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M. Nicholl

Publications and source records attributed to M. Nicholl.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
arXiv2023

Swift/UVOT discovery of Swift J221951-484240: a UV luminous ambiguous nuclear transient

We report the discovery of Swift J221951-484240 (hereafter: J221951), a luminous slow-evolving blue transient that was detected by the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory Ultra-violet/Optical Telescope (Swift/UVOT) during the follow-up of Gravitational Wave alert S190930t, to which it is unrelated. Swift/UVOT photometry shows the UV spectral energy distribution of the transient to be well modelled by a slowly shrinking black body with an approximately constant temperature of T~2.5x10^4 K. At a redshift z=0.5205, J221951 had a peak absolute magnitude of M_u,AB = -23 mag, peak bolometric luminosity L_max=1.1x10^45 erg s^-1 and a total radiated energy of E>2.6x10^52 erg. The archival WISE IR photometry shows a slow rise prior to a peak near the discovery date. Spectroscopic UV observations display broad absorption lines in N V and O VI, pointing toward an outflow at coronal temperatures. The lack of emission in the higher H~Lyman lines, N I and other neutral lines is consistent with a viewing angle close to the plane of the accretion or debris disc. The origin of J221951 can not be determined with certainty but has properties consistent with a tidal disruption event and the turn-on of an active galactic nucleus.

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arXiv2023

Luminous Radio Emission from the Superluminous Supernova 2017ens at 3.3 years after explosion

We present the results from a multi-year radio campaign of the superluminous supernova (SLSN) 2017ens, which yielded the earliest radio detection of a SLSN to date at the age of $\sim$3.3 years after explosion. SN2017ens was not detected at radio frequencies in the first $\sim$300\,d of evolution but reached $L_ν\approx 10^{28}\,\rm{erg\,s^{-1}\,cm^{-2}}$ at $ν\sim 6$ GHz, $\sim1250$ days post-explosion. Interpreting the radio observations in the context of synchrotron radiation from the supernova shock interaction with the circumstellar medium (CSM), we infer an effective mass-loss rate of $\approx 10^{-4}\,\rm{M_{\odot}yr^{-1}}$ at $r\sim 10^{17}$ cm from the explosion's site, for a wind speed of $v_w=50-60\,\rm{km\,s^{-1}}$ measured from optical spectra. These findings are consistent with the spectroscopic metamorphosis of SN2017ens from hydrogen-poor to hydrogen-rich $\sim190$ d after explosion reported by Chen et al., 2018. SN2017ens is thus an addition to the sample of hydrogen-poor massive progenitors that explode shortly after having lost their hydrogen envelope. The inferred circumstellar densities, implying a CSM mass up to $\sim0.5\,\rm{M_{\odot}}$, and low velocity of the ejection point at binary interactions (in the form of common envelope evolution and subsequent envelope ejection) playing a role in shaping the evolution of the stellar progenitors of SLSNe in the $\lesssim 500$ yr preceding core collapse.

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arXiv2023

Panning for gold, but finding helium: discovery of the ultra-stripped supernova SN2019wxt from gravitational-wave follow-up observations

We present the results from multi-wavelength observations of a transient discovered during the follow-up of S191213g, a gravitational wave (GW) event reported by the LIGO-Virgo Collaboration as a possible binary neutron star merger in a low latency search. This search yielded SN2019wxt, a young transient in a galaxy whose sky position (in the 80\% GW contour) and distance ($\sim$150\,Mpc) were plausibly compatible with the localisation uncertainty of the GW event. Initially, the transient's tightly constrained age, its relatively faint peak magnitude ($M_i \sim -16.7$\,mag) and the $r-$band decline rate of $\sim 1$\,mag per 5\,days appeared suggestive of a compact binary merger. However, SN2019wxt spectroscopically resembled a type Ib supernova, and analysis of the optical-near-infrared evolution rapidly led to the conclusion that while it could not be associated with S191213g, it nevertheless represented an extreme outcome of stellar evolution. By modelling the light curve, we estimated an ejecta mass of $\sim 0.1\,M_\odot$, with $^{56}$Ni comprising $\sim 20\%$ of this. We were broadly able to reproduce its spectral evolution with a composition dominated by helium and oxygen, with trace amounts of calcium. We considered various progenitors that could give rise to the observed properties of SN2019wxt, and concluded that an ultra-stripped origin in a binary system is the most likely explanation. Disentangling electromagnetic counterparts to GW events from transients such as SN2019wxt is challenging: in a bid to characterise the level of contamination, we estimated the rate of events with properties comparable to those of SN2019wxt and found that $\sim 1$ such event per week can occur within the typical GW localisation area of O4 alerts out to a luminosity distance of 500\,Mpc, beyond which it would become fainter than the typical depth of current electromagnetic follow-up campaigns.

