arXiv subjects

M. S. Potgieter

Publications and source records attributed to M. S. Potgieter.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

On modelling the 2017 galactic cosmic ray depression

In the second half of 2017, as Solar Cycle 24 approached its minimum, a pronounced and rigidity-dependent depression in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) proton flux was observed using AMS-02. This event was driven by a sequence of strong coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In this work, we model the modulation of GCR protons during this period using a steady-state Parker transport framework with parameters constrained by AMS-02 observations. Treating the event as a purely long-term modulation interval yields excellent agreement with the observed proton intensities, but implies an inferred rigidity dependence of particle mean free paths that is inconsistent with basic turbulence theory, corresponding to an effective inversion of the scattering regime. We argue that this behaviour arises from the ability of highly flexible transport parameterizations to reproduce integrated modulation signatures through correlated adjustments of diffusion coefficients during transient events. To address this inconsistency, we relax the commonly adopted assumption of a time-independent ratio of perpendicular to parallel diffusion coefficients and introduce a physically motivated reduction of this ratio during the CME-dominated interval. This modification preserves the quality of the spectral fits whilst restoring the expected rigidity ordering of mean free paths. Our results indicate that allowing the perpendicular-to-parallel diffusion ratio to vary in time provides an effective means of constraining transport solutions during the 2017 depression and may help to resolve similar inconsistencies reported in other GCR modulation studies.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

The source of the 2017 cosmic ray half-year modulation event

In 2017, as the solar cycle approached solar minimum, an unusually long and large depression was observed in galactic cosmic ray (GCR) protons, detected with the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02), lasting for the second half of that year. The depression, as seen in the Bartel rotation-averaged proton flux, has the form of a Forbush decrease (FD). Despite this resemblance, however, the cause of the observed depression does not have such a simple explanation as FDs, due to coronal mass ejections (CMEs), typically last for a few days at 1 AU rather than half a year. In this work, we seek the cause of the observed depression and investigate two main possibilities. First, we consider a mini-cycle - a temporary change in the solar dynamo that changes the behavior of the global solar magnetic field and, by this, the modulation of GCRs. Secondly, we investigate the behavior of solar activity, both CMEs and co-rotating/stream interactions regions (C/SIRs), during this period. Our findings show that, although there is some evidence for mini-cycle behavior prior to the depression, the depression is ultimately due to a combination of recurrent CMEs, SIRs and CIRs. A particular characteristic of the depression is that the largest impacts that help to create and maintain it are due to four CMEs from the same, highly active, magnetic source that persists for several solar rotations. This active magnetic source is unusual given the closeness of the solar cycle to solar minimum, which also helps to make the depression more evident.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Modulation of cosmic ray anti-protons in the heliosphere: simulations for a solar cycle

The precision measurements of galactic cosmic ray protons from PAMELA and AMS are reproduced using a well-established 3D numerical model for the period July 2006 - November 2019. The resulting modulation parameters are applied to simulate the modulation for cosmic antiprotons over the same period, which includes times of minimum modulation before and after 2009, maximum modulation from 2012 to 2015 including the reversal of the Sun's magnetic field polarity, and the approach to new minimum modulation in 2020. Apart from their local interstellar spectra, the modulation of protons and antiprotons differ only in their charge-sign and consequent drift pattern. The lowest proton flux was in February-March 2014, but the lowest simulated antiproton flux is found to be in March-April 2015. These simulated fluxes are used to predict the proton to anti-proton ratios as a function of rigidity. The trends in these ratios contribute to clarify to a large extent the phenomenon of charge-sign dependence of heliospheric modulation during vastly different phases of the solar activity cycle. This is reiterated and emphasized by displaying so-called hysteresis loops. It is also illustrated how the values of the parallel and perpendicular mean free paths, as well as the drift scale, vary with rigidity over this extensive period. The drift scale is found to be at its lowest level during the polarity reversal period, while the lowest level of the mean free paths are found to be in March-April 2015.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Unfolding Drift Effects for Cosmic Rays over the Period of the Sun's Magnetic Field Reversal

