arXiv subjects

M. P. Hobson

Publications and source records attributed to M. P. Hobson.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2008

An excess of emission in the dark cloud LDN 1111 with the Arcminute Microkelvin Imager

We present observations of the Lynds' dark nebula LDN 1111 made at microwave frequencies between 14.6 and 17.2 GHz with the Arcminute Microkelvin Imager (AMI). We find emission in this frequency band in excess of a thermal free--free spectrum extrapolated from data at 1.4 GHz with matched uv-coverage. This excess is > 15 sigma above the predicted emission. We fit the measured spectrum using the spinning dust model of Drain & Lazarian (1998a) and find the best fitting model parameters agree well with those derived from Scuba data for this object by Visser et al. (2001).

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

Classical big-bounce cosmology: dynamical analysis of a homogeneous and irrotational Weyssenhoff fluid

A dynamical analysis of an effective homogeneous and irrotational Weyssenhoff fluid in general relativity is performed using the 1+3 covariant approach that enables the dynamics of the fluid to be determined without assuming any particular form for the space-time metric. The spin contributions to the field equations produce a bounce that averts an initial singularity, provided that the spin density exceeds the rate of shear. At later times, when the spin contribution can be neglected, a Weyssenhoff fluid reduces to a standard cosmological fluid in general relativity. Numerical solutions for the time evolution of the generalised scale factor in spatially-curved models are presented, some of which exhibit eternal oscillatory behaviour without any singularities. In spatially-flat models, analytical solutions for particular values of the equation-of-state parameter are derived. Although the scale factor of a Weyssenhoff fluid generically has a positive temporal curvature near a bounce, it requires unreasonable fine tuning of the equation-of-state parameter to produce a sufficiently extended period of inflation to fit the current observational data.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2008

The impact of priors and observables on parameter inferences in the Constrained MSSM

We use a newly released version of the SuperBayeS code to analyze the impact of the choice of priors and the influence of various constraints on the statistical conclusions for the preferred values of the parameters of the Constrained MSSM. We assess the effect in a Bayesian framework and compare it with an alternative likelihood-based measure of a profile likelihood. We employ a new scanning algorithm (MultiNest) which increases the computational efficiency by a factor ~200 with respect to previously used techniques. We demonstrate that the currently available data are not yet sufficiently constraining to allow one to determine the preferred values of CMSSM parameters in a way that is completely independent of the choice of priors and statistical measures. While b->s gamma generally favors large m_0, this is in some contrast with the preference for low values of m_0 and m_1/2 that is almost entirely a consequence of a combination of prior effects and a single constraint coming from the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, which remains somewhat controversial. Using an information-theoretical measure, we find that the cosmological dark matter abundance determination provides at least 80% of the total constraining power of all available observables. Despite the remaining uncertainties, prospects for direct detection in the CMSSM remain excellent, with the spin-independent neutralino-proton cross section almost guaranteed above sigma_SI ~ 10^{-10} pb, independently of the choice of priors or statistics. Likewise, gluino and lightest Higgs discovery at the LHC remain highly encouraging. While in this work we have used the CMSSM as particle physics model, our formalism and scanning technique can be readily applied to a wider class of models with several free parameters.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2008

Bayesian modelling of clusters of galaxies from multi-frequency pointed Sunyaev--Zel'dovich observations

We present a Bayesian approach to modelling galaxy clusters using multi-frequency pointed observations from telescopes that exploit the Sunyaev--Zel'dovich effect. We use the recently developed MultiNest technique (Feroz, Hobson & Bridges, 2008) to explore the high-dimensional parameter spaces and also to calculate the Bayesian evidence. This permits robust parameter estimation as well as model comparison. Tests on simulated Arcminute Microkelvin Imager observations of a cluster, in the presence of primary CMB signal, radio point sources (detected as well as an unresolved background) and receiver noise, show that our algorithm is able to analyse jointly the data from six frequency channels, sample the posterior space of the model and calculate the Bayesian evidence very efficiently on a single processor. We also illustrate the robustness of our detection process by applying it to a field with radio sources and primordial CMB but no cluster, and show that indeed no cluster is identified. The extension of our methodology to the detection and modelling of multiple clusters in multi-frequency SZ survey data will be described in a future work.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

