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M. Soares-Santos

Publications and source records attributed to M. Soares-Santos.

At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources

Density split statistics: Cosmological constraints from counts and lensing in cells in DES Y1 and SDSS data

We derive cosmological constraints from the probability distribution function (PDF) of evolved large-scale matter density fluctuations. We do this by splitting lines of sight by density based on their count of tracer galaxies, and by measuring both gravitational shear around and counts-in-cells in overdense and underdense lines of sight, in Dark Energy Survey (DES) First Year and Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data. Our analysis uses a perturbation theory model (see companion paper Friedrich at al.) and is validated using N-body simulation realizations and log-normal mocks. It allows us to constrain cosmology, bias and stochasticity of galaxies w.r.t. matter density and, in addition, the skewness of the matter density field. From a Bayesian model comparison, we find that the data weakly prefer a connection of galaxies and matter that is stochastic beyond Poisson fluctuations on <=20 arcmin angular smoothing scale. The two stochasticity models we fit yield DES constraints on the matter density $Ω_m=0.26^{+0.04}_{-0.03}$ and $Ω_m=0.28^{+0.05}_{-0.04}$ that are consistent with each other. These values also agree with the DES analysis of galaxy and shear two-point functions (3x2pt) that only uses second moments of the PDF. Constraints on $σ_8$ are model dependent ($σ_8=0.97^{+0.07}_{-0.06}$ and $0.80^{+0.06}_{-0.07}$ for the two stochasticity models), but consistent with each other and with the 3x2pt results if stochasticity is at the low end of the posterior range. As an additional test of gravity, counts and lensing in cells allow to compare the skewness $S_3$ of the matter density PDF to its LCDM prediction. We find no evidence of excess skewness in any model or data set, with better than 25 per cent relative precision in the skewness estimate from DES alone.

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On the relative bias of void tracers in the Dark Energy Survey

Luminous tracers of large-scale structure are not entirely representative of the distribution of mass in our Universe. As they arise from the highest peaks in the matter density field, the spatial distribution of luminous objects is biased towards those peaks. On large scales, where density fluctuations are mild, this bias simply amounts to a constant offset in the clustering amplitude of the tracer, known as linear bias. In this work we focus on the relative bias between galaxies and galaxy clusters that are located inside and in the vicinity of cosmic voids, extended regions of relatively low density in the large-scale structure of the Universe. With the help of hydro-dynamical simulations we verify that the relation between galaxy and cluster overdensity around voids remains linear. Hence, the void-centric density profiles of different tracers can be linked by a single multiplicative constant. This amounts to the same value as the relative linear bias between tracers for the largest voids in the sample. For voids of small sizes, which typically arise in higher density regions, this constant has a higher value, possibly showing an environmental dependence similar to that observed for the linear bias itself. We confirm our findings by analysing mocks and data obtained during the first year of observations by the Dark Energy Survey. As a side product, we present the first catalogue of three-dimensional voids extracted from a photometric survey with a controlled photo-z uncertainty. Our results will be relevant in forthcoming analyses that attempt to use voids as cosmological probes.

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The STRong lensing Insights into the Dark Energy Survey (STRIDES) 2016 follow-up campaign. II. New quasar lenses from double component fitting

We report upon the follow up of 34 candidate lensed quasars found in the Dark Energy Survey using NTT-EFOSC, Magellan-IMACS, KECK-ESI and SOAR-SAMI. These candidates were selected by a combination of double component fitting, morphological assessment and color analysis. Most systems followed up are indeed composed of at least one quasar image and 13 with two or more quasar images: two lenses, four projected binaries and seven Nearly Identical Quasar Pairs (NIQs). The two systems confirmed as genuine gravitationally lensed quasars are one quadruple at $z_s=1.713$ and one double at $z_s=1.515$. Lens modeling of these two systems reveals that both systems require very little contribution from the environment to reproduce the image configuration. Nevertheless, small flux anomalies can be observed in one of the images of the quad. Further observations of 9 inconclusive systems (including 7 NIQs) will allow to confirm (or not) their gravitational lens nature.

