arXiv subjects

M. Tokumaru

Publications and source records attributed to M. Tokumaru.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

A new 3D solar wind speed and density model based on interplanetary scintillation

The solar wind (SW) is an outflow of the solar coronal plasma, expanding supersonically throughout the heliosphere. SW particles interact by charge exchange with interstellar neutral atoms and on one hand, they modify the distribution of this gas in interplanetary space, and on the other hand they are seed population for heliospheric pickup ions and energetic neutral atoms (ENAs). The heliolatitudinal profiles of the SW speed and density evolve during the cycle of solar activity. A model of evolution of the SW speed and density is needed to interpret observations of ENAs, pickup ions, the heliospheric backscatter glow, etc. We derive the Warsaw Heliospheric Ionization Model 3DSW (WawHelIon 3DSW) based on interplanetary scintillation (IPS) tomography maps of the SW speed. We take the IPS tomography data from 1985 until 2020, compiled by \citet{tokumaru_etal:21a}. We derive a novel statistical method of filtering these data against outliers, we present a flexible analytic formula for the latitudinal profiles of the SW speed based on Legendre polynomials of varying order with additional restraining conditions at the poles, fit this formula to the yearly filtered data, and calculate the yearly SW density profiles using the latitudinally invariant SW energy flux, observed in the ecliptic plane. Despite application of refined IPS data set, a more sophisticated data filtering method, and a more flexible analytic model, the present results mostly agree with those obtained previously, which demonstrates the robustness of IPS studies of the SW structure.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

On general correlation between 3D solar wind speed and density model and solar proxies

The solar wind (SW) is a supersonic outflow of plasma from the solar corona, with the latitudinal speed and density profiles varying with the solar activity. The SW protons charge exchange with the inflowing interstellar neutral atoms and create energetic neutral atoms (ENAs), which bring information on the physical state of the plasma within the boundary region of the heliosphere. The speed of the ENAs depends on their energies, and consequently observations at different energies provide information on different epochs backwards in time. Therefore, understanding the history of the evolution of the SW is important to understand this information. In this paper, we extend the work by \citet{porowski_etal:22a}, who provided the WawHelioIon 3DSW model of the time evolution of latitudinal profiles of the SW speed and density based on results of analysis of interplanetary scintillations (IPS). Based on results of Principal Component Analysis, we seek for correlation between selected solar proxies and the structure of the SW obtained from IPS and show that it is possible to reproduce the evolution of the SW structure during the past three solar cycles based on the proxies. With this, we extend the history of the evolution of the SW structure back to 1976, i.e., to the epoch when observations of the key proxies -- the inclination of the SW current sheet and the solar polar magnetic fields -- became available. We point out the potential of the use of the proxies for forecasting the structure of the SW into the future.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Validation of heliospheric modeling algorithms through pulsar observations I: Interplanetary scintillation-based tomography

Solar-wind 3-D reconstruction tomography based on interplanetary scintillation (IPS) studies provides fundamental information for space-weather forecasting models, and gives the possibility to determine heliospheric column densities. Here we compare the time series of Solar-wind column densities derived from long-term observations of pulsars, and the Solar-wind reconstruction provided by the UCSD IPS tomography. This work represents a completely independent comparison and validation of these techniques to provide this measurement, and it strengthens confidence in the use of both in space-weather analyses applications.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Large amplitude bidirectional anisotropy of cosmic-ray intensity observed with world-wide networks of ground-based neutron monitors and muon detectors in November, 2021

We analyze the cosmic-ray variations during a significant Forbush decrease observed with world-wide networks of ground-based neutron monitors and muon detectors during November 3-5, 2021. Utilizing the difference between primary cosmic-ray rigidities monitored by neutron monitors and muon detectors, we deduce the rigidity spectra of the cosmic-ray density (or omnidirectional intensity) and the first- and second-order anisotropies separately, for each hour of data. A clear two-step decrease is seen in the cosmic-ray density with the first $\sim2\%$ decrease after the interplanetary shock arrival followed by the second $\sim5\%$ decrease inside the magnetic flux rope (MFR) at 15 GV. Most strikingly, a large bidirectional streaming along the magnetic field is observed in the MFR with a peak amplitude of $\sim5\%$ at 15 GV which is comparable to the total density decrease inside the MFR. The bidirectional streaming could be explained by adiabatic deceleration and/or focusing in the expanding MFR, which have stronger effects for pitch angles near 90$^\circ$, or by selective entry of GCRs along a leg of the MFR. The peak anisotropy and density depression in the flux rope both decrease with increasing rigidity. The spectra vary dynamically indicating that the temporal variations of density and anisotropy appear different in neutron monitor and muon detector data.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Proton Penetration Efficiency over a High Altitude Observatory in Mexico