A well-established, comprehensive 3-D numerical modulation model is applied to simulate galactic protons, electrons and positrons from May 2011 to May 2015, including the solar magnetic polarity reversal of Solar Cycle 24. The objective is to evaluate how these simulations compare with corresponding AMS observations for 1.0-3.0 GV, and what underlying physics follows from this comparison in order to improve our understanding on how the major physical modulation processes change, especially particle drift, from a negative to a positive magnetic polarity cycle. Apart from their local interstellar spectra, electrons and positrons differ only in their drift patterns, but they differ with protons in other ways such as their adiabatic energy changes at lower rigidity. In order to complete the simulations for oppositely charged particles, antiproton modeling results are obtained as well. Together, the observations and the corresponding modeling indicate the difference in the drift pattern before and after the recent polarity reversal and clarify to a large extent the phenomenon of charge-sign dependence during this period. The effect of global particle drift became negligible during this period of no well-defined magnetic polarity. The resulting low values of all particles' MFPs during the polarity reversal contrast their large values during solar minimum activity, and as such expose the relative contributions and effects of the different modulation processes from solar minimum to maximum activity. We find that the drift scale starts recovering just after the polarity reversal, but the MFPs keep decreasing or remain unchanged for some period after the polarity reversal.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Helium fluxes measured by the PAMELA experiment from the minimum to the maximum solar activity for solar cycle 24

Time-dependent energy spectra of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) carry fundamental information regarding their origin and propagation. When observed at the Earth, these spectra are significantly affected by the solar wind and the embedded solar magnetic field that permeates the heliosphere, changing significantly over an 11-year solar cycle. Energy spectra of GCRs measured during different epochs of solar activity provide crucial information for a thorough understanding of solar and heliospheric phenomena. The PAMELA experiment had collected data for almost ten years (15th June 2006 - 23rd January 2016), including the minimum phase of solar cycle 23 and the maximum phase of solar cycle 24. In this paper, we present new spectra for helium nuclei measured by the PAMELA instrument from January 2010 to September 2014 over a three Carrington rotation time basis. These data are compared to the PAMELA spectra measured during the previous solar minimum providing a picture of the time dependence of the helium nuclei fluxes over a nearly full solar cycle. Time and rigidity dependencies are observed in the proton-to-helium flux ratios. The force-field approximation of the solar modulation was used to relate these dependencies to the shapes of the local interstellar proton and helium-nuclei spectra.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Study of the 27-day variations in GCR fluxes during 2007-2008 based on PAMELA and ARINA observations

Using measurements from the PAMELA and ARINA spectrometers onboard the RESURS DK-1 satellite, we have examined the 27-day intensity variations in galactic cosmic ray (GCR) proton fluxes in 2007-2008. The PAMELA and ARINA data allow for the first time a study of time profiles and the rigidity dependence of the 27-day variations observed directly in space in a wide rigidity range from ~300 MV to several GV. We find that the rigidity dependence of the amplitude of the 27-day GCR variations cannot be described by the same power-law at both low and high energies. A flat interval occurs at rigidity R = <0.6-1.0> GV with a power-law index gamma = - 0.13+/-0.44 for PAMELA, whereas for R >= 1 GV the power-law dependence is evident with index gamma = - 0.51+/-0.11. We describe the rigidity dependence of the 27-day GCR variations for PAMELA and ARINA data in the framework of the modulation potential concept using the force-field approximation for GCR transport. For a physical interpretation, we have considered the relationship between the 27-day GCR variations and solar wind plasma and other heliospheric parameters. Moreover, we have discussed possible implications of MHD modeling of the solar wind plasma together with a stochastic GCR transport model concerning the effects of corotating interaction regions.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Time and Charge-Sign Dependence of the Heliospheric Modulation of Cosmic Rays

