arXiv subjects

M. Núñez

Publications and source records attributed to M. Núñez.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2021

Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach

In a world being hit by waves of COVID-19, vaccination is a light on the horizon. However, the roll-out of vaccination strategies and their influence on the pandemic are still open problems. In order to compare the effect of various strategies proposed by the World Health Organization and other authorities, a previously developed SEIRS stochastic model of geographical spreading of the virus is extended by adding a compartment for vaccinated people. The parameters of the model were fitted to describe the pandemic evolution in Argentina, Mexico and Spain to analyze the effect of the proposed vaccination strategies. The mobility parameters allow to simulate different social behaviors (e.g. lock-down interventions). Schemes in which vaccines are applied homogeneously in all the country, or limited to the most densely-populated areas, are simulated and compared. The second strategy is found to be more effective. Moreover, under the current global shortage of vaccines, it should be remarked that immunization is enhanced when mobility is reduced. Additionally, repetition of vaccination campaigns should be timed considering the immunity lapse of the vaccinated (and recovered) people. Finally, the model is extended to include the effect of isolation of detected positive cases, shown to be important to reduce infections.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Benchmarking CME Arrival Time and Impact: Progress on Metadata, Metrics, and Events

Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and subsequent geomagnetic impacts of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) at Earth is an important objective for space weather forecasting agencies. Recently, the CME Arrival and Impact working team has made significant progress towards defining community-agreed metrics and validation methods to assess the current state of CME modeling capabilities. This will allow the community to quantify our current capabilities and track progress in models over time. Firstly, it is crucial that the community focuses on the collection of the necessary metadata for transparency and reproducibility of results. Concerning CME arrival and impact we have identified 6 different metadata types: 3D CME measurement, model description, model input, CME (non-)arrival observation, model output data and metrics and validation methods. Secondly, the working team has also identified a validation time period, where all events within the following two periods will be considered: 1 January 2011-31 December 2012 and January 2015-31 December 2015. Those two periods amount to a total of about 100 hit events at Earth and a large amount of misses. Considering a time period will remove any bias in selecting events and the event set will represent a sample set that will not be biased by user selection. Lastly, we have defined the basic metrics and skill scores that the CME Arrival and Impact working team will focus on.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Experimental consequences at high temperatures of quantum critical points

We study the Cr_(1-x) Re_x phase diagram finding that its phase transition temperature towards an antiferromagnetic order T_N follows a quantum [(x_c-x)/x_c ]^ψ law, with ψ=1/2, from the quantum critical point (QCP) at x_c=0.25 up to T_N=600K. We compare this system to others in order to understand why this elemental material is affected by the QCP up to such unusually high temperatures. We determine a general criterion for the crossover, as function of an external parameter such as concentration, from the region controlled solely by thermal fluctuations to that where quantum effects become observable. The properties of materials with low coherence lengths will thus be altered far away from the QCP.

cond-mat.str-el↗