arXiv subjects

Manuel Arias Chao

Publications and source records attributed to Manuel Arias Chao.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Integrating Prognostics, Maintenance, and Tail Assignment under Remaining Useful Life Uncertainty: A Stochastic Optimisation Approach for Airline Reliability

Ensuring reliability, safety, and economic efficiency in airline operations requires maintenance and fleet scheduling strategies that explicitly account for uncertainty in Remaining Useful Life (RUL) predictions. However, the integration of prognostic uncertainty into operational decision-making remains a major challenge. In practice, tail assignment (TA) and maintenance scheduling (MS) are typically optimized separately or sequentially, thereby limiting the effective use of predictive health information despite their strong interdependencies. This paper proposes a unified optimisation framework that jointly integrates TA, MS, and predictive maintenance (PdM) under RUL with confidence intervals. The problem is formulated as a stochastic mixed-integer linear program, and a scalable solution approach is developed by embedding a neural network surrogate to approximate expected disruption costs resulting from RUL uncertainty. The proposed framework is evaluated using operational scenarios derived from real-world airline data. Results show that explicitly incorporating prognostic uncertainty in a joint planning model reduces operational risk, i.e., downstream disruption costs and flight cancellations, compared to deterministic and sequential approaches, at the expense of moderate increases in planning cost. These findings highlight the value of tightly coupling predictive maintenance with operational planning and demonstrate the potential of surrogate-assisted stochastic optimisation for scalable, uncertainty-aware airline decision-making.

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arXiv2023

A Benchmark on Uncertainty Quantification for Deep Learning Prognostics

Reliable uncertainty quantification on RUL prediction is crucial for informative decision-making in predictive maintenance. In this context, we assess some of the latest developments in the field of uncertainty quantification for prognostics deep learning. This includes the state-of-the-art variational inference algorithms for Bayesian neural networks (BNN) as well as popular alternatives such as Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), deep ensembles (DE) and heteroscedastic neural networks (HNN). All the inference techniques share the same inception deep learning architecture as a functional model. We performed hyperparameter search to optimize the main variational and learning parameters of the algorithms. The performance of the methods is evaluated on a subset of the large NASA NCMAPSS dataset for aircraft engines. The assessment includes RUL prediction accuracy, the quality of predictive uncertainty, and the possibility to break down the total predictive uncertainty into its aleatoric and epistemic parts. The results show no method clearly outperforms the others in all the situations. Although all methods are close in terms of accuracy, we find differences in the way they estimate uncertainty. Thus, DE and MCD generally provide more conservative predictive uncertainty than BNN. Surprisingly, HNN can achieve strong results without the added training complexity and extra parameters of the BNN. For tasks like active learning where a separation of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty is required, radial BNN and MCD seem the best options.

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arXiv2021

Uncertainty-aware Remaining Useful Life predictor

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation is the problem of inferring how long a certain industrial asset can be expected to operate within its defined specifications. Deploying successful RUL prediction methods in real-life applications is a prerequisite for the design of intelligent maintenance strategies with the potential of drastically reducing maintenance costs and machine downtimes. In light of their superior performance in a wide range of engineering fields, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are natural candidates to tackle the challenges involved in the design of intelligent maintenance systems. In particular, given the potentially catastrophic consequences or substantial costs associated with maintenance decisions that are either too late or too early, it is desirable that ML algorithms provide uncertainty estimates alongside their predictions. However, standard data-driven methods used for uncertainty estimation in RUL problems do not scale well to large datasets or are not sufficiently expressive to model the high-dimensional mapping from raw sensor data to RUL estimates. In this work, we consider Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) as possible solutions to the aforementioned limitations. We perform a thorough evaluation and comparison of several variants of DGPs applied to RUL predictions. The performance of the algorithms is evaluated on the N-CMAPSS (New Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation) dataset from NASA for aircraft engines. The results show that the proposed methods are able to provide very accurate RUL predictions along with sensible uncertainty estimates, providing more reliable solutions for (safety-critical) real-life industrial applications.

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arXiv2020

Fusing Physics-based and Deep Learning Models for Prognostics

Physics-based and data-driven models for remaining useful lifetime (RUL) prediction typically suffer from two major challenges that limit their applicability to complex real-world domains: (1) incompleteness of physics-based models and (2) limited representativeness of the training dataset for data-driven models. Combining the advantages of these two directions while overcoming some of their limitations, we propose a novel hybrid framework for fusing the information from physics-based performance models with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety-critical systems under real-world scenarios. In the proposed framework, we use physics-based performance models to infer unobservable model parameters related to a system's components health solving a calibration problem. These parameters are subsequently combined with sensor readings and used as input to a deep neural network to generate a data-driven prognostics model with physics-augmented features. The performance of the hybrid framework is evaluated on an extensive case study comprising run-to-failure degradation trajectories from a fleet of nine turbofan engines under real flight conditions. The experimental results show that the hybrid framework outperforms purely data-driven approaches by extending the prediction horizon by nearly 127\%. Furthermore, it requires less training data and is less sensitive to the limited representativeness of the dataset compared to purely data-driven approaches.

