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Manfred Denker

Publications and source records attributed to Manfred Denker.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

Remarks on stationary GARCH processes under heavy tail distributions

Let $(X_n)_{n\in \mathbb Z}$ be a GARCH process with $E(X_0^4)<\infty$, and let $\mu_n$ denote the distribution of $\frac 1{{\sqrt n}}\sum_{i=1}^n [X_i^2-\mathbb E(X_0^2)]$. We derive a numerical approximation of $\mu_n$ when $x_1,...,x_n$ are observed. This yields the derivation of confidence intervals for $\mu= E(X_0^2)$ and we investigate the accuracy of these confidence intervals in comparison with standard ones based on normal approximation. Moreover, when the innovation process has heavy tail distribution, we improve the method using a new resampling method.

math.ST

Parametrized Families of Gibbs Measures and their Statistical Inference

For H\"older continuous functions $f_i$, $i=0,\ldots ,d$, on a subshift of finite type and $\Theta\subset \mathbb \R^d$ we consider a parametrized family of potentials $\{F_\theta= f_0+\sum_{i=1}^d \theta_i f_i : \theta\in \Theta\}$. We show that the maximum likelihood estimator of $\theta$ for a family of Gibbs measures with potentials $F_\theta$ is consistent and determine its asymptotic distribution under the associated shift-invariant distribution. A second part discusses applications; from confidence intervals through testing problems to connections to Bernoulli distributions and stationary Markov chains.

math.DS

Substituting Independent Processes

It is shown by constructing Rohlins canonical measures that for a strictly stationary, d-dimensional vector-valued process X there exists another strictly stationary d-dimensional process U with uniform one-dimensional marginals and with the same mixing properties as X, such that X is a finitary factor of U of coding length 1, and such that the projection map is order preserving in each coordinate. As an application this extends the a.s. approximation of the empirical distribution function of weakly dependent random vectors with continuous distribution function in [1] and [3] to the general case.

math.PR

Fluctuations of ergodic sums on periodic orbits under specification

We study the fluctuations of ergodic sums using global and local specifications on periodic points. We obtain Lindeberg-type central limit theorems in both situations. As an application, when the system possesses a unique measure of maximal entropy, we show weak convergence of ergodic sums to a mixture of normal distributions. Our results suggest decomposing the variances of ergodic sums according to global and local sources.

math.DS

Estimations by stable motions and applications

We propose a nonparametric parameter estimation of confidence intervals when the underlying has large or infinite variance. We explain the method by a simple numerical example and provide an application to estimate the coupling strength in neuronal networks.

math.ST

On specification and measure expansiveness

We relate the local specification and periodic shadowing properties. We also clarify the relation between local weak specification and local specification if the system is measure expansive. The notion of strong measure expansiveness is introduced, and an example of a non-expansive systems with the strong measure expansive property is given. Moreover, we find a family of examples with the $N$-expansive property, which are not strong measure expansive. We finally show a spectral decomposition theorem for strong measure expansive dynamical systems with shadowing.

math.DS

The Lindeberg theorem for Gibbs-Markov dynamics

A dynamical array consists of a family of functions $\{f_{n,i}: 1\le i\le k(n), n\ge 1\}$ and a family of initial times $\{τ_{n,i}: 1\le i\le k(n), n\ge 1\}$. For a dynamical system $(X,T)$ we identify distributional limits for sums of the form $$ S_n= \frac 1{s_n}\sum_{i=1}^{k(n)} [f_{n,i}\circ T^{τ_{n,i}}-a_{n,i}]\qquad n\ge 1$$ for suitable (non-random) constants $s_n>0$ and $a_{n,i}\in \mathbb R$, where the functions $f_{n,i}$ are locally Lipschitz continuous. Although our results hold for more general dynamics, we restrict to Gibbs-Markov dynamical systems for convenience. In particular, we derive a Lindeberg-type central limit theorem for dynamical arrays. Applications include new central limit theorems for functions which are not locally Lipschitz continuous and central limit theorems for statistical functions of time series obtained from Gibbs-Markov systems.

