arXiv subjects

M. Owens

Publications and source records attributed to M. Owens.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Solar cycle evolution of ICME sheath regions at 1 AU

We investigate the evolution of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) sheath regions at 1 AU across solar cycles 23, 24, and the rising phase of 25, focusing on their variability and turbulence in relation to upstream solar wind conditions and the global heliospheric state. Using a dataset of over 900 ICME sheath events, we apply statistical metrics such as the interquartile range (IQR) and the Turbulence Index (TI) to quantify variability and turbulence. The analysis compares full and rising phases of solar cycles and examines both local ICME parameters (e.g., sheath total pressure, non-radial flows) and global interplanetary indicators such as open solar flux (OSF). From SC23 to SC24, sheath total pressure and magnetic field strength decreased by over 40% and 25%, respectively, accompanied by reduced turbulence and variability. In contrast, the rising phase of SC25 shows increased magnetic complexity, particularly in non-radial field components, despite stable bulk parameters. Non-radial flow patterns also shift from tangentially dominated in SC23-SC24 to normal-dominated in SC25, suggesting changes in ICME orientation and sheath formation mechanisms. No significant correlation is found between OSF and sheath properties, indicating that local solar wind and ICME specific factors are the primary drivers of sheath evolution. The study reinforces the importance of upstream solar wind dynamics in relation to variations in plasma and magnetic field measured components of ICME sheaths. The derived trends in turbulence, magnetic orientation, and flow geometry suggest that sheath regions are sensitive indicators of solar cycle phase and should be considered as distinct, structured components in ICME modeling.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Re-calibration of the Sunspot Number: Status Report

We report progress on the ongoing recalibration of the Wolf sunspot number (SN) and Group sunspot number (GN) following the release of version 2.0 of SN in 2015. This report constitutes both an update of the efforts reported in the 2016 Topical Issue of Solar Physics and a summary of work by the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) International Team formed in 2017 to develop optimal SN and GN re-construction methods while continuing to expand the historical sunspot number database. Significant progress has been made on the database side while more work is needed to bring the various proposed SN and (primarily) GN reconstruction methods closer to maturity, after which the new reconstructions (or combinations thereof) can be compared with (a) ``benchmark'' expectations for any normalization scheme (e.g., a general increase in observer normalization factors going back in time), and (b) independent proxy data series such as F10.7 and the daily range of variations of Earth's undisturbed magnetic field. New versions of the underlying databases for SN and GN will shortly become available for years through 2022 and we anticipate the release of next versions of these two time series in 2024.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

A New Calibrated Sunspot Group Series Since 1749: Statistics of Active Day Fractions

Although the sunspot-number series have existed since the mid-19th century, they are still the subject of intense debate, with the largest uncertainty being related to the "calibration" of the visual acuity of individual observers in the past. Daisy-chain regression methods are applied to inter-calibrate the observers which may lead to significant bias and error accumulation. Here we present a novel method to calibrate the visual acuity of the key observers to the reference data set of Royal Greenwich Observatory sunspot groups for the period 1900-1976, using the statistics of the active-day fraction. For each observer we independently evaluate their observational thresholds [S_S] defined such that the observer is assumed to miss all of the groups with an area smaller than S_S and report all the groups larger than S_S. Next, using a Monte-Carlo method we construct, from the reference data set, a correction matrix for each observer. The correction matrices are significantly non-linear and cannot be approximated by a linear regression or proportionality. We emphasize that corrections based on a linear proportionality between annually averaged data lead to serious biases and distortions of the data. The correction matrices are applied to the original sunspot group records for each day, and finally the composite corrected series is produced for the period since 1748. The corrected series displays secular minima around 1800 (Dalton minimum) and 1900 (Gleissberg minimum), as well as the Modern grand maximum of activity in the second half of the 20th century. The uniqueness of the grand maximum is confirmed for the last 250 years. It is shown that the adoption of a linear relationship between the data of Wolf and Wolfer results in grossly inflated group numbers in the 18th and 19th centuries in some reconstructions.

astro-ph.SR↗