arXiv subjects

Manolis Zampetakis

Publications and source records attributed to Manolis Zampetakis.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Smaller Confidence Intervals From IPW Estimators via Data-Dependent Coarsening

Inverse propensity-score weighted (IPW) estimators are prevalent in causal inference for estimating average treatment effects in observational studies. Under unconfoundedness, given accurate propensity scores and $n$ samples, the size of confidence intervals of IPW estimators scales down with $n$, and, several of their variants improve the rate of scaling. However, neither IPW estimators nor their variants are robust to inaccuracies: even if a single covariate has an $\varepsilon>0$ additive error in the propensity score, the size of confidence intervals of these estimators can increase arbitrarily. Moreover, even without errors, the rate with which the confidence intervals of these estimators go to zero with $n$ can be arbitrarily slow in the presence of extreme propensity scores (those close to 0 or 1). We introduce a family of Coarse IPW (CIPW) estimators that captures existing IPW estimators and their variants. Each CIPW estimator is an IPW estimator on a coarsened covariate space, where certain covariates are merged. Under mild assumptions, e.g., Lipschitzness in expected outcomes and sparsity of extreme propensity scores, we give an efficient algorithm to find a robust estimator: given $\varepsilon$-inaccurate propensity scores and $n$ samples, its confidence interval size scales with $\varepsilon+1/\sqrt{n}$. In contrast, under the same assumptions, existing estimators' confidence interval sizes are $Ω(1)$ irrespective of $\varepsilon$ and $n$. Crucially, our estimator is data-dependent and we show that no data-independent CIPW estimator can be robust to inaccuracies.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Hypercontractivity and factorial moment scaling in the symmetry broken phase

The search for remnants of the QCD chiral critical point is a central objective of current and future high-energy ion collision experiments. Previous studies suggest that a scaling law relating higher-order factorial moments of hadron multiplicity fluctuations to the second factorial moment could serve as a tool for detecting the QCD critical point. However, we demonstrate that this scaling law is not unique to critical phenomena. Instead, it emerges as a general property of distributions by extending the concept of hypercontractivity, originally applied to ordinary moments, to factorial moments. We present examples of distribution classes that exhibit the same higher-order factorial moment scaling as multiplicity fluctuations in the symmetry-broken phase. This insight allows us to explain the recent intermittency analysis results from the STAR experiment at RHIC (arXiv:2301.11062), where no indication of criticality was observed.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2024

The Computational Complexity of Finding Stationary Points in Non-Convex Optimization

Finding approximate stationary points, i.e., points where the gradient is approximately zero, of non-convex but smooth objective functions $f$ over unrestricted $d$-dimensional domains is one of the most fundamental problems in classical non-convex optimization. Nevertheless, the computational and query complexity of this problem are still not well understood when the dimension $d$ of the problem is independent of the approximation error. In this paper, we show the following computational and query complexity results: 1. The problem of finding approximate stationary points over unrestricted domains is PLS-complete. 2. For $d = 2$, we provide a zero-order algorithm for finding $\varepsilon$-approximate stationary points that requires at most $O(1/\varepsilon)$ value queries to the objective function. 3. We show that any algorithm needs at least $Ω(1/\varepsilon)$ queries to the objective function and/or its gradient to find $\varepsilon$-approximate stationary points when $d=2$. Combined with the above, this characterizes the query complexity of this problem to be $Θ(1/\varepsilon)$. 4. For $d = 2$, we provide a zero-order algorithm for finding $\varepsilon$-KKT points in constrained optimization problems that requires at most $O(1/\sqrt{\varepsilon})$ value queries to the objective function. This closes the gap between the works of Bubeck and Mikulincer [2020] and Vavasis [1993] and characterizes the query complexity of this problem to be $Θ(1/\sqrt{\varepsilon})$. 5. Combining our results with the recent result of Fearnley et al. [2022], we show that finding approximate KKT points in constrained optimization is reducible to finding approximate stationary points in unconstrained optimization but the converse is impossible.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Injecting Undetectable Backdoors in Obfuscated Neural Networks and Language Models

