Mansour Zoubeirou a Mayaki

arXiv2026

The Energy Consumption of Transformer Fine-Tuning: A Roofline-Inspired Scaling Model

Transformer-based models underpin modern natural language processing but incur rapidly growing computational and energy costs. As training scales in both model size and parallelism, accurately predicting energy consumption has become critical for sustainable and cost-aware system design. We present a framework for modeling the energy consumption of Transformer training on multiple GPUs. Using controlled architectural sweeps of BERT models, we relate measured energy to lightweight proxies for compute, memory traffic, and hardware efficiency. Inspired by roofline models, our approach incorporates a speedup-based hardware-efficiency factor that captures the effects of tensor parallelism and fully sharded data parallelism. We derive a scaling law model that accurately predicts training energy across heterogeneous configurations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Generalization and Scaling Laws for Mixture-of-Experts Transformers

We develop a theory of generalization and scaling for Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Transformers that cleanly separates \emph{active} per-input capacity from routing combinatorics. By conditioning on fixed routing patterns and union-bounding across them, we derive a sup-norm covering-number bound whose metric entropy scales with the active parameter budget and incurs a MoE-specific routing overhead. Combined with a standard ERM analysis for squared loss, this yields a generalization bound under a $d$-dimensional manifold data model and $C^β$ targets, showing that approximation and estimation trade off as in dense networks once active parameters are accounted for appropriately. We further prove a constructive approximation theorem for MoE architectures, showing that, under the approximation construction, error can decrease either by scaling active capacity or by increasing the number of experts, depending on the dominant bottleneck. From these results we derive neural scaling laws for model size, data size, and compute-optimal tradeoffs. Overall, our results provide a transparent statistical reference point for reasoning about MoE scaling, clarifying which behaviors are certified by worst-case theory and which must arise from data-dependent routing structure or optimization dynamics.

cs.LG↗