arXiv subjects

Mansi M. Kasliwal

Publications and source records attributed to Mansi M. Kasliwal.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

X-ray Through Radio Observations and Modeling of the Soft X-ray Flash GRB 250419A

Soft X-ray flashes (XRFs) are predicted from a variety of hypothesized phenomena, including "dirty fireballs" (relativistic jets with significant baryon loading), and gamma-ray bursts viewed marginally off-axis. For a given burst, detailed multiwavelength observations are necessary for distinguishing between possible progenitor scenarios, but the number of XRFs with such data remains small. Here we present X-ray, optical, and radio (mm to cm) data of GRB 250419A, an XRF (with peak energy $E_p<4\,$keV) discovered by the Space-based multi-band astronomical Variable Objects Monitor. We observe a clear achromatic break in the X-ray and optical bands, and likely two spectral components in the radio emission. The afterglow is similar to the long-duration gamma-ray burst population, but slightly underluminous, and the optical afterglow has an unusually shallow decay phase at $\lesssim2\,$d. We find that the event is well explained by a high-Lorentz factor jet with low kinetic energy ($E\sim10^{49}$-$10^{50}\,$erg), with energy injection that could arise from radial stratification and/or the jet being viewed marginally off-axis. We conclude that at least some X-ray flashes are an extension of classical gamma-ray bursts down to lower energies.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

An Off-Nuclear Tidal Disruption Event Discovered At Late Times: The Case Of TDE 2023mfm

We present the discovery and analysis of the optically selected tidal disruption event (TDE) 2023mfm, which originates from a wandering massive black hole (MBH) in a massive ($\sim 10^{11} \,$M$_{\odot}$) galaxy hosting a central low-luminosity active galactic nucleus (AGN). Our analysis of the ZTF, Lick, Keck, Swift, Chandra, XMM-Newton, HST, and VLA observations reveals that TDE 2023mfm is a TDE-H from a $10^{6.2 \pm 0.5}\,$M$_{\odot}$ black hole which is offset by $0.66 \pm 0.02$" from the center of its host galaxy, corresponding to a projected distance of $1.08 \pm 0.04$ kpc. TDE 2023mfm displays all the traits of optically selected TDEs. The emission remains hot, $T_{\rm bb} \sim 22,000 \pm 1,000$ K, for more than a month after peak, and the $g$-band light curve peaks at $\left( 2.24^{+0.10} _{-0.11} \right) \times 10^{43} \, \rm erg \, s^{-1}$ and stays above half-maximum luminosity for $47.8^{+3.7}_{-3.5}$ days. The late-time optical-to-UV emission observed with the HST suggests the presence of an unresolved stellar population with a stellar mass of $10^7-10^8\,$M$_{\odot}$ at the position of the TDE, possibly being a low-mass dwarf galaxy or a stripped galaxy from a previous minor merger. The radio emission from TDE 2023mfm emerges at least a year after optical discovery, and we find it likely that it originates from a delayed outflow, however, further observations are needed to determine its true origin.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

First Pre-peak Ultraviolet Spectrum of a Tidal Disruption Event: A Fast Outflow Revealed Prior to Maximum Light in TDE2025aarm

The tidal disruption and eventual accretion of a star by a massive black hole can lead to the launching of outflows and winds that encode important information about the tidal disruption and accretion processes. However, little is known about the existence and behavior of these outflows before optical light-curve peak, when processes such as stream-stream collisions and disk formation may be important. Here, we present the first pre-peak ultraviolet (UV) spectrum of a tidal disruption event (TDE), obtained $\sim 20$ days before optical maximum light of the nearby (redshift $z=0.0137$) TDE2025aarm, along with quasi-simultaneous infrared (IR) through X-ray observations. Our HST/STIS spectrum shows strong evidence for an early-time outflow through broad near-UV (NUV) and far-UV (FUV) absorption lines blueshifted by $\sim$10,000 km s$^{-1}$, including two new UV broad absorption features not yet identified in a TDE. We find that the FUV--IR continuum deviates significantly from a blackbody ($f_λ\propto λ^{-3.08}$), which we interpret as a signature of reprocessing through the outflow. This deviation implies that the bolometric luminosity in optical TDEs may be underestimated by a significant factor ($\sim$9 in this case) when inferred from single-temperature blackbody fits to NUV--optical photometry alone. This work further confirms that TDEs are capable of launching fast outflows at very early times and emphasizes the importance of prompt FUV spectroscopic observations of TDEs that can capture the full continuum emission and energetics.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

