arXiv subjects

M. Vallisneri

Publications and source records attributed to M. Vallisneri.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

PKS~J0805$-$0111: A Second Owens Valley Radio Observatory Blazar Showing Highly Significant Sinusoidal Radio Variability -- The Tip of the Iceberg

Owens Valley Radio Observatory (OVRO) observations of supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) candidate PKS~2131$-$021 revealed, for the first time, six likely characteristics of the phenomenology exhibited by SMBHB in blazars, of which the most unexpected and critical is sinusoidal flux density variations. We have now identified a second blazar, PKS~J0805$-$0111, showing significant sinusoidal variations, with an observed period that translates to $1.422 \pm 0.005$ yr in the rest frame of the $z = 1.388$ object. We generate $10^6$ simulated light curves to reproduce the radio variability characteristics of PKS~J0805$-$0111, and show that the global probability, considering the \textit{look-elsewhere effect}, indicates that the observed periodicity can be attributed to the red noise tail of the power spectral density, with a $p_0$ value of $7.8 \times 10^{-5}$ (i.e. 3.78$\sigma$). PKS J0805$-$0111 displays all six characteristics observed in PKS 2131$-$021. Taking into account the well-defined OVRO sample size, the false positive probability $\sim 0.22$, but the rare behavior makes this a strong SMBHB candidate. The discovery of a second SMBHB candidate exhibiting these rare characteristics reveals that PKS~2131$-$021 is not a unique, isolated case. With these two strong cases we are clearly seeing only the tip of the iceberg. We estimate that the number of SMBHB candidates amongst blazars $\sim$ 1 in 100.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

PKS 2131-021 -- Discovery of Strong Coherent Sinusoidal Variations from Radio to Optical Frequencies: Compelling Evidence for a Blazar Supermassive Black Hole Binary

Haystack and Owens Valley Radio Observatory (OVRO) observations recently revealed strong, intermittent, sinusoidal total flux-density variations that maintained coherence between 1975 and 2021 in the blazar PKS 2131$-$021 ($z=1.283$). This was interpreted as possible evidence of a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB). Extended observations through 2023 show coherence over 47.9 years, with an observed period $P_\textrm{15 GHz}=(1739.8 \pm 17.4)$ days}. We reject, with $p$-value = $2.09 \times 10^{-7}$, the hypothesis that the variations are due to random fluctuations in the red noise tail of the power spectral density. There is clearly a physical phenomenon in PKS 2131$-$021 producing coherent sinusoidal flux density variations. We find the coherent sinusoidal intensity variations extend from below 2.7 GHz to optical frequencies, from which we derive an observed period $P_\textrm{optical}=(1764 \pm 36)$ days. Across this broad frequency range there is a smoothly-varying monotonic phase shift in the sinusoidal variations with frequency. Hints of periodic variations are also observed at $\gamma$-ray energies. The importance of well-vetted SMBHB candidates to searches for gravitational waves is pointed out. We estimate the fraction of blazars that are SMBHB candidates to be > 1 in 100. Thus monitoring programs covering tens of thousands of blazars could discover hundreds of SMBHB candidates.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Searching for continuous Gravitational Waves in the second data release of the International Pulsar Timing Array

The International Pulsar Timing Array 2nd data release is the combination of datasets from worldwide collaborations. In this study, we search for continuous waves: gravitational wave signals produced by individual supermassive black hole binaries in the local universe. We consider binaries on circular orbits and neglect the evolution of orbital frequency over the observational span. We find no evidence for such signals and set sky averaged 95% upper limits on their amplitude h 95 . The most sensitive frequency is 10nHz with h 95 = 9.1 10-15 . We achieved the best upper limit to date at low and high frequencies of the PTA band thanks to improved effective cadence of observations. In our analysis, we have taken into account the recently discovered common red noise process, which has an impact at low frequencies. We also find that the peculiar noise features present in some pulsars data must be taken into account to reduce the false alarm. We show that using custom noise models is essential in searching for continuous gravitational wave signals and setting the upper limit.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

The Unanticipated Phenomenology of the Blazar PKS~2131$-$021: A Unique Super-Massive Black Hole Binary Candidate

