arXiv subjects

Manfred Schuessler

Publications and source records attributed to Manfred Schuessler.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2019

Solar activity: intrinsic periodicities beyond 11 years

Power spectra of solar activity based on historical records of sunspot numbers and on cosmogenic isotopes show peaks with enhanced power apart from the dominant 11-year solar cycle, such as the 90-year Gleissberg cycle or the 210-year de Vries cycle. In a previous paper we have shown that the overall shape of the power spectrum is well represented by the results of the generic normal form model for a noisy and weakly nonlinear limit cycle, with parameters all determined by observations. Using this model as a null case, we show here that all local peaks with enhanced power, apart from the 11-year band, are consistent with realisation noise. Even a $3σ$ peak is expected to occur with a probability of about 0.25 at least once among the 216 period bins resolved by the cosmogenic isotope data. This casts doubt upon interpretations of such peaks in terms of intrinsic periodicities of the solar dynamo process.

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arXiv2016

Solar cycle 25: another moderate cycle?

Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during the upcoming activity minimum together with a realistic uncertainty range. The expectation value for the dipole moment around 2020 $(2.5\pm1.1\,$G) is comparable to that observed at the end of cycle 23 (about $2\,$G). The empirical correlation between the dipole moment during solar minimum and the strength of the subsequent cycle thus suggests that cycle 25 will be of moderate amplitude, not much higher than that of the current cycle. However, the intrinsic uncertainty of such predictions resulting from the random scatter of the source properties is considerable and fundamentally limits the reliability with which such predictions can be made before activity minimum is reached.

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arXiv2015

The cause of the weak solar cycle 24

The ongoing 11-year cycle of solar activity is considerably less vigorous than the three cycles before. It was preceded by a very deep activity minimum with a low polar magnetic flux, the source of the toroidal field responsible for solar magnetic activity in the subsequent cycle. Simulation of the evolution of the solar surface field shows that the weak polar fields and thus the weakness of the present cycle 24 are mainly caused by a number of bigger bipolar regions emerging at low latitudes with a `wrong' (i.e., opposite to the majority for this cycle) orientation of their magnetic polarities in the North-South direction, which impaired the growth of the polar field. These regions had a particularly strong effect since they emerged within $\pm10^\circ$ latitude from the solar equator.

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arXiv2011

Decay of a simulated mixed-polarity magnetic field in the solar surface layers

Magnetic flux is continuously being removed and replenished on the solar surface. To understand the removal process we carried out 3D radiative MHD simulations of the evolution of patches of photospheric magnetic field with equal amounts of positive and negative flux. We find that the flux is removed at a rate corresponding to an effective turbulent diffusivity, of 100--340 km^2/s, depending on the boundary conditions. For average unsigned flux densities above about 70 Gauss, the percentage of surface magnetic energy coming from different field strengths is almost invariant. The overall process is then one where magnetic elements are advected by the horizontal granular motions and occasionally come into contact with opposite-polarity elements. These reconnect above the photosphere on a comparatively short time scale after which the U loops produced rapidly escape through the upper surface while the downward retraction of inverse-U loops is significantly slower, because of the higher inertia and lower plasma beta in the deeper layers.

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arXiv2011

Can overturning motions in penumbral filaments be detected?

Numerical simulations indicate that the filamentation of sunspot penumbrae and the associated systematic outflow (the Evershed effect) are due to convectively driven fluid motions constrained by the inclined magnetic field. We investigate whether these motions, in particular the upflows in the bright filaments and the downflows at their edges can be reliably observed with existing instrumentation. We use a snapshot from a sunspot simulation to calculate 2D maps of synthetic line profiles for the spectral lines Fe\sci 7090.4 Å~ and C\sci 5380.34 Å. The maps are spatially and spectrally degraded according to typical instrument properties. Line-of-sight velocities are determined from line bisector shifts. We find that the detectability of the convective flows is strongly affected by spatial smearing, particularly so for the downflows. Furthermore, the line-of-sight velocities are dominated by the Evershed flow unless the observation is made very near to disk center. These problems may have compromised recent attempts to detect overturning penumbral convection. Lines with a low formation height are best suited to detect the convective flows.

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arXiv2011

Can surface flux transport account for the weak polar field in cycle 23?

To reproduce the weak magnetic field on the polar caps of the Sun observed during the declining phase of cycle 23 poses a challenge to surface flux transport models since this cycle has not been particularly weak. We use a well-calibrated model to evaluate the parameter changes required to obtain simulated polar fields and open flux that are consistent with the observations. We find that the low polar field of cycle 23 could be reproduced by an increase of the meridional flow by 55% in the last cycle. Alternatively, a decrease of the mean tilt angle of sunspot groups by 28% would also lead to a similarly low polar field, but cause a delay of the polar field reversals by 1.5 years in comparison to the observations.