Bayesian Selection of sign(mu) within mSUGRA in Global Fits Including WMAP5 Results

We study the properties of the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (mSUGRA) by performing fits to updated indirect data, including the relic density of dark matter inferred from WMAP5. In order to find the extent to which mu < 0 is disfavoured compared to mu > 0, we compare the Bayesian evidence values for these models, which we obtain straightforwardly and with good precision from the recently developed multi-modal nested sampling ('MultiNest') technique. We find weak to moderate evidence for the mu > 0 branch of mSUGRA over mu < 0 and estimate the ratio of probabilities to be P(mu > 0)/P(mu < 0) = 6-61 depending on the prior measure and range used. There is thus positive (but not overwhelming) evidence that mu > 0 in mSUGRA. The MultiNest technique also delivers probability distributions of parameters and other relevant quantities such as superpartner masses. We explore the dependence of our results on the choice of the prior measure used. We also use the Bayesian evidence to quantify the consistency between the mSUGRA parameter inferences coming from the constraints that have the largest effects: (g-2)_mu, BR(b -> s gamma) and cold dark matter (DM) relic density Omega_{DM}h^2.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2008

Cluster detection in weak lensing surveys

We present an efficient and robust approach for extracting clusters of galaxies from weak lensing survey data and measuring their properties. We use simple, physically-motivated cluster models appropriate for such sparse, noisy data, and incorporate our knowledge of the cluster mass function to optimise the detection of low-mass objects. Despite the method's non-linear nature, we are able to search at a rate of approximately half a square degree per hour on a single processor, making this technique a viable candidate for future wide-field surveys. We quantify, for two simulated data-sets, the accuracy of recovered cluster parameters, and discuss the completeness and purity of our shear-selected cluster catalogues.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

MultiNest: an efficient and robust Bayesian inference tool for cosmology and particle physics

We present further development and the first public release of our multimodal nested sampling algorithm, called MultiNest. This Bayesian inference tool calculates the evidence, with an associated error estimate, and produces posterior samples from distributions that may contain multiple modes and pronounced (curving) degeneracies in high dimensions. The developments presented here lead to further substantial improvements in sampling efficiency and robustness, as compared to the original algorithm presented in Feroz & Hobson (2008), which itself significantly outperformed existing MCMC techniques in a wide range of astrophysical inference problems. The accuracy and economy of the MultiNest algorithm is demonstrated by application to two toy problems and to a cosmological inference problem focussing on the extension of the vanilla $Λ$CDM model to include spatial curvature and a varying equation of state for dark energy. The MultiNest software, which is fully parallelized using MPI and includes an interface to CosmoMC, is available at http://www.mrao.cam.ac.uk/software/multinest/. It will also be released as part of the SuperBayeS package, for the analysis of supersymmetric theories of particle physics, at http://www.superbayes.org

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

A fast Bayesian approach to discrete object detection in astronomical datasets - PowellSnakes I

A new fast Bayesian approach is introduced for the detection of discrete objects immersed in a diffuse background. This new method, called PowellSnakes, speeds up traditional Bayesian techniques by: i) replacing the standard form of the likelihood for the parameters characterizing the discrete objects by an alternative exact form that is much quicker to evaluate; ii) using a simultaneous multiple minimization code based on Powell's direction set algorithm to locate rapidly the local maxima in the posterior; and iii) deciding whether each located posterior peak corresponds to a real object by performing a Bayesian model selection using an approximate evidence value based on a local Gaussian approximation to the peak. The construction of this Gaussian approximation also provides the covariance matrix of the uncertainties in the derived parameter values for the object in question. This new approach provides a speed up in performance by a factor of `hundreds' as compared to existing Bayesian source extraction methods that use MCMC to explore the parameter space, such as that presented by Hobson & McLachlan. We illustrate the capabilities of the method by applying to some simplified toy models. Furthermore PowellSnakes has the advantage of consistently defining the threshold for acceptance/rejection based on priors which cannot be said of the frequentist methods. We present here the first implementation of this technique (Version-I). Further improvements to this implementation are currently under investigation and will be published shortly. The application of the method to realistic simulated Planck observations will be presented in a forthcoming publication.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

