arXiv subjects

M. R. S. Hawkins

Publications and source records attributed to M. R. S. Hawkins.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Triaxiality of the Milky Way dark matter halo and the microlensing optical depth towards the Large Magellanic Cloud

The microlensing optical depth towards the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), $τ_{\rm LMC}$, bounds the compact-object fraction of the Galactic dark matter halo, but is almost always evaluated for a spherical halo. We compute it for triaxial haloes and show that the shape dependence is carried entirely by the projection of the line of sight onto the halo principal axes: for a scale-free halo $ρ\propto R^{-α}$ at fixed local density it factorises exactly as $τ/τ_{\rm sph}=S_\odot^α\langle S^{-α}\rangle_w$, with $S(Ω)$ the ellipsoidal shape function. The LMC lies only $0\fdg78$ from perpendicular to the Sun-Galactic Centre line, making it a near-optimal probe of in-plane elongation and a poor probe of vertical flattening. For the halo shapes favoured by \textit{Gaia} we find $τ_{\rm LMC}/τ_{\rm sph}=0.95$--$1.15$ at fixed local density, $1.57$ for the Law-Majewski logarithmic potential, and $0.67$--$1.54$ when the major-axis azimuth is left free. For the Einasto halo required by the declining \textit{Gaia} DR3 rotation curve, truncation near $25\kpc$ is offset by the larger local density it implies and $τ$ falls by only $7$--$15$ per cent; but the median lens distance moves inwards from $13.4$ to $8.5\kpc$, where the logarithmic slope is steep and rising, amplifying the shape sensitivity: the \textit{Gaia} RR~Lyrae enhancement grows from $15$ to $23$ per cent and the orientation-free range widens to $0.62$--$1.62$. The systematic on the inferred MACHO or primordial-black-hole fraction is two-sided, of order $\pm15$ per cent for the measured shapes and a factor $2.6$ under full orientation freedom, exceeding the statistical errors of the EROS-2 and OGLE bounds.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

A critical analysis of the recent OGLE limits on stellar mass primordial black holes in the halo of the Milky Way

This paper is a response to recent claims that a population of primordial black holes in the Galactic halo has been ruled out by the OGLE collaboration. This claim was based on the latest results from the OGLE microlensing survey towards the Large Magellanic Cloud which failed to detect even the number of events expected from known stellar populations. In particular, their results are completely inconsistent with the results of the MACHO survey which detected a population of compact bodies in the Galactic halo which could not be accounted for by any known stellar population. The discrepancy between the results of these two groups has a long history, and includes problems such as different choice of photometric passbands, quality of light curves, microlensing event selection, detection efficiency, self lensing and halo models. In this paper it is demonstrated that these issues not only account for the discrepancy between the OGLE and MACHO results, but imply that the OGLE observations can put no meaningful constraints on a population of primordial black holes in the Galactic halo.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

On the detection of caustic crossing events associated with dark matter in the form of primordial black holes

The possibility that stellar mass primordial black holes may make up at least a significant fraction of dark matter has recently received much attention, partly as a result of gravitational wave observations, but more specifically from observations of microlensing in the Galactic halo and in quasar gravitational lens systems. If this is the case then a number of observable consequences are to be expected. This paper focusses on the prediction that dark matter in the form of primordial black holes will result in a web of caustics which when traversed by quasars will result in a complex but characteristic amplification of the accretion disc light source. Caustic crossings produce features in quasar light curves which are relatively straightforward to identify, and are hard to associate with any intrinsic mode of variation. Microlensing simulations are used to clarify the nature of the expected light curve features, and compared with observed light curves to demonstrate that caustic crossing features can be present. A further test of microlensing is based on the expected statistical symmetry of the light curves, which is not predicted for most models of intrinsic quasar variability, but is found in large samples of quasar light curves. The conclusion of the paper is that observations of quasar light curves are consistent with the expected microlensing amplifications from dark matter made up of stellar mass primordial black holes, but cannot easily be explained by intrinsic variations of the quasar accretion disc.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Evidence for microlensing by primordial black holes in quasar broad emission lines