AppleCiDEr. II. SpectraNet: A Spectroscopic Neural Network Classifier for Transients Demonstrated on ZTF Follow-up Data

Time-domain surveys such as the Zwicky Transient Facility have opened a new frontier in the discovery and characterization of transients. While photometric light curves provide broad temporal coverage, spectroscopic observations remain crucial for physical interpretation and source classification. However, existing spectral analysis methods, often reliant on template fitting or parametric models, are limited in their ability to capture the complex and evolving spectra characteristic of such sources, which are sometimes only available at low resolution. In this work, we introduce SpectraNet, a deep convolutional neural network designed to learn robust representations of optical spectra from transients. Our model combines multi-scale convolution kernels and pooling operations to extract features from preprocessed spectra in a hierarchical and interpretable manner. We train and validate SpectraNet on low-resolution time-series spectra obtained from the Spectral Energy Distribution Machine and other instruments, demonstrating better performance in classification compared to other known pipelines.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Late-Time Evolution of the Massive Stellar Merger M101 OT2015-1

Luminous red novae (LRNe) are astronomical transients arising from unstable mass transfer and common envelope phases in close binary systems, culminating in stellar mergers. Their cold, expanding ejecta provide the ideal conditions for molecule and dust formation. We investigate the late-time dust and molecular evolution of the LRN M101 OT2015-1, a high-mass LRN progenitor ($18\pm 1$M$_\odot$), using multi-band near-infrared (NIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) observations spanning up to ~5 years post-outburst. Archival and unpublished photometry from NEOWISE, Spitzer, Keck NIRC2 and MOSFIRE, are interpolated via 2D Gaussian process regression. Spectral energy distributions (SEDs) are modelled with 1D spherical radiative transfer models to track the evolution of dust mass, dust temperature, and central source properties. At +150d post-peak, the SED is well-fit by a pure stellar blackbody ($T_{\rm eff}=3330$K) with negligible dust (log$M_{\rm dust}/$M$_\odot<-6.36$). Rapid dust condensation begins around day +200 ($T_{\rm dust}=1591$K), with dust mass increasing to log$M_{\rm dust}/$M$_\odot =-3.65$ and optical depth reaching $τ_V =64$ by +1300d. A prominent NIR re-brightening at ~600d ($M_K=-12.04$), accompanied by a dust reheating bump ($T_{\rm dust}=1567$K), highlights a second phase of dust nucleation likely driven by shock interactions. Low-resolution NIR MOSFIRE spectra are analysed for line identification and also using an LTE isothermal slab model to characterise CO molecular features. The MOSFIRE spectra reveal an O-rich environment with photospheric expansion velocities of ~$430-530$km s$^{-1}$, as measured in the Pa$β$ emission line, and high CO column densities (log$N_{\rm CO}$/cm$^{-2}=20.9$ and $20.7$ at +142d and +197d, respectively). These results confirm that LRNe from massive progenitors are prolific producers of cosmic dust and are efficient molecular factories.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

A data processing pipeline for the WINTER near-infrared surveyor using the $\texttt{mirar}$ framework

