arXiv subjects

Magnus Jansson

Publications and source records attributed to Magnus Jansson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Semiparametric Framework for Stochastic Fundamental Diagram Modeling

The stochastic fundamental diagram (SFD) provides a probabilistic description of the relationship between traffic density and flow or speed, enabling uncertainty-aware traffic modeling. However, existing stochastic models frequently struggle to accommodate rigorous physical constraints while retaining sufficient flexibility to capture complex nonlinear patterns. To address this, we propose a novel semiparametric SFD modeling framework by leveraging specially designed functional forms. These functions intrinsically satisfy physical constraints defined on the moments of the conditional flow distribution given traffic density while incorporating neural-network-based structures to capture complex empirical patterns. We derive a system of moment-matching equations to convert physical constraints into the parameterization of the conditional distribution, proving that a unique solution exists for the location-scale family of distributions, thereby guaranteeing model well-posedness. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the framework can be extended to non-location-scale distributions, including those requiring additional boundary constraints. Empirical evaluations on a real-world dataset reveal that our approach consistently outperforms representative baselines, delivering superior probabilistic accuracy and robust uncertainty quantification, particularly in congested regimes. Overall, the proposed framework provides a theoretically grounded and flexible foundation for stochastic traffic flow modeling.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Local Sensitivity Analysis for Kernel-Regularized ARX Predictors in Data-Driven Predictive Control

We study local sensitivity of structured ARX-based data-driven predictive control. Although predictor estimation is linear in the ARX parameters, the lifted multi-step predictor used in MPC depends on them implicitly, which complicates both uncertainty propagation and task-aware regularization. We derive a local first-order linearization of this implicit predictor map. The resulting Jacobian yields both an approximate control-relevant prediction uncertainty term and a task-dependent sensitivity metric for shaping kernel regularization. Numerical results show that the proposed analysis is most useful in weak-excitation regimes, where baseline SS regularization already provides substantial robustness gains and the proposed sensitivity shaping yields a further smaller improvement.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Closed-Loop Consistent, Causal Data-Driven Predictive Control via SSARX

We propose a fundamental-lemma-free data-driven predictive control (DDPC) scheme for synthesizing model predictive control (MPC)-like policies directly from input-output data. Unlike the well-known DeePC approach and other DDPC methods that rely on Willems' fundamental lemma, our method avoids stacked Hankel representations and the DeePC decision variable g. Instead, we develop a closed-loop consistent, causal DDPC scheme based on the multi-step predictor Subspace-ARX (SSARX). The method first (i) estimates predictor/observer Markov parameters via a high-order ARX model to decouple the noise, then (ii) learns a multi-step past-to-future map by regression, optionally with a reduced-rank constraint. The SSARX predictor is strictly causal, which allows it to be integrated naturally into an MPC formulation. Our experimental results show that SSARX performs competitively with other methods when applied to closed-loop data affected by measurement and process noise.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

The Innovation Null Space of the Kalman Predictor: A Stochastic Perspective for DeePC

Willems' fundamental lemma uses a key decision variable $g$ to combine measured input-output data and describe trajectories of a linear time-invariant system. In this paper, we ask: what is a good choice for this vector $g$ when the system is affected by noise? For a linear system with Gaussian noise, we show that there exists an optimal subspace for this decision variable $g$, which is the null space of the innovation Hankel matrix. If the decision vector lies in this null space, the resulting predictor gets closer to the Kalman predictor. To show this, we use a result that we refer to as the Kalman Filter Fundamental Lemma (KFFL), which applies Willems' lemma to the Kalman predictor. This viewpoint also explains several existing data-driven predictive control methods: regularized DeePC schemes act as soft versions of the innovation null-space constraint, instrumental-variable methods enforce it by construction, and ARX-based approaches explicitly estimate this innovation null space.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Model Selection in High-Dimensional Block-Sparse Linear Regression

Model selection is an indispensable part of data analysis dealing very frequently with fitting and prediction purposes. In this paper, we tackle the problem of model selection in a general linear regression where the parameter matrix possesses a block-sparse structure, i.e., the non-zero entries occur in clusters or blocks and the number of such non-zero blocks is very small compared to the parameter dimension. Furthermore, a high-dimensional setting is considered where the parameter dimension is quite large compared to the number of available measurements. To perform model selection in this setting, we present an information criterion that is a generalization of the Extended Bayesian Information Criterion-Robust (EBIC-R) and it takes into account both the block structure and the high-dimensionality scenario. The analytical steps for deriving the EBIC-R for this setting are provided. Simulation results show that the proposed method performs considerably better than the existing state-of-the-art methods and achieves empirical consistency at large sample sizes and/or at high-SNR.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2022

Robust Information Criterion for Model Selection in Sparse High-Dimensional Linear Regression Models

