arXiv subjects

Marc Baguelin

Publications and source records attributed to Marc Baguelin.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2019

Contemporary statistical inference for infectious disease models using Stan

This paper is concerned with the application of recent statistical advances to inference of infectious disease dynamics. We describe the fitting of a class of epidemic models using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Variational Inference as implemented in the freely available Stan software. We apply the two methods to real data from outbreaks as well as routinely collected observations. Our results suggest that both inference methods are computationally feasible in this context, and show a trade-off between statistical efficiency versus computational speed. The latter appears particularly relevant for real-time applications.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2012

Capturing the time-varying drivers of an epidemic using stochastic dynamical systems

Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions, seasonal effects etc). These models assign diffusion processes to the time-varying parameters, and our inferential procedure is based on a suitably adjusted adaptive particle MCMC algorithm. The performance of the proposed computational methods is validated on simulated data and the adopted model is applied to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in England. In addition to estimating the effective contact rate trajectories, the methodology is applied in real time to provide evidence in related public health decisions. Diffusion driven SEIR-type models with age structure are also introduced.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2007

Meta-dynamical adaptive systems and their applications to a fractal algorithm and a biological model

In this article, one defines two models of adaptive systems: the meta-dynamical adaptive system using the notion of Kalman dynamical systems and the adaptive differential equations using the notion of variable dimension spaces. This concept of variable dimension spaces relates the notion of spaces to the notion of dimensions. First, a computational model of the Douady's Rabbit fractal is obtained by using the meta-dynamical adaptive system concept. Then, we focus on a defense-attack biological model described by our two formalisms.

nlin.AO↗