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Baryon Content in a Sample of 91 Galaxy Clusters Selected by the South Pole Telescope at 0.2 < z < 1.25

We estimate total mass ($M_{500}$), intracluster medium (ICM) mass ($M_{\mathrm{ICM}}$) and stellar mass ($M_{\star}$) in a Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (SZE) selected sample of 91 galaxy clusters with masses $M_{500}\gtrsim2.5\times10^{14}M_{\odot}$ and redshift $0.2 < z < 1.25$ from the 2500 deg$^2$ South Pole Telescope SPT-SZ survey. The total masses $M_{500}$ are estimated from the SZE observable, the ICM masses $M_{\mathrm{ICM}}$ are obtained from the analysis of $Chandra$ X-ray observations, and the stellar masses $M_{\star}$ are derived by fitting spectral energy distribution templates to Dark Energy Survey (DES) $griz$ optical photometry and $WISE$ or $Spitzer$ near-infrared photometry. We study trends in the stellar mass, the ICM mass, the total baryonic mass and the cold baryonic fraction with cluster mass and redshift. We find significant departures from self-similarity in the mass scaling for all quantities, while the redshift trends are all statistically consistent with zero, indicating that the baryon content of clusters at fixed mass has changed remarkably little over the past $\approx9$ Gyr. We compare our results to the mean baryon fraction (and the stellar mass fraction) in the field, finding that these values lie above (below) those in cluster virial regions in all but the most massive clusters at low redshift. Using a simple model of the matter assembly of clusters from infalling groups with lower masses and from infalling material from the low density environment or field surrounding the parent halos, we show that the measured mass trends without strong redshift trends in the stellar mass scaling relation could be explained by a mass and redshift dependent fractional contribution from field material. Similar analyses of the ICM and baryon mass scaling relations provide evidence for the so-called "missing baryons" outside cluster virial regions.

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Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Photometric Data Set for Cosmology

We describe the creation, content, and validation of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) internal year-one cosmology data set, Y1A1 GOLD, in support of upcoming cosmological analyses. The Y1A1 GOLD data set is assembled from multiple epochs of DES imaging and consists of calibrated photometric zeropoints, object catalogs, and ancillary data products - e.g., maps of survey depth and observing conditions, star-galaxy classification, and photometric redshift estimates - that are necessary for accurate cosmological analyses. The Y1A1 GOLD wide-area object catalog consists of ~137 million objects detected in coadded images covering ~1800 deg$^2$ in the DES grizY filters. The 10σ limiting magnitude for galaxies is g = 23.4, r = 23.2, i = 22.5, z = 21.8, and Y = 20.1. Photometric calibration of Y1A1 GOLD was performed by combining nightly zeropoint solutions with stellar-locus regression, and the absolute calibration accuracy is better than 2% over the survey area. DES Y1A1 GOLD is the largest photometric data set at the achieved depth to date, enabling precise measurements of cosmic acceleration at z $\lesssim$ 1.

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Modelling the Tucana III stream - a close passage with the LMC

We present results of the first dynamical stream fits to the recently discovered Tucana III stream. These fits assume a fixed Milky Way potential and give proper motion predictions, which can be tested with the upcoming Gaia Data Release 2. These fits reveal that Tucana III is on an eccentric orbit around the Milky Way and, more interestingly, that Tucana III passed within 15 kpc of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) approximately 75 Myr ago. Given this close passage, we fit the Tucana III stream in the combined presence of the Milky Way and the LMC. We find that the predicted proper motions depend on the assumed mass of the LMC and that the LMC can induce a substantial proper motion perpendicular to the stream track. A detection of this misalignment will directly probe the extent of the LMC's influence on our Galaxy, and has implications for nearly all methods which attempt to constraint the Milky Way potential. Such a measurement will be possible with the upcoming Gaia DR2, allowing for a measurement of the LMC's mass.

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Weak lensing magnification in the Dark Energy Survey Science Verification Data

In this paper the effect of weak lensing magnification on galaxy number counts is studied by cross-correlating the positions of two galaxy samples, separated by redshift, using data from the Dark Energy Survey Science Verification dataset. The analysis is carried out for two photometrically-selected galaxy samples, with mean photometric redshifts in the $0.2 < z < 0.4$ and $0.7 < z < 1.0$ ranges, in the riz bands. A signal is detected with a $3.5σ$ significance level in each of the bands tested, and is compatible with the magnification predicted by the $Λ$CDM model. After an extensive analysis, it cannot be attributed to any known systematic effect. The detection of the magnification signal is robust to estimated uncertainties in the outlier rate of the pho- tometric redshifts, but this will be an important issue for use of photometric redshifts in magnification mesurements from larger samples. In addition to the detection of the magnification signal, a method to select the sample with the maximum signal-to-noise is proposed and validated with data.