Model selection in linear regression models is a major challenge when dealing with high-dimensional data where the number of available measurements (sample size) is much smaller than the dimension of the parameter space. Traditional methods for model selection such as Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and minimum description length are heavily prone to overfitting in the high-dimensional setting. In this regard, extended BIC (EBIC), which is an extended version of the original BIC and extended Fisher information criterion (EFIC), which is a combination of EBIC and Fisher information criterion, are consistent estimators of the true model as the number of measurements grows very large. However, EBIC is not consistent in high signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) scenarios where the sample size is fixed and EFIC is not invariant to data scaling resulting in unstable behaviour. In this paper, we propose a new form of the EBIC criterion called EBIC-Robust, which is invariant to data scaling and consistent in both large sample size and high-SNR scenarios. Analytical proofs are presented to guarantee its consistency. Simulation results indicate that the performance of EBIC-Robust is quite superior to that of both EBIC and EFIC.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2017

A Connectedness Constraint for Learning Sparse Graphs

Graphs are naturally sparse objects that are used to study many problems involving networks, for example, distributed learning and graph signal processing. In some cases, the graph is not given, but must be learned from the problem and available data. Often it is desirable to learn sparse graphs. However, making a graph highly sparse can split the graph into several disconnected components, leading to several separate networks. The main difficulty is that connectedness is often treated as a combinatorial property, making it hard to enforce in e.g. convex optimization problems. In this article, we show how connectedness of undirected graphs can be formulated as an analytical property and can be enforced as a convex constraint. We especially show how the constraint relates to the distributed consensus problem and graph Laplacian learning. Using simulated and real data, we perform experiments to learn sparse and connected graphs from data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

PUMA criterion = MODE criterion

We show that the recently proposed (enhanced) PUMA estimator for array processing minimizes the same criterion function as the well-established MODE estimator. (PUMA = principal-singular-vector utilization for modal analysis, MODE = method of direction estimation.)

stat.OT↗

arXiv2016

Successive Concave Sparsity Approximation for Compressed Sensing

In this paper, based on a successively accuracy-increasing approximation of the $\ell_0$ norm, we propose a new algorithm for recovery of sparse vectors from underdetermined measurements. The approximations are realized with a certain class of concave functions that aggressively induce sparsity and their closeness to the $\ell_0$ norm can be controlled. We prove that the series of the approximations asymptotically coincides with the $\ell_1$ and $\ell_0$ norms when the approximation accuracy changes from the worst fitting to the best fitting. When measurements are noise-free, an optimization scheme is proposed which leads to a number of weighted $\ell_1$ minimization programs, whereas, in the presence of noise, we propose two iterative thresholding methods that are computationally appealing. A convergence guarantee for the iterative thresholding method is provided, and, for a particular function in the class of the approximating functions, we derive the closed-form thresholding operator. We further present some theoretical analyses via the restricted isometry, null space, and spherical section properties. Our extensive numerical simulations indicate that the proposed algorithm closely follows the performance of the oracle estimator for a range of sparsity levels wider than those of the state-of-the-art algorithms.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2015

Upper Bounds on the Error of Sparse Vector and Low-Rank Matrix Recovery

Suppose that a solution $\widetilde{\mathbf{x}}$ to an underdetermined linear system $\mathbf{b} = \mathbf{A} \mathbf{x}$ is given. $\widetilde{\mathbf{x}}$ is approximately sparse meaning that it has a few large components compared to other small entries. However, the total number of nonzero components of $\widetilde{\mathbf{x}}$ is large enough to violate any condition for the uniqueness of the sparsest solution. On the other hand, if only the dominant components are considered, then it will satisfy the uniqueness conditions. One intuitively expects that $\widetilde{\mathbf{x}}$ should not be far from the true sparse solution $\mathbf{x}_0$. We show that this intuition is the case by providing an upper bound on $\| \widetilde{\mathbf{x}} - \mathbf{x}_0\|$ which is a function of the magnitudes of small components of $\widetilde{\mathbf{x}}$ but independent from $\mathbf{x}_0$. This result is extended to the case that $\mathbf{b}$ is perturbed by noise. Additionally, we generalize the upper bounds to the low-rank matrix recovery problem.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2015

Bayesian Learning for Low-Rank matrix reconstruction

We develop latent variable models for Bayesian learning based low-rank matrix completion and reconstruction from linear measurements. For under-determined systems, the developed methods are shown to reconstruct low-rank matrices when neither the rank nor the noise power is known a-priori. We derive relations between the latent variable models and several low-rank promoting penalty functions. The relations justify the use of Kronecker structured covariance matrices in a Gaussian based prior. In the methods, we use evidence approximation and expectation-maximization to learn the model parameters. The performance of the methods is evaluated through extensive numerical simulations.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2015

Ranging without time stamps exchanging

We investigate the range estimate between two wireless nodes without time stamps exchanging. Considering practical aspects of oscillator clocks, we propose a new model for ranging in which the measurement errors include the sum of two distributions, namely, uniform and Gaussian. We then derive an approximate maximum likelihood estimator (AMLE), which poses a difficult global optimization problem. To avoid the difficulty in solving the complex AMLE, we propose a simple estimator based on the method of moments. Numerical results show a promising performance for the proposed technique.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2015