As ML models become increasingly complex and integral to high-stakes domains such as finance and healthcare, they also become more susceptible to sophisticated adversarial attacks. We investigate the threat posed by undetectable backdoors, as defined in Goldwasser et al. (FOCS '22), in models developed by insidious external expert firms. When such backdoors exist, they allow the designer of the model to sell information on how to slightly perturb their input to change the outcome of the model. We develop a general strategy to plant backdoors to obfuscated neural networks, that satisfy the security properties of the celebrated notion of indistinguishability obfuscation. Applying obfuscation before releasing neural networks is a strategy that is well motivated to protect sensitive information of the external expert firm. Our method to plant backdoors ensures that even if the weights and architecture of the obfuscated model are accessible, the existence of the backdoor is still undetectable. Finally, we introduce the notion of undetectable backdoors to language models and extend our neural network backdoor attacks to such models based on the existence of steganographic functions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Imperfect-Recall Games: Equilibrium Concepts and Their Complexity

We investigate optimal decision making under imperfect recall, that is, when an agent forgets information it once held before. An example is the absentminded driver game, as well as team games in which the members have limited communication capabilities. In the framework of extensive-form games with imperfect recall, we analyze the computational complexities of finding equilibria in multiplayer settings across three different solution concepts: Nash, multiselves based on evidential decision theory (EDT), and multiselves based on causal decision theory (CDT). We are interested in both exact and approximate solution computation. As special cases, we consider (1) single-player games, (2) two-player zero-sum games and relationships to maximin values, and (3) games without exogenous stochasticity (chance nodes). We relate these problems to the complexity classes P, PPAD, PLS, $Σ_2^P$ , $\exists$R, and $\exists \forall$R.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Transfer Learning Beyond Bounded Density Ratios

We study the fundamental problem of transfer learning where a learning algorithm collects data from some source distribution $P$ but needs to perform well with respect to a different target distribution $Q$. A standard change of measure argument implies that transfer learning happens when the density ratio $dQ/dP$ is bounded. Yet, prior thought-provoking works by Kpotufe and Martinet (COLT, 2018) and Hanneke and Kpotufe (NeurIPS, 2019) demonstrate cases where the ratio $dQ/dP$ is unbounded, but transfer learning is possible. In this work, we focus on transfer learning over the class of low-degree polynomial estimators. Our main result is a general transfer inequality over the domain $\mathbb{R}^n$, proving that non-trivial transfer learning for low-degree polynomials is possible under very mild assumptions, going well beyond the classical assumption that $dQ/dP$ is bounded. For instance, it always applies if $Q$ is a log-concave measure and the inverse ratio $dP/dQ$ is bounded. To demonstrate the applicability of our inequality, we obtain new results in the settings of: (1) the classical truncated regression setting, where $dQ/dP$ equals infinity, and (2) the more recent out-of-distribution generalization setting for in-context learning linear functions with transformers. We also provide a discrete analogue of our transfer inequality on the Boolean Hypercube $\{-1,1\}^n$, and study its connections with the recent problem of Generalization on the Unseen of Abbe, Bengio, Lotfi and Rizk (ICML, 2023). Our main conceptual contribution is that the maximum influence of the error of the estimator $\widehat{f}-f^*$ under $Q$, $\mathrm{I}_{\max}(\widehat{f}-f^*)$, acts as a sufficient condition for transferability; when $\mathrm{I}_{\max}(\widehat{f}-f^*)$ is appropriately bounded, transfer is possible over the Boolean domain.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Algorithmic Contract Design for Crowdsourced Ranking