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UV-Luminous, Star-Forming Hosts of z~2 Reddened Quasars in the Dark Energy Survey

We present the first rest-frame UV population study of 17 heavily reddened, high-luminosity (E(B-V)$_{\rm{QSO}}\gtrsim$ 0.5; L$_{\rm{bol}}>$ 10$^{46}$ergs$^{-1}$) broad-line quasars at $1.5 < z < 2.7$. We combine the first year of deep, optical, ground-based observations from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) with the near infrared VISTA Hemisphere Survey (VHS) and UKIDSS Large Area Survey (ULAS) data, from which the reddened quasars were initially identified. We demonstrate that the significant dust reddening towards the quasar in our sample allows host galaxy emission to be detected at the rest-frame UV wavelengths probed by the DES photometry. By exploiting this reddening effect, we disentangle the quasar emission from that of the host galaxy via spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting. We find evidence for a relatively unobscured, star-forming host galaxy in at least ten quasars, with a further three quasars exhibiting emission consistent with either star formation or scattered light. From the rest-frame UV emission, we derive instantaneous, dust-corrected star formation rates (SFRs) in the range 25 < SFR$_{\rm{UV}}$ < 365 M$_{\odot}$yr$^{-1}$, with an average SFR$_{\rm{UV}}$ = 130 $\pm$ 95 M$_{\odot}$yr$^{-1}$. We find a broad correlation between SFR$_{\rm{UV}}$ and the bolometric quasar luminosity. Overall, our results show evidence for coeval star formation and black hole accretion occurring in luminous, reddened quasars at the peak epoch of galaxy formation.

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Studying the Ultraviolet Spectrum of the First Spectroscopically Confirmed Supernova at redshift two

We present observations of DES16C2nm, the first spectroscopically confirmed hydrogen-free superluminous supernova (SLSN-I) at redshift z~2. DES16C2nm was discovered by the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Supernova Program, with follow-up photometric data from the Hubble Space Telescope, Gemini, and the European Southern Observatory Very Large Telescope supplementing the DES data. Spectroscopic observations confirm DES16C2nm to be at z=1.998, and spectroscopically similar to Gaia16apd (a SLSN-I at z=0.102), with a peak absolute magnitude of U=-22.26$\pm$0.06. The high redshift of DES16C2nm provides a unique opportunity to study the ultraviolet (UV) properties of SLSNe-I. Combining DES16C2nm with ten similar events from the literature, we show that there exists a homogeneous class of SLSNe-I in the UV (~2500A), with peak luminosities in the (rest-frame) U band, and increasing absorption to shorter wavelengths. There is no evidence that the mean photometric and spectroscopic properties of SLSNe-I differ between low (z<1) and high redshift (z>1), but there is clear evidence of diversity in the spectrum at <2000A, possibly caused by the variations in temperature between events. No significant correlations are observed between spectral line velocities and photometric luminosity. Using these data, we estimate that SLSNe-I can be discovered to z=3.8 by DES. While SLSNe-I are typically identified from their blue observed colors at low redshift (z<1), we highlight that at z>2 these events appear optically red, peaking in the observer-frame z-band. Such characteristics are critical to identify these objects with future facilities such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, Euclid, and the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope, which should detect such SLSNe-I to z=3.5, 3.7, and 6.6, respectively.

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Evidence for Dynamically Driven Formation of the GW170817 Neutron Star Binary in NGC 4993

