arXiv subjects

Madhav Kumar

Publications and source records attributed to Madhav Kumar.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Evaluating for the long term: Learnings from industry

Online platforms prioritize long-term business outcomes, yet typical experiments are far too short to measure these outcomes directly. Our goal in this paper is to collect and share industry knowledge on how to make decisions from short-term experiments that are better aligned with long-term outcomes. Based on a daylong workshop with 26 experts from 15 online platforms and 4 universities, we formulate a series of propositions that reflect current industry knowledge. Participants largely agreed that reversals of sign from short-run to long-run treatment effects are rare, with reversals concentrating in specific cases such as treatments involving content quality signals, hyper-monetization, and pricing. Although the magnitude of treatment effects can shift over time, a "univariate autosurrogate", corresponding to the short-run treatment effect on the long-run metric of interest, is often hard to beat. A recurring theme was the importance of surrogates that are not only (or even primarily) unbiased for true long-run outcomes, but that improve decision-making. Thus, participants generally agreed that simple, interpretable surrogates were generally preferable to elaborate but hard-to-explain surrogate indices. Participants also agreed that, due to concerns about confounding and transportability, experimentally-learned surrogates are generally preferable to observationally-learned surrogates. However, the drawback is that learning good surrogates from experiments typically requires a large, representative portfolio of long-run experiments that few platforms possess. We conclude that there is no substitute for a well-run long-term experiment, whether for learning surrogates or validating them, and we highlight open challenges including evolving treatments, persistent treatments not fully mediated by short-term proxies, and mismatch between experimental samples and the target population.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Are Crypto Ecosystems (De)centralizing? A Framework for Longitudinal Analysis

Blockchain technology relies on decentralization to resist faults and attacks while operating without trusted intermediaries. Although industry experts have touted decentralization as central to their promise and disruptive potential, it is still unclear whether the crypto ecosystems built around blockchains are becoming more or less decentralized over time. As crypto plays an increasing role in facilitating economic transactions and peer-to-peer interactions, measuring their decentralization becomes even more essential. We thus propose a systematic framework for measuring the decentralization of crypto ecosystems over time and compare commonly used decentralization metrics. We applied this framework to seven prominent crypto ecosystems, across five distinct subsystems and across their lifetime for over 15 years. Our analysis revealed that while crypto has largely become more decentralized over time, recent trends show a shift toward centralization in the consensus layer, NFT marketplaces, and developers. Our framework and results inform researchers, policymakers, and practitioners about the design, regulation, and implementation of crypto ecosystems and provide a systematic, replicable foundation for future studies.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2025

Explaining Sustained Blockchain Decentralization with Quasi-Experiments: The Resource Flexibility of Consensus Mechanisms

Decentralization is a fundamental design element of the Web3 economy. Blockchains and distributed consensus mechanisms are touted as fault-tolerant, attack-resistant, and collusion-proof because they are decentralized. Recent analyses, however, find some blockchains are decentralized, others are centralized, and that there are trends towards both centralization and decentralization in the blockchain economy. Despite the importance and variability of decentralization across blockchains, we still know little about what enables or constrains blockchain decentralization. We hypothesize that the resource flexibility of consensus mechanisms is a key enabler of the sustained decentralization of blockchain networks. We test this hypothesis using three quasi-experimental shocks -- policy-related, infrastructure-related, and technical -- to resources used in consensus. We find strong suggestive evidence that the resource flexibility of consensus mechanisms enables sustained blockchain decentralization and discuss the implications for the design, regulation, and implementation of blockchains.

cs.NI↗

arXiv2025

NeoARCADE: Robust Calibration for Distance Estimation to Support Assistive Drones for the Visually Impaired

Autonomous navigation by drones using onboard sensors, combined with deep learning and computer vision algorithms, is impacting a number of domains. We examine the use of drones to autonomously follow and assist Visually Impaired People (VIPs) in navigating urban environments. Estimating the absolute distance between the drone and the VIP, and to nearby objects, is essential to design obstacle avoidance algorithms. Here, we present NeoARCADE (Neo), which uses depth maps over monocular video feeds, common in consumer drones, to estimate absolute distances to the VIP and obstacles. Neo proposes robust calibration technique based on depth score normalization and coefficient estimations to translate relative distances from depth map to absolute ones. It further develops a dynamic recalibration method that can adapt to changing scenarios. We also develop two baseline models, Regression and Geometric, and compare Neo with SOTA depth map approaches and the baselines. We provide detailed evaluations to validate their robustness and generalizability for distance estimation to VIPs and other obstacles in diverse and dynamic conditions, using datasets collected in a campus environment. Neo predicts distances to VIP with an error <30cm, and to different obstacles like cars and bicycles within a maximum error of 60cm, which are better than the baselines. Neo also clearly out-performs SOTA depth map methods, reporting errors up to 5.3-14.6x lower.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2020

Scalable bundling via dense product embeddings

Bundling, the practice of jointly selling two or more products at a discount, is a widely used strategy in industry and a well examined concept in academia. Historically, the focus has been on theoretical studies in the context of monopolistic firms and assumed product relationships, e.g., complementarity in usage. We develop a new machine-learning-driven methodology for designing bundles in a large-scale, cross-category retail setting. We leverage historical purchases and consideration sets created from clickstream data to generate dense continuous representations of products called embeddings. We then put minimal structure on these embeddings and develop heuristics for complementarity and substitutability among products. Subsequently, we use the heuristics to create multiple bundles for each product and test their performance using a field experiment with a large retailer. We combine the results from the experiment with product embeddings using a hierarchical model that maps bundle features to their purchase likelihood, as measured by the add-to-cart rate. We find that our embeddings-based heuristics are strong predictors of bundle success, robust across product categories, and generalize well to the retailer's entire assortment.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Nanomechanical resonators show higher order nonlinearity at room temperature

Most mechanical resonators are treated as simple linear oscillators. Nonlinearity in the resonance behavior of nanoelectromechanical systems (NEMS) has only lately attracted significant interest. Most recently, cubic-order nonlinearity has been used to explain anomalies in the resonance frequency behaviors in the frequency domain. Particularly, such nonlinearities were explained using cubic nonlinearity in the restoring force (Duffing nonlinearity) or damping (van der Pol nonlinearity). Understanding the limits of linear resonant behavior is particularly important in NEMS, as they are frequently studied for their potential in ultrasensitive sensing and detection, applications that most commonly assume a linear behavior to transduce motion into a detected signal. In this paper, we report that even at low excitation, cubic nonlinearity is insufficient to explain nonlinearity in graphene NEMS. Rather, we observe that higher order, in particular, the fifth order effects need to be considered even for systems at room temperature with modest quality factors. These are particularly important results that could determine the limits of linear detection in such systems and quite possibly present unconventional avenues for ultrasensitive detection paradigms using nonlinear dynamics. Such intriguing possibilities, however, hinge crucially on a superior understanding and exploitation of these inherent nonlinearities as opposed to modeling them as approximated linear or cubic systems.

cond-mat.mes-hall↗