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arXiv2023

Broad-emission-line dominated hydrogen-rich luminous supernovae

Hydrogen-rich Type II supernovae (SNe II) are the most frequently observed class of core-collapse SNe (CCSNe). However, most studies that analyse large samples of SNe II lack events with absolute peak magnitudes brighter than -18.5 mag at rest-frame optical wavelengths. Thanks to modern surveys, the detected number of such luminous SNe II (LSNe II) is growing. There exist several mechanisms that could produce luminous SNe II. The most popular propose either the presence of a central engine (a magnetar gradually spinning down or a black hole accreting fallback material) or the interaction of supernova ejecta with circumstellar material (CSM) that turns kinetic energy into radiation energy. In this work, we study the light curves and spectral series of a small sample of six LSNe II that show peculiarities in their H$α$ profile, to attempt to understand the underlying powering mechanism. We favour an interaction scenario with CSM that is not dense enough to be optically thick to electron scattering on large scales -- thus, no narrow emission lines are observed. This conclusion is based on the observed light curve (higher luminosity, fast decline, blue colours) and spectral features (lack of persistent narrow lines, broad H$α$ emission, lack of H$α$ absorption, weak or nonexistent metal lines) together with comparison to other luminous events available in the literature. We add to the growing evidence that transients powered by ejecta-CSM interaction do not necessarily display persistent narrow emission lines.

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arXiv2023

GRB 201015A and the nature of low-luminosity soft gamma-ray bursts

GRB 201015A is a peculiarly low luminosity, spectrally soft gamma-ray burst (GRB), with $T_{\rm 90} = 9.8 \pm 3.5$ s (time interval of detection of 90\% of photons from the GRB), and an associated supernova (likely to be type Ic or Ic-BL). GRB 201015A has an isotropic energy $E_{γ,\rm iso} = 1.75 ^{+0.60} _{-0.53} \times 10^{50}$ erg, and photon index $Γ= 3.00 ^{+0.50} _{-0.42}$ (15-150 keV). It follows the Amati relation, a correlation between $E_{γ,\rm iso}$ and spectral peak energy $E_{\rm p}$ followed by long GRBs. It appears exceptionally soft based on $Γ$, the hardness ratio of HR = $0.47 \pm 0.24$, and low-$E_{\rm p}$, so we have compared it to other GRBs sharing these properties. These events can be explained by shock breakout, poorly collimated jets, and off-axis viewing. Follow-up observations of the afterglow taken in the X-ray, optical, and radio, reveal a surprisingly late flattening in the X-ray from $t = (2.61 \pm 1.27)\times 10^4$ s to $t = 1.67 ^{+1.14} _{-0.65} \times 10^6$ s. We fit the data to closure relations describing the synchrotron emission, finding the electron spectral index to be $p = 2.42 ^{+0.44} _{-0.30}$, and evidence of late-time energy injection with coefficient $q = 0.24 ^{+0.24} _{-0.18}$. The jet half opening angle lower limit ($θ_{j} \ge 16^{\circ}$) is inferred from the non-detection of a jet break. The launch of SVOM and Einstein Probe in 2023, should enable detection of more low luminosity events like this, providing a fuller picture of the variety of GRBs.

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arXiv2023

Multiwavelength observations of the extraordinary accretion event AT2021lwx

We present observations from X-ray to mid-infrared wavelengths of the most energetic non-quasar transient ever observed, AT2021lwx. Our data show a single optical brightening by a factor $>100$ to a luminosity of $7\times10^{45}$ erg s$^{-1}$, and a total radiated energy of $1.5\times10^{53}$ erg, both greater than any known optical transient. The decline is smooth and exponential and the ultra-violet - optical spectral energy distribution resembles a black body with temperature $1.2\times10^4$ K. Tentative X-ray detections indicate a secondary mode of emission, while a delayed mid-infrared flare points to the presence of dust surrounding the transient. The spectra are similar to recently discovered optical flares in known active galactic nuclei but lack some characteristic features. The lack of emission for the previous seven years is inconsistent with the short-term, stochastic variability observed in quasars, while the extreme luminosity and long timescale of the transient disfavour the disruption of a single solar-mass star. The luminosity could be generated by the disruption of a much more massive star, but the likelihood of such an event occurring is small. A plausible scenario is the accretion of a giant molecular cloud by a dormant black hole of $10^8 - 10^9$ solar masses. AT2021lwx thus represents an extreme extension of the known scenarios of black hole accretion.