math.DS

Substitution Markov chains and Martin boundaries

Substitution Markov chains have been introduced [7] as a new model to describe molecular evolution. In this note, we study the associated Martin boundaries from a probabilistic and topological viewpoint. An example is given that, although having a boundary homeomorphic to the well-known coin tossing process, has a metric description that differs significantly.

math.PR

On the local times of stationary processes with conditional local limit theorems

We investigate the connection between conditional local limit theorems and the local time of integer-valued stationary processes. We show that a conditional local limit theorem (at 0) implies the convergence of local times to Mittag-Leffler distributions, both in the weak topology of distributions and a.s. in the space of distributions.

math.PR

Occupation times of discrete-time fractional Brownian motion

We prove a conditional local limit theorem for discrete-time fractional Brownian motions (dfBm) with Hurst parameter 3/4<H<1. Using results from infinite ergodic theory it is then shown that the properly scaled occupation time of dfBm converges to a Mittag-Leffler distribution.

math.PR

Limit theorems for von Mises statistics of a measure preserving transformation

For a measure preserving transformation $T$ of a probability space $(X,\mathcal F,μ)$ we investigate almost sure and distributional convergence of random variables of the form $$x \to \frac{1}{C_n} \sum_{i_1<n,...,i_d<n} f(T^{i_1}x,...,T^{i_d}x),\, n=1,2,..., $$ where $f$ (called the \emph{kernel}) is a function from $X^d$ to $\R$ and $C_1, C_2,...$ are appropriate normalizing constants. We observe that the above random variables are well defined and belong to $L_r(μ)$ provided that the kernel is chosen from the projective tensor product $$L_p(X_1,\mathcal F_1, μ_1) \otimes_π...\otimes_π L_p(X_d,\mathcal F_d, μ_d)\subset L_p(μ^d)$$ with $p=d\,r,\, r\ \in [1, \infty).$ We establish a form of the individual ergodic theorem for such sequences. Next, we give a martingale approximation argument to derive a central limit theorem in the non-degenerate case (in the sense of the classical Hoeffding's decomposition). Furthermore, for $d=2$ and a wide class of canonical kernels $f$ we also show that the convergence holds in distribution towards a quadratic form $\sum_{m=1}^{\infty} λ_mη^2_m$ in independent standard Gaussian variables $η_1, η_2,...$. Our results on the distributional convergence use a $T$--\,invariant filtration as a prerequisite and are derived from uni- and multivariate martingale approximations.

math.DS

Logarithmic Quantile Estimation for Rank Statistics

We prove an almost sure weak limit theorem for simple linear rank statistics for samples with continuous distributions functions. As a corollary the result extends to samples with ties, and the vector version of an a.s. central limit theorem for vectors of linear rank statistics. Moreover, we derive such a weak convergence result for some quadratic forms. These results are then applied to quantile estimation, and to hypothesis testing for nonparametric statistical designs, here demonstrated by the c-sample problem, where the samples may be dependent. In general, the method is known to be comparable to the bootstrap and other nonparametric methods (\cite{THA, FRI}) and we confirm this finding for the c-sample problem.

stat.ME

The Combinatorics of Avalanche Dynamics

We give a simple and elementary proof of the identity $$\sum_{r=1}^n\sum_{k_1,...,k_r\ge 1: \sum_{i=1}^r k_i= n} \frac {n!} {k_1!k_2!...k_r!}k_1^{k_2}...k_{r-1}^{k_r}=(n+1)^{n-1}$$ where $n\in \mathbb N$. A first application of this formula shows Cayley's theorem \cite{Caley} on the number of trees with $n+1$ vertices (in fact the formula is equivalent to Cayley's result). A second application gives the distribution of avalanche sizes, which can be deduced for general dynamical systems and also as a bilogically motivated urn model in probability. In particular, the law of avalanche sizes in Eurich et al. \cite{EHE} and Levina \cite{Levina} is closely related to this dynamical representation.

math.DS

Pseudorandom Numbers for Conformal Measure

We propose a new algorithm for generating pseudorandom (pseudo-generic) numbers of conformal measures of a continuous map T acting on a compact space X and for a Holder continuous potential F. In particular, we show that this algorithm provides good approximations to generic points for hyperbolic rational functions of degree two and the potential -h log|T'|, where h denotes the Hausdorff dimension of the Julia set of T .

math.DS