arXiv subjects

Manxi Wu

Publications and source records attributed to Manxi Wu.

32 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Convergence and Stability of Coupled Belief--Strategy Learning Dynamics in Continuous Games

We propose a learning dynamics to model how strategic agents repeatedly play a continuous game while relying on an information platform to learn an unknown payoff-relevant parameter. In each time step, the platform updates a belief estimate of the parameter based on players' strategies and realized payoffs using Bayes's rule. Then, players adopt a generic learning rule to adjust their strategies based on the updated belief. We present results on the convergence of beliefs and strategies and the properties of convergent fixed points of the dynamics. We obtain sufficient and necessary conditions for the existence of globally stable fixed points. We also provide sufficient conditions for the local stability of fixed points. These results provide an approach to analyzing the long-term outcomes that arise from the interplay between Bayesian belief learning and strategy learning in games, and enable us to characterize conditions under which learning leads to a complete information equilibrium.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2023

Information Design for Spatial Resource Allocation

In this paper, we study platforms where resources and jobs are spatially distributed, and resources have the flexibility to strategically move to different locations for better payoffs. The price of the service at each location depends on the number of resources present and the market size, which is modeled as a random state. Our focus is on how the platform can utilize information about the underlying state to influence resource repositioning decisions and ultimately increase commission revenues. We establish that in many practically relevant settings a simple monotone partitional information disclosure policy is optimal. This policy reveals state realizations below a threshold and above a second (higher) threshold, and pools all states in between and maps them to a unique signal realization. We also provide algorithmic approaches for obtaining (near-)optimal information structures that are monotone partitional in general settings.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2022

Pursuit of a Discriminative Representation for Multiple Subspaces via Sequential Games

We consider the problem of learning discriminative representations for data in a high-dimensional space with distribution supported on or around multiple low-dimensional linear subspaces. That is, we wish to compute a linear injective map of the data such that the features lie on multiple orthogonal subspaces. Instead of treating this learning problem using multiple PCAs, we cast it as a sequential game using the closed-loop transcription (CTRL) framework recently proposed for learning discriminative and generative representations for general low-dimensional submanifolds. We prove that the equilibrium solutions to the game indeed give correct representations. Our approach unifies classical methods of learning subspaces with modern deep learning practice, by showing that subspace learning problems may be provably solved using the modern toolkit of representation learning. In addition, our work provides the first theoretical justification for the CTRL framework, in the important case of linear subspaces. We support our theoretical findings with compelling empirical evidence. We also generalize the sequential game formulation to more general representation learning problems. Our code, including methods for easy reproduction of experimental results, is publically available on GitHub.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Interpretable Machine Learning Models for Modal Split Prediction in Transportation Systems

Modal split prediction in transportation networks has the potential to support network operators in managing traffic congestion and improving transit service reliability. We focus on the problem of hourly prediction of the fraction of travelers choosing one mode of transportation over another using high-dimensional travel time data. We use logistic regression as base model and employ various regularization techniques for variable selection to prevent overfitting and resolve multicollinearity issues. Importantly, we interpret the prediction accuracy results with respect to the inherent variability of modal splits and travelers' aggregate responsiveness to changes in travel time. By visualizing model parameters, we conclude that the subset of segments found important for predictive accuracy changes from hour-to-hour and include segments that are topologically central and/or highly congested. We apply our approach to the San Francisco Bay Area freeway and rapid transit network and demonstrate superior prediction accuracy and interpretability of our method compared to pre-specified variable selection methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Inducing Social Optimality in Games via Adaptive Incentive Design

How can a social planner adaptively incentivize selfish agents who are learning in a strategic environment to induce a socially optimal outcome in the long run? We propose a two-timescale learning dynamics to answer this question in both atomic and non-atomic games. In our learning dynamics, players adopt a class of learning rules to update their strategies at a faster timescale, while a social planner updates the incentive mechanism at a slower timescale. In particular, the update of the incentive mechanism is based on each player's externality, which is evaluated as the difference between the player's marginal cost and the society's marginal cost in each time step. We show that any fixed point of our learning dynamics corresponds to the optimal incentive mechanism such that the corresponding Nash equilibrium also achieves social optimality. We also provide sufficient conditions for the learning dynamics to converge to a fixed point so that the adaptive incentive mechanism eventually induces a socially optimal outcome. Finally, we demonstrate that the sufficient conditions for convergence are satisfied in a variety of games, including (i) atomic networked quadratic aggregative games, (ii) atomic Cournot competition, and (iii) non-atomic network routing games.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2021