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arXiv2023

The optical light curve of GRB 221009A: the afterglow and the emerging supernova

We present extensive optical photometry of the afterglow of GRB~221009A. Our data cover $0.9 - 59.9$\,days from the time of \textit{Swift} and \textit{Fermi} GRB detections. Photometry in $rizy$-band filters was collected primarily with Pan-STARRS and supplemented by multiple 1- to 4-meter imaging facilities. We analyzed the Swift X-ray data of the afterglow and found a single decline rate power-law $f(t) \propto t^{-1.556\pm0.002}$ best describes the light curve. In addition to the high foreground Milky Way dust extinction along this line of sight, the data favour additional extinction to consistently model the optical to X-ray flux with optically thin synchrotron emission. We fit the X-ray-derived power-law to the optical light curve and find good agreement with the measured data up to $5-6$\,days. Thereafter we find a flux excess in the $riy$ bands which peaks in the observer frame at $\sim20$\,days. This excess shares similar light curve profiles to the type Ic broad-lined supernovae SN~2016jca and SN~2017iuk once corrected for the GRB redshift of $z=0.151$ and arbitrarily scaled. This may be representative of a supernova emerging from the declining afterglow. We measure rest-frame absolute peak AB magnitudes of $M_g=-19.8\pm0.6$ and $M_r=-19.4\pm0.3$ and $M_z=-20.1\pm0.3$. If this is an SN component, then Bayesian modelling of the excess flux would imply explosion parameters of $M_{\rm ej}=7.1^{+2.4}_{-1.7}$ M$_{\odot}$, $M_{\rm Ni}=1.0^{+0.6}_{-0.4}$ M$_{\odot}$, and $v_{\rm ej}=33,900^{+5,900}_{-5,700} kms^{-1}$, for the ejecta mass, nickel mass and ejecta velocity respectively, inferring an explosion energy of $E_{\rm kin}\simeq 2.6-9.0\times10^{52}$ ergs.

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arXiv2023

Polarimetry of Hydrogen-Poor Superluminous Supernovae

We present linear polarimetry for seven hydrogen-poor superluminous supernovae (SLSNe-I). For SN 2017gci, for which we present two epochs of spectropolarimetry at +3 d and +29 d post-peak in rest frame, accompanied by four epochs of imaging polarimetry up to +108 d. The spectropolarimetry at +3 d shows increasing polarisation degree P towards the redder wavelengths and exhibits signs of axial symmetry, but at +29 d P=0 throughout the spectrum implying that the photosphere of SN 2017gci evolved from a slightly aspherical configuration to a more spherical one in the first month post-peak. However, an increase of P to 0.5% at +55 d accompanied by a different orientation of the axial symmetry compared to +3 d implies the presence of additional sources of polarisation at this phase. The increase in polarisation is possibly caused by interaction with circumstellar matter as already suggested by a knee in the light curve and a possible detection of broad Ha emission. We also analysed the sample of all 16 SLSNe-I with polarimetry to date. The data taken during the early spectroscopic phase show consistently low P indicating spherical photospheres. No clear relation between the polarimetry and spectral phase was seen when the spectra resemble Type Ic SNe during the photospheric and nebular phases. The light curve decline rate also shows no clear relation with the polarisation properties. While only slow-evolving SLSNe-I have shown non-zero P, the fast-evolving ones have not been observed at sufficiently late times to conclude that none of them exhibit changing P. However, the four SLSNe-I with increasing polarisation degree also have irregular light curve declines. For up to half of them, the photometric, spectroscopic and polarimetric properties are affected by CSM interaction. As such CSM interaction clearly plays an important role in understanding the polarimetric evolution of SLSNe-I.