Simultaneous and continuous observations of galactic cosmic-ray electrons and positrons from the PAMELA and AMS02 space experiments are most suitable for numerical modeling studies of the heliospheric modulation of these particles below 50 GeV. A well-established comprehensive three-dimensional modulation model is applied to compute full spectra for electrons and positrons with the purpose of reproducing the observed ratio positrons/electrons for a period which covers the previous long and unusual deep solar minimum activity and the recent maximum activity phase including the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field. For this purpose the very local interstellar spectra for these particles were established first. Our study is focused on how the main modulation processes, including particle drifts, and other parameters such as the three major diffusion coefficients, had evolved, and how the corresponding charge-sign dependent modulation had occurred subsequently. The end result of our effort is the detailed reproduction of positron/electrons from 2006 to 2015, displaying both qualitative and quantitative agreement with the main observed features. Particularly, we determine how much particle drifts is needed to explain the time dependence exhibited by the observed positron/electron during each solar activity phase, especially during the polarity reversal phase when no well-defined magnetic polarity was found.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Time dependence of the flux of helium nuclei in cosmic rays measured by the PAMELA experiment between July 2006 and December 2009

Precise time-dependent measurements of the Z = 2 component in the cosmic radiation provide crucial information about the propagation of charged particles through the heliosphere. The PAMELA experiment, with its long flight duration (15th June 2006 - 23rd January 2016) and the low energy threshold (80 MeV/n) is an ideal detector for cosmic ray solar modulation studies. In this paper, the helium nuclei spectra measured by the PAMELA instrument from July 2006 to December 2009 over a Carrington rotation time basis are presented. A state-of-the-art three-dimensional model for cosmic-ray propagation inside the heliosphere was used to interpret the time-dependent measured fluxes. Proton-to-helium flux ratio time profiles at various rigidities are also presented in order to study any features which could result from the different masses and local interstellar spectra shapes.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

New very local interstellar spectra for electrons, positrons, protons and light cosmic ray nuclei

The local interstellar spectra (LIS's) for galactic cosmic rays (CR's) cannot be directly observed at the Earth below certain energies, because of solar modulation in the heliosphere. With Voyager 1 crossing the heliopause in 2012, in situ experimental LIS data below 100 MeV/nuc can now constrain computed galactic CR spectra. Using galactic propagation models, galactic electron, proton and light nuclei spectra can be computed, now more reliably as very LIS's. Using the Voyager 1 observations made beyond the heliopause, and the observations made by the PAMELA experiment in Earth orbit for the 2009 solar minimum, as experimental constraints, we simultaneously reproduced the CR electron, proton, Helium and Carbon observations by implementing the GALPROP code. Below about 30 GeV/nuc solar modulation has a significant effect and a comprehensive three-dimensional (3D) numerical modulation model is used to compare the computed spectra with the observed PAMELA spectra possible at these energies. Subsequently the computed LIS's can be compared over as wide a range of energies as possible. The simultaneous calculation CR spectra with a single propagation model allows the LIS's for positrons, Boron and Oxygen to also be inferred. This implementation of the most comprehensive galactic propagation model (GALPROP), alongside a sophisticated solar modulation model to compute CR spectra for comparison with both Voyager 1 and PAMELA observations over a wide energy range, allows us to present new self-consistent very LIS's (and expressions) for electrons, positrons, protons, Helium, Carbon, Boron and Oxygen for the energy range of 3 MeV/nuc to 100 GeV/nuc.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2018

Modeling of Heliospheric Modulation of Cosmic-ray Positrons in a Very Quiet Heliosphere