With the detection of black hole mergers by the LIGO gravitational wave telescope, there has been increasing interest in the possibility that dark matter may be in the form of solar mass primordial black holes. One of the predictions implicit in this idea is that compact clouds in the broad emission line regions of high redshift quasars will be microlensed, leading to changes in line structure and the appearance of new emission features. In this paper the effect of microlensing on the broad emission line region is reviewed by reference to gravitationally lensed quasar systems where microlensing of the emission lines can be unambiguously identified. It is then shown that although changes in Seyfert galaxy line profiles occur on timescales of a few years, they are too nearby for a significant chance that they could be microlensed, and are plausibly attributed to intrinsic changes in line structure. In contrast, in a sample of 53 high redshift quasars, 9 quasars show large changes in line profile at a rate consistent with microlensing. These changes occur on a timescale an order of magnitude too short for changes associated with the dynamics of the emission line region. The main conclusion of the paper is that the observed changes in quasar emission line profiles are consistent with microlensing by a population of solar mass compact bodies making up the dark matter, although other explanations like intrinsic variability are possible. Such bodies are most plausibly identified as primordial black holes.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

New evidence for a cosmological distribution of stellar mass primordial black holes

In this paper we show that to explain the observed distribution of amplitudes in a large sample of quasar lightcurves, a significant contribution from microlensing is required. This implies the existence of a cosmologically distributed population of stellar mass compact bodies making up a large fraction of the dark matter. Our analysis is based on the lightcurves of a sample of over 1000 quasars, photometrically monitored over a period of 26 years. The intrinsic variations in quasar luminosity are derived from luminous quasars where the quasar accretion disc is too large to be microlensed by stellar mass bodies, and then synthetic lightcurves for the whole sample are constructed with the same statistical properties. We then run microlensing simulations for each quasar with convergence in compact bodies appropriate to the quasar redshift assuming a $Λ$CDM cosmology. The synthetic lightcurve is then superimposed on the amplification pattern to incorporate the effects of microlensing. The distribution of the resulting amplitudes can then be compared with observation, giving a very close match. This procedure does not involve optimising parameters or fitting to the data, as all inputs such as lens mass and quasar disc size come from independent observations in the literature. The overall conclusion of the paper is that to account for the distribution of quasar lightcurve amplitudes it is necessary to include the microlensing effects of a cosmologically distributed population of stellar mass compact bodies, most plausibly identified as stellar mass primordial black holes.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

The double quasar Q2138-431: detection of a lensing galaxy

This paper reviews the question of whether the wide separation double quasar Q2138-431 is a gravitational lens. From early work, the two quasar images are known to have almost identical spectra and redshifts, but no lensing galaxy has so far been detected. In this paper we used recent deep surveys in infrared and optical bands to search for the presence of a galaxy with the expected properties of a gravitational lens. The search revealed a $5 σ$ detection of a faint galaxy between the two quasar images on a deep $J$-band frame from the VISTA Science Archive, with apparent magnitude $J = 20.68$. Non-detection in the $I$-band implied a redshift $z > 0.6$, and mass modelling of the quasar system gave a mass of $1.31 \times 10^{12} M_\odot$ for the lensing galaxy, with mass-to-light ratio $M_{\odot}/L_{\odot} = 9.0$. Archival photographic data from the UK 1.2m Schmidt telescope covering 25 years were used to construct light curves for the two quasar images, which were then cross-correlated to measure any time lag. This showed image B to lead image A by around a year, consistent with 410 days from the mass model. Although the similarity of the spectra and the detection of the lensing galaxy are the most compelling arguments for the classification of Q2138-431 as a gravitational lens, the time delay and mass-to-light ratio provide a consistent picture to support this conclusion. The wide separation of the quasar images and the simplicity of the mass model make Q2138-431 an excellent system for the measurement of the Hubble constant.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

SDSS J1004+4112: the case for a galaxy cluster dominated by primordial black holes