We present the data reduction and transient detection pipeline for the Wide-field Infrared Transient Explorer (WINTER) surveyor and report its on-sky performance. The WINTER camera utilizes cost-effective InGaAs sensors as alternatives to traditional IR sensors, and is mounted on a dedicated 1-m robotic telescope at Palomar Observatory. The WINTER camera has six detectors producing a combined field-of-view of 1.2 sq. deg. equipped with y, J, and shortened-H bands. WINTER saw first light in June 2023 and has been operating robotically since. The WINTER data processing pipeline ($\texttt{winterdrp}$) has been implemented within the broader framework $\texttt{mirar}$: a modular, open-source $\texttt{python}$ package developed for realtime processing of images from time-domain surveys. $\texttt{winterdrp}$ performs end-to-end data processing implementing data reduction and image subtraction to go from raw dithered WINTER images to transient alerts in the $\texttt{avro}$ format, which are then sent to $\texttt{SkyPortal}$ for vetting and follow-up. During a year of observations in 2024, WINTER achieved J-band median 5-$σ$ depths ranging from $18.1-18.8$ mag (AB) on its six detectors in 960 second integrations as part of its survey, with an astrometric accuracy of $\approx0.2$ arcsec (a fifth of a pixel) and a detector-performance limited photometric accuracy ranging from $\approx0.09-0.18$ mag for its six detectors. We present early science results from WINTER, which include the identification of a stellar merger in M31, dust-enshrouded outbursting young stellar objects and classical novae in the Galactic plane, NIR followup of known supernovae, and multi-messenger follow-up of neutrinos, gravitational waves, fast X-ray transients and gamma-ray bursts.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

SPIRITS 19q: Dust Production by a Subsolar-metallicity Carbon-rich Wolf-Rayet Star in NGC 2403

We present JWST/NIRSpec IFU observations of SPIRITS 19q, the highly dust-producing carbon-rich (WC) binary candidate located in a subsolar-metallicity region of the nearby spiral galaxy NGC 2403. The observations, taken in April of 2024, confirm the association of a dusty outburst observed in 2019 by the Spitzer Space Telescope with an early-type WC star. Using models from the Potsdam Wolf-Rayet (PoWR) LMC model grid we find that the WC star of SPIRITS 19q likely has an especially high mass-loss rate ($\gtrsim$ 10$^{-4}$ $M_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$). From the flux peak of the IR transient as measured by Spitzer/IRAC as well as constraints on dust composition and size from the JWST spectrum, we estimate a total dust mass formed in the outburst of 6.6 $\pm$ 0.4 $\times$ 10$^{-6}$ $M_{\odot}$. Assuming a minimum orbital period of 12 years, this corresponds to a period-averaged dust production rate of $\lesssim$ 5.5 $\times$ 10$^{-7}$ $M_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$. These observations suggest that even a single WC system can contribute to the dust budget at subsolar metallicities, and that such systems are an important source of carbonaceous dust grains in the early universe.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Follow-up of SN 2025wny I: Space-based Observations of the First Multiply-imaged Superluminous Supernova

We present space-based follow-up observations of the superluminous Type I supernova (SLSN-I) SN 2025wny at redshift $z_{SN}=2.0151$, gravitationally lensed by two galaxies at redshifts $z_{G1}=0.3755$ and $z_{G2}=0.3766$ into five resolved images. SN 2025wny is the first strongly lensed SLSN discovered and the first galaxy-scale lensed supernova for which both photometric and spectroscopic time-delay measurements are feasible. As such, it opens a new observational window for precision cosmology and the study of stellar explosions near the epoch of peak cosmic star formation. Our follow-up observations comprise two epochs of Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging, together with near-infrared imaging and spectroscopy obtained with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). From these data, we measure precise astrometry and multi-band photometry for the five resolved supernova images, the host galaxy, and the two deflecting galaxies. HST provides accurate relative image positions and rest-frame ultraviolet photometry, while JWST delivers complementary near-infrared imaging and spectroscopy probing the rest-frame optical at high signal-to-noise ratio. Together they yield a detailed characterization of both the lensing configuration and the supernova spectral energy distribution over a broad wavelength range. The data presented here provide the observational foundation for the accompanying analyses of the supernova properties, lens modeling, and time-delay cosmography, including the astrometric, photometric, and spectroscopic information required to measure $H_0$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Follow-up of SN 2025wny II: Superluminous Supernova Physics at Cosmic Noon

