arXiv subjects

Maimuna S. Majumder

Publications and source records attributed to Maimuna S. Majumder.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Multi-strain spreading dynamics under arbitrary transmission kernels

Compartmental models of epidemic dynamics have long described the propagation of a single, immutable transmissible state through a population via pairwise contact, and multi-strain generalizations have extended this framework to incorporate mutation, competition, and cross-immunity. Here we study a minimal generalization with no sink states or feedback, in which transmission acts through an arbitrary column-stochastic kernel $Q$ on a finite set of strains, encoding mutation during transmission with no further structural assumptions. We derive the mean-field approximation for the well-mixed regime and show that it admits an exact closed-form solution for any $Q$, expressible as a single matrix exponential applied to the initial condition. A spectral decomposition of this solution reveals that the location of the long-time attractor and the rate of approach are governed by the eigenstructure of $Q$. We extend the analysis to structured populations via a pairwise mean-field approximation on regular contact networks, and validate both approximations against stochastic simulations. The framework provides an entry into the analysis of dynamical systems in which mutation and transmission occur on the same time scale, drawing parallels to the propagation of discrete signals through populations under noisy communication.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

EpiCurveBench: Evaluating VLMs on Epidemic Curve Digitization

Chart-to-data extraction with vision-language models (VLMs) is increasingly evaluated on benchmarks that show diminishing headroom (frontier VLMs exceed 89% on ChartQA) and with metrics that treat extracted points as unordered key-value pairs, ignoring the temporal structure of time series and penalizing small alignment shifts as catastrophic failures. We address both gaps with EpiCurveBench, a benchmark of 1,000 real-world epidemic curve images curated from diverse public-health sources, and EpiCurveSimilarity (ECS), an evaluation metric that aligns predicted and ground-truth series via dynamic programming, tolerating local temporal shifts and gaps while penalizing them proportionally. Evaluating six methods--three frontier closed VLMs, one open VLM, and two specialized chart-extraction systems--we find the strongest model reaches only 52.3% ECS, and that ECS spreads the four general-purpose VLMs over a 25-point range where key-value metrics (RMS, SCRM) compress them into a 5-point band. We further validate ECS against four downstream epidemiological summary statistics, finding that higher ECS predicts smaller errors in total counts, peak timing, and peak magnitude, and higher growth-rate fidelity; across all four, ECS correlates 1.5--3.6 times more strongly than Dynamic Time Warping, which lacks a gap penalty and therefore cannot distinguish a truncated prediction from a temporally faithful one. EpiCurveBench targets a high-impact public-health application--unlocking decades of outbreak data trapped in published figures--but the benchmark and metric apply directly to any structured time-series chart-extraction setting.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Self-Ensembling Vision-Language Models for Chart Data Extraction

Charts effectively convey quantitative information, but the underlying data are often locked in image form, hindering reuse and analysis. Manually digitizing charts is time-consuming and error-prone, motivating automatic chart-to-table extraction. Recent approaches use specialized vision-language models (VLMs), yet performance still lags on charts with many datapoints or substantial stylistic variation. We propose a VLM self-ensembling method that repeatedly samples multiple tabular outputs from the same VLM for a fixed chart image and aggregates them at the level of individual table cells. We align candidate tables and take per-cell medians over numerical values to produce a more accurate consensus table. Our method also includes convergence detection to stop sampling once the aggregated table stabilizes, and uncertainty estimation based on dispersion across samples to help users assess extraction reliability. Because existing chart extraction benchmarks contain relatively simple plots with limited room for improvement, we introduce WB-ChartExtract, a new benchmark built from World Bank data with more complex and stylistically diverse charts; on average, its charts contain 7 times more datapoints than those in the ChartQA benchmark. Across both ChartQA and WB-ChartExtract, our approach improves extraction accuracy over single-pass VLM outputs, yielding up to 23% relative improvement on WB-ChartExtract after ensembling. More broadly, our method helps unlock tabular data previously siloed in chart images, enabling downstream analysis and reuse.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Tracking COVID-19 using online search

