arXiv subjects

Maher A. Dayeh

Publications and source records attributed to Maher A. Dayeh.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Solar Orbiter SEP Dropout during a Magnetic Cloud with Evidence for Strong Connectivity Gradients

We analyze an impulsive solar energetic particle (SEP) event observed by Solar Orbiter at 0.93 au on 2022 December 24 that exhibits a pronounced intensity dropout between approximately 07:15 and 10:00 UT. Pitch-angle distributions show a near-field-aligned beam before the dropout, which disappears abruptly at the dropout onset. At the same time, a weak 100--200 keV component appears at pitch angles of about 90--180 degrees; no comparable enhancement over this pitch-angle range is present at MeV energies. The dropout onset is not accompanied by an abrupt change in the in situ magnetic field or solar wind plasma. Solar imaging associates the SEP event with a jet from a compact source. Ballistic back mapping, together with Potential Field Source Surface extrapolations and quasi-separatrix-layer proxy diagnostics, indicates that Solar Orbiter nominally connects to the source region, but lies close to strong connectivity gradients where small displacement may shift the connection to neighboring open field lines. The in situ measurements show that the event occurs during a magnetic-cloud passage and that additional dropouts occur later in the event. These results favor an interpretation in which the dropout reflects rapid changes in particle access between adjacent flux tubes, while the magnetic cloud may help preserve the sharp SEP intensity gradients between them.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Review of Machine Learning Models for Solar Energetic Particle Prediction

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events have attracted increasing attention due to their significant radiation hazards for aviation, spacecraft electronics, and human missions beyond Earth's magnetosphere. From a scientific perspective, SEP events are intriguing because they arise from a set of physical processes extending from the solar surface and corona through the heliosphere, offering insight into particle acceleration and transport mechanisms that are widely applicable across astrophysics. Therefore, advancing our ability to understand and predict SEP events is essential both for deepening our knowledge of such mechanisms and for safeguarding space technologies and exploration. Traditionally, researchers have modeled SEPs using physics-based simulations and empirical methods. More recently, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a new tool for understanding and predicting SEP events. The purpose of this manuscript is to review the currently available ML models for SEP prediction, identify the datasets used for training, compare their architectures, inputs, and outputs, and, based on these insights, outline good practices and recommendations for future research.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Sunward Streaming 3He-rich SEP Events Observed by Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe during Perihelion Passage

We report on two 3He-rich solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed by Solar Orbiter (SO) and Parker Solar Probe (PSP) during the April 1 - 4, 2024 conjunction when both spacecraft are within 0.3 AU near their respective perihelion passage. The two 3He-rich SEP events, originating from active region (AR) 13615, exhibit two key anomalies: (1) sunward streaming SEPs and (2) SEP travel path lengths exceeding 2 - 8 times the nominal Parker spiral expectations. Remote observations suggest these SEPs have been redirected by a slow coronal mass ejection (CME) that also originated from AR 13615 two days prior on March 30, 2024 at 21:04 UT. Using the near-Sun CME speed and width measurements, we estimate its size and location at the onset time of the first 3He-rich SEP event. Based on our estimates, SEPs propagating around the ICME front have travelled between 0.76 - 0.95 AU when they arrive at SO, increasing to 0.94 - 1.1 AU at PSP, consistent with our observed SEP arrival times. These findings constitute the first multi-spacecraft observation of sunward streaming 3He-rich SEPs. We discuss the implications of this phenomenon on 3He-rich seed material and the rare widespread 3He-rich SEP events (see Section 5.4).

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2024

Forecasting Shock-associated Energetic Particle Intensities in the Inner Heliosphere: A Proof-of-Concept Capability for the PUNCH Mission

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) associated with shocks driven by fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) or shocks developed by corotating interaction regions (CIRs) often extend to high energies, and are thus key elements of space weather. The PUNCH mission, set to be launched in 2025, is equipped with photometric that enables 3D tracking of solar wind structures in the interplanetary space through polarized light. Tracking techniques are used to estimate speeds and speed gradients of solar structures, including speed jumps at fast shocks. We report on a strong and a robust relation between the shock speed jump magnitude at CME and CIR shocks and the peak fluxes of associated energetic particles from the analysis of 59 CME-driven shocks and 74 CIRs observed by Wind/STEP between 1997-2023. We demonstrate that this relation, along with PUNCH anticipated observations of solar structures can be used to forecast shock-associated particle events close to the Sun; thus, advancing and providing a crucial input to forecasting of SEP fluxes in the heliosphere.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Origin of 3He abundance enhancements in gradual solar energetic particle events

We examined the origin of 3He abundance enhancement in 23 high-energy (25-50 MeV) solar proton events that coincide with 3He-rich periods detected by ACE ULEIS in 1997-2021. In seven events, 3He enhancement was due to 3He leftover from preceding events or independent 3He events occurring during proton events. One event is the most likely impulsive (3He-rich), and another is unclear. Reaccelerated remnant flare material was the most probable cause of 3He enhancements in the remaining 14 proton events. Imaging observations showed coronal jets in the parent active regions in six of these 14 events. Remarkably, the highest 3He/4He occurred in events with jets, implying their contribution to 3He enhancement.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