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arXiv2011

The solar magnetic field since 1700: I. Characteristics of sunspot group emergence and reconstruction of the butterfly diagram

We use the historic record of sunspot groups compiled by the Royal Greenwich Observatory together with the sunspot number to derive the statistical properties of sunspot group emergence in dependence of cycle phase and strength. In particular we discuss the latitude, longitude, area and tilt angle of sunspot groups as functions of the cycle strength and of time during the solar cycle. Using these empirical characteristics the time-latitude diagram of sunspot group emergence (butterfly diagram) is reconstructed from 1700 onward on the basis of the Wolf and group sunspot numbers. This reconstruction will be useful in studies of the long-term evolution of the Sun's magnetic field.

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arXiv2010

Turbulent small-scale dynamo action in solar surface simulations

We demonstrate that a magneto-convection simulation incorporating essential physical processes governing solar surface convection exhibits turbulent small-scale dynamo action. By presenting a derivation of the energy balance equation and transfer functions for compressible magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), we quantify the source of magnetic energy on a scale-by-scale basis. We rule out the two alternative mechanisms for the generation of small-scale magnetic field in the simulations: the tangling of magnetic field lines associated with the turbulent cascade and Alfvenization of small-scale velocity fluctuations ("turbulent induction"). Instead, we find the dominant source of small-scale magnetic energy is stretching by inertial-range fluid motions of small-scale magnetic field lines against the magnetic tension force to produce (against Ohmic dissipation) more small-scale magnetic field. The scales involved become smaller with increasing Reynolds number, which identifies the dynamo as a small-scale turbulent dynamo.

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arXiv2010

The small-scale solar surface dynamo

The existence of a turbulent small-scale solar surface dynamo is likely, considering existing numerical and laboratory experiments, as well as comparisons of a small-scale dynamo in MURaM simulations with Hinode observations. We find the observed peaked probability distribution function (PDF) from Stokes-V magnetograms is consistent with a monotonic PDF of the actual vertical field strength. The cancellation function of the vertical flux density from a Hinode SP observation is found to follow a self-similar power law over two decades in length scales down to the ~200 km resolution limit. This provides observational evidence that the scales of magnetic structuring in the photosphere extend at least down to 20 km. From the power law, we determine a lower bound for the true quiet-Sun mean vertical unsigned flux density of ~43 G, consistent with our numerically-based estimates that 80% or more of the vertical unsigned flux should be invisible to Stokes-V observations at a resolution of 200 km owing to cancellation. Our estimates significantly reduce the order-of-magnitude discrepancy between Zeeman- and Hanle-based estimates.

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arXiv2009

Turbulent magnetic fields in the quiet Sun: implications of Hinode observations and small-scale dynamo simulations

Using turbulent MHD simulations (magnetic Reynolds numbers up to 8000) and Hinode observations, we study effects of turbulence on measuring the solar magnetic field outside active regions. Firstly, from synthetic Stokes V profiles for the FeI lines at 630.1 and 630.2 nm, we show that a peaked probability distribution function (PDF) for observationally-derived field estimates is consistent with a monotonic PDF for actual vertical field strengths. Hence, the prevalence of weak fields is greater than would be naively inferred from observations. Secondly, we employ the fractal self-similar geometry of the turbulent solar magnetic field to derive two estimates (numerical and observational) of the true mean vertical unsigned flux density. We also find observational evidence that the scales of magnetic structuring in the photosphere extend at least down to an order of magnitude smaller than 200 km: the self-similar power-law scaling in the signed measure from a Hinode magnetogram ranges (over two decades in length scales and including the granulation scale) down to the 200 km resolution limit. From the self-similar scaling, we determine a lower bound for the true quiet-Sun mean vertical unsigned flux density of ~50 G. This is consistent with our numerically-based estimates that 80% or more of the vertical unsigned flux should be invisible to Stokes-V observations at a resolution of 200 km owing to the cancellation of signal from opposite magnetic polarities. Our estimates significantly reduce the order-of-magnitude discrepancy between Zeeman- and Hanle-based estimates.

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arXiv2007

Are solar cycles predictable?

Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels - with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided rather high correlations with the strength of the following cycles. Recently, data assimilation with an advection-dominated (flux-transport) dynamo model has been proposed as a predictive tool, yielding remarkably high correlation coefficients. After discussing the potential implications of these results and the criticism that has been raised, we study the possible physical origin(s) of the predictive skill provided by precursor and other methods. It is found that the combination of the overlap of solar cycles and their amplitude-dependent rise time (Waldmeier's rule) introduces correlations in the sunspot number (or area) record, which account for the predictive skill of many precursor methods. This explanation requires no direct physical relation between the precursor quantity and the dynamo mechanism (in the sense of the Babcock-Leighton scheme or otherwise).