Ranking is fundamental to many areas, such as search engine optimization, human feedback for language models, as well as peer grading. Crowdsourcing, which is often used for these tasks, requires proper incentivization to ensure accurate inputs. In this work, we draw on the field of \emph{contract theory} from Economics to propose a novel mechanism that enables a \emph{principal} to accurately rank a set of items by incentivizing agents to provide pairwise comparisons of the items. Our mechanism implements these incentives by verifying a subset of each agent's comparisons, a task we assume to be costly. The agent is compensated (for example, monetarily or with class credit) based on the accuracy of these comparisons. Our mechanism achieves the following guarantees: (1) it only requires the principal to verify $O(\log s)$ comparisons, where $s$ is the total number of agents, and (2) it provably achieves higher total utility for the principal compared to ranking the items herself with no crowdsourcing.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2023

On the Complexity of Computing Sparse Equilibria and Lower Bounds for No-Regret Learning in Games

Characterizing the performance of no-regret dynamics in multi-player games is a foundational problem at the interface of online learning and game theory. Recent results have revealed that when all players adopt specific learning algorithms, it is possible to improve exponentially over what is predicted by the overly pessimistic no-regret framework in the traditional adversarial regime, thereby leading to faster convergence to the set of coarse correlated equilibria (CCE). Yet, despite considerable recent progress, the fundamental complexity barriers for learning in normal- and extensive-form games are poorly understood. In this paper, we make a step towards closing this gap by first showing that -- barring major complexity breakthroughs -- any polynomial-time learning algorithms in extensive-form games need at least $2^{\log^{1/2 - o(1)} |\mathcal{T}|}$ iterations for the average regret to reach below even an absolute constant, where $|\mathcal{T}|$ is the number of nodes in the game. This establishes a superpolynomial separation between no-regret learning in normal- and extensive-form games, as in the former class a logarithmic number of iterations suffices to achieve constant average regret. Furthermore, our results imply that algorithms such as multiplicative weights update, as well as its \emph{optimistic} counterpart, require at least $2^{(\log \log m)^{1/2 - o(1)}}$ iterations to attain an $O(1)$-CCE in $m$-action normal-form games. These are the first non-trivial -- and dimension-dependent -- lower bounds in that setting for the most well-studied algorithms in the literature. From a technical standpoint, we follow a beautiful connection recently made by Foster, Golowich, and Kakade (ICML '23) between sparse CCE and Nash equilibria in the context of Markov games. Consequently, our lower bounds rule out polynomial-time algorithms well beyond the traditional online learning framework.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2023

Sorting from Crowdsourced Comparisons using Expert Verifications

We introduce a novel noisy sorting model motivated by the Just Noticeable Difference (JND) model from experimental psychology. The goal of our model is to capture the low quality of the data that are collected from crowdsourcing environments. Compared to other celebrated models of noisy sorting, our model does not rely on precise data-generation assumptions and captures crowdsourced tasks' varying levels of difficulty that can lead to different amounts of noise in the data. To handle this challenging task, we assume we can verify some of the collected data using expert advice. This verification procedure is costly; hence, we aim to minimize the number of verifications we use. We propose a new efficient algorithm called CandidateSort, which we prove uses the optimal number of verifications in the noisy sorting models we consider. We characterize this optimal number of verifications by showing that it is linear in a parameter $k$, which intuitively measures the maximum number of comparisons that are wrong but not inconsistent in the crowdsourcing data.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2023

Last-Iterate Convergence of Saddle-Point Optimizers via High-Resolution Differential Equations

Several widely-used first-order saddle-point optimization methods yield an identical continuous-time ordinary differential equation (ODE) that is identical to that of the Gradient Descent Ascent (GDA) method when derived naively. However, the convergence properties of these methods are qualitatively different, even on simple bilinear games. Thus the ODE perspective, which has proved powerful in analyzing single-objective optimization methods, has not played a similar role in saddle-point optimization. We adopt a framework studied in fluid dynamics -- known as High-Resolution Differential Equations (HRDEs) -- to design differential equation models for several saddle-point optimization methods. Critically, these HRDEs are distinct for various saddle-point optimization methods. Moreover, in bilinear games, the convergence properties of the HRDEs match the qualitative features of the corresponding discrete methods. Additionally, we show that the HRDE of Optimistic Gradient Descent Ascent (OGDA) exhibits \emph{last-iterate convergence} for general monotone variational inequalities. Finally, we provide rates of convergence for the \emph{best-iterate convergence} of the OGDA method, relying solely on the first-order smoothness of the monotone operator.