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arXiv2023

Photometric study of the late-time near-infrared plateau in Type Ia supernovae

We present an in-depth study of the late-time near-infrared plateau in Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), which occurs between 70-500 d. We double the existing sample of SNe Ia observed during the late-time near-infrared plateau with new observations taken with the Hubble Space Telescope, Gemini, New Technology Telescope, the 3.5m Calar Alto Telescope, and the Nordic Optical Telescope. Our sample consists of 24 nearby SNe Ia at redshift < 0.025. We are able to confirm that no plateau exists in the Ks band for most normal SNe Ia. SNe Ia with broader optical light curves at peak tend to have a higher average brightness on the plateau in J and H, most likely due to a shallower decline in the preceding 100 d. SNe Ia that are more luminous at peak also show a steeper decline during the plateau phase in H. We compare our data to state-of-the-art radiative transfer models of nebular SNe Ia in the near-infrared. We find good agreement with the sub-Mch model that has reduced non-thermal ionisation rates, but no physical justification for reducing these rates has yet been proposed. An analysis of the spectral evolution during the plateau demonstrates that the ratio of [Fe II] to [Fe III] contribution in a near-infrared filter determines the light curve evolution in said filter. We find that overluminous SNe decline slower during the plateau than expected from the trend seen for normal SNe Ia

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arXiv2023

VERITAS and Fermi-LAT constraints on the Gamma-ray Emission from Superluminous Supernovae SN2015bn and SN2017egm

Superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) are a rare class of stellar explosions with luminosities ~10-100 times greater than ordinary core-collapse supernovae. One popular model to explain the enhanced optical output of hydrogen-poor (Type I) SLSNe invokes energy injection from a rapidly spinning magnetar. A prediction in this case is that high-energy gamma rays, generated in the wind nebula of the magnetar, could escape through the expanding supernova ejecta at late times (months or more after optical peak). This paper presents a search for gamma-ray emission in the broad energy band from 100 MeV to 30 TeV from two Type I SLSNe, SN2015bn, and SN2017egm, using observations from Fermi-LAT and VERITAS. Although no gamma-ray emission was detected from either source, the derived upper limits approach the putative magnetar's spin-down luminosity. Prospects are explored for detecting very-high-energy (VHE; 100 GeV - 100 TeV) emission from SLSNe-I with existing and planned facilities such as VERITAS and CTA.

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arXiv2023

The luminous type Ia supernova 2022ilv and its early excess emission

We present observations and analysis of the host-less and luminous type Ia supernova 2022ilv, illustrating it is part of the 2003fg-like family, often referred to as super-Chandrasekhar (Ia-SC) explosions. The ATLAS light curve shows evidence of a short-lived, pulse-like early excess, similar to that detected in another luminous type Ia supernova (SN 2020hvf). The light curve is broad and the early spectra are remarkably similar to SN 2009dc. Adopting a redshift of $z=0.026 \pm 0.005$ for SN 2022ilv based on spectral matching, our model light curve requires a large $^{56}$Ni mass in the range $0.7-1.5$ M$_{\odot}$, and a large ejecta mass in the range $1.6-2.3$ M$_{\odot}$. The early excess can be explained by fast-moving SN ejecta interacting with a thin, dense shell of circumstellar material close to the progenitor ($\sim 10^{13}$ cm), a few hours after the explosion. This may be realised in a double-degenerate scenario, wherein a white dwarf merger is preceded by ejection of a small amount ($\sim 10^{-3}-10^{-2}$ M$_{\odot}$) of hydrogen and helium-poor tidally stripped material. A deep pre-explosion Pan-STARRS1 stack indicates no host galaxy to a limiting magnitude of $r \sim 24.5$. This implies a surprisingly faint limit for any host of $M_r \gtrsim -11$, providing further evidence that these types of explosion occur predominantly in low-metallicity environments.

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arXiv2022

The case for a minute-long merger-driven gamma-ray burst from fast-cooling synchrotron emission

For decades, gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) have been broadly divided into `long'- and `short'-duration bursts, lasting more or less than 2s, respectively. However, this dichotomy does not map perfectly to the two progenitor channels that are known to produce GRBs -- the merger of compact objects (merger-GRBs) or the collapse of massive stars (collapsar-GRBs). In particular, the merger-GRBs population may also include bursts with a short, hard $\lesssim$2s spike and subsequent longer, softer extended emission (EE). The recent discovery of a kilonova -- the radioactive glow of heavy elements made in neutron star mergers -- in the 50s-duration GRB 211211A further demonstrates that mergers can drive long, complex GRBs that mimic the collapsar population. Here we present a detailed temporal and spectral analysis of the high-energy emission of GRB 211211A. We demonstrate that the emission has a purely synchrotron origin, with both the peak and cooling frequencies moving through the $γ$-ray band down to the X-rays, and that the rapidly-evolving spectrum drives the EE signature at late times. The identification of such spectral evolution in a merger-GRB opens avenues for diagnostics of the progenitor type.