We present a study of NGC 4993, the host galaxy of the GW170817 gravitational wave event, the GRB170817A short gamma-ray burst (sGRB) and the AT2017gfo kilonova. We use Dark Energy Camera imaging, AAT spectra and publicly available data, relating our findings to binary neutron star (BNS) formation scenarios and merger delay timescales. NGC4993 is a nearby (40 Mpc) early-type galaxy, with $i$-band Sérsic index $n=4.0$ and low asymmetry ($A=0.04\pm 0.01$). These properties are unusual for sGRB hosts. However, NGC4993 presents shell-like structures and dust lanes indicative of a recent galaxy merger, with the optical transient located close to a shell. We constrain the star formation history (SFH) of the galaxy assuming that the galaxy merger produced a star formation burst, but find little to no on-going star formation in either spatially-resolved broadband SED or spectral fitting. We use the best-fit SFH to estimate the BNS merger rate in this type of galaxy, as $R_{NSM}^{gal}= 5.7^{+0.57}_{-3.3} \times 10^{-6} {\rm yr}^{-1}$. If star formation is the only considered BNS formation scenario, the expected number of BNS mergers from early-type galaxies detectable with LIGO during its first two observing seasons is $0.038^{+0.004}_{-0.022}$, as opposed to $\sim 0.5$ from all galaxy types. Hypothesizing that the binary system formed due to dynamical interactions during the galaxy merger, the subsequent time elapsed can constrain the delay time of the BNS coalescence. By using velocity dispersion estimates and the position of the shells, we find that the galaxy merger occurred $t_{\rm mer}\lesssim 200~{\rm Myr}$ prior to the BNS coalescence.

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DES meets Gaia: discovery of strongly lensed quasars from a multiplet search

We report the discovery, spectroscopic confirmation and first lens models of the first two, strongly lensed quasars from a combined search in WISE and Gaia over the DES footprint. The four-image lensWGD2038-4008 (r.a.=20:38:02.65, dec.=-40:08:14.64) has source- and lens-redshifts $z_{s}=0.777 \pm 0.001$ and $z_l = 0.230 \pm 0.002$ respectively. Its deflector has effective radius $R_{\rm eff} \approx 3.4^{\prime\prime}$, stellar mass $\log(M_{\star}/M_{\odot}) = 11.64^{+0.20}_{-0.43}$, and shows extended isophotal shape variation. Simple lens models yield Einstein radii $R_{\rm E}=(1.30\pm0.04)^{\prime\prime},$ axis ratio $q=0.75\pm0.1$ (compatible with that of the starlight) and considerable shear-ellipticity degeneracies. The two-image lensWGD2021-4115 (r.a.=20:21:39.45, dec.=--41:15:57.11) has $z_{s}=1.390\pm0.001$ and $z_l = 0.335 \pm 0.002$, and Einstein radius $R_{\rm E} = (1.1\pm0.1)^{\prime\prime},$ but higher-resolution imaging is needed to accurately separate the deflector and faint quasar image. We also show high-rank candidate doubles selected this way, some of which have been independently identified with different techniques, and discuss a DES+WISE quasar multiplet selection.

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Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: A Precise H0 Measurement from DES Y1, BAO, and D/H Data

We combine Dark Energy Survey Year 1 clustering and weak lensing data with Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) experiments to constrain the Hubble constant. Assuming a flat $Λ$CDM model with minimal neutrino mass ($\sum m_ν= 0.06$ eV) we find $H_0=67.2^{+1.2}_{-1.0}$ km/s/Mpc (68% CL). This result is completely independent of Hubble constant measurements based on the distance ladder, Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) anisotropies (both temperature and polarization), and strong lensing constraints. There are now five data sets that: a) have no shared observational systematics; and b) each constrain the Hubble constant with a few percent level precision. We compare these five independent measurements, and find that, as a set, the differences between them are significant at the $2.1σ$ level ($χ^2/dof=20.1/11$, probability to exceed=4%). This difference is low enough that we consider the data sets statistically consistent with each other. The best fit Hubble constant obtained by combining all five data sets is $H_0 = 69.1^{+0.4}_{-0.6}$ km/s/Mpc.

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Improved constraints on H0 from a combined analysis of gravitational-wave and electromagnetic emission from GW170817

The luminosity distance measurement of GW170817 derived from GW analysis in Abbott et al. 2017 (here, A17:H0) is highly correlated with the measured inclination of the NS-NS system. To improve the precision of the distance measurement, we attempt to constrain the inclination by modeling the broad-band X-ray-to-radio emission from GW170817, which is dominated by the interaction of the jet with the environment. We update our previous analysis and we consider the radio and X-ray data obtained at $t<40$ days since merger. We find that the afterglow emission from GW170817 is consistent with an off-axis relativistic jet with energy $10^{48}\,\rm{erg} 100$ days of the X-ray and radio emission will lead to tighter constraints.