Dynamic Tolling for Inducing Socially Optimal Traffic Loads

How to design tolls that induce socially optimal traffic loads with dynamically arriving travelers who make selfish routing decisions? We propose a two-timescale discrete-time stochastic dynamics that adaptively adjusts the toll prices on a parallel link network while accounting for the updates of traffic loads induced by the incoming and outgoing travelers and their route choices. The updates of loads and tolls in our dynamics have three key features: (i) The total demand of incoming and outgoing travelers is stochastically realized; (ii) Travelers are myopic and selfish in that they choose routes according to a perturbed best response given the current latency and tolls on parallel links; (iii) The update of tolls is at a slower timescale as compared to the the update of loads. We show that the loads and the tolls eventually concentrate in a neighborhood of the fixed point, which corresponds to the socially optimal load and toll price. Moreover, the fixed point load is also a stochastic user equilibrium with respect to the toll price. Our results are useful for traffic authorities to efficiently manage traffic loads in response to the arrival and departure of travelers.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2021

Multi-agent Bayesian Learning with Best Response Dynamics: Convergence and Stability

We study learning dynamics induced by strategic agents who repeatedly play a game with an unknown payoff-relevant parameter. In this dynamics, a belief estimate of the parameter is repeatedly updated given players' strategies and realized payoffs using Bayes's rule. Players adjust their strategies by accounting for best response strategies given the belief. We show that, with probability 1, beliefs and strategies converge to a fixed point, where the belief consistently estimates the payoff distribution for the strategy, and the strategy is an equilibrium corresponding to the belief. However, learning may not always identify the unknown parameter because the belief estimate relies on the game outcomes that are endogenously generated by players' strategies. We obtain sufficient and necessary conditions, under which learning leads to a globally stable fixed point that is a complete information Nash equilibrium. We also provide sufficient conditions that guarantee local stability of fixed point beliefs and strategies.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2021

Efficient Carpooling and Toll Pricing for Autonomous Transportation

In this paper, we address the existence and computation of competitive equilibrium in the transportation market for autonomous carpooling first proposed by [Ostrovsky and Schwarz, 2019]. At equilibrium, the market organizes carpooled trips over a transportation network in a socially optimal manner and sets the corresponding payments for individual riders and toll prices on edges. The market outcome ensures individual rationality, stability of carpooled trips, budget balance, and market clearing properties under heterogeneous rider preferences. We show that the question of market's existence can be resolved by proving the existence of an integer optimal solution of a linear programming problem. We characterize conditions on the network topology and riders' disutility for carpooling under which a market equilibrium can be computed in polynomial time. This characterization relies on ideas from the theory of combinatorial auctions and minimum cost network flow problem. Finally, we characterize a market equilibrium that achieves strategyproofness and maximizes welfare of individual riders.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2020

Multi-agent Bayesian Learning with Adaptive Strategies: Convergence and Stability

We study learning dynamics induced by strategic agents who repeatedly play a game with an unknown payoff-relevant parameter. In each step, an information system estimates a belief distribution of the parameter based on the players' strategies and realized payoffs using Bayes' rule. Players adjust their strategies by accounting for an equilibrium strategy or a best response strategy based on the updated belief. We prove that beliefs and strategies converge to a fixed point with probability 1. We also provide conditions that guarantee local and global stability of fixed points. Any fixed point belief consistently estimates the payoff distribution given the fixed point strategy profile. However, convergence to a complete information Nash equilibrium is not always guaranteed. We provide a sufficient and necessary condition under which fixed point belief recovers the unknown parameter. We also provide a sufficient condition for convergence to complete information equilibrium even when parameter learning is incomplete.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

Value of Information in Bayesian Routing Games

We study a routing game in an environment with multiple heterogeneous information systems and an uncertain state that affects edge costs of a congested network. Each information system sends a noisy signal about the state to its subscribed traveler population. Travelers make route choices based on their private beliefs about the state and other populations' signals. The question then arises, "How does the presence of asymmetric and incomplete information affect the travelers' equilibrium route choices and costs?'' We develop a systematic approach to characterize the equilibrium structure, and determine the effect of population sizes on the relative value of information (i.e. difference in expected traveler costs) between any two populations. This effect can be evaluated using a population-specific size threshold. One population enjoys a strictly positive value of information in comparison to the other if and only if its size is below the corresponding threshold. We also consider the situation when travelers may choose an information system based on its value, and characterize the set of equilibrium adoption rates delineating the sizes of subscribed traveler populations. The resulting routing strategies are such that all travelers face an identical expected cost and no traveler has the incentive to change her subscription.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2019