The aim of this paper is to provide a plausible explanation for the large amplitude microlensing events observed in the cluster lensed quasar system SDSS J1004+4112. The microlensed quasar images appear to lie well clear of the stellar population of the cluster, raising the possibility that the cluster dark matter is composed of compact bodies which are responsible for the observed microlensing. In the first part of the paper we establish the exact structure of the difference light curves attributed to microlensing from photometric monitoring programmes in the literature. We then show from measures of surface brightness that the probability of microlensing by stars in the cluster is negligibly small. Finally we relax our assumption that the cluster dark matter is in the form of smoothly distributed particles, but instead is made up of compact bodies. We then use computer simulations of the resulting magnification pattern to estimate the probability of microlensing. Our results show that for a range of values for source size and lens mass the observed large microlensing amplitude is consistent with the statistics from the simulations. We conclude that providing the assumption of smoothly distributed dark matter is relaxed, the observed large amplitude microlensing can be accounted for by allowing the cluster dark matter to be in the form of solar mass compact bodies. We further conclude that the most plausible identity for these bodies is primordial black holes.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

The signature of primordial black holes in the dark matter halos of galaxies

The aim of this paper is to investigate the claim that stars in the lensing galaxy of a gravitationally lensed quasar system can always account for the observed microlensing of the individual quasar images. A small sample of gravitationally lensed quasar systems was chosen where the quasar images appear to lie on the fringe of the stellar distribution of the lensing galaxy. As with most quasar systems, all the individual quasar images were observed to be microlensed. The surface brightness of the lensing galaxy at the positions of the quasar images was measured from HST frames, and converted to stellar surface mass density. The surface density of smoothly distributed dark matter at the image positions was obtained from lensing models of the quasar systems and applied to the stellar surface mass density to give the optical depth to microlensing. This was then used to assess the probability that the stars in the lensing galaxy could be responsible for the observed microlensing. The results were supported by microlensing simulations of the star fields around the quasar images combined with values of convergence and shear from the lensing models. Taken together, the probability that all the observed microlensing is due to stars was found to be ~0.0003. Errors resulting from surface brightness measurement, mass-to-light ratio and the contribution of the dark matter halo do not significantly affect this result. It is argued that the most plausible candidates for the microlenses are primordial black holes, either in the dark matter halos of the lensing galaxies, or more generally distributed along the lines of sight to the quasars.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2015

A new look at microlensing limits on dark matter in the Galactic halo

The motivation for this paper is to review the limits set on the MACHO content of the Galactic halo by microlensing experiments in the direction of the Large Magellanic Cloud. This has been prompted by recent measurements of the Galactic rotation curve, which suggest that the limits have been biassed by the assumption of an over-massive halo. The paper first discusses the security of the detection efficiency calculations which are central to deriving the MACHO content of the Galactic halo. It then sets out to compare the rotation curves from various halo models with recent observations, with a view to establishing what limits can be put on an all-MACHO halo. The main thrust of the paper is to investigate whether lighter halo models which are consistent with microlensing by an all-MACHO halo are also consistent with recent measures of the Galactic rotation curve. In this case the population of bodies discovered by the MACHO collaboration would make up the entire dark matter content of the Galactic halo. The main result of this paper is that it is easy to find low mass halo models consistent with the observed Galactic rotation curve, which also imply an optical depth to microlensing similar to that found by the MACHO collaboration. This means that all-MACHO halos cannot be ruled out on the basis of their observations. In conclusion, limits placed on the MACHO content of the Galactic halo from microlensing surveys in the Magellanic Clouds are inconsistent and model dependent, and do not provide a secure basis for rejecting an all-MACHO halo.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2011