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The Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Binary Neutron Star Merger LIGO/VIRGO GW170817. II. UV, Optical, and Near-IR Light Curves and Comparison to Kilonova Models

We present UV, optical, and NIR photometry of the first electromagnetic counterpart to a gravitational wave source from Advanced LIGO/Virgo, the binary neutron star merger GW170817. Our data set extends from the discovery of the optical counterpart at $0.47$ days to $18.5$ days post-merger, and includes observations with the Dark Energy Camera (DECam), Gemini-South/FLAMINGOS-2 (GS/F2), and the {\it Hubble Space Telescope} ({\it HST}). The spectral energy distribution (SED) inferred from this photometry at $0.6$ days is well described by a blackbody model with $T\approx 8300$ K, a radius of $R\approx 4.5\times 10^{14}$ cm (corresponding to an expansion velocity of $v\approx 0.3c$), and a bolometric luminosity of $L_{\rm bol}\approx 5\times10^{41}$ erg s$^{-1}$. At $1.5$ days we find a multi-component SED across the optical and NIR, and subsequently we observe rapid fading in the UV and blue optical bands and significant reddening of the optical/NIR colors. Modeling the entire data set we find that models with heating from radioactive decay of $^{56}$Ni, or those with only a single component of opacity from $r$-process elements, fail to capture the rapid optical decline and red optical/NIR colors. Instead, models with two components consistent with lanthanide-poor and lanthanide-rich ejecta provide a good fit to the data, the resulting "blue" component has $M_\mathrm{ej}^\mathrm{blue}\approx 0.01$ M$_\odot$ and $v_\mathrm{ej}^\mathrm{blue}\approx 0.3$c, and the "red" component has $M_\mathrm{ej}^\mathrm{red}\approx 0.04$ M$_\odot$ and $v_\mathrm{ej}^\mathrm{red}\approx 0.1$c. These ejecta masses are broadly consistent with the estimated $r$-process production rate required to explain the Milky Way $r$-process abundances, providing the first evidence that BNS mergers can be a dominant site of $r$-process enrichment.

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The Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Binary Neutron Star Merger LIGO/VIRGO GW170817. VIII. A Comparison to Cosmological Short-duration Gamma-ray Bursts

We present a comprehensive comparison of the properties of the radio through X-ray counterpart of GW170817 and the properties of short-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). For this effort, we utilize a sample of 36 short GRBs spanning a redshift range of $z \approx 0.12-2.6$ discovered over 2004-2017. We find that the counterpart to GW170817 has an isotropic-equivalent luminosity that is $\approx 3000$ times less than the median value of on-axis short GRB X-ray afterglows, and $\gtrsim10^{4}$ times less than that for detected short GRB radio afterglows. Moreover, the allowed jet energies and particle densities inferred from the radio and X-ray counterparts to GW170817 and on-axis short GRB afterglows are remarkably similar, suggesting that viewing angle effects are the dominant, and perhaps only, difference in their observed radio and X-ray behavior. From comparison to previous claimed kilonovae following short GRBs, we find that the optical and near-IR counterpart to GW170817 is comparatively under-luminous by a factor of $\approx 3-5$, indicating a range of kilonova luminosities and timescales. A comparison of the optical limits following short GRBs on $\lesssim 1$ day timescales also rules out a "blue" kilonova of comparable optical isotropic-equivalent luminosity in one previous short GRB. Finally, we investigate the host galaxy of GW170817, NGC4993, in the context of short GRB host galaxy stellar population properties. We find that NGC4993 is superlative in terms of its large luminosity, old stellar population age, and low star formation rate compared to previous short GRB hosts. Additional events within the Advanced LIGO/VIRGO volume will be crucial in delineating the properties of the host galaxies of NS-NS mergers, and connecting them to their cosmological counterparts.