math.OC↗

arXiv2023

The Computational Complexity of Multi-player Concave Games and Kakutani Fixed Points

Kakutani's Fixed Point theorem is a fundamental theorem in topology with numerous applications in game theory and economics. Computational formulations of Kakutani exist only in special cases and are too restrictive to be useful in reductions. In this paper, we provide a general computational formulation of Kakutani's Fixed Point Theorem and we prove that it is PPAD-complete. As an application of our theorem we are able to characterize the computational complexity of the following fundamental problems: (1) Concave Games. Introduced by the celebrated works of Debreu and Rosen in the 1950s and 60s, concave $n$-person games have found many important applications in Economics and Game Theory. We characterize the computational complexity of finding an equilibrium in such games. We show that a general formulation of this problem belongs to PPAD, and that finding an equilibrium is PPAD-hard even for a rather restricted games of this kind: strongly-concave utilities that can be expressed as multivariate polynomials of a constant degree with axis aligned box constraints. (2) Walrasian Equilibrium. Using Kakutani's fixed point Arrow and Debreu we resolve an open problem related to Walras's theorem on the existence of price equilibria in general economies. There are many results about the PPAD-hardness of Walrasian equilibria, but the inclusion in PPAD is only known for piecewise linear utilities. We show that the problem with general convex utilities is in PPAD. Along the way we provide a Lipschitz continuous version of Berge's maximum theorem that may be of independent interest.

cs.CC↗

arXiv2023

Consensus-Halving: Does It Ever Get Easier?

In the $\varepsilon$-Consensus-Halving problem, a fundamental problem in fair division, there are $n$ agents with valuations over the interval $[0,1]$, and the goal is to divide the interval into pieces and assign a label "$+$" or "$-$" to each piece, such that every agent values the total amount of "$+$" and the total amount of "$-$" almost equally. The problem was recently proven by Filos-Ratsikas and Goldberg [2019] to be the first "natural" complete problem for the computational class PPA, answering a decade-old open question. In this paper, we examine the extent to which the problem becomes easy to solve, if one restricts the class of valuation functions. To this end, we provide the following contributions. First, we obtain a strengthening of the PPA-hardness result of [Filos-Ratsikas and Goldberg, 2019], to the case when agents have piecewise uniform valuations with only two blocks. We obtain this result via a new reduction, which is in fact conceptually much simpler than the corresponding one in [Filos-Ratsikas and Goldberg, 2019]. Then, we consider the case of single-block (uniform) valuations and provide a parameterized polynomial time algorithm for solving $\varepsilon$-Consensus-Halving for any $\varepsilon$, as well as a polynomial-time algorithm for $\varepsilon=1/2$. Finally, an important application of our new techniques is the first hardness result for a generalization of Consensus-Halving, the Consensus-$1/k$-Division problem [Simmons and Su, 2003]. In particular, we prove that $\varepsilon$-Consensus-$1/3$-Division is PPAD-hard.

cs.CC↗

arXiv2023

First-Order Algorithms for Nonlinear Generalized Nash Equilibrium Problems

We consider the problem of computing an equilibrium in a class of \textit{nonlinear generalized Nash equilibrium problems (NGNEPs)} in which the strategy sets for each player are defined by equality and inequality constraints that may depend on the choices of rival players. While the asymptotic global convergence and local convergence rates of algorithms to solve this problem have been extensively investigated, the analysis of nonasymptotic iteration complexity is still in its infancy. This paper presents two first-order algorithms -- based on the quadratic penalty method (QPM) and augmented Lagrangian method (ALM), respectively -- with an accelerated mirror-prox algorithm as the solver in each inner loop. We establish a global convergence guarantee for solving monotone and strongly monotone NGNEPs and provide nonasymptotic complexity bounds expressed in terms of the number of gradient evaluations. Experimental results demonstrate the efficiency of our algorithms in practice.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