In association with a large solar flare on November 7, 2004, the solar neutron detectors located at Mt. Chacaltaya (5,250m) in Bolivia and Mt. Sierra Negra (4,600m) in Mexico recorded very interesting events. In order to explain these events, we have performed a calculation solving the equation of motion of anti-protons inside the magnetosphere. Based on these results, the Mt. Chacaltaya event may be explained by the detection of solar neutrons, while the Mt. Sierra Negra event may be explained by the first detection of very high energy solar neutron decay protons (SNDPs) around 6 GeV.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Comparison of solar wind speed estimates from nearly simultaneous IPS observations at 327 and 111 MHz

Results are presented of a comparison between solar wind speed estimates made using the time delays between 3 pairs of 327 MHz antennas at ISEE and estimates made by modeling the temporal power spectra observed with the 111 MHz BSA antenna at LPI. The observations were made for 6 years in the descending phase of solar cycle 24. More than 100 individual records were obtained for the compact source 3C48 and the extended and anisotropic source 3C298. The correlation between the daily speed estimates from 3C48 is 50%. Their annual averages agree within the error estimates and show the expected solar cycle variation. However the correlation between speeds from 3C298 is only 25% and their annual averages do not agree well. We investigate possible causes of this bias in the 3C298 estimated speeds.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

A Peculiar ICME Event in August 2018 Observed with the Global Muon Detector Network

We demonstrate that global observations of high-energy cosmic rays contribute to understanding unique characteristics of a large-scale magnetic flux rope causing a magnetic storm in August 2018. Following a weak interplanetary shock on 25 August 2018, a magnetic flux rope caused an unexpectedly large geomagnetic storm. It is likely that this event became geoeffective because the flux rope was accompanied by a corotating interaction region and compressed by high-speed solar wind following the flux rope. In fact, a Forbush decrease was observed in cosmic-ray data inside the flux rope as expected, and a significant cosmic-ray density increase exceeding the unmodulated level before the shock was also observed near the trailing edge of the flux rope. The cosmic-ray density increase can be interpreted in terms of the adiabatic heating of cosmic rays near the trailing edge of the flux rope, as the corotating interaction region prevents free expansion of the flux rope and results in the compression near the trailing edge. A northeast-directed spatial gradient in the cosmic-ray density was also derived during the cosmic-ray density increase, suggesting that the center of the heating near the trailing edge is located northeast of Earth. This is one of the best examples demonstrating that the observation of high-energy cosmic rays provides us with information that can only be derived from the cosmic ray measurements to observationally constrain the three-dimensional macroscopic picture of the interaction between coronal mass ejections and the ambient solar wind, which is essential for prediction of large magnetic storms.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2020

Sun-Heliosphere Observation-based Ionization Rates Model

The solar wind (SW) and the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation modulate fluxes of interstellar and heliospheric particles inside the heliosphere both in time and in space. Understanding this modulation is necessary to correctly interpret measurements of particles of interstellar origin inside the heliosphere. We present a revision of heliospheric ionization rates and provide the Sun-Heliosphere Observation-based Ionization Rates (SHOIR) model based on the currently available data. We calculate the total ionization rates using revised SW and solar EUV data. We study the in-ecliptic variation of the SW parameters, the latitudinal structure of the SW speed and density, and the reconstruction of the photoionization rates. The revision most affects the SW out of the ecliptic plane during solar maximum and the estimation of the photoionization rates, the latter due to a change of the reference data. The revised polar SW is slower and denser during the solar maximum of solar cycle (SC) 24. The current estimated total ionization rates are higher than the previous ones for H, O, and Ne, and lower for He. The changes for the in-ecliptic total ionization rates are less than 10% for H and He, up to 20% for O, and up to 35% for Ne. Additionally, the changes are not constant in time and vary as a function of time and latitude.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