CME Deflection and East-West Asymmetry of ESP Intensity in Solar Cycles 23 and 24

We investigate the East-West asymmetry in energetic storm particle (ESP) heavy ion intensities at interplanetary shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during solar cycles (SCs) 23 and 24. We use observations from NASA's ACE and STEREO missions of helium (He), oxygen (O), and iron (Fe) intensities from ~0.13 to 3 MeV/nucleon. We examine the longitudinal distribution of ESP intensities and the correlation of ESP intensities with the near-Sun CME speed and the average transit CME speed for eastern and western events. We observed an East-West asymmetry reversal of ESP heavy ion intensities from SC 23 to 24. We have determined that this change in asymmetry is caused by a shift in the heliolongitude distribution of the CME speed ratio (the ratio of CME near-Sun speed to CME average transit speed) from west to east.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

MEMPSEP II. -- Forecasting the Properties of Solar Energetic Particle Events using a Multivariate Ensemble Approach

Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) form a critical component of Space Weather. The complex, intertwined dynamics of SEP sources, acceleration, and transport make their forecasting very challenging. Yet, information about SEP arrival and their properties (e.g., peak flux) is crucial for space exploration on many fronts. We have recently introduced a novel probabilistic ensemble model called the Multivariate Ensemble of Models for Probabilistic Forecast of Solar Energetic Particles (MEMPSEP). Its primary aim is to forecast the occurrence and physical properties of SEPs. The occurrence forecasting, thoroughly discussed in a preceding paper (Chatterjee et al., 2023), is complemented by the work presented here, which focuses on forecasting the physical properties of SEPs. The MEMPSEP model relies on an ensemble of Convolutional Neural Networks, which leverage a multi-variate dataset comprising full-disc magnetogram sequences and numerous derived and in-situ data from various sources. Skill scores demonstrate that MEMPSEP exhibits improved predictions on SEP properties for the test set data with SEP occurrence probability above 50%, compared to those with a probability below 50%. Results present a promising approach to address the challenging task of forecasting SEP physical properties, thus improving our forecasting capabilities and advancing our understanding of the dominant parameters and processes that govern SEP production.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Investigating the IBEX Ribbon Structure a Solar Cycle Apart

A Ribbon of enhanced energetic neutral atom (ENA) emissions was discovered by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) in 2009, redefining our understanding of the heliosphere boundaries and the physical processes occurring at the interstellar interface. The Ribbon signal is intertwined with that of a globally distributed flux (GDF) that spans the entire sky. To a certain extent, Ribbon separation methods enabled examining its evolution independent of the underlying GDF. Observations over a full solar cycle revealed the Ribbon's evolving nature, with intensity variations closely tracking those of the solar wind (SW) structure after a few years delay accounting for the SW-ENA recycling process. In this work, we examine the Ribbon structure, namely, its ENA fluxes, angular extent, width, and circularity properties for two years, 2009 and 2019, representative of the declining phases of two adjacent solar cycles. We find that, (i) the Ribbon ENA fluxes have recovered in the nose direction and south of it down to ~ 25° (for energies below 1.7 keV) and not at mid and high ecliptic latitudes; (ii) The Ribbon width exhibits significant variability as a function of azimuthal angle; (iii) Circularity analysis suggests that the 2019 Ribbon exhibits a statistically consistent radius with that in 2009. The Ribbon's partial recovery is aligned with the consensus of a heliosphere with its closest point being southward of the nose region. The large variability of the Ribbon width as a function of Azimuth in 2019 compared to 2009 is likely indicative of small-scale processes within the Ribbon.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Solar Cycle Variation of 0.3-1.29 MeV/nucleon Heavy Ion Composition during Quiet Times near 1 AU in Solar Cycles 23 and 24

We report on the annual variation of quiet-time suprathermal ion composition for C through Fe using Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)/Ultra-Low Energy Isotope Spectrometer (ULEIS) data over the energy range 0.3 MeV/nuc to 1.28 MeV/nuc from 1998 through 2019, covering solar cycle 23's rising phase through Solar Cycle 24's declining phase. Our findings are (1) quiet time suprathermal abundances resemble CIR-associated particles during solar minima; (2) quiet time suprathermals are M/Q fractionated in a manner that is consistent with M/Q fractionation in large gradual solar energetic particle events (GSEP) during solar maxima; and (3) variability within the quiet time suprathermal pool increases as a function of M/Q and is consistent with the analogous variability in GSEP events. From these observations, we infer that quiet time suprathermal ions are remnants of CIRs in solar minima and GSEP events in solar maxima. Coincident with these results, we also unexpectedly show that S behaves like a low FIP ion in the suprathermal regime and therefore drawn from low FIP solar sources.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Modelling Solar Energetic Neutral Atoms from Solar Flares and CME-driven Shocks

