arXiv subjects

Mads Christian Hansen

Publications and source records attributed to Mads Christian Hansen.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

The asymptotic tails of limit distributions of continuous time Markov chains

This paper investigates tail asymptotics of stationary distributions and quasi-stationary distributions (QSDs) of continuous-time Markov chains on subsets of the non-negative integers. Based on the so-called flux-balance equation, we establish identities for stationary measures and QSDs, which we use to derive tail asymptotics. In particular, continuous-time Markov chains with asymptotic power law transition rates, tail asymptotics for stationary distributions and QSDs are classified into three types using three easily computable parameters: (i) super-exponential distributions, (ii) exponential-tailed distributions, and (iii) sub-exponential distributions. Our approach to establish tail asymptotics of stationary distributions is different from the classical semimartingale approach, and we do not impose ergodicity nor moment bound conditions. In particular, the results also hold for explosive Markov chains, for which multiple stationary distributions may exist. Furthermore, our results on tail asymptotics of QSDs seem new. We apply our results to biochemical reaction networks, a general single-cell stochastic gene expression model, an extended class of branching processes, and stochastic population processes with bursty reproduction, none of which are birth-death processes. The approach together with the identities easily extends to discrete time Markov chains.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Structural classification of continuous time Markov chains with applications

This paper is motivated by examples from stochastic reaction network theory. The $Q$-matrix of a stochastic reaction network can be derived from the reaction graph, an edge-labelled directed graph encoding the jump vectors of an associated continuous time Markov chain on the invariant space $\mathbb{N}^d_0$. An open question is how to decompose the space $\mathbb{N}^d_0$ into neutral, trapping, and escaping states, and open and closed communicating classes, and whether this can be done from the reaction graph alone. Such general continuous time Markov chains can be understood as natural generalizations of birth-death processes, incorporating multiple different birth and death mechanisms. We characterize the structure of $\mathbb{N}^d_0$ imposed by a general $Q$-matrix generating continuous time Markov chains with values in $\mathbb{N}^d_0$, in terms of the set of jump vectors and their corresponding transition rate functions. Thus the setting is not limited to stochastic reaction networks. Furthermore, we define structural equivalence of two $Q$-matrices, and provide sufficient conditions for structural equivalence. Examples are abundant in applications. We apply the results to stochastic reaction networks, a Lotka-Volterra model in ecology, the EnvZ-OmpR system in systems biology, and a class of extended branching processes, none of which are birth-death processes.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Full classification of dynamics for one-dimensional continuous time Markov chains with polynomial transition rates

This paper provides full classification of dynamics for continuous time Markov chains (CTMCs) on the non-negative integers with polynomial transition rate functions. Such stochastic processes are abundant in applications, in particular in biology. More precisely, for CTMCs of bounded jumps, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions in terms of calculable parameters for explosivity, recurrence vs transience, certain absorption, positive recurrence vs null recurrence, and implosivity. Simple sufficient conditions for exponential ergodicity of stationary distributions and quasi-stationary distributions as well as existence and non-existence of moments of hitting times are also obtained. Similar simple sufficient conditions for the aforementioned dynamics together with their opposite dynamics are established for CTMCs with unbounded jumps. The results generalize respective criteria for birth-death processes by Karlin and McGregor in the 1960s. Finally, we apply our results to stochastic reaction networks, an extended class of branching processes, a general bursty single-cell stochastic gene expression model, and population processes, none of which are birth-death processes. The approach is based on a mixture of Lyapunov-Foster type results, semimartingale approach, as well as estimates of stationary measures.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Dynamics of continuous time Markov chains with applications

This paper contributes an in-depth study of properties of continuous time Markov chains (CTMCs) on non-negative integer lattices $\N_0^d$, with particular interest in one-dimensional CTMCs with polynomial transitions rates. Such stochastic processes are abundant in applications, in particular in biology. We characterize the structure of the state space of general CTMCs on $\N_0^d$ in terms of the set of jump vectors and their corresponding transition rate functions. For CTMCs on $\N_0$ with polynomial transition rate functions, we provide threshold criteria in terms of easily computable parameters for various dynamical properties such as explosivity, recurrence, transience, certain absorption, positive/null recurrence, implosivity, and existence and non-existence of moments of hitting times. In particular, simple sufficient conditions for exponential ergodicity of stationary distributions and quasi-stationary distributions are obtained, and the few gap cases are well-illustrated by examples. Subtle differences in conditions for different dynamical properties are revealed in terms of examples. Finally, we apply our results to stochastic reaction networks, an extended class of branching processes, a general bursty single-cell stochastic gene expression model, and population processes which are not birth-death processes.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Existence of a Unique Quasi-stationary Distribution for Stochastic Reaction Networks

In the setting of stochastic dynamical systems that eventually go extinct, the quasi-stationary distributions are useful to understand the long-term behavior of a system before evanescence. For a broad class of applicable continuous-time Markov processes on countably infinite state spaces, known as reaction networks, we introduce the inferred notion of absorbing and endorsed sets, and obtain sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of a quasi-stationary distribution within each such endorsed set. In particular, we obtain sufficient conditions for the existence of a globally attracting quasi-stationary distribution in the space of probability measures on the set of endorsed states. Furthermore, under these conditions, the convergence from any initial distribution to the quasi-stationary distribution is exponential in the total variation norm.

math.PR↗