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arXiv2022

The rise and fall of the iron-strong nuclear transient PS16dtm

Thanks to the advent of large-scale optical surveys, a diverse set of flares from the nuclear regions of galaxies has recently been discovered. These include the disruption of stars by supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies - nuclear transients known as tidal disruption events (TDEs). Active galactic nuclei (AGN) can show extreme changes in the brightness and emission line intensities, often referred to as changing-look AGN (CLAGN). Given the physical and observational similarities, the interpretation and distinction of nuclear transients as CLAGN or TDEs remains difficult. One of the obstacles of making progress in the field is the lack of well-sampled data of long-lived nuclear outbursts in AGN. Here, we study PS16dtm, a nuclear transient in a Narrow Line Seyfert 1 (NLSy1) galaxy, which has been proposed to be a TDE candidate. Our aim is to study the spectroscopic and photometric properties of PS16dtm, in order to better understand the outbursts originating in NLSy1 galaxies. Our extensive multiwavelength follow-up that spans around 2000 days includes photometry and spectroscopy in the UV/optical, as well as mid-infrared (MIR) and X-ray observations. Furthermore, we improved an existing semiempirical model in order to reproduce the spectra and study the evolution of the spectral lines. The UV/optical light curve shows a double peak at $\sim50$ and $\sim100$ days after the first detection, and it declines and flattens afterward, reaching preoutburst levels after 2000 days of monitoring. The MIR light curve rises almost simultaneously with the optical, but unlike the UV/optical which is approaching the preoutburst levels in the last epochs of our observations, the MIR emission is still rising at the time of writing. The optical spectra show broad Balmer features and the strongest broad Fe II emission ever detected in a nuclear transient. [abridged]

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arXiv2022

A long life of excess: The interacting transient SN 2017hcc

In this study we present the results of a five-year follow-up campaign of the long-lived type IIn supernova SN 2017hcc, found in a spiral dwarf host of near-solar metallicity. The long rise time (57 $\pm$ 2 days, ATLAS $o$ band) and high luminosity (peaking at $-$20.78 $\pm$ 0.01 mag in the ATLAS $o$ band) point towards an interaction of massive ejecta with massive and dense circumstellar material (CSM). The evolution of SN 2017hcc is slow, both spectroscopically and photometrically, reminiscent of the long-lived type IIn, SN 2010jl. An infrared (IR) excess was apparent soon after the peak, and blueshifts were noticeable in the Balmer lines starting from a few hundred days, but appeared to be fading by around +1200 days. We posit that an IR light echo from pre-existing dust dominates at early times, with some possible condensation of new dust grains occurring at epochs >$\sim$+800 days.

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arXiv2022

The nuclear transient AT 2017gge: a tidal disruption event in a dusty and gas-rich environment and the awakening of a dormant SMBH

We present the results from a dense multi-wavelength (optical/UV, near-infrared (IR), and X-ray) follow-up campaign of the nuclear transient AT2017gge, covering a total of 1698 days from the transient's discovery. The bolometric lightcurve, the black body temperature and radius, the broad H and He I $λ$5876 emission lines and their evolution with time, are all consistent with a tidal disruption event (TDE) nature. A soft X-ray flare is detected with a delay of $\sim$200 days with respect to the optical/UV peak and it is rapidly followed by the emergence of a broad He II $λ$4686 and by a number of long-lasting high ionization coronal emission lines. This indicate a clear connection between a TDE flare and the appearance of extreme coronal line emission (ECLEs). An IR echo, resulting from dust re-radiation of the optical/UV TDE light is observed after the X-ray flare and the associated near-IR spectra show a transient broad feature in correspondence of the He I $λ$10830 and, for the first time in a TDE, a transient high-ionization coronal NIR line (the [Fe XIII] $λ$10798) is also detected. The data are well explained by a scenario in which a TDE occurs in a gas and dust rich environment and its optical/UV, soft X-ray, and IR emission have different origins and locations. The optical emission may be produced by stellar debris stream collisions prior to the accretion disk formation, which is instead responsible for the soft X-ray flare, emitted after the end of the circularization process.