We examine the production of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) in solar flares and CME-driven shocks and their subsequent propagation to 1 au. Time profiles and fluence spectra of solar ENAs at 1 au are computed for two scenarios: 1) ENAs are produced downstream at CME-driven shocks, and 2) ENAs are produced at large-scale post-flare loops in solar flares. Both the time profiles and fluence spectra for these two scenarios are vastly different. Our calculations indicate that we can use solar ENAs as a new probe to examine the underlying acceleration process of solar energetic particles (SEPs) and to differentiate the two accelertion sites: large loops in solar flares and downstream of CME-driven shocks, in large SEP events.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Statistical Study and Live Catalogue of Multi-Spacecraft 3He-Rich Time Periods over Solar Cycles 23, 24, and 25

Using ion measurements from Ultra-Low-Energy Isotope Spectrometer (ULEIS) observations onboard Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and Solar Isotope Spectrometer (SIS) observations onboard the Solar Terrestrial Observatory (STEREO)-A and STEREO-B spacecraft, we have identified 854 3He-rich time periods between 1997 September and 2021 March. We include all event types with observed 3He enhancements such as corotating interaction regions (CIRs), gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events, interplanetary shocks, and impulsive SEP events. We employ two different mass separation techniques to obtain 3He, 4He, Fe, and O fluences for each event, and we determine the 3He/4He and Fe/O abundance ratios between 0.32 to 0.45 MeV/nucleon and 0.64 to 1.28 MeV/nucleon. We find a clear correlation in the 3He/4He and Fe/O abundance ratios between both energy ranges. We find two distinct trends in the 3He/4He vs. Fe/O relation. For low 3He/4He values, there is a positive linear correlation between 3He/4He and Fe/O. However, at 3He/4He ~ 0.3, Fe/O appears to reach a limit and the correlation weakens significantly. We provide a live catalogue of 3He rich time periods that includes the robust determination of the onset and end times of the 3He enhancements in SEP-associated periods for different types of events observed my multiple spacecraft. This catalogue is available for public use. New releases will follow after major additions such as adding new periods from new missions (e.g., Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter), identifying event types (impulsive SEP events, etc.), or adding new parameters such as remote observations detailing characteristics of the active regions.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Estimation of turbulent heating of solar wind protons at 1AU

The paper presents a new method for deriving turbulent heating of the solar wind using plasma moments and magnetic field data. We develop the method and then apply it to compute the turbulent heating of the solar wind proton plasma at 1AU. The method employs two physical properties of the expanding solar wind plasma, the wave-particle thermodynamic equilibrium, and the transport of entropic rate. We analyze plasma moments and field datasets taken from Wind S/C, in order to compute (i) the fluctuating magnetic energy, (ii) the corresponding correlation length, and (iii) the turbulent heating rate. We identify their relationships with the solar wind speed, as well as the variation of these relationships relative to solar wind and interplanetary coronal mass ejection plasma.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

Early-Stage SEP Acceleration by CME-Driven Shocks with Realistic Seed Spectra: I. Low corona

An outstanding problem in heliospheric physics is understanding the acceleration of solar energetic particles (SEP) in coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. A fundamental question is whether the acceleration occurs in interplanetary space, or near the Sun. Recent work has shown that CME-driven shocks may produce SEPs while still below 5 solar radii. In this work we explore SEP acceleration during the onset of CMEs and shocks even lower in the corona, using realistic suprathermal spectra, for a selection of events. We have calculated quiet-time, pre-event suprathermal particle spectra from 1 AU observations, and scaled them back to the low corona to serve as seed spectra. For each event, AIA observations and the CASHeW framework were used to model the compressive/shock wave kinematics and its interaction with the corona. The proton acceleration was then modeled using an analytic diffusive shock acceleration model as the shock waves propagate between 1.05 and 1.3 solar radii. We demonstrate the capability of low coronal shock-related EUV waves to accelerate protons to multi-MeV energies in a matter of minutes, in the very early stages of the associated solar eruptions. We find that strong proton energization occurs for high values of the density jump, Alfven Mach number, and shock speed. In future work the results of this early-stage shock acceleration will be used to model the continued acceleration higher in the corona.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Global Numerical Modeling of Energetic Proton Acceleration in a Coronal Mass Ejection Traveling through the Solar Corona

The acceleration of protons and electrons to high (sometimes GeV/nucleon) energies by solar phenomena is a key component of space weather. These solar energetic particle (SEP) events can damage spacecraft and communications, as well as present radiation hazards to humans. In-depth particle acceleration simulations have been performed for idealized magnetic fields for diffusive acceleration and particle propagation, and at the same time the quality of MHD simulations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) has improved significantly. However, to date these two pieces of the same puzzle have remained largely decoupled. Such structures may contain not just a shock but also sizable sheath and pileup compression regions behind it, and may vary considerably with longitude and latitude based on the underlying coronal conditions. In this work, we have coupled results from a detailed global three-dimensional MHD time-dependent CME simulation to a global proton acceleration and transport model, in order to study time-dependent effects of SEP acceleration between 1.8 and 8 solar radii in the 2005 May 13 CME. We find that the source population is accelerated to at least 100 MeV, with distributions enhanced up to six orders of magnitude. Acceleration efficiency varies strongly along field lines probing different regions of the dynamically evolving CME, whose dynamics is influenced by the large-scale coronal magnetic field structure. We observe strong acceleration in sheath regions immediately behind the shock.

physics.space-ph↗