Most large galaxies host supermassive black holes in their nuclei and are subject to mergers, which can produce a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB), and hence periodic signatures due to orbital motion. We report unique periodic radio flux density variations in the blazar PKS~2131$-$021, which strongly suggest an SMBHB with an orbital separation of $\sim 0.001-0.01$ pc. Our 45.1-year radio light curve shows two epochs of strong sinusoidal variation with the same period and phase to within $<2\%$ and $\sim 10\%$, respectively, straddling a 20-year period when this variation was absent. Our simulated light curves accurately reproduce the ``red noise'' of this object, and Lomb-Scargle, weighted wavelet Z-transform, and least-squares sine wave analyses demonstrate conclusively, at the $4.6σ$ significance level, that the periodicity in this object is not due to random fluctuations in flux density. The observed period translates to $2.082\pm 0.003$ years in the rest frame at the $z=1.285$ redshift of PKS~2131$-$021. The periodic variation in PKS~2131$-$021 is remarkably sinusoidal. We present a model in which orbital motion, combined with the strong Doppler boosting of the approaching relativistic jet, produces a sine-wave modulation in the flux density which easily fits the observations. Given the rapidly-developing field of gravitational wave experiments with pulsar timing arrays, closer counterparts to PKS~2131$-$021 and searches using the techniques we have developed are strongly motivated. These results constitute a compelling demonstration that the phenomenology, not the theory, must provide the lead in this field.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Modeling the uncertainties of solar-system ephemerides for robust gravitational-wave searches with pulsar timing arrays

The regularity of pulsar emissions becomes apparent once we reference the pulses' times of arrivals to the inertial rest frame of the solar system. It follows that errors in the determination of Earth's position with respect to the solar-system barycenter can appear as a time-correlated bias in pulsar-timing residual time series, affecting the searches for low-frequency gravitational waves performed with pulsar timing arrays. Indeed, recent array datasets yield different gravitational-wave background upper limits and detection statistics when analyzed with different solar-system ephemerides. Crucially, the ephemerides do not generally provide usable error representations. In this article we describe the motivation, construction, and application of a physical model of solar-system ephemeris uncertainties, which focuses on the degrees of freedom (Jupiter's orbital elements) most relevant to gravitational-wave searches with pulsar timing arrays. This model, BayesEphem, was used to derive ephemeris-robust results in NANOGrav's 11-yr stochastic-background search, and it provides a foundation for future searches by NANOGrav and other consortia. The analysis and simulations reported here suggest that ephemeris modeling reduces the gravitational-wave sensitivity of the 11-yr dataset; and that this degeneracy will vanish with improved ephemerides and with the longer pulsar timing datasets that will become available in the near future.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

The NANOGrav 11-Year Data Set: Limits on Gravitational Wave Memory

The mergers of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) promise to be incredible sources of gravitational waves (GWs). While the oscillatory part of the merger gravitational waveform will be outside the frequency sensitivity range of pulsar timing arrays (PTAs), the non-oscillatory GW memory effect is detectable. Further, any burst of gravitational waves will produce GW memory, making memory a useful probe of unmodeled exotic sources and new physics. We searched the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) 11-year data set for GW memory. This dataset is sensitive to very low frequency GWs of $\sim3$ to $400$ nHz (periods of $\sim11$ yr $-$ $1$ mon). Finding no evidence for GWs, we placed limits on the strain amplitude of GW memory events during the observation period. We then used the strain upper limits to place limits on the rate of GW memory causing events. At a strain of $2.5\times10^{-14}$, corresponding to the median upper limit as a function of source sky position, we set a limit on the rate of GW memory events at $<0.4$ yr$^{-1}$. That strain corresponds to a SMBHB merger with reduced mass of $ηM \sim 2\times10^{10}M_\odot$ and inclination of $ι=π/3$ at a distance of 1 Gpc. As a test of our analysis, we analyzed the NANOGrav 9-year data set as well. This analysis found an anomolous signal, which does not appear in the 11-year data set. This signal is not a GW, and its origin remains unknown.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

The NANOGrav 11-Year Data Set: Evolution of Gravitational Wave Background Statistics

An ensemble of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries should produce a stochastic background of very low frequency gravitational waves. This stochastic background is predicted to be a power law, with a spectral index of -2/3, and it should be detectable by a network of precisely timed millisecond pulsars, widely distributed on the sky. This paper reports a new "time slicing" analysis of the 11-year data release from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) using 34 millisecond pulsars. Methods to flag potential "false positive" signatures are developed, including techniques to identify responsible pulsars. Mitigation strategies are then presented. We demonstrate how an incorrect noise model can lead to spurious signals, and show how independently modeling noise across 30 Fourier components, spanning NANOGrav's frequency range, effectively diagnoses and absorbs the excess power in gravitational-wave searches. This results in a nominal, and expected, progression of our gravitational-wave statistics. Additionally we show that the first interstellar medium event in PSR J1713+0747 pollutes the common red noise process with low-spectral index noise, and use a tailored noise model to remove these effects.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