Optimal filters on the sphere

We derive optimal filters on the sphere in the context of detecting compact objects embedded in a stochastic background process. The matched filter and the scale adaptive filter are derived on the sphere in the most general setting, allowing for directional template profiles and filters. The performance and relative merits of the two optimal filters are discussed. The application of optimal filter theory on the sphere to the detection of compact objects is demonstrated on simulated mock data. A naive detection strategy is adopted, with an initial aim of illustrating the application of the new optimal filters derived on the sphere. Nevertheless, this simple object detection strategy is demonstrated to perform well, even a low signal-to-noise ratio. Code written to compute optimal filters on the sphere (S2FIL), to perform fast directional filtering on the sphere (FastCSWT) and to construct the simulated mock data (COMB) are all made publicly available from http://www.mrao.cam.ac.uk/~jdm57/

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

The Arcminute Microkelvin Imager

The Arcminute Microkelvin Imager is a pair of interferometer arrays operating with six frequency channels spanning 13.9-18.2 GHz, with very high sensitivity to angular scales 30''-10'. The telescope is aimed principally at Sunyaev-Zel'dovich imaging of clusters of galaxies. We discuss the design of the telescope and describe and explain its electronic and mechanical systems.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

Fast optimal CMB power spectrum estimation with Hamiltonian sampling

We present a method for fast optimal estimation of the temperature angular power spectrum from observations of the cosmic microwave background. We employ a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler to obtain samples from the posterior probability distribution of all the power spectrum coefficients given a set of observations. We compare the properties of the HMC and the related Gibbs sampling approach on low-resolution simulations and find that the HMC method performs favourably even in the regime of relatively low signal-to-noise. We also demonstrate the method on high-resolution data by applying it to simulated WMAP data. Analysis of a WMAP-sized data set is possible in a around eighty hours on a high-end desktop computer. HMC imposes few conditions on the distribution to be sampled and provides us with an extremely flexible approach upon which to build.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

A high-significance detection of non-Gaussianity in the WMAP 5-year data using directional spherical wavelets

We repeat the directional spherical real Morlet wavelet analysis, used to detect non-Gaussianity in the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) 1-year and 3-year data (McEwen et al. 2005, 2006a), on the WMAP 5-year data. The non-Gaussian signal detected previously is present in the 5-year data at a slightly increased statistical significance of approximately 99%. Localised regions that contribute most strongly to the non-Gaussian signal are found to be very similar to those detected in the previous releases of the WMAP data. When the localised regions detected in the 5-year data are excluded from the analysis the non-Gaussian signal is eliminated.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

A low CMB variance in the WMAP data

We have estimated the CMB variance from the three-year WMAP data, finding a value which is significantly lower than the one expected from Gaussian simulations using the WMAP best-fit cosmological model, at a significance level of 98.7 per cent. This result is even more prominent if we consider only the north ecliptic hemisphere (99.8 per cent). Different analyses have been performed in order to identify a possible origin for this anomaly. In particular we have studied the behaviour of single radiometers and single year data as well as the effect of residual foregrounds and 1/f noise, finding that none of these possibilities can explain the low value of the variance. We have also tested the effect of varying the cosmological parameters, finding that the estimated CMB variance tends to favour higher values of $n_s$ than the one of the WMAP best-fit model. In addition, we have also tested the consistency between the estimated CMB variance and the actual measured CMB power spectrum of the WMAP data, finding a strong discrepancy. A possible interpretation of this result could be a deviation from Gaussianity and/or isotropy of the CMB.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

Probing dark energy with steerable wavelets through correlation of WMAP and NVSS local morphological measures