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arXiv2007

Magnetic flux emergence in granular convection: Radiative MHD simulations and observational signatures

We study the emergence of magnetic flux from the near-surface layers of the solar convection zone into the photosphere. To model magnetic flux emergence, we carried out a set of numerical radiative magnetohydrodynamics simulations. Our simulations take into account the effects of compressibility, energy exchange via radiative transfer, and partial ionization in the equation of state. All these physical ingredients are essential for a proper treatment of the problem. Furthermore, the inclusion of radiative transfer allows us to directly compare the simulation results with actual observations of emerging flux. We find that the interaction between the magnetic flux tube and the external flow field has an important influence on the emergent morphology of the magnetic field. Depending on the initial properties of the flux tube (e.g. field strength, twist, entropy etc.), the emergence process can also modify the local granulation pattern. The emergence of magnetic flux tubes with a flux of $10^{19}$ Mx disturbs the granulation and leads to the transient appearance of a dark lane, which is coincident with upflowing material. These results are consistent with observed properties of emerging magnetic flux.

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arXiv2006

Magnetic flux transport on active cool stars and starspot lifetimes

We carry out numerical simulations of the surface evolution of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) and magnetic spots on stars, which have radii and surface rotational shears of AB Doradus, the Sun, and the HR 1099 primary. The surface flux transport model is based on the magnetic induction equation for radial fields under the effects of surface differential rotation, meridional flow, and turbulent diffusion due to convective flow patterns. We calculate the flux evolution and the lifetimes of BMRs and unipolar starspots, varying the emergence latitude, surface shear rate, and tilt angle. For BMRs comparable to the largest observed on the Sun, we find that varying the surface flows and the tilt angle modifies the lifetimes over a range of one month. For very large BMRs (area ~10% of the stellar surface) the assumption of a tilt angle increasing with latitude leads to a significant increase of lifetime, as compared to the case without tilt. Such regions can evolve to polar spots that live more than a year. Adopting the observed weak latitudinal shear and the radius of the active subgiant component of HR 1099, we find longer BMR lifetimes as compared to the more strongly sheared AB Dor case. Random emergence of six additional tilted bipoles in an activity belt at 60 degrees latitude enhanced the lifetimes of polar caps up to 7 years. We have also compared the evolution and lifetime of monolithic starspots with those of conglomerates of smaller spots of similar total area. We find similar decay patterns and lifetimes for both configurations.

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arXiv2005

Comments on the structure and dynamics of magnetic fields in stellar convection zones

This paper is a ``Habilitationsschrift'', a second thesis required until recently by universities in Germany and in a few other countries to obtain the right to lecture. It was accepted by the University of Goettingen in 1990 after review by a number of german and international experts. Although the introduction and the references represent the state of research in 1990, most of the remaining content is still relevant and has never been published elsewhere. The most important part is the derivation of a linear stability formalism for thin magnetic flux tubes following an arbitrary path in a gravitationally stratified medium with a stationary velocity. It was found later (Ferriz-Mas & Schuessler, Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn. vol. 72, 209; 1995) that, for consistency, the inertial term in the equation of motion for the external medium should be included in Eq. (3.24), which leads to an additional term in the stability equations in the case of a spatially varying external velocity. This term is missing in the present text, but can be easily introduced into the formalism. The full abstract can be found at the beginning of the paper.

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arXiv2005

Is there a phase constraint for solar dynamo models?

The spatio-temporal relationship between the sign of the observed radial component of the magnetic field at the solar surface and the sign of the toroidal field as inferred from Hale's polarity rules for sunspots is usually interpreted as signifying the phase relation between the poloidal and the toroidal magnetic field components involved in the solar dynamo process. This has been taken as a constraint for models of the solar dynamo. This note draws attention to the fact that the observed phase relation is naturally and inevitably produced by the emergence of tilted bipolar regions and flux transport through surface flows, without any necessity of recourse to the dynamo process. Consequently, there is no constraint on dynamo models resulting from the observed phase relation.

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arXiv2003

A Millennium Scale Sunspot Number Reconstruction: Evidence For an Unusually Active Sun Since the 1940's

The extension of the sunspot number series backward in time is of considerable interest for dynamo theory, solar, stellar, and climate research. We have used records of the Be-10 concentration in polar ice to reconstruct the average sunspot activity level for the period between the year 850 to the pr esent. Our method uses physical models for processes connecting the Be-10 concentration with the sunspot number. The reconstruction shows reliably that the period of high solar activity during the last 60 years is unique throughout the past 1150 years. This nearly triples the time interval for which such a statement could be made previously

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