The International Pulsar Timing Array: Second data release

In this paper, we describe the International Pulsar Timing Array second data release, which includes recent pulsar timing data obtained by three regional consortia: the European Pulsar Timing Array, the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves, and the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array. We analyse and where possible combine high-precision timing data for 65 millisecond pulsars which are regularly observed by these groups. A basic noise analysis, including the processes which are both correlated and uncorrelated in time, provides noise models and timing ephemerides for the pulsars. We find that the timing precisions of pulsars are generally improved compared to the previous data release, mainly due to the addition of new data in the combination. The main purpose of this work is to create the most up-to-date IPTA data release. These data are publicly available for searches for low-frequency gravitational waves and other pulsar science.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

The NANOGrav 11-Year Data Set: Limits on Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Observations indicate that nearly all galaxies contain supermassive black holes (SMBHs) at their centers. When galaxies merge, their component black holes form SMBH binaries (SMBHBs), which emit low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) that can be detected by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). We have searched the recently-released North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) 11-year data set for GWs from individual SMBHBs in circular orbits. As we did not find strong evidence for GWs in our data, we placed 95\% upper limits on the strength of GWs from such sources as a function of GW frequency and sky location. We placed a sky-averaged upper limit on the GW strain of $h_0 < 7.3(3) \times 10^{-15}$ at $f_\mathrm{gw}= 8$ nHz. We also developed a technique to determine the significance of a particular signal in each pulsar using ``dropout' parameters as a way of identifying spurious signals in measurements from individual pulsars. We used our upper limits on the GW strain to place lower limits on the distances to individual SMBHBs. At the most-sensitive sky location, we ruled out SMBHBs emitting GWs with $f_\mathrm{gw}= 8$ nHz within 120 Mpc for $\mathcal{M} = 10^9 \, M_\odot$, and within 5.5 Gpc for $\mathcal{M} = 10^{10} \, M_\odot$. We also determined that there are no SMBHBs with $\mathcal{M} > 1.6 \times 10^9 \, M_\odot$ emitting GWs in the Virgo Cluster. Finally, we estimated the number of potentially detectable sources given our current strain upper limits based on galaxies in Two Micron All-Sky Survey (2MASS) and merger rates from the Illustris cosmological simulation project. Only 34 out of 75,000 realizations of the local Universe contained a detectable source, from which we concluded it was unsurprising that we did not detect any individual sources given our current sensitivity to GWs.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2018

The NANOGrav 11-year Data Set: Pulsar-timing Constraints On The Stochastic Gravitational-wave Background

We search for an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) in the newly released $11$-year dataset from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). While we find no significant evidence for a GWB, we place constraints on a GWB from a population of supermassive black-hole binaries, cosmic strings, and a primordial GWB. For the first time, we find that the GWB upper limits and detection statistics are sensitive to the Solar System ephemeris (SSE) model used, and that SSE errors can mimic a GWB signal. We developed an approach that bridges systematic SSE differences, producing the first PTA constraints that are robust against SSE uncertainties. We thus place a $95\%$ upper limit on the GW strain amplitude of $A_\mathrm{GWB}<1.45\times 10^{-15}$ at a frequency of $f=1$ yr$^{-1}$ for a fiducial $f^{-2/3}$ power-law spectrum, and with inter-pulsar correlations modeled. This is a factor of $\sim 2$ improvement over the NANOGrav $9$-year limit, calculated using the same procedure. Previous PTA upper limits on the GWB will need revision in light of SSE systematic uncertainties. We use our constraints to characterize the combined influence on the GWB of the stellar mass-density in galactic cores, the eccentricity of SMBH binaries, and SMBH--galactic-bulge scaling relationships. We constrain cosmic-string tension using recent simulations, yielding an SSE-marginalized $95\%$ upper limit on the cosmic string tension of $Gμ< 5.3\times 10^{-11}$---a factor of $\sim 2$ better than the published NANOGrav $9$-year constraints. Our SSE-marginalized $95\%$ upper limit on the energy density of a primordial GWB (for a radiation-dominated post-inflation Universe) is $Ω_\mathrm{GWB}(f)h^2<3.4\times10^{-10}$.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2018