Information Design for Regulating Traffic Flows under Uncertain Network State

Traffic navigation services have gained widespread adoption in recent years. The route recommendations generated by these services often leads to severe congestion on urban streets, raising concerns from neighboring residents and city authorities. This paper is motivated by the question: How can a transportation authority design an information structure to induce a preferred equilibrium traffic flow pattern in uncertain network state conditions? We approach this question from a Bayesian persuasion viewpoint. We consider a basic routing game with two parallel routes and an uncertain state that affects the travel cost on one of the routes. The authority sends a noisy signal of the state to a given fraction of travelers. The information structure (i.e., distribution of signals in each state) chosen by the authority creates a heterogeneous information environment for the routing game. The solution concept governing the travelers' route choices is Bayesian Wardrop Equilibrium. We design an information structure to minimize the average traffic spillover -- the amount of equilibrium route flow exceeding a certain threshold -- on one of the routes. We provide an analytical characterization of the optimal information structure for any fraction of travelers receiving the signal. We find that it can achieve the minimum spillover so long as the fraction of travelers receiving the signal is larger than a threshold (smaller than 1).

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Learning an Unknown Network State in Routing Games

We study learning dynamics induced by myopic travelers who repeatedly play a routing game on a transportation network with an unknown state. The state impacts cost functions of one or more edges of the network. In each stage, travelers choose their routes according to Wardrop equilibrium based on public belief of the state. This belief is broadcast by an information system that observes the edge loads and realized costs on the used edges, and performs a Bayesian update to the prior stage's belief. We show that the sequence of public beliefs and edge load vectors generated by the repeated play converge almost surely. In any rest point, travelers have no incentive to deviate from the chosen routes and accurately learn the true costs on the used edges. However, the costs on edges that are not used may not be accurately learned. Thus, learning can be incomplete in that the edge load vectors at rest point and complete information equilibrium can be different. We present some conditions for complete learning and illustrate situations when such an outcome is not guaranteed.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2018

Securing Infrastructure Facilities: When does proactive defense help?

Infrastructure systems are increasingly facing new security threats due to the vulnerabilities of cyber-physical components that support their operation. In this article, we investigate how the infrastructure operator (defender) should prioritize the investment in securing a set of facilities in order to reduce the impact of a strategic adversary (attacker) who can target a facility to increase the overall usage cost of the system. We adopt a game-theoretic approach to model the defender-attacker interaction and study two models: normal-form game -- where both players move simultaneously; and sequential game -- where attacker moves after observing the defender's strategy. For each model, we provide a complete characterization of how the set of facilities that are secured by the defender in equilibrium vary with the costs of attack and defense. Importantly, our analysis provides a sharp condition relating the cost parameters for which the defender has the first mover advantage. Specifically, we show that to fully deter the attacker from targeting any facility, the defender needs to proactively secure all "vulnerable facilities" at an appropriate level of effort. We illustrate the outcome of the attacker-defender interaction on a simple transportation network. We also suggest a dynamic learning setup to understand how this outcome can affect the ability of imperfectly informed users to make their decisions about using the system in the post-attack stage.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2018

Signaling Game-based Misbehavior Inspection in V2I-enabled Highway Operations

Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) communications are increasingly supporting highway operations such as electronic toll collection, carpooling, and vehicle platooning. In this paper we study the incentives of strategic misbehavior by individual vehicles who can exploit the security vulnerabilities in V2I communications and negatively impact the highway operations. We consider a V2I-enabled highway segment facing two classes of vehicles (agent populations), each with an authorized access to one server (subset of lanes). Vehicles are strategic in that they can misreport their class (type) to the system operator and get an unauthorized access to the server dedicated to the other class. This misbehavior causes additional congestion externality on the compliant vehicles, and thus, needs to be deterred. We focus on an environment where the operator is able to inspect the vehicles for misbehavior. The inspection is costly and successful detection incurs a fine on the misbehaving vehicle. We formulate a signaling game to study the strategic interaction between the vehicle classes and the operator. Our equilibrium analysis provides conditions on the cost parameters that govern the vehicles' incentive to misbehave or not. We also determine the operator's equilibrium inspection strategy.

cs.GT↗