Analysis of cosmic rays' atmospheric effects and their relationships to cutoff rigidity and zenith angle using Global Muon Detector Network data

Cosmic rays are charged particles whose flux observed at Earth shows temporal variations related to space weather phenomena and may be an important tool to study them. The cosmic ray intensity recorded with ground-based detectors also shows temporal variations arising from atmospheric variations. In the case of muon detectors, the main atmospheric effects are related to pressure and temperature changes. In this work, we analyze both effects using data recorded by the Global Muon Detector Network (GMDN), consisting of four multidirectional muon detectors at different locations, in the period between 2007 and 2016. For each GMDN directional channel, we obtain coefficients that describe the pressure and temperature effects. We then analyze how these coefficients can be related to the geomagnetic cutoff rigidity and zenith angle associated with cosmic-ray particles observed by each channel. In the pressure effect analysis, we found that the observed barometric coefficients show a very clear logarithmic correlation with the cutoff rigidity divided by the zenith angle cosine. On the other hand, the temperature coefficients show a good logarithmic correlation with the product of the cutoff and zenith angle cosine after adding a term proportional to the sine of geographical latitude of the observation site. This additional term implies that the temperature effect measured in the northern hemisphere detectors is stronger than that observed in the southern hemisphere. The physical origin of this term and of the good correlations found in this analysis should be studied in detail in future works.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2018

Cosmic ray short burst observed with the Global Muon Detector Network (GMDN) on June 22, 2015

We analyze the short cosmic ray intensity increase ("cosmic ray burst": CRB) on June 22, 2015 utilizing a global network of muon detectors and derive the global anisotropy of cosmic ray intensity and the density (i.e. the omnidirectional intensity) with 10-minute time resolution. We find that the CRB was caused by a local density maximum and an enhanced anisotropy of cosmic rays both of which appeared in association with Earth's crossing of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). This enhanced anisotropy was normal to the HCS and consistent with a diamagnetic drift arising from the spatial gradient of cosmic ray density, which indicates that cosmic rays were drifting along the HCS from the north of Earth. We also find a significant anisotropy along the HCS, lasting a few hours after the HCS crossing, indicating that cosmic rays penetrated into the inner heliosphere along the HCS. Based on the latest geomagnetic field model, we quantitatively evaluate the reduction of the geomagnetic cut-off rigidity and the variation of the asymptotic viewing direction of cosmic rays due to a major geomagnetic storm which occurred during the CRB and conclude that the CRB is not caused by the geomagnetic storm, but by a rapid change in the cosmic ray anisotropy and density outside the magnetosphere.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2017

Interplanetary Scintillation with the Murchison Widefield Array I: A sub-arcsecond Survey over 900 square degrees at 79 and 158 MHz

We present the first dedicated observations of Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) with the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA). We have developed a synthesis imaging technique, tailored to the properties of modern "large-N" low-frequency radio telescopes. This allows us to image the variability on IPS timescales across 900 square degrees simultaneously. We show that for our observations, a sampling rate of just 2Hz is sufficient to resolve the IPS signature of most sources. We develop tests to ensure that IPS variability is separated from ionospheric or instrumental variability. We validate our results by comparison with existing catalogues of IPS sources, and near-contemporaneous observations by other IPS facilities. Using just five minutes of data, we produce catalogues at both 79MHz and 158MHz, each containing over 350 scintillating sources. At the field centre we detect approximately one scintillating source per square degree, with a minimum scintillating flux density at 158MHz of 110mJy, corresponding to a compact flux density of approximately 400mJy. Each of these sources is a known radio source, however only a minority were previously known to contain sub-arcsecond components. We discuss our findings and the prospects they hold for future astrophysical and heliospheric studies.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2017