Combined modeling of sparse and dense noise for improvement of Relevance Vector Machine

Using a Bayesian approach, we consider the problem of recovering sparse signals under additive sparse and dense noise. Typically, sparse noise models outliers, impulse bursts or data loss. To handle sparse noise, existing methods simultaneously estimate the sparse signal of interest and the sparse noise of no interest. For estimating the sparse signal, without the need of estimating the sparse noise, we construct a robust Relevance Vector Machine (RVM). In the RVM, sparse noise and ever present dense noise are treated through a combined noise model. The precision of combined noise is modeled by a diagonal matrix. We show that the new RVM update equations correspond to a non-symmetric sparsity inducing cost function. Further, the combined modeling is found to be computationally more efficient. We also extend the method to block-sparse signals and noise with known and unknown block structures. Through simulations, we show the performance and computation efficiency of the new RVM in several applications: recovery of sparse and block sparse signals, housing price prediction and image denoising.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2014

Diffusion Estimation Over Cooperative Multi-Agent Networks With Missing Data

In many fields, and especially in the medical and social sciences and in recommender systems, data are gathered through clinical studies or targeted surveys. Participants are generally reluctant to respond to all questions in a survey or they may lack information to respond adequately to some questions. The data collected from these studies tend to lead to linear regression models where the regression vectors are only known partially: some of their entries are either missing completely or replaced randomly by noisy values. In this work, assuming missing positions are replaced by noisy values, we examine how a connected network of agents, with each one of them subjected to a stream of data with incomplete regression information, can cooperate with each other through local interactions to estimate the underlying model parameters in the presence of missing data. We explain how to adjust the distributed diffusion through (de)regularization in order to eliminate the bias introduced by the incomplete model. We also propose a technique to recursively estimate the (de)regularization parameter and examine the performance of the resulting strategy. We illustrate the results by considering two applications: one dealing with a mental health survey and the other dealing with a household consumption survey.

math.ST↗

arXiv2014

Alternating Strategies Are Good For Low-Rank Matrix Reconstruction

This article focuses on the problem of reconstructing low-rank matrices from underdetermined measurements using alternating optimization strategies. We endeavour to combine an alternating least-squares based estimation strategy with ideas from the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) to recover structured low-rank matrices, such as Hankel structure. We show that merging these two alternating strategies leads to a better performance than the existing alternating least squares (ALS) strategy. The performance is evaluated via numerical simulations.

math.ST↗

arXiv2014

Relevance Singular Vector Machine for low-rank matrix sensing

In this paper we develop a new Bayesian inference method for low rank matrix reconstruction. We call the new method the Relevance Singular Vector Machine (RSVM) where appropriate priors are defined on the singular vectors of the underlying matrix to promote low rank. To accelerate computations, a numerically efficient approximation is developed. The proposed algorithms are applied to matrix completion and matrix reconstruction problems and their performance is studied numerically.

math.NA↗

arXiv2014

DOA Estimation in Partially Correlated Noise Using Low-Rank/Sparse Matrix Decomposition

We consider the problem of direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation in unknown partially correlated noise environments where the noise covariance matrix is sparse. A sparse noise covariance matrix is a common model for a sparse array of sensors consisted of several widely separated subarrays. Since interelement spacing among sensors in a subarray is small, the noise in the subarray is in general spatially correlated, while, due to large distances between subarrays, the noise between them is uncorrelated. Consequently, the noise covariance matrix of such an array has a block diagonal structure which is indeed sparse. Moreover, in an ordinary nonsparse array, because of small distance between adjacent sensors, there is noise coupling between neighboring sensors, whereas one can assume that nonadjacent sensors have spatially uncorrelated noise which makes again the array noise covariance matrix sparse. Utilizing some recently available tools in low-rank/sparse matrix decomposition, matrix completion, and sparse representation, we propose a novel method which can resolve possibly correlated or even coherent sources in the aforementioned partly correlated noise. In particular, when the sources are uncorrelated, our approach involves solving a second-order cone programming (SOCP), and if they are correlated or coherent, one needs to solve a computationally harder convex program. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm by numerical simulations and comparison to the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB).

cs.IT↗

arXiv2014

Estimation for the Linear Model with Uncertain Covariance Matrices

We derive a maximum a posteriori estimator for the linear observation model, where the signal and noise covariance matrices are both uncertain. The uncertainties are treated probabilistically by modeling the covariance matrices with prior inverse-Wishart distributions. The nonconvex problem of jointly estimating the signal of interest and the covariance matrices is tackled by a computationally efficient fixed-point iteration as well as an approximate variational Bayes solution. The statistical performance of estimators is compared numerically to state-of-the-art estimators from the literature and shown to perform favorably.

math.ST↗