arXiv subjects

Manfred M. Fischer

Publications and source records attributed to Manfred M. Fischer.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Modeling Commuter Mobility in Stockholm: A Spatial Panel Approach Using Mobile Phone Data

This paper examines the sociodemographic and socioeconomic determinants of regional commuter mobility in the Greater Stockholm Area using a heteroscedastic spatial Durbin panel data model estimated via Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Drawing on mobile phone-derived origin-destination flows from the MIND database, the analysis exploits unusually fine spatial and temporal granularity across a balanced panel of 675 regions over the period 2018-2023. A k-nearest neighbor spatial weight matrix (k = 18), selected via Bayesian model comparison, captures the topological structure of interregional connectivity. By modeling spatial lags in both the dependent and independent variables, the framework enables explicit recovery of direct (own-region) and indirect (spillover) effects from scalar summary measures of the matrix of partial derivatives -- providing robust posterior inference on how sociodemographic and socioeconomic conditions propagate through space. This approach addresses a key limitation of conventional non-spatial methods, which risk producing biased estimates by ignoring spatial interdependence. Empirical results confirm that spatial spillovers predominate over direct effects, with educational attainment and car ownership emerging as the principal determinants of commuter mobility, while age composition plays a comparatively modest role. These findings underscore that evaluating direct effects in isolation systematically underestimates the broader societal returns to mobility-enhancing regional policies.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

The Effective Depth Paradox: Evaluating the Relationship between Architectural Topology and Trainability in Deep CNNs

This paper investigates the relationship between convolutional neural network (CNN) topology and image recognition performance through a comparative study of the VGG, ResNet, and GoogLeNet architectural families. Utilizing a unified experimental framework, the study isolates the impact of depth from confounding implementation variables. A formal distinction is introduced between nominal depth ($D_{\mathrm{nom}}$), representing the physical layer count, and effective depth ($D_{\mathrm{eff}}$), an operational metric quantifying the expected number of sequential transformations. Empirical results demonstrate that architectures utilizing identity shortcuts or branching modules maintain optimization stability by decoupling $D_{\mathrm{eff}}$ from $D_{\mathrm{nom}}$. These findings suggest that effective depth serves as a superior framework for predicting scaling potential and practical trainability, ultimately indicating that architectural topology - rather than sheer layer volume - is the primary determinant of gradient health in deep learning models.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

General Bayesian time-varying parameter VARs for predicting government bond yields

Time-varying parameter (TVP) regressions commonly assume that time-variation in the coefficients is determined by a simple stochastic process such as a random walk. While such models are capable of capturing a wide range of dynamic patterns, the true nature of time variation might stem from other sources, or arise from different laws of motion. In this paper, we propose a flexible TVP VAR that assumes the TVPs to depend on a panel of partially latent covariates. The latent part of these covariates differ in their state dynamics and thus capture smoothly evolving or abruptly changing coefficients. To determine which of these covariates are important, and thus to decide on the appropriate state evolution, we introduce Bayesian shrinkage priors to perform model selection. As an empirical application, we forecast the US term structure of interest rates and show that our approach performs well relative to a set of competing models. We then show how the model can be used to explain structural breaks in coefficients related to the US yield curve.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2018

The transmission of uncertainty shocks on income inequality: State-level evidence from the United States

In this paper, we explore the relationship between state-level household income inequality and macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States. Using a novel large-scale macroeconometric model, we shed light on regional disparities of inequality responses to a national uncertainty shock. The results suggest that income inequality decreases in most states, with a pronounced degree of heterogeneity in terms of shapes and magnitudes of the dynamic responses. By contrast, some few states, mostly located in the West and South census region, display increasing levels of income inequality over time. We find that this directional pattern in responses is mainly driven by the income composition and labor market fundamentals. In addition, forecast error variance decompositions allow for a quantitative assessment of the importance of uncertainty shocks in explaining income inequality. The findings highlight that volatility shocks account for a considerable fraction of forecast error variance for most states considered. Finally, a regression-based analysis sheds light on the driving forces behind differences in state-specific inequality responses.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2018

The dynamic impact of monetary policy on regional housing prices in the US: Evidence based on factor-augmented vector autoregressions

In this study interest centers on regional differences in the response of housing prices to monetary policy shocks in the US. We address this issue by analyzing monthly home price data for metropolitan regions using a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model. Bayesian model estimation is based on Gibbs sampling with Normal-Gamma shrinkage priors for the autoregressive coefficients and factor loadings, while monetary policy shocks are identified using high-frequency surprises around policy announcements as external instruments. The empirical results indicate that monetary policy actions typically have sizeable and significant positive effects on regional housing prices, revealing differences in magnitude and duration. The largest effects are observed in regions located in states on both the East and West Coasts, notably California, Arizona and Florida.

econ.EM↗