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arXiv2020

Implicit supervision for fault detection and segmentation of emerging fault types with Deep Variational Autoencoders

Data-driven fault diagnostics of safety-critical systems often faces the challenge of a complete lack of labeled data associated with faulty system conditions (i.e., fault types) at training time. Since an unknown number and nature of fault types can arise during deployment, data-driven fault diagnostics in this scenario is an open-set learning problem. Most of the algorithms for open-set diagnostics are one-class classification and unsupervised algorithms that do not leverage all the available labeled and unlabeled data in the learning algorithm. As a result, their fault detection and segmentation performance (i.e., identifying and separating faults of different types) are sub-optimal. With this work, we propose training a variational autoencoder (VAE) with labeled and unlabeled samples while inducing implicit supervision on the latent representation of the healthy conditions. This, together with a modified sampling process of VAE, creates a compact and informative latent representation that allows good detection and segmentation of unseen fault types using existing one-class and clustering algorithms. We refer to the proposed methodology as "knowledge induced variational autoencoder with adaptive sampling" (KIL-AdaVAE). The fault detection and segmentation capabilities of the proposed methodology are demonstrated in a new simulated case study using the Advanced Geared Turbofan 30000 (AGTF30) dynamical model under real flight conditions. In an extensive comparison, we demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms other learning strategies (supervised learning, supervised learning with embedding and semi-supervised learning) and deep learning algorithms, yielding significant performance improvements on fault detection and fault segmentation.

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arXiv2020

Real-Time Model Calibration with Deep Reinforcement Learning

The dynamic, real-time, and accurate inference of model parameters from empirical data is of great importance in many scientific and engineering disciplines that use computational models (such as a digital twin) for the analysis and prediction of complex physical processes. However, fast and accurate inference for processes with large and high dimensional datasets cannot easily be achieved with state-of-the-art methods under noisy real-world conditions. The primary reason is that the inference of model parameters with traditional techniques based on optimisation or sampling often suffers from computational and statistical challenges, resulting in a trade-off between accuracy and deployment time. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for inference of model parameters based on reinforcement learning. The contribution of the paper is twofold: 1) We reformulate the inference problem as a tracking problem with the objective of learning a policy that forces the response of the physics-based model to follow the observations; 2) We propose the constrained Lyapunov-based actor-critic (CLAC) algorithm to enable the robust and accurate inference of physics-based model parameters in real time under noisy real-world conditions. The proposed methodology is demonstrated and evaluated on two model-based diagnostics test cases utilizing two different physics-based models of turbofan engines. The performance of the methodology is compared to that of two alternative approaches: a state update method (unscented Kalman filter) and a supervised end-to-end mapping with deep neural networks. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methodology outperforms all other tested methods in terms of speed and robustness, with high inference accuracy.

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arXiv2019

Hybrid deep fault detection and isolation: Combining deep neural networks and system performance models

With the increased availability of condition monitoring data and the increased complexity of explicit system physics-based models, the application of data-driven approaches for fault detection and isolation has recently grown. While detection accuracy of such approaches is generally good, their performance on fault isolation often suffers from the fact that fault conditions affect a large portion of the measured signals thereby masking the fault source. To overcome this limitation and enable a more accurate fault detection, we propose a hybrid approach combining physical performance models with deep learning algorithms. Unobserved process variables are inferred with a physics-based performance model to enhance the input space of a data-driven diagnostics model. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, we generate a condition monitoring dataset of an advanced gas turbine during flight conditions under healthy and four faulty operative conditions based on the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) dynamical model. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method in combination with two different deep learning algorithms: feed forward neural networks and Variational Autoencoders, both of which demonstrate a significant improvement when applied within the hybrid fault detection and diagnostics framework. The proposed method is able to outperform pure data-driven solutions, particularly for systems with a high variability of operating conditions. It provides superior results both for fault detection as well as for fault isolation. For fault isolation, it overcomes the smearing effect that is observed in pure data-driven approaches and enables a precise isolation of the affected signal. We also demonstrate that deep learning algorithms provide a better performance on fault detection compared to the traditional machine learning algorithms.

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