within COSPAR ISWAT. HOME will serve as a platform for modelers and model users to work together, facilitate community modeling, improve the scientific return on modeling investment, and advance understanding, modeling, and forecasting in heliophysics and space weather.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2015

Ensemble modeling of CMEs using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model

Ensemble modeling of CMEs provides a probabilistic forecast of CME arrival time which includes an estimation of arrival time uncertainty from the spread and distribution of predictions and forecast confidence in the likelihood of CME arrival. The real-time ensemble modeling of CME propagation uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the CCMC and executed in real-time. The current implementation evaluates the sensitivity of WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations of CME propagation to initial CME parameters. We discuss the results of real-time ensemble simulations for a total of 35 CME events between January 2013 - July 2014. For the 17 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, the mean absolute arrival time prediction error was 12.3 hours, which is comparable to the errors reported in other studies. For predictions of CME arrival at Earth the correct rejection rate is 62% and the false-alarm rate is 38%. The arrival time was within the range of the ensemble arrival predictions for 8 out of 17 events. The Brier Score for CME arrival predictions is 0.15 (where 1 is a perfect forecast), indicating that on average, the predicted likelihood of CME arrival is fairly accurate. The reliability of ensemble CME arrival predictions is heavily dependent on the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the median and spread. Preliminary analysis of the probabilistic forecasts suggests undervariability, indicating that these ensembles do not sample a wide enough spread in CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters, the accuracy of the solar wind background derived from coronal maps, or other model limitations. Finally, predictions of the Kp geomagnetic index differ from observed values by less than one for 11 out of 17 of the ensembles and Kp prediction errors computed from the mean predicted Kp show a mean absolute error of 1.3.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2013

Tracing magnetic separators and their dependence on IMF clock angle in global magnetospheric simulations

A new, efficient, and highly accurate method for tracing magnetic separators in global magnetospheric simulations with arbitrary clock angle is presented. The technique is to begin at a magnetic null and iteratively march along the separator by finding where four magnetic topologies meet on a spherical surface. The technique is verified using exact solutions for separators resulting from an analytic magnetic field model that superposes dipolar and uniform magnetic fields. Global resistive magnetohydrodynamic simulations are performed using the three-dimensional BATS-R-US code with a uniform resistivity, in eight distinct simulations with interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) clock angles ranging from 0 (parallel) to 180 degrees (anti-parallel). Magnetic nulls and separators are found in the simulations, and it is shown that separators traced here are accurate for any clock angle, unlike the last closed field line on the Sun-Earth line that fails for southward IMF. Trends in magnetic null locations and the structure of magnetic separators as a function of clock angle are presented and compared with those from the analytic field model. There are many qualitative similarities between the two models, but quantitative differences are also noted. Dependence on solar wind density is briefly investigated.

physics.plasm-ph↗