Heliospheric modulation conditions were unusually quite during the last solar minimum activity between Solar Cycles 23/24. Fortunately, the PAMELA space-experiment measured six-month averaged Galactic positron spectra for the period July 2006 to December 2009, over an energy range of 80 MeV to 30 GeV, which is important for solar modulation. The highest level of Galactic positrons was observed at Earth during the July-December 2009 period. A well-established, comprehensive three-dimensional (3D) numerical model is applied to study the modulation of the observed positron spectra. This model had been used previously to understand the modulation of Galactic protons and electrons also measured by PAMELA for the same period. First, a new very local interstellar spectrum for positrons is constructed, using the well-known GALPROP code together with the mentioned PAMELA observations. The 3D model is used to distinguish between the dominant mechanisms responsible for the heliospheric modulation of Galactic positrons, and to understand the effect of particle drift during this unusual minimum in particular, which is considered diffusion dominant, even though particle drift still had a significant role in modulating positrons. Lastly, the expected intensity of Galactic positrons during an A>0 polarity minimum, with similar heliospheric conditions than for 2006-2009, is predicted to be higher than what was observed by PAMELA for the 2006-2009 unusual minimum.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2018

Evidence of energy and charge sign dependence of the recovery time for the December 2006 Forbush event measured by the PAMELA experiment

New results on the short-term galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity variation (Forbush decrease) in December 2006 measured by the PAMELA instrument are presented. Forbush decreases are sudden suppressions of the GCR intensities which are associated with the passage of interplanetary transients such as shocks and interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). Most of the past measurements of this phenomenon were carried out with ground-based detectors such as neutron monitors or muon telescopes. These techniques allow only the indirect detection of the overall GCR intensity over an integrated energy range. For the first time, thanks to the unique features of the PAMELA magnetic spectrometer, the Forbush decrease commencing on 2006 December 14, following a CME at the Sun on 2006 December 13 was studied in a wide rigidity range (0.4 - 20 GV) and for different species of GCRs detected directly in space. The daily averaged GCR proton intensity was used to investigate the rigidity dependence of the amplitude and the recovery time of the Forbush decrease. Additionally, for the first time, the temporal variations in the helium and electron intensities during a Forbush decrease were studied. Interestingly, the temporal evolutions of the helium and proton intensities during the Forbush decrease were found in good agreement, while the low rigidity electrons (< 2 GV) displayed a faster recovery. This difference in the electron recovery is interpreted as a charge-sign dependence introduced by drift motions experienced by the GCRs during their propagation through the heliosphere.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2018

Proton fluxes measured by the PAMELA experiment from the minimum to the maximum solar activity for the 24th solar cycle

Precise measurements of the time-dependent intensity of the low energy ($<50$ GeV) galactic cosmic rays are fundamental to test and improve the models which describe their propagation inside the heliosphere. Especially, data spanning different solar activity periods, i.e. from minimum to maximum, are needed to achieve comprehensive understanding of such physical phenomenon. The minimum phase between the 23$^{rd}$ and the 24$^{th}$ solar cycles was peculiarly long, extending up to the beginning of 2010 and followed by the maximum phase, reached during early 2014. In this paper, we present proton differential spectra measured from January 2010 to February 2014 by the PAMELA experiment. For the first time the galactic cosmic ray proton intensity was studied over a wide energy range (0.08-50 GeV) by a single apparatus from a minimum to a maximum period of solar activity. The large statistics allowed the time variation to be investigated on a nearly monthly basis. Data were compared and interpreted in the context of a state-of-the-art three-dimensional model describing the galactic cosmic rays propagation through the heliosphere.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2017