Seven Years of Imaging the Global Heliosphere with IBEX

The Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) has now operated in space for 7 years and returned nearly continuous observations that have led to scientific discoveries and reshaped our entire understanding of the outer heliosphere and its interaction with the local interstellar medium. Here we extend prior work, adding the 2014-2015 data for the first time, and examine, validate, initially analyze, and provide a complete 7-year set of Energetic Neutral Atom (ENA) observations from ~0.1 to 6 keV. The data, maps, and documentation provided here represent the 10th major release of IBEX data and include improvements to various prior corrections to provide the citable reference for the current version of IBEX data. We are now able to study time variations in the outer heliosphere and interstellar interaction over more than half a solar cycle. We find that the Ribbon has evolved differently than the globally distributed flux (GDF), with a leveling off and partial recovery of ENAs from the GDF, owing to solar wind output flattening and recovery. The Ribbon has now also lost its latitudinal ordering, which reflects the breakdown of solar minimum solar wind conditions and exhibits a greater time delay than for the surrounding GDF. Together, the IBEX observations strongly support a secondary ENA source for the Ribbon, and we suggest that this be adopted as the nominal explanation of the Ribbon going forward.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2016

Average spatial distribution of cosmic rays behind the interplanetary shock -Global Muon Detector Network observations-

We analyze the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) density and its spatial gradient in Forbush Decreases (FDs) observed with the Global Muon Detector Network (GMDN) and neutron monitors (NMs). By superposing the GCR density and density gradient observed in FDs following 45 interplanetary shocks (IP-shocks), each associated with an identified eruption on the sun, we infer the average spatial distribution of GCRs behind IP-shocks. We find two distinct modulations of GCR density in FDs, one in the magnetic sheath and the other in the coronal mass ejection (CME) behind the sheath. The density modulation in the sheath is dominant in the western flank of the shock, while the modulation in the CME ejecta stands out in the eastern flank. This east-west asymmetry is more prominent in GMDN data responding to $\sim$ 60 GV GCRs than in NM data responding to $\sim$ 10 GV GCRs, because of softer rigidity spectrum of the modulation in the CME ejecta than in the sheath. The GSE-y component of the density gradient, $G_y$ shows a negative (positive) enhancement in FDs caused by the eastern (western) eruptions, while $G_z$ shows a negative (positive) enhancement in FDs by the northern (southern) eruptions. This implies the GCR density minimum being located behind the central flank of IP-shock and propagating radially outward from location of the solar eruption. We also confirmed the average $G_z$ changing its sign above and below the heliospheric current sheet, in accord with the prediction of the drift model for the large-scale GCR transport in the heliosphere.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

A Prolonged Southward IMF-Bz Event of May 02--04, 1998: Solar, Interplanetary Causes and Geomagnetic Consequences

A detailed investigation was carried out to understand a prolonged (~44 hours) weakly southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF-Bz) condition during May 02--04, 1998. In-situ observations, during the period, showed the passage of an expanding magnetic cloud embedded in an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME), followed up by a shock and an interplanetary discontinuity driven by another ICME. It is the arrival of the ICMEs and the upfront shocks that cause the prolonged southward IMF-Bz condition. The magnetic configuration of the source regions of the IMF associated with the ICME interval were also examined, which showed open magnetic field structures, emanating from a small active region on the north of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). The structures remained constantly to the north of the HCS, both on April 29 and May 01, suggesting no change in their polarity. The draping of these outward directed radial field lines around the propagating CMEs in the shocked plasma explained the observed polarity changes of the IMF-Bz at 1 AU. In addition, multiple enhancements were also detected in the geomagnetic field variations, which showed a distinct one-to-one correspondence with the density pulses observed at 1 AU, during 0700--1700 UT on May 03. The spectral analysis of both the variations showed the same discrete frequencies of 0.48, 0.65 and 0.75 mHz, demonstrating that the solar wind density enhancements can cause detectable global geomagnetic disturbances. The observations, thus, provide a deeper insight into the possible causes and geomagnetic consequences of a prolonged weakly southward IMF-Bz condition.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

A Twenty Year Decline in Solar Photospheric Magnetic Fields: Inner-Heliospheric Signatures and Possible Implications?