Using local morphological measures on the sphere defined through a steerable wavelet analysis, we examine the three-year WMAP and the NVSS data for correlation induced by the integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect. The steerable wavelet constructed from the second derivative of a Gaussian allows one to define three local morphological measures, namely the signed-intensity, orientation and elongation of local features. Detections of correlation between the WMAP and NVSS data are made with each of these morphological measures. The most significant detection is obtained in the correlation of the signed-intensity of local features at a significance of 99.9%. By inspecting signed-intensity sky maps, it is possible for the first time to see the correlation between the WMAP and NVSS data by eye. Foreground contamination and instrumental systematics in the WMAP data are ruled out as the source of all significant detections of correlation. Our results provide new insight on the ISW effect by probing the morphological nature of the correlation induced between the cosmic microwave background and large scale structure of the Universe. Given the current constraints on the flatness of the Universe, our detection of the ISW effect again provides direct and independent evidence for dark energy. Moreover, this new morphological analysis may be used in future to help us to better understand the nature of dark energy.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2007

Bianchi VII_h models and the cold spot texture

We have returned to our previous Bianchi VII_h analysis in light of the Cruz et al. 2007 suggestion that the cold spot observed near the southern Galactic pole may be a remnant temperature perturbation of a cosmic texture. In Bridges et al. 2006b we found two favoured left handed Bianchi VII_h templates with restricted prior probabilities so that the template was centred close to the cold spot. Using WMAP data `corrected' for the texture fit we have now reexamined both models to assess any changes to these conclusions. We find that both models are left almost entirely unconstrained by the data and consequently exhibit significantly reduced Bayesian evidences. Both models are now disfavoured by the data. This result reinforces our previous suggestion that the cold spot was likely to be driving any Bianchi VII_h detection.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2007

AMI limits on 15 GHz excess emission in northern HII regions

We present observations between 14.2 and 17.9 GHz of sixteen Galactic HII regions made with the Arcminute Microkelvin Imager (AMI). In conjunction with data from the literature at lower radio frequencies we investigate the possibility of a spinning dust component in the spectra of these objects. We conclude that there is no significant evidence for spinning dust towards these sources and measure an average spectral index of 0.15+/-0.07 between 1.4 and 17.9 GHz for the sample.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2007

Weyssenhoff fluid dynamics in general relativity using a 1+3 covariant approach

The Weyssenhoff fluid is a perfect fluid with spin where the spin of the matter fields is the source of torsion in an Einstein-Cartan framework. Obukhov and Korotky showed that this fluid can be described as an effective fluid with spin in general relativity. A dynamical analysis of such a fluid is performed in a gauge invariant manner using the 1+3 covariant approach. This yields the propagation and constraint equations for the set of dynamical variables. A verification of these equations is performed for the special case of irrotational flow with zero peculiar acceleration by evolving the constraints.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2007

Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of Bianchi VII_h models

We have extended the analysis of Jaffe et al. to a complete Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) study of the Bianchi type ${\rm VII_h}$ models including a dark energy density, using 1-year and 3-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. Since we perform the analysis in a Bayesian framework our entire inference is contained in the multidimensional posterior distribution from which we can extract marginalised parameter constraints and the comparative Bayesian evidence. Treating the left-handed Bianchi CMB anisotropy as a template centred upon the `cold-spot' in the southern hemisphere, the parameter estimates derived for the total energy density, `tightness' and vorticity from 3-year data are found to be: $Ω_{tot} = 0.43\pm 0.04$, $h = 0.32^{+0.02}_{-0.13}$, $ω= 9.7^{+1.6}_{-1.5}\times 10^{-10}$ with orientation $γ= {337^{\circ}}^{+17}_{-23}$). This template is preferred by a factor of roughly unity in log-evidence over a concordance cosmology alone. A Bianchi type template is supported by the data only if its position on the sky is heavily restricted. The low total energy density of the preferred template, implies a geometry that is incompatible with cosmologies inferred from recent CMB observations. Jaffe et al. found that extending the Bianchi model to include a term in $Ω_Λ$ creates a degeneracy in the $Ω_m - Ω_Λ$ plane. We explore this region fully by MCMC and find that the degenerate likelihood contours do not intersect areas of parameter space that 1 or 3 year WMAP data would prefer at any significance above $2σ$. Thus we can confirm that a physical Bianchi ${\rm VII_h}$ model is not responsible for this signature.

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