Previous research has demonstrated that various properties of infectious diseases can be inferred from online search behaviour. In this work we use time series of online search query frequencies to gain insights about the prevalence of COVID-19 in multiple countries. We first develop unsupervised modelling techniques based on associated symptom categories identified by the United Kingdom's National Health Service and Public Health England. We then attempt to minimise an expected bias in these signals caused by public interest --as opposed to infections-- using the proportion of news media coverage devoted to COVID-19 as a proxy indicator. Our analysis indicates that models based on online searches precede the reported confirmed cases and deaths by 16.7 (10.2 - 23.2) and 22.1 (17.4 - 26.9) days, respectively. We also investigate transfer learning techniques for mapping supervised models from countries where the spread of disease has progressed extensively to countries that are in earlier phases of their respective epidemic curves. Furthermore, we compare time series of online search activity against confirmed COVID-19 cases or deaths jointly across multiple countries, uncovering interesting querying patterns, including the finding that rarer symptoms are better predictors than common ones. Finally, we show that web searches improve the short-term forecasting accuracy of autoregressive models for COVID-19 deaths. Our work provides evidence that online search data can be used to develop complementary public health surveillance methods to help inform the COVID-19 response in conjunction with more established approaches.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

What we should learn from pandemic publishing

Authors of COVID-19 papers produced during the pandemic were overwhelmingly not subject matter experts. Such a massive inflow of scholars from different expertise areas is both an asset and a potential problem. Domain-informed scientific collaboration is the key to preparing for future crises.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Assessing Human Judgment Forecasts in the Rapid Spread of the Mpox Outbreak: Insights and Challenges for Pandemic Preparedness

In May 2022, mpox (formerly monkeypox) spread to non-endemic countries rapidly. Human judgment is a forecasting approach that has been sparsely evaluated during the beginning of an outbreak. We collected -- between May 19, 2022 and July 31, 2022 -- 1275 forecasts from 442 individuals of six questions about the mpox outbreak where ground truth data are now available. Individual human judgment forecasts and an equally weighted ensemble were evaluated, as well as compared to a random walk, autoregressive, and doubling time model. We found (1) individual human judgment forecasts underestimated outbreak size, (2) the ensemble forecast median moved closer to the ground truth over time but uncertainty around the median did not appreciably decrease, and (3) compared to computational models, for 2-8 week ahead forecasts, the human judgment ensemble outperformed all three models when using median absolute error and weighted interval score; for one week ahead forecasts a random walk outperformed human judgment. We propose two possible explanations: at the time a forecast was submitted, the mode was correlated with the most recent (and smaller) observation that would eventually determine ground truth. Several forecasts were solicited on a logarithmic scale which may have caused humans to generate forecasts with unintended, large uncertainty intervals. To aide in outbreak preparedness, platforms that solicit human judgment forecasts may wish to assess whether specifying a forecast on logarithmic scale matches an individual's intended forecast, support human judgment by finding cues that are typically used to build forecasts, and, to improve performance, tailor their platform to allow forecasters to assign zero probability to events.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2017

Guided Deep List: Automating the Generation of Epidemiological Line Lists from Open Sources

Real-time monitoring and responses to emerging public health threats rely on the availability of timely surveillance data. During the early stages of an epidemic, the ready availability of line lists with detailed tabular information about laboratory-confirmed cases can assist epidemiologists in making reliable inferences and forecasts. Such inferences are crucial to understand the epidemiology of a specific disease early enough to stop or control the outbreak. However, construction of such line lists requires considerable human supervision and therefore, difficult to generate in real-time. In this paper, we motivate Guided Deep List, the first tool for building automated line lists (in near real-time) from open source reports of emerging disease outbreaks. Specifically, we focus on deriving epidemiological characteristics of an emerging disease and the affected population from reports of illness. Guided Deep List uses distributed vector representations (ala word2vec) to discover a set of indicators for each line list feature. This discovery of indicators is followed by the use of dependency parsing based techniques for final extraction in tabular form. We evaluate the performance of Guided Deep List against a human annotated line list provided by HealthMap corresponding to MERS outbreaks in Saudi Arabia. We demonstrate that Guided Deep List extracts line list features with increased accuracy compared to a baseline method. We further show how these automatically extracted line list features can be used for making epidemiological inferences, such as inferring demographics and symptoms-to-hospitalization period of affected individuals.

cs.CL↗