arXiv subjects

Manas Paranjape

Publications and source records attributed to Manas Paranjape.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

How time and pollster history affect U.S. election forecasts under a compartmental modeling approach

In the months leading up to political elections in the United States, forecasts are widespread and take on multiple forms, including projections of what party will win the popular vote, state ratings, and predictions of vote margins at the state level. It can be challenging to evaluate how accuracy changes in the lead up to Election Day or to put probabilistic forecasts into historical context. Moreover, forecasts differ between analysts, highlighting the many choices in the forecasting process. With this as motivation, here we take a more comprehensive view and begin to unpack some of the choices involved in election forecasting. Building on a prior compartmental model of election dynamics, we present the forecasts of this model across months, years, and types of race. By gathering together monthly forecasts of presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial races from 2004--2022, we provide a larger-scale perspective and discuss how treating polling data in different ways affects forecast accuracy. We conclude with our 2024 election forecasts (upcoming at the time of writing).

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

DF-TransFusion: Multimodal Deepfake Detection via Lip-Audio Cross-Attention and Facial Self-Attention

With the rise in manipulated media, deepfake detection has become an imperative task for preserving the authenticity of digital content. In this paper, we present a novel multi-modal audio-video framework designed to concurrently process audio and video inputs for deepfake detection tasks. Our model capitalizes on lip synchronization with input audio through a cross-attention mechanism while extracting visual cues via a fine-tuned VGG-16 network. Subsequently, a transformer encoder network is employed to perform facial self-attention. We conduct multiple ablation studies highlighting different strengths of our approach. Our multi-modal methodology outperforms state-of-the-art multi-modal deepfake detection techniques in terms of F-1 and per-video AUC scores.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

DanceAnyWay: Synthesizing Beat-Guided 3D Dances with Randomized Temporal Contrastive Learning

We present DanceAnyWay, a generative learning method to synthesize beat-guided dances of 3D human characters synchronized with music. Our method learns to disentangle the dance movements at the beat frames from the dance movements at all the remaining frames by operating at two hierarchical levels. At the coarser "beat" level, it encodes the rhythm, pitch, and melody information of the input music via dedicated feature representations only at the beat frames. It leverages them to synthesize the beat poses of the target dances using a sequence-to-sequence learning framework. At the finer "repletion" level, our method encodes similar rhythm, pitch, and melody information from all the frames of the input music via dedicated feature representations. It generates the full dance sequences by combining the synthesized beat and repletion poses and enforcing plausibility through an adversarial learning framework. Our training paradigm also enforces fine-grained diversity in the synthesized dances through a randomized temporal contrastive loss, which ensures different segments of the dance sequences have different movements and avoids motion freezing or collapsing to repetitive movements. We evaluate the performance of our approach through extensive experiments on the benchmark AIST++ dataset and observe improvements of about 7%-12% in motion quality metrics and 1.5%-4% in motion diversity metrics over the current baselines, respectively. We also conducted a user study to evaluate the visual quality of our synthesized dances. We note that, on average, the samples generated by our method were about 9-48% more preferred by the participants and had a 4-27% better five-point Likert-scale score over the best available current baseline in terms of motion quality and synchronization. Our source code and project page are available at https://github.com/aneeshbhattacharya/DanceAnyWay.

cs.SD↗