What Makes A Good Fisherman? Linear Regression under Self-Selection Bias

In the classical setting of self-selection, the goal is to learn $k$ models, simultaneously from observations $(x^{(i)}, y^{(i)})$ where $y^{(i)}$ is the output of one of $k$ underlying models on input $x^{(i)}$. In contrast to mixture models, where we observe the output of a randomly selected model, here the observed model depends on the outputs themselves, and is determined by some known selection criterion. For example, we might observe the highest output, the smallest output, or the median output of the $k$ models. In known-index self-selection, the identity of the observed model output is observable; in unknown-index self-selection, it is not. Self-selection has a long history in Econometrics and applications in various theoretical and applied fields, including treatment effect estimation, imitation learning, learning from strategically reported data, and learning from markets at disequilibrium. In this work, we present the first computationally and statistically efficient estimation algorithms for the most standard setting of this problem where the models are linear. In the known-index case, we require poly$(1/\varepsilon, k, d)$ sample and time complexity to estimate all model parameters to accuracy $\varepsilon$ in $d$ dimensions, and can accommodate quite general selection criteria. In the more challenging unknown-index case, even the identifiability of the linear models (from infinitely many samples) was not known. We show three results in this case for the commonly studied $\max$ self-selection criterion: (1) we show that the linear models are indeed identifiable, (2) for general $k$ we provide an algorithm with poly$(d) \exp(\text{poly}(k))$ sample and time complexity to estimate the regression parameters up to error $1/\text{poly}(k)$, and (3) for $k = 2$ we provide an algorithm for any error $\varepsilon$ and poly$(d, 1/\varepsilon)$ sample and time complexity.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

On the Complexity of Deterministic Nonsmooth and Nonconvex Optimization

In this paper, we present several new results on minimizing a nonsmooth and nonconvex function under a Lipschitz condition. Recent work shows that while the classical notion of Clarke stationarity is computationally intractable up to some sufficiently small constant tolerance, the randomized first-order algorithms find a $(δ, ε)$-Goldstein stationary point with the complexity bound of $\tilde{O}(δ^{-1}ε^{-3})$, which is independent of dimension $d \geq 1$~\citep{Zhang-2020-Complexity, Davis-2022-Gradient, Tian-2022-Finite}. However, the deterministic algorithms have not been fully explored, leaving open several problems in nonsmooth nonconvex optimization. Our first contribution is to demonstrate that the randomization is \textit{necessary} to obtain a dimension-independent guarantee, by proving a lower bound of $Ω(d)$ for any deterministic algorithm that has access to both $1^{st}$ and $0^{th}$ oracles. Furthermore, we show that the $0^{th}$ oracle is \textit{essential} to obtain a finite-time convergence guarantee, by showing that any deterministic algorithm with only the $1^{st}$ oracle is not able to find an approximate Goldstein stationary point within a finite number of iterations up to sufficiently small constant parameter and tolerance. Finally, we propose a deterministic smoothing approach under the \textit{arithmetic circuit} model where the resulting smoothness parameter is exponential in a certain parameter $M > 0$ (e.g., the number of nodes in the representation of the function), and design a new deterministic first-order algorithm that achieves a dimension-independent complexity bound of $\tilde{O}(Mδ^{-1}ε^{-3})$.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Learning and Covering Sums of Independent Random Variables with Unbounded Support