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arXiv2022

A Kilonova Following a Long-Duration Gamma-Ray Burst at 350 Mpc

Here, we report the discovery of a kilonova associated with the nearby (350 Mpc) minute-duration GRB 211211A. In tandem with deep optical limits that rule out the presence of an accompanying supernova to $M_I > -13$ mag at 17.7 days post-burst, the identification of a kilonova confirms that this burst's progenitor was a compact object merger. While the spectrally softer tail in GRB 211211A's gamma-ray light curve is reminiscent of previous extended emission short GRBs (EE-SGRBs), its prompt, bright spikes last $\gtrsim 12$ s, separating it from past EE-SGRBs. GRB 211211A's kilonova has a similar luminosity, duration and color to AT2017gfo, the kilonova found in association with the gravitational wave (GW)-detected binary neutron star (BNS) merger GW170817. We find that the merger ejected $\approx 0.04 M_{\odot}$ of r-process-rich material, and is consistent with the merger of two neutron stars (NSs) with masses close to the canonical $1.4 M_{\odot}$. This discovery implies that GRBs with long, complex light curves can be spawned from compact object merger events and that a population of kilonovae following GRBs with durations $\gg 2$ s should be accounted for in calculations of the NS merger r-process contribution and rate. At 350 Mpc, the current network of GW interferometers at design sensitivity would have detected the merger precipitating GRB 211211A, had it been operating at the time of the event. Further searches for GW signals coincident with long GRBs are therefore a promising route for future multi-messenger astronomy.

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arXiv2022

SN 2018bsz: a Type I superluminous supernova with aspherical circumstellar material

We present a spectroscopic analysis of Type I superluminous supernova (SLSN-I), SN 2018bsz. While it closely resembles SLSNe-I, the multi-component H$α$ line appearing at $\sim30$ d post-maximum is the most atypical. The H$α$ is characterised by two emission components, one at $+3000$ km/s and a second at $-7500$ km/s, with a third, near-zero velocity component appearing after a delay. The blue and central components can be described by Gaussian profiles of intermediate width, but the red component is significantly broader and Lorentzian. The blue component evolves towards lower velocity before fading at $100$ d post-peak, concurrently with a light curve break. Multi-component profiles are observed in other hydrogen lines including Pa$β$, and in lines of Ca II and He I. Spectropolarimetry obtained before (10.2 d) and after (38.4 d) the appearance of the H lines show a large shift on the Stokes $Q$ -- $U$ plane consistent with SN 2018bsz undergoing radical changes in its geometry. Assuming the SN is almost unpolarised at 10.2 d, the continuum polarisation at 38.4 d reaches $P \sim1.8\%$ implying a highly asymmetric configuration. We propose that the observed evolution of SN 2018bsz can be explained by highly aspherical CSM. After the SN explosion, the CSM is quickly overtaken by the ejecta, but as the photosphere starts to recede, the different CSM regions re-emerge producing the peculiar line profiles. Based on the first appearance of H$α$, we can constrain the distance of the CSM to be less than $430$ AU, or even lower ($<87$ AU) if the pre-peak plateau is related to an eruption that created the CSM. The presence of CSM has been inferred for other SLSNe-I. However, it is not clear whether the rare properties of SN 2018bsz can be generalised for SLSNe-I or whether they are the result of an uncommon evolutionary path, possibly involving a binary companion.

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arXiv2022

Towards an understanding of long gamma-ray burst environments through circumstellar medium population synthesis predictions

The temporal and spectral evolution of gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows can be used to infer the density and density profile of the medium through which the shock is propagating. In long-duration (core-collapse) GRBs, the circumstellar medium (CSM) is expected to resemble a wind-blown bubble, with a termination shock separating the stellar wind and the interstellar medium (ISM). A long standing problem is that flat density profiles, indicative of the ISM, are often found at lower radii than expected for a massive star progenitor. Furthermore, the presence of both wind-like environments at high radii and ISM-like environments at low radii remains a mystery. In this paper, we perform a 'CSM population synthesis' with long GRB progenitor stellar evolution models. Analytic results for the evolution of wind blown bubbles are adjusted through comparison with a grid of 2D hydrodynamical simulations. Predictions for the emission radii, ratio of ISM to wind-like environments, wind and ISM densities are compared with the largest sample of afterglow-derived parameters yet compiled, which we make available for the community. We find that high ISM densities around 1000/cm3 best reproduce observations. If long GRBs instead occur in typical ISM densities of approximately 1/cm3, then the discrepancy between theory and observations is shown to persist at a population level. We discuss possible explanations for the origin of variety in long GRB afterglows, and for the overall trend of CSM modelling to over-predict the termination shock radius.

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