SN 2025wny is a gravitationally lensed, hydrogen-poor superluminous supernova (SLSN-I) at z = 2.015. To date, it is the most extensively observed high-redshift core-collapse SN and has the most detailed rest-frame UV observations of any SLSN. We present densely sampled rest-frame UV-to-optical photometry and spectroscopy out to +80 d post-peak (rest frame) from several facilities, including JWST, Keck, VLT, Gemini, the Palomar 200-inch, the Fraunhofer Telescope at Wendelstein, and the Liverpool Telescope. Correcting for lensing magnification, SN 2025wny reaches a peak pseudo-bolometric luminosity of $L_{\rm peak}\gtrsim4\times10^{44}$ erg s$^{-1}$ over rest-frame 1500-4230 Å, placing it within the luminosity range of typical SLSNe-I. SN 2025wny exhibits several unusual features, including a continuum excess and sharp spectral features in the FUV from +20-60 d that coincide with an FUV light-curve plateau and higher inferred blackbody temperatures. SN 2025wny's spectra also show little to no UV line blanketing, no obvious O II absorption despite high temperatures, and evidence for C II, H$α$, and possible He I. Light-curve modeling suggests that SN 2025wny may require a hybrid or non-standard power source. This work provides some of the first detailed constraints on high-redshift SLSNe and establishes SN 2025wny as an essential spectral and photometric reference for identifying and interpreting high-redshift SLSNe discovered by Rubin and Roman.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Follow-up of SN 2025wny III: Spectroscopic Time-delay Measurements of a Strongly Gravitationally Lensed Superluminous Supernova

We present spatially resolved spectra and infer the time-delays between the multiple images of the strongly gravitationally lensed superluminous supernova (SLSN) 2025wny at z=2.015. SN 2025wny is the first known spatially resolved strongly lensed SLSN and provides a unique opportunity to measure lensing delays through the temporal evolution of supernova spectra. We present a spectroscopic dataset spanning several months, including spatially resolved spectra of images A, B, C, D, and E. We identify and measure the wavelength evolution of spectral features using Gaussian-process modeling. The time delays are inferred by jointly fitting the temporal evolution of the spectral features, yielding $Δt_{AB}=-10.3 \pm 2.3$, $Δt_{AC}=0.1 \pm 3.6$, $Δt_{AD}=-65.7 \pm 3.5$, and $Δt_{AE}=3.7 \pm 8.8$ days (68% confidence intervals). These are the among most precise time-delay measurements obtained for a lensed supernova to date, whether from spectroscopic or photometric methods. The longest delay ($Δt_{AD}$) is particularly well constrained, with a ~5% precision. Combined with the lens model presented by Mörtsell et al. (2026), the spectroscopic time-delays give a Hubble constant $H_0 = 70.2^{+8.2}_{-6.1}$ km/s/Mpc. Our analysis demonstrates that spectroscopic evolution provides an independent and complementary route to time-delay measurements in lensed supernova systems, avoiding reliance on photometric light curves alone. As future surveys discover larger samples of lensed supernovae, spectroscopic time-delay measurements will provide an important avenue for precision cosmography.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Follow-up of SN 2025wny IV: Photometric Time-delay Measurements of a Strongly Lensed Superluminous Supernova

We present photometric time-delay measurements of SN 2025wny, the first strongly lensed Type I superluminous supernova (SLSN-I), discovered at $z = 2.015$. Time-delay measurements from strongly lensed supernovae provide an independent probe of cosmology and the Hubble constant, $H_0$, without reliance on the local distance ladder. Using multi-facility imaging data, we performed scene-modelling photometry to deblend four of the lensed images (A-D) and construct $grizJ$-band light curves. We modelled the resolved light curves with Gaussian process regression using GausSN (Hayes et al. 2024) to infer relative time delays and magnifications between the lensed images. We found that a constant magnification model provides a suboptimal description of the data, motivating a time-dependent sigmoid magnification model to account for evolving relative magnification of image A. We measured time delays of $Δt_{AB} = -10.6^{+2.2}_{-2.5}$ days and $Δt_{AC} = 1.2^{+2.7}_{-2.6}$ days (68% credible intervals), consistent with independent spectroscopic measurements from Johansson et al. (2026). Combining the photometric time delays with the lens model of Mörtsell et al. (2026) gives $H_{0,\:\rm photo} = 80.5^{+26.4}_{-16.7}\;\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}$, while including the spectroscopic time delays as well yields $H_{0,\:\rm comb} = 70.8^{+8.2}_{-6.1}\;{\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$. Our results further demonstrate the potential of strongly lensed supernovae as independent probes of $H_0$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