We study the problem of covering and learning sums $X = X_1 + \cdots + X_n$ of independent integer-valued random variables $X_i$ (SIIRVs) with unbounded, or even infinite, support. De et al. at FOCS 2018, showed that the maximum value of the collective support of $X_i$'s necessarily appears in the sample complexity of learning $X$. In this work, we address two questions: (i) Are there general families of SIIRVs with unbounded support that can be learned with sample complexity independent of both $n$ and the maximal element of the support? (ii) Are there general families of SIIRVs with unbounded support that admit proper sparse covers in total variation distance? As for question (i), we provide a set of simple conditions that allow the unbounded SIIRV to be learned with complexity $\text{poly}(1/ε)$ bypassing the aforementioned lower bound. We further address question (ii) in the general setting where each variable $X_i$ has unimodal probability mass function and is a different member of some, possibly multi-parameter, exponential family $\mathcal{E}$ that satisfies some structural properties. These properties allow $\mathcal{E}$ to contain heavy tailed and non log-concave distributions. Moreover, we show that for every $ε> 0$, and every $k$-parameter family $\mathcal{E}$ that satisfies some structural assumptions, there exists an algorithm with $\tilde{O}(k) \cdot \text{poly}(1/ε)$ samples that learns a sum of $n$ arbitrary members of $\mathcal{E}$ within $ε$ in TV distance. The output of the learning algorithm is also a sum of random variables whose distribution lies in the family $\mathcal{E}$. En route, we prove that any discrete unimodal exponential family with bounded constant-degree central moments can be approximated by the family corresponding to a bounded subset of the initial (unbounded) parameter space.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

STay-ON-the-Ridge: Guaranteed Convergence to Local Minimax Equilibrium in Nonconvex-Nonconcave Games

Min-max optimization problems involving nonconvex-nonconcave objectives have found important applications in adversarial training and other multi-agent learning settings. Yet, no known gradient descent-based method is guaranteed to converge to (even local notions of) min-max equilibrium in the nonconvex-nonconcave setting. For all known methods, there exist relatively simple objectives for which they cycle or exhibit other undesirable behavior different from converging to a point, let alone to some game-theoretically meaningful one~\cite{flokas2019poincare,hsieh2021limits}. The only known convergence guarantees hold under the strong assumption that the initialization is very close to a local min-max equilibrium~\cite{wang2019solving}. Moreover, the afore-described challenges are not just theoretical curiosities. All known methods are unstable in practice, even in simple settings. We propose the first method that is guaranteed to converge to a local min-max equilibrium for smooth nonconvex-nonconcave objectives. Our method is second-order and provably escapes limit cycles as long as it is initialized at an easy-to-find initial point. Both the definition of our method and its convergence analysis are motivated by the topological nature of the problem. In particular, our method is not designed to decrease some potential function, such as the distance of its iterate from the set of local min-max equilibria or the projected gradient of the objective, but is designed to satisfy a topological property that guarantees the avoidance of cycles and implies its convergence.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Efficient Truncated Linear Regression with Unknown Noise Variance

Truncated linear regression is a classical challenge in Statistics, wherein a label, $y = w^T x + \varepsilon$, and its corresponding feature vector, $x \in \mathbb{R}^k$, are only observed if the label falls in some subset $S \subseteq \mathbb{R}$; otherwise the existence of the pair $(x, y)$ is hidden from observation. Linear regression with truncated observations has remained a challenge, in its general form, since the early works of~\citet{tobin1958estimation,amemiya1973regression}. When the distribution of the error is normal with known variance, recent work of~\citet{daskalakis2019truncatedregression} provides computationally and statistically efficient estimators of the linear model, $w$. In this paper, we provide the first computationally and statistically efficient estimators for truncated linear regression when the noise variance is unknown, estimating both the linear model and the variance of the noise. Our estimator is based on an efficient implementation of Projected Stochastic Gradient Descent on the negative log-likelihood of the truncated sample. Importantly, we show that the error of our estimates is asymptotically normal, and we use this to provide explicit confidence regions for our estimates.

stat.ME↗