We report observations of a steady 20 year decline of solar photospheric fields at latitudes $\geq$45${^{o}}$ starting from $\sim$1995. This prolonged and continuing decline, combined with the fact that Cycle 24 is already past its peak, implies that magnetic fields are likely to continue to decline until $\sim$2020, the expected minimum of the ongoing solar Cycle 24. In addition, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations of the inner heliosphere for the period 1983--2013 and in the distance range 0.2--0.8 AU, have also shown a similar and steady decline in solar wind micro-turbulence levels, in sync with the declining photospheric fields. Using the correlation between the polar field and heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) at solar minimum, we have estimated the value of the HMF in 2020 to be 3.9 ($\pm$0.6) and a floor value of the HMF of $\sim$3.2 ($\pm$0.4) nT. Given this floor value for the HMF, our analysis suggests that the estimated peak sunspot number for solar Cycle 25 is likely to be $\sim$ 62 ($\pm$12).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

A study of density modulation index in the inner heliospheric solar wind during solar cycle 23

The ratio of the rms electron density fluctuations to the background density in the solar wind (density modulation index, $ε_{N} \equiv Δ{N}/N$) is of vital importance in understanding several problems in heliospheric physics related to solar wind turbulence. In this paper, we have investigated the behavior of $ε_{N}$ in the inner-heliosphere from 0.26 to 0.82 AU. The density fluctuations $Δ{N}$ have been deduced using extensive ground-based observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) at 327 MHz, which probe spatial scales of a few hundred km. The background densities ($N$) have been derived using near-Earth observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer ($\it{ACE}$). Our analysis reveals that $0.001 \lesssim ε_{N} \lesssim 0.02$ and does not vary appreciably with heliocentric distance. We also find that $ε_{N}$ declines by 8% from 1998 to 2008. We discuss the impact of these findings on problems ranging from our understanding of Forbush decreases to the behavior of the solar wind dynamic pressure over the recent peculiar solar minimum at the end of cycle 23..

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Kinematic Properties of Slow ICMEs and an Interpretation of a Modified Drag Equation for Fast and Moderate ICMEs

We report kinematic properties of slow interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) identified by SOHO/LASCO, interplanetary scintillation, and in-situ observations, and propose a modified equation for the ICME motion. We identify seven ICMEs between 2010 and 2011, and examine them with 39 events reported in our previous work. We examine 15 fast (V_SOHO - V_bg > 500 km/s), 25 moderate (0 km/s <= V_SOHO - V_bg <= 500 km/s), and 6 slow (V_SOHO - V_bg < 0 km/s) ICMEs, where V_SOHO and V_bg are the initial speed of ICMEs and the speed of the background solar wind, respectively. For slow ICMEs, we found the following results: i) They accelerate toward the speed of the background solar wind during their propagation, and reach their final speed by 0.34 (+-) 0.03 AU. ii) The acceleration ends when they reach 479 (+-) 126 km/s; this is close to the typical speed of the solar wind during the period of this study. iii) When k_1 and k_2 are assumed to be constants, a quadratic equation for the acceleration a = -k_2(V - V_bg)|V - V_bg| is more appropriate than a linear one a = -k_1(V - V_bg), where V is the propagation speed of ICMEs, while the latter gives a smaller chi-square value than the former. For the motion of the fast and moderate ICMEs, we found a modified drag equation. From the viewpoint of fluid dynamics, we interpret this equation as indicating that ICMEs with 0 km/s <= V - V_bg <= 2300 km/s are controlled mainly by the hydrodynamic Stokes drag force, while the aerodynamic drag force is a predominant factor for the propagation of ICME with V - V_bg > 2300 km/s.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2012

Heliolatitude and time variations of solar wind structure from in situ measurements and interplanetary scintillation observations

The 3D structure of solar wind and its evolution in time is needed for heliospheric modeling and interpretation of energetic neutral atoms observations. We present a model to retrieve the solar wind structure in heliolatitude and time using all available and complementary data sources. We determine the heliolatitude structure of solar wind speed on a yearly time grid over the past 1.5 solar cycles based on remote-sensing observations of interplanetary scintillations, in situ out-of-ecliptic measurements from Ulysses, and in situ in-ecliptic measurements from the OMNI-2 database. Since the in situ information on the solar wind density structure out of ecliptic is not available apart from the Ulysses data, we derive correlation formulae between solar wind speed and density and use the information on the solar wind speed from interplanetary scintillation observations to retrieve the 3D structure of solar wind density. With the variations of solar wind density and speed in time and heliolatitude available we calculate variations in solar wind flux, dynamic pressure and charge exchange rate in the approximation of stationary H atoms.

astro-ph.SR↗