Solar modulation of cosmic ray positrons in a very quiet heliosphere

Since the beginning of the space exploration era, solar activity was observed at its lowest level during 2006 to 2009. During this period, the PAMELA space experiment observed spectra for galactic cosmic rays, specifically for protons, electrons and positrons over a wide energy range, during what is called an A < 0 solar magnetic polarity cycle. Drift theory predicts a difference in the behaviour for these oppositely charge particles during A < 0 cycles. An opportunity was thus created to study the predicted charge-sign-dependent modulation, also now for very quiet heliospheric conditions. A comprehensive three-dimensional, drift modulation model has been used to study the solar modulation for cosmic rays in detail with extensive comparison to the observed PAMELA spectra for the mentioned period. First, this was done for protons and secondly for electrons, as already published, to test and to authenticate the modelling approach and then to come to a better understanding and appreciation of the underlying physics, such as diffusion and drift theory. The results were also used to make predictions of how cosmic rays are differently modulated down to low energies (1 MeV) for the two magnetic polarity cycles of the Sun, and what role drifts play in this process. All computed solutions are based on new very local interstellar spectra, now also done for positrons. This report is focussed on detailed aspects of the solar modulation of positrons during the extraordinary quiet solar modulation period from 2006 to 2009. For the first time, a meaningful modulation factor in the heliosphere is computed for positrons, from 50 GeV down to 1 MeV, as well as the electron to positron ratios as a function of time and rigidity for the mentioned period.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2017

Acceleration of galactic electrons at the solar wind termination shock and Voyager 1 observations

Diffusive shock acceleration (DSA), as an acceleration process for Galactic electrons at the solar wind termination shock (TS), is investigated with a comprehensive numerical model which incorporates shock-acceleration, particle drifts and other major modulation processes in the heliosphere. It is known from our previous work that the efficiency of DSA depends on the shape of electron spectra incident on the TS, which in turn depends on the spectral shape of the very local interstellar spectrum. Modulation processes also influence the efficiency of DSA. We find that TS accelerated electrons can make contributions throughout the heliosphere to intensity levels, especially at lower energies. An interesting result is that increases caused by DSA at the TS are comparable in magnitude to electron intensity enhancements observed by Voyager 1 ahead of the TS crossing. These intensity increases are large enough to account for observed intensity peaks, and thus supports the view that DSA is involved in their production. Additionally, the energy spectra observed by Voyager 1 throughout the heliosheath are reproduced satisfactorily, as well as the PAMELA spectrum at Earth at higher energies. We also find that an increase in the rigidity dependence of the diffusion coefficients for these low-energy electrons seems required to reproduce the spectral shape of observed modulated spectra in the heliosheath at kinetic energy E < ~ 4 MeV. This is different from intermediate energies where rigidity independent diffusion explains observations satisfactory.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2016

Heliosheath Processes and the Structure of the Heliopause: Modeling Energetic Particles, Cosmic Rays, and Magnetic Fields

This paper summarizes the results obtained by the team "Heliosheath Processes and the Structure of the Heliopause: Modeling Energetic Particles, Cosmic Rays, and Magnetic Fields" supported by the International Space Science Institute in Bern, Switzerland. We focus on the physical processes occurring in the outer heliosphere, especially at its boundary called the heliopause (HP), and in the LISM. The importance of magnetic field, charge exchange between atoms and ions, and solar cycle on the heliopause topology and observed heliocentric distances to different heliospheric discontinuities are discussed. It is shown that time-dependent boundary conditions are necessary to describe the heliospheric asymmetries detected by the Voyager spacecraft. We also discuss the structure of the HP, especially due to its instability and magnetic reconnection. It is demonstrated that the Rayleigh-Taylor instability of the nose of the HP creates consecutive layers of the interstellar and heliospheric plasma which are magnetically connected to different sources. This may be a possible explanation of abrupt changes in the galactic and anomalous cosmic ray fluxes observed by Voyager 1 when it was crossing the HP structure for a period of about one month in the summer of 2012. This paper also discusses the plausibility of fitting simulation results to a number of observational data sets obtained by in situ and remote measurements. The distribution of magnetic field in the vicinity of the HP is discussed in the context of Voyager measurements. We discuss the transport of energetic particles in the inner and outer heliosheath, concentrating on the anisotropic spatial diffusion diffusion tensor and the pitch-angle dependence of perpendicular diffusion and demonstrate that the latter can explain the observed pitch-angle anisotropies of both the anomalous and galactic cosmic rays in the outer heliosheath.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2016