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The Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Binary Neutron Star Merger LIGO/VIRGO GW170817. III. Optical and UV Spectra of a Blue Kilonova From Fast Polar Ejecta

We present optical and ultraviolet spectra of the first electromagnetic counterpart to a gravitational wave (GW) source, the binary neutron star merger GW170817. Spectra were obtained nightly between 1.5 and 9.5 days post-merger, using the SOAR and Magellan telescopes; the UV spectrum was obtained with the \textit{Hubble Space Telescope} at 5.5 days. Our data reveal a rapidly-fading blue component ($T\approx5500$ K at 1.5 days) that quickly reddens; spectra later than $\gtrsim 4.5$ days peak beyond the optical regime. The spectra are mostly featureless, although we identify a possible weak emission line at $\sim 7900$ Å at $t\lesssim 4.5$ days. The colours, rapid evolution and featureless spectrum are consistent with a "blue" kilonova from polar ejecta comprised mainly of light $r$-process nuclei with atomic mass number $A\lesssim 140$. This indicates a sight-line within $θ_{\rm obs}\lesssim 45^{\circ}$ of the orbital axis. Comparison to models suggests $\sim0.03$ M$_\odot$ of blue ejecta, with a velocity of $\sim 0.3c$. The required lanthanide fraction is $\sim 10^{-4}$, but this drops to $<10^{-5}$ in the outermost ejecta. The large velocities point to a dynamical origin, rather than a disk wind, for this blue component, suggesting that both binary constituents are neutron stars (as opposed to a binary consisting of a neutron star and a black hole). For dynamical ejecta, the high mass favors a small neutron star radius of $\lesssim 12$ km. This mass also supports the idea that neutron star mergers are a major contributor to $r$-process nucleosynthesis.

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The Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Binary Neutron Star Merger LIGO/VIRGO GW170817. VII. Properties of the Host Galaxy and Constraints on the Merger Timescale

We present the properties of NGC 4993, the host galaxy of GW170817, the first gravitational wave (GW) event from the merger of a binary neutron star (BNS) system and the first with an electromagnetic (EM) counterpart. We use both archival photometry and new optical/near-IR imaging and spectroscopy, together with stellar population synthesis models to infer the global properties of the host galaxy. We infer a star formation history peaked at $\gtrsim 10$ Gyr ago, with subsequent exponential decline leading to a low current star formation rate of 0.01 M$_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$, which we convert into a binary merger timescale probability distribution. We find a median merger timescale of $11.2^{+0.7}_{-1.4}$ Gyr, with a 90% confidence range of $6.8-13.6$ Gyr. This in turn indicates an initial binary separation of $\approx 4.5$ R$_{\odot}$, comparable to the inferred values for Galactic BNS systems. We also use new and archival $Hubble$ $Space$ $Telescope$ images to measure a projected offset of the optical counterpart of $2.1$ kpc (0.64$r_{e}$) from the center of NGC 4993 and to place a limit of $M_{r} \gtrsim -7.2$ mag on any pre-existing emission, which rules out the brighter half of the globular cluster luminosity function. Finally, the age and offset of the system indicates it experienced a modest natal kick with an upper limit of $\sim 200$ km s$^{-1}$. Future GW$-$EM observations of BNS mergers will enable measurement of their population delay time distribution, which will directly inform their viability as the dominant source of $r$-process enrichment in the Universe.

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The Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Binary Neutron Star Merger LIGO/VIRGO GW170817. V. Rising X-ray Emission from an Off-Axis Jet

We report the discovery of rising X-ray emission from the binary neutron star (BNS) merger event GW170817. This is the first detection of X-ray emission from a gravitational-wave source. Observations acquired with the Chandra X-ray Observatory (CXO) at t~2.3 days post merger reveal no significant emission, with L_x<=3.2x10^38 erg/s (isotropic-equivalent). Continued monitoring revealed the presence of an X-ray source that brightened with time, reaching L_x\sim 9x10^39 erg/s at ~15.1 days post merger. We interpret these findings in the context of isotropic and collimated relativistic outflows (both on- and off-axis). We find that the broad-band X-ray to radio observations are consistent with emission from a relativistic jet with kinetic energy E_k~10^49-10^50 erg, viewed off-axis with theta_obs~ 20-40 deg. Our models favor a circumbinary density n~ 0.0001-0.01 cm-3, depending on the value of the microphysical parameter epsilon_B=10^{-4}-10^{-2}. A central-engine origin of the X-ray emission is unlikely. Future X-ray observations at $t\gtrsim 100$ days, when the target will be observable again with the CXO, will provide additional constraints to solve the model degeneracies and test our predictions. Our inferences on theta_obs are testable with gravitational wave information on GW170817 from Advanced LIGO/Virgo on the binary inclination.

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