Solar System Ephemerides, Pulsar Timing, Gravitational Waves, and Navigation

In-spiraling supermassive black holes should emit gravitational waves, which would produce characteristic distortions in the time of arrival residuals from millisecond pulsars. Multiple national and regional consortia have constructed pulsar timing arrays by precise timing of different sets of millisecond pulsars. An essential aspect of precision timing is the transfer of the times of arrival to a (quasi-)inertial frame, conventionally the solar system barycenter. The barycenter is determined from the knowledge of the planetary masses and orbits, which has been refined over the past 50 years by multiple spacecraft. Within the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav), uncertainties on the solar system barycenter are emerging as an important element of the NANOGrav noise budget. We describe what is known about the solar system barycenter, touch upon how uncertainties in it affect gravitational wave studies with pulsar timing arrays, and consider future trends in spacecraft navigation.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2016

Statistical Analyses for NANOGrav 5-year Timing Residuals

In pulsar timing, timing residuals are the differences between the observed times of arrival and the predictions from the timing model. A comprehensive timing model will produce featureless residuals, which are presumably composed of dominating noise and weak physical effects excluded from the timing model (e.g. gravitational waves). In order to apply the optimal statistical methods for detecting the weak gravitational wave signals, we need to know the statistical properties of the noise components in the residuals. In this paper we utilize a variety of non-parametric statistical tests to analyze the whiteness and Gaussianity of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) 5-year timing data which are obtained from the Arecibo Observatory and the Green Bank Telescope from 2005 to 2010 (Demorest et al. 2013). We find that most of the data are consistent with white noise; Many data deviate from Gaussianity at different levels, nevertheless, removing outliers in some pulsars will mitigate the deviations.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2016

Are we there yet? Time to detection of nanohertz gravitational waves based on pulsar-timing array limits

Decade-long timing observations of arrays of millisecond pulsars have placed highly constraining upper limits on the amplitude of the nanohertz gravitational-wave stochastic signal from the mergers of supermassive black-hole binaries ($\sim 10^{-15}$ strain at $f = 1/\mathrm{yr}$). These limits suggest that binary merger rates have been overestimated, or that environmental influences from nuclear gas or stars accelerate orbital decay, reducing the gravitational-wave signal at the lowest, most sensitive frequencies. This prompts the question whether nanohertz gravitational waves are likely to be detected in the near future. In this letter, we answer this question quantitatively using simple statistical estimates, deriving the range of true signal amplitudes that are compatible with current upper limits, and computing expected detection probabilities as a function of observation time. We conclude that small arrays consisting of the pulsars with the least timing noise, which yield the tightest upper limits, have discouraging prospects of making a detection in the next two decades. By contrast, we find large arrays are crucial to detection because the quadrupolar spatial correlations induced by gravitational waves can be well sampled by many pulsar pairs. Indeed, timing programs which monitor a large and expanding set of pulsars have an $\sim 80\%$ probability of detecting gravitational waves within the next ten years, under assumptions on merger rates and environmental influences ranging from optimistic to conservative. Even in the extreme case where $90\%$ of binaries stall before merger and environmental coupling effects diminish low-frequency gravitational-wave power, detection is delayed by at most a few years.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2016

From Spin Noise to Systematics: Stochastic Processes in the First International Pulsar Timing Array Data Release

We analyse the stochastic properties of the 49 pulsars that comprise the first International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA) data release. We use Bayesian methodology, performing model selection to determine the optimal description of the stochastic signals present in each pulsar. In addition to spin-noise and dispersion-measure (DM) variations, these models can include timing noise unique to a single observing system, or frequency band. We show the improved radio-frequency coverage and presence of overlapping data from different observing systems in the IPTA data set enables us to separate both system and band-dependent effects with much greater efficacy than in the individual PTA data sets. For example, we show that PSR J1643$-$1224 has, in addition to DM variations, significant band-dependent noise that is coherent between PTAs which we interpret as coming from time-variable scattering or refraction in the ionised interstellar medium. Failing to model these different contributions appropriately can dramatically alter the astrophysical interpretation of the stochastic signals observed in the residuals. In some cases, the spectral exponent of the spin noise signal can vary from 1.6 to 4 depending upon the model, which has direct implications for the long-term sensitivity of the pulsar to a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background. By using a more appropriate model, however, we can greatly improve a pulsar's sensitivity to GWs. For example, including system and band-dependent signals in the PSR J0437$-$4715 data set improves the upper limit on a fiducial GW background by $\sim 60\%$ compared to a model that includes DM variations and spin-noise only.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2016