The Cross-Survey Decade: A Call to Action

By 2027, three flagship wide-field surveys will be operating simultaneously from ground and space, observing overlapping sky and representing more than $6 billion in US and European public investment. Together they will produce overlapping petabyte-scale datasets across thousands of square degrees. This is a different class of challenge: the observations are no longer the bottleneck; realizing their joint scientific return now depends on shared computational infrastructure and coordination. Decades of community studies show that combining these datasets does more than improve precision. For science ranging from weak lensing to transient discovery and Galactic-plane astronomy, joint processing and analysis can unlock capabilities no single survey provides alone. Yet the required infrastructure -- joint pixel-level processing, cross-calibration and validation, interoperable data access, and the people to build and sustain it -- falls outside any single mission or institution's mandate. We issue a call to action for cross-survey science infrastructure, built around four pillars: (1) joint pixel-level processing and validation; (2) an AI-ready data substrate for scientific foundation models; (3) standardized, interoperable data access across surveys, democratizing participation in astrophysical discovery; and (4) dedicated personnel and career pathways. We outline concrete steps for policymakers, agencies, observatories, universities, the research community, and philanthropy, and argue that the moment to act is now, while foundational technical choices can still be aligned at a fraction of the cost of reconciling them later.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

ZTF SN Ia DR2 follow-up: early excess in Type Ia supernova light curves

There is broad consensus that Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are the thermonuclear explosions of C/O white dwarfs (WDs) in binary systems, but their progenitors and explosion mechanisms remain uncertain. Their earliest light curves probe the outermost ejecta and provide important constraints on the explosion. We analyse the ZTF DR2 sample of SNe Ia to search for objects exhibiting early flux excess (EEx SNe Ia). We employ two complementary approaches: (i) identifying deviations from models without early excess using power-law and SALT2 fits, and (ii) comparing observations with double-detonation (DD) and companion-interaction (CI) models. The latter identify 145 and 199 candidates, respectively, although the methods disagree substantially on both the objects selected and the total number of candidates. Combining all methods, we identify 17 robust EEx SN Ia candidates, including six over-luminous events (five 91T-like and one 03fg-like). The strongest excesses reach ${\sim}10$--17\% of the peak flux. The best candidates have, on average, higher stretch and preferentially occur in lower-mass, bluer host galaxies, suggesting younger stellar populations. We estimate that EEx SNe Ia comprise $\lesssim25\%$ of all SNe Ia, consistent with previous work, with over-luminous subtypes showing a higher relative incidence than normal SNe Ia. Among the DD models, the preferred solutions favour intermediate WD core masses ($1 M_{\odot}$), low shell-burning fractions ($20\%$), and heavier He-burning products ($^{56}$Ni), whereas the CI models show no clear parameter trends. Overall, we find no compelling evidence that either scenario is preferred as the origin of the observed early flux excesses.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

A Multi-Wavelength View of the First Type Ic-BL Supernova with an Einstein Probe X-ray Shock Breakout