The case for primordial black holes as dark matter

The aim of this paper is to present the case that stellar mass primordial black holes make up the dark matter component of the Universe. A near critical density of compact bodies implies that most lines of sight will be gravitationally microlensed, and the paper focuses on looking for the predicted effects on quasar brightness and spectral variations. These signatures of microlensing include the shape of the Fourier power spectrum of the light curves, near achromatic and statistically symmetric variations, and the absence of time dilation in the timescale of variability. For spectral changes, as the continuum varies there should be little corresponding change in the strength of the broad lines. In all these cases, the observations are found to be consistent with the predictions for microlensing by a population of stellar mass compact bodies. For multiply lensed quasars where the images vary independently it is shown that stellar populations are too small to produce the observed microlensing effects, implying a population of compact dark matter bodies of around a stellar mass along the line of sight. The most serious objection to dark matter in the form of compact bodies has come from observations of microlensing of stars in the Magellanic Clouds. In this paper the expected event rate is re-analysed using more recent values for the structure and dynamics of the Galactic halo, and it is shown that there is then no conflict with the observations. Finally, the possible identity of a near critical density of dark matter in the form of stellar mass compact bodies is reviewed, with the conclusion that by far the most plausible candidates are primordial black holes formed during the QCD epoch. The overall conclusion of the paper is that primordial black holes should be seen alongside elementary particles as viable dark matter candidates.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2010

On time dilation in quasar light curves

In this paper we set out to measure time dilation in quasar light curves. In order to detect the effects of time dilation, sets of light curves from two monitoring programmes are used to construct Fourier power spectra covering timescales from 50 days to 28 years. Data from high and low redshift samples are compared to look for the changes expected from time dilation. The main result of the paper is that quasar light curves do not show the effects of time dilation. Several explanations are discussed, including the possibility that time dilation effects are exactly offset by an increase in timescale of variation associated with black hole growth, or that the variations are caused by microlensing in which case time dilation would not be expected.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2007

Trigonometric parallaxes of high velocity halo white dwarf candidates

The status of 38 halo white dwarf candidates identified by Oppenheimer et al. (2001) has been intensively discussed by various authors. In analyses undertaken to date, trigonometric parallaxes are crucial missing data. Distance measurements are mandatory to kinematically segregate halo object from disk objects and hence enable a more reliable estimate of the local density of halo dark matter residing in such objects. We present trigonometric parallax measurements for 15 candidate halo white dwarfs (WDs) selected from the Oppenheimer et al. (2001) list. We observed the stars using the ESO 1.56-m Danish Telescope and ESO 2.2-m telescope from August 2001 to July 2004. Parallaxes with accuracies of 1--2 mas were determined yielding relative errors on distances of $\sim5$% for 6 objects, $\sim12$% for 3 objects, and $\sim20$% for two more objects. Four stars appear to be too distant (probably farther than 100 pc) to have measurable parallaxes in our observations. Distances, absolute magnitudes and revised space velocities were derived for the 15 halo WDs from the Oppenheimer et al. (2001) list. Halo membership is confirmed unambiguously for 6 objects while 5 objects may be thick disk members and 4 objects are too distant to draw any conclusion based solely on kinematics. Comparing our trigonometric parallaxes with photometric parallaxes used in previous work reveals an overestimation of distance as derived from photometric techniques. This new data set can be used to revise the halo white dwarf space density, and that analysis will be presented in a subsequent publication.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2006

Timescale of variation and the size of the accretion disc in active galactic nuclei

This paper sets out to measure the timescale of quasar variability with a view to new understanding of the size of accretion discs in active galactic nuclei. Previous attempts to measure such timescales have been based on sparsely sampled data covering small ranges of time. Here we combine data from two large scale monitoring programmes to obtain Fourier power spectra of light curves covering nearly three orders of magnitude in frequency in blue and red passbands. If the variations are interpreted as due to gravitational microlensing, then timescale measurements in the observer's frame imply a minimum mass for the microlensing bodies of around $0.4 M_{\odot}$. On the assumption that the variations are intrinsic to the quasars, a correction must be made for time dilation. In this case the power spectrum shows a break corresponding to a timescale of about 11 years. This timescale is used to measure the size of the accretion disc, which is found to be about $10^{-2}$ pc or 10 light days, in agreement with limits set by self-gravitation and coincident with the broad line region of the active galactic nucleus. It is suggested that the broad line region may be associated with the break up of the outer part of the accretion disc.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2004