The International Pulsar Timing Array: First Data Release

The highly stable spin of neutron stars can be exploited for a variety of (astro-)physical investigations. In particular arrays of pulsars with rotational periods of the order of milliseconds can be used to detect correlated signals such as those caused by gravitational waves. Three such "Pulsar Timing Arrays" (PTAs) have been set up around the world over the past decades and collectively form the "International" PTA (IPTA). In this paper, we describe the first joint analysis of the data from the three regional PTAs, i.e. of the first IPTA data set. We describe the available PTA data, the approach presently followed for its combination and suggest improvements for future PTA research. Particular attention is paid to subtle details (such as underestimation of measurement uncertainty and long-period noise) that have often been ignored but which become important in this unprecedentedly large and inhomogeneous data set. We identify and describe in detail several factors that complicate IPTA research and provide recommendations for future pulsar timing efforts. The first IPTA data release presented here (and available online) is used to demonstrate the IPTA's potential of improving upon gravitational-wave limits placed by individual PTAs by a factor of ~2 and provides a 2-sigma limit on the dimensionless amplitude of a stochastic GWB of 1.7x10^{-15} at a frequency of 1 yr^{-1}. This is 1.7 times less constraining than the limit placed by (Shannon et al. 2015), due mostly to the more recent, high-quality data they used.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2016

The NANOGrav Nine-year Data Set: Observations, Arrival Time Measurements, and Analysis of 37 Millisecond Pulsars

We present high-precision timing observations spanning up to nine years for 37 millisecond pulsars monitored with the Green Bank and Arecibo radio telescopes as part of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) project. We describe the observational and instrumental setups used to collect the data, and methodology applied for calculating pulse times of arrival; these include novel methods for measuring instrumental offsets and characterizing low signal-to-noise ratio timing results. The time of arrival data are fit to a physical timing model for each source, including terms that characterize time-variable dispersion measure and frequency-dependent pulse shape evolution. In conjunction with the timing model fit, we have performed a Bayesian analysis of a parameterized timing noise model for each source, and detect evidence for excess low-frequency, or "red," timing noise in 10 of the pulsars. For 5 of these cases this is likely due to interstellar medium propagation effects rather than intrisic spin variations. Subsequent papers in this series will present further analysis of this data set aimed at detecting or limiting the presence of nanohertz-frequency gravitational wave signals.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2015

NANOGrav Constraints on Gravitational Wave Bursts with Memory

Among efforts to detect gravitational radiation, pulsar timing arrays are uniquely poised to detect "memory" signatures, permanent perturbations in spacetime from highly energetic astrophysical events such as mergers of supermassive black hole binaries. The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) observes dozens of the most stable millisecond pulsars using the Arecibo and Green Bank radio telescopes in an effort to study, among other things, gravitational wave memory. We herein present the results of a search for gravitational wave bursts with memory (BWMs) using the first five years of NANOGrav observations. We develop original methods for dramatically speeding up searches for BWM signals. In the directions of the sky where our sensitivity to BWMs is best, we would detect mergers of binaries with reduced masses of $10^9$ $M_\odot$ out to distances of 30 Mpc; such massive mergers in the Virgo cluster would be marginally detectable. We find no evidence for BWMs. However, with our non-detection, we set upper limits on the rate at which BWMs of various amplitudes could have occurred during the time spanned by our data--e.g., BWMs with amplitudes greater than $10^{-13}$ must occur at a rate less than 1.5 yr$^{-1}$.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2014

NANOGrav Limits on Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries in Circular Orbits

The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) project currently observes 43 pulsars using the Green Bank and Arecibo radio telescopes. In this work we use a subset of 17 pulsars timed for a span of roughly five years (2005--2010). We analyze these data using standard pulsar timing models, with the addition of time-variable dispersion measure and frequency-variable pulse shape terms. Within the timing data, we perform a search for continuous gravitational waves from individual supermassive black hole binaries in circular orbits using robust frequentist and Bayesian techniques. We find that there is no evidence for the presence of a detectable continuous gravitational wave; however, we can use these data to place the most constraining upper limits to date on the strength of such gravitational waves. Using the full 17 pulsar dataset we place a 95% upper limit on the sky-averaged strain amplitude of $h_0\lesssim 3.8\times 10^{-14}$ at a frequency of 10 nHz. Furthermore, we place 95% \emph{all sky} lower limits on the luminosity distance to such gravitational wave sources finding that the $d_L \gtrsim 425$ Mpc for sources at a frequency of 10 nHz and chirp mass $10^{10}{\rm M}_{\odot}$. We find that for gravitational wave sources near our best timed pulsars in the sky, the sensitivity of the pulsar timing array is increased by a factor of $\sim$4 over the sky-averaged sensitivity. Finally we place limits on the coalescence rate of the most massive supermassive black hole binaries.

astro-ph.GA↗