Global gradients for cosmic-ray protons in the heliosphere during the solar minimum of cycle 23/24

Global gradients for cosmic-ray (CR) protons in the heliosphere are computed with a comprehensive modulation model for the recent prolonged solar minimum of Cycle 23/24. Fortunately, the PAMELA (Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics) and Ulysses/KET (Kiel Electron Telescope) instruments simultaneously observed proton intensities for the period between July 2006 and June 2009. Radial and latitudinal gradients are calculated from measurements, with the latter possible because Ulysses changed its position significantly in the heliocentric meridional plane during this period. The modulation model is set up for the conditions that prevailed during this unusual solar minimum period to gain insight into the role role that particle drifts played in establishing the observed gradients for this period. Four year-end PAMELA proton spectra were reproduced with the model, from 2006 to 2009, followed by corresponding radial profiles that were computed along the Voyager-1 trajectory, and compared to available observations. It is found that the computed intensity levels are in agreement with solar minimum observations from Voyager-1 at multiple energies. The model also reproduces the steep intensity increase observed when Voyager-1 crossed the heliopause region. Good agreement is found between computed and observed latitudinal gradients so that we conclude that the model gives a most reasonable representation of modulation conditions from the Earth to the heliopause for the period from 2006 to 2009. As a characteristic feature of CR drifts, the most negative latitudinal gradient is computed for 2009, with a value of -0.15%/degree around 600 MV. The maximum radial gradient in the inner heliosphere (as covered by Ulysses) also occurs in this range, with the highest value of 4.25%/AU in 2009.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2016

New evidence for charge-sign dependent modulation during the solar minimum of 2006 to 2009

The PAMELA space experiment, in orbit since 2006, has measured cosmic rays through the most recent A < 0 solar minimum activity period. During this entire time, galactic electrons and protons have been detected down to 70 MV and 400 MV, respectively, and their differential intensity variation in time has been monitored with unprecedented accuracy. These observations are used to show how differently electrons and protons responded to the quiet modulation conditions that prevailed from 2006 to 2009. It is well known that particle drifts, as one of four major mechanisms for the solar modulation of cosmic rays, cause charge-sign dependent solar modulation. Solar minimum activity periods provide optimal conditions to study these drift effects. The observed behaviour is compared to the solutions of a three-dimensional model for cosmic rays in the heliosphere, including drifts. The numerical results confirm that the difference in the evolution of electron and proton spectra during the last prolonged solar minimum is attributed to a large extent to particle drifts. We therefore present new evidence of charge-sign dependent solar modulation, with perspective on its peculiarities for the observed period from 2006 to 2009.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2016

Time dependence of the electron and positron components of the cosmic radiation measured by the PAMELA experiment between July 2006 and December 2015

Cosmic-ray electrons and positrons are a unique probe of the propagation of cosmic rays as well as of the nature and distribution of particle sources in our Galaxy. Recent measurements of these particles are challenging our basic understanding of the mechanisms of production, acceleration and propagation of cosmic rays. Particularly striking are the differences between the low energy results collected by the space-borne PAMELA and AMS-02 experiments and older measurements pointing to sign-charge dependence of the solar modulation of cosmic-ray spectra. The PAMELA experiment has been measuring the time variation of the positron and electron intensity at Earth from July 2006 to December 2015 covering the period for the minimum of solar cycle 23 (2006-2009) till the middle of the maximum of solar cycle 24, through the polarity reversal of the heliospheric magnetic field which took place between 2013 and 2014. The positron to electron ratio measured in this time period clearly shows a sign-charge dependence of the solar modulation introduced by particle drifts. These results provide the first clear and continuous observation of how drift effects on solar modulation have unfolded with time from solar minimum to solar maximum and their dependence on the particle rigidity and the cyclic polarity of the solar magnetic field.

astro-ph.HE↗