In March 2026, the Einstein Probe (EP) discovered its most nearby (z = 0.0343) Fast X-ray Transient (FXT), EP260321a, the first EP FXT to provide a strong match to expectations for X-ray "shock breakout'" (SBO) emission. Here, we present our multi-wavelength follow-up campaign of EP260321a and its broad-line Type Ic (Ic-BL) supernova (SN) counterpart, SN2026gzf. We show that our radio follow-up extending over 5.8 - 54.5 days post-FXT rules out an on-axis jet counterpart of isotropic-equivalent kinetic energy $E_{K} \gtrsim 10^{49}$ erg for circumburst densities $n > 10^{-2}~{\rm cm}^{-3}$ and assuming microphysical parameters $ε_e = ε_B = 0.1$. Our radio data also constrains a median mass-loss rate of $\dot{M} \lesssim 1.2 \times 10^{-5} M_{\odot}~{\rm yr}^{-1}$ for a Wolf-Rayet progenitor. In addition, we derive SN2026gzf's properties, including $^{56}$Ni mass, diffusion timescale, and expansion velocities, from our $\sim$nightly-cadence optical data and compare them with those of optically discovered Type Ic-BL SNe, finding that SN 2026gzf is well within the 90\% confidence interval across all properties. We further fit SN2026gzf's light curve and determine that combined emission from both interaction with CSM and $^{56}$Ni radioactive decay provides the best fit with plausible model parameters. Finally, using the rate of Ic-BL SNe from the ZTF Bright Transient Survey and assuming all Type Ic-BL SNe produce EP260321a-like FXTs, we infer an expected rate of EP-detected SBOs of 4.4 - 16 year$^{-1}$. This is inconsistent at the 90% confidence level with current EP detection rates, potentially indicating that most Type Ic-BL SNe produce less luminous X-ray SBO signals compared to EP260321a.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Multiwavelength Analysis of Six Luminous Fast Blue Optical Transients

We present multiwavelength observations and analysis of six luminous fast blue optical transients (LFBOTs) discovered in Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) survey data. We identified these LFBOTs from their fast light-curve evolution ($t_{1/2}\leq 12 $d), blue colors at peak brightness ($g-r\leq-0.5 $mag), a visible host galaxy, high optical luminosity ($M_g<-20$), and an X-ray or radio detection. With the exception of AT2024aehp (ZTF24abygbss), these transients exhibit peaks in their $10\,$GHz radio light curves at $t_{\text{rest}} \approx 50-100$ d, with peak radio luminosities ranging from $10^{38}-10^{40}$ erg s$^{-1}$. Modeling the radio emission as synchrotron radiation indicates a fast ($v=0.1-0.3c$) shock in a dense ($n_e\approx10^{3}-10^{4}$ cm$^{-3}$) medium. The X-ray emission varies by $\approx2$ orders of magnitude in luminosity ($10^{42}-10^{44}$ erg s$^{-1}$) at $t_{\text{rest}}\sim20 $d. Analysis of the host-galaxy photometry and spectroscopy for each transient shows that they are predominantly nonnuclear (a few kpc offset) with star-forming host galaxies of stellar masses $10^{9}-10^{11} ,M_\odot$. Unlike all other LFBOTs to date, AT2024aehp exhibited a luminous ($M<-19 $mag) plateau in the optical light curve; spectra during this plateau phase showed a featureless blue continuum. The $6-15$ GHz radio emission of AT2024aehp brightened by over an order of magnitude from $t_{\text{rest}} \approx70 $d to $t_{\mathrm{rest}} \approx130 $d. The mostly consistent radio behavior between optically selected LFBOTs implies a similar circumburst medium, leading us to prefer a progenitor scenario in which mass is lost in a consistent way shortly prior to the terminal event, such as a massive star merging with a compact object.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Catching Disguised Transients with ASTRANet: Anomaly-Aware Spectroscopic Classification and Conformal Calibration

Time-domain surveys discover thousands of transients per year, but the spectroscopic identification of rare and physically peculiar objects remains rate-limited by closed-set classifiers that confidently assign every input to a known class -- including spectra that genuinely belong to no known class. We present the \texttt{ASTRANet} framework, a confidence-aware infrastructure for spectroscopic transient classification built around three coupled modules: a hierarchical spectral classifier that operates directly on observer-frame spectra without requiring host-galaxy redshift or spectral phase as inputs; an anomaly detection layer (\texttt{ASTRANet-Sentinel}) that non-linearly combines $16$ embedding-space anomaly scores spanning four physically motivated families; and a conformal uncertainty quantification layer (\texttt{ASTRANet-CP}). We validate the framework on a held-out evaluation set of $289$ rare and out-of-taxonomy transients spanning $11$ classes deliberately excluded from training, chosen to span the full physical diversity of the rare-anomaly population: AGN-related outliers, GRB-related events, gap transients, novae, and peculiar supernovae. Through five astrophysically distinct failure modes of closed-set classifiers, we show that classifier-internal uncertainty and embedding-based anomaly detection are structurally complementary axes of confidence rather than alternative implementations of the same estimator. We further introduce AD-stratified Mondrian conformal prediction (AD-MCP) within \texttt{ASTRANet-CP}, achieving uniform conditional coverage across anomaly-score strata where vanilla Mondrian under-covers in the operational regime. This establishes the methodological infrastructure for confidence-aware spectroscopic discovery in the Vera C.\ Rubin Observatory era.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Decoding the Early-Time Light Curves of Type Ia Supernovae. II. Population Parameters of One Thousand ZTF Supernovae