Colour changes in quasar light curves

The study of quasar variability has long been seen as a way to understanding the structure of the central engine of active galactic nuclei, and as a means of verifying the morphology of the standard model. Much work has already been done on the statistical properties of light curves monitored in one colour, and it is now possible to use these observations to test predictions of theoretical models. The addition of a second colour can add enormously to the power of such tests, and put tight constraints on the nature of the variations. In this paper a yearly monitoring programme of several hundred quasars in blue and red passbands covering 21 years is presented. The statistics of colour changes are examined for a 15 year period of homogeneous data with Fourier power spectrum analysis, in a form suitable for testing against theoretical predictions. The results of the Fourier analysis show that there is more power in blue light on all timescales than in the red. Examination of the light curves shows several different modes of colour change. However, if allowance is made for the effects of the underlying host galaxy, the variations become close to achromatie. There are however structural differences between red and blue light curves which cannot be accounted for in this way, and various modes of variability including disc instability and microlensing are examined to provide explanations for these features.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2004

Naked active galactic nuclei

In this paper we report the discovery of a new class of active galactic nucleus in which although the nucleus is viewed directly, no broad emission lines are present. The results are based on a survey for AGN in which a sample of about 800 quasars and emission line galaxies were monitored yearly for 25 years. Among the emission line galaxies was the expected population of Seyfert 2 galaxies with only narrow forbidden lines in emission, and no broad lines. However, from the long term monitoring programme it was clear that some 10% of these were strongly variable with strong continuum emission. It is argued that these objects can only be Seyfert 1 galaxies in which the nucleus is viewed directly, but in which broad emission lines are completely absent. We compare these observations with other cases from the literature where the broad line region is reported to be weak or variable, and investigate the possibility that the absence of the broad line component is due to reddening. We conclude that this does not account for the observations, and that in these AGN the broad line region is absent. We also tentatively identify more luminous quasars from our sample where the broad emission lines also appear to be absent. The consequences of this for AGN models are discussed, and a case is made that we are seeing AGN in a transition stage between the fuel supply from a surrounding star cluster being cut off, and the nucleus becoming dormant.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2001

Variability in active galactic nuclei: confrontation of models with observations

The variability of active galactic nuclei (AGN) has long held the promise of shedding light on their detailed structure, and possibly other astrophysical phenonema. Different emission mechanisms lead to different patterns of variability in flux which are in principle easily distinguishable. Recent predictions for the expected spectrum of variations for various models are now in such a form that they can be compared with the observed statistical properties of AGN light curves from large scale monitoring programmes. In this paper, we use the results of a long term monitoring programme of a large sample of quasars and Seyfert galaxies, as well as individual light curves from the literature, to distinguish between the various model predictions. The results favour a model based on accretion disc instability over the starburst model where the variation comes from a succession of supernova bursts, but it also appears that much of the observed variation in quasars is due to gravitational microlensing.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2001

Time Dilation and Quasar Variability

The timescale of quasar variability is widely expected to show the effects of time dilation. In this paper we analyse the Fourier power spectra of a large sample of quasar light curves to look for such an effect. We find that the timescale of quasar variation does not increase with redshift as required by time dilation. Possible explanations of this result all conflict with widely held consensus in the scientific community.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2000

The PSCz Catalogue

We present the catalogue, mask, redshift data and selection function for the PSCz survey of 15411 IRAS galaxies across 84% of the sky. Most of the IRAS data is taken from the Point Source Catalog, but this has been supplemented and corrected in various ways to improve the completeness and uniformity. We quantify the known imperfections in the catalogue, and we assess the overall uniformity, completeness and data quality. We find that overall the catalogue is complete and uniform to within a few percent at high latitudes and 10% at low latitudes. Ancillary information, access details, guidelines and caveats for using the catalogue are given.

astro-ph↗