Early-time light curves of Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) encode critical information about their progenitor systems. We characterize the rise of normal SNe Ia using a volume-complete sample of 972 events from the Zwicky Transient Facility Data Release 2, an order of magnitude larger than any previous dataset for similar analyses. Fitting light curves up to $30\%$ of peak flux with a power-law model under a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we provide robust population-level constraints on the rise time ($t_\mathrm{rise}$; $μ=18.55\pm0.08$ days, $σ=1.42\pm0.07$ days), rise index ($α$; $μ=2.10\pm0.04$, $σ=0.48\pm0.03$ in ZTF $r$), and $g-r$ color evolution ($α_g - α_r$; $μ=0.20\pm0.02$, $σ=0.17\pm0.02$). These power-law fits are sensitive to the chosen truncation epoch if data beyond $\sim$$40\%$ of peak flux are included, but generally converge when restricted to earlier epochs. The relation between rise morphology and light-curve width ($\texttt{SALT2}$ $x_1$ stretch) bifurcates into two distinct regimes: high-stretch SNe Ia show clear trends where a higher $x_1$ correlates with shallower rises and more persistent blue colors, whereas low-stretch SNe Ia lack such trends. While rise times correlate positively with $x_1$ overall, this relation flattens significantly within the high-stretch population. Searching for anomalies, we identify several normal SNe Ia with unusually long rise times, which potentially exhibit short-duration ($\lesssim$2 days) flux excesses over a smooth rise. Long-duration ($\sim$5 days) flux excesses appear common within the high-stretch population and are tied to the shallow rises and early blue colors, pointing to widespread outward $^{56}$Ni mixing. Multi-dimensional explosion models with more realistic progenitor setups are needed to fully reproduce the observed dichotomy in rise morphology and stretch.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Leveraging Multimodality for Real-Time Classification of Transients and Variables found by the Zwicky Transient Facility

Modern time-domain surveys such as the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) generate hundreds of thousands of alerts each night, making real-time decisions for follow-up observations a central challenge in time-domain astronomy. Robust early classification is crucial for making informed decisions, but is hindered by sparse light curves and degeneracies between classes. In this work, we leverage multimodality to substantially improve real-time classification and demonstrate the practicality of our approach by deploying our model on the ZTF alert stream. Building on the Online Ranked Astrophysical CLass Estimator (ORACLE), we introduce the ORACLE-2 models, which combine light curves, metadata, and images for real-time hierarchical classification. Using both real and simulated datasets, we show that incorporating additional modalities consistently improves classification performance. On observations from ZTF's Bright Transient Survey, our best-performing model, ORACLE-2 Omni, achieves a macro F1 score of 0.73 -- an improvement of up to 11% over models using light curves and metadata alone, and up to 40% over light-curve-only models, with the strongest gains realized at early times. To demonstrate applicability to the Legacy Survey of Space and Time, which will increase alert volume by more than an order of magnitude, we train a light curve + metadata variant on the simulated ELAsTiCC dataset. This model achieves a macro F1 score of 0.88, an improvement of up to 13% over the light-curve-only variant, matching the performance of other state-of-the-art models. Finally, we quantify the trade-offs between performance and throughput, identifying regimes where multimodal approaches offer the greatest benefit. These results show that combining multiple modalities improves early-time classification, enabling more effective triage of high-volume alert streams for current and future time-domain surveys.

astro-ph.IM↗