arXiv subjects

Marc Stettler

Publications and source records attributed to Marc Stettler.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Efficacy of Scalable Airline-led Contrail Avoidance

Contrails account for a large portion of aviation's contribution to anthropogenic climate change. Navigational contrail avoidance is a promising solution to mitigate the warming caused by contrails. Prior trials testing navigational contrail avoidance have relied on bespoke integrations of contrail forecasts into airline operations. Here, we use a randomized control trial to test the feasibility of dispatcher-led contrail avoidance integrated into standard flight planning operations using a workflow that scales to an airline's entire network. We validated the efficacy of this intervention using satellite imagery and an automated flight-contrail attribution algorithm. Using this system, we observed an 11.6% reduction in contrail formation rate for the 1232 flights marked as eligible for contrail avoidance (intent-to-treat) relative to the flights in the control group (p = 0.011). In the 112 flights that flew contrail avoidance as planned (per-protocol flights), we observed a 62.0% lower contrail formation rate relative to the flights in the control group (p < 0.001). No statistically significant difference in fuel usage was observed between the two groups.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

Adaptive Road Configurations for Improved Autonomous Vehicle-Pedestrian Interactions using Reinforcement Learning

The deployment of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) poses considerable challenges and unique opportunities for the design and management of future urban road infrastructure. In light of this disruptive transformation, the Right-Of-Way (ROW) composition of road space has the potential to be renewed. Design approaches and intelligent control models have been proposed to address this problem, but we lack an operational framework that can dynamically generate ROW plans for AVs and pedestrians in response to real-time demand. Based on microscopic traffic simulation, this study explores Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods for evolving ROW compositions. We implement a centralised paradigm and a distributive learning paradigm to separately perform the dynamic control on several road network configurations. Experimental results indicate that the algorithms have the potential to improve traffic flow efficiency and allocate more space for pedestrians. Furthermore, the distributive learning algorithm outperforms its centralised counterpart regarding computational cost (49.55\%), benchmark rewards (25.35\%), best cumulative rewards (24.58\%), optimal actions (13.49\%) and rate of convergence. This novel road management technique could potentially contribute to the flow-adaptive and active mobility-friendly streets in the AVs era.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Feasibility of Equity-driven Taxi Pricing Strategy based on Double Auction Mechanism in Bangkok Metropolitan Region, Thailand

Passenger rejection by taxi drivers impacts the travel behaviour in many cities and suburban areas, often leaving those potential customers in non-popular zones stranded without access to taxis. To overcome this problem, many practices have been implemented, such as penalties to drivers, bans, and new pricing strategies. This paper presents a double auction taxi fare scheme, which gives both passengers and taxi drivers to influence the price, coupled with a clustering method to discourage strategic service rejection in the case study of Bangkok Metropolitan Region, Thailand, which has detailed data availability and uneven taxi journey distributions. The double auction mechanism is tailored to 2019 taxi trips, service rejection complaints, and local travel behaviour to boost transportation equity. To benchmark the performance of the new double auction scheme, a bespoke agent-based model of the taxi service in Bangkok Metropolitan Region at different rejection rates of 0%-20% was created. On one hand, the current rejection behaviour was modelled, and on the other, the double auction pricing strategy was applied. The results indicate that the double auction strategy generates a spatially distributed accessibility and leads to a higher taxi assignment success rate by up to 30%. The double auction scheme increases pickups from locations that are 20-40 km from central Bangkok by 10-15%, despite being areas of low profit. Due to the changing taxi travel landscape and longer taxi journeys, the total air pollutant emissions from the taxis increase by 10% while decreasing local emissions within central areas of Bangkok by upto 40%. Using a 5 Baht average surcharge, the total revenue drops by 20%. The results show that an equity-driven pricing strategy as an implementation of transport policy would be beneficial.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

A Reinforcement Learning-based Adaptive Control Model for Future Street Planning, An Algorithm and A Case Study

With the emerging technologies in Intelligent Transportation System (ITS), the adaptive operation of road space is likely to be realised within decades. An intelligent street can learn and improve its decision-making on the right-of-way (ROW) for road users, liberating more active pedestrian space while maintaining traffic safety and efficiency. However, there is a lack of effective controlling techniques for these adaptive street infrastructures. To fill this gap in existing studies, we formulate this control problem as a Markov Game and develop a solution based on the multi-agent Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (MADDPG) algorithm. The proposed model can dynamically assign ROW for sidewalks, autonomous vehicles (AVs) driving lanes and on-street parking areas in real-time. Integrated with the SUMO traffic simulator, this model was evaluated using the road network of the South Kensington District against three cases of divergent traffic conditions: pedestrian flow rates, AVs traffic flow rates and parking demands. Results reveal that our model can achieve an average reduction of 3.87% and 6.26% in street space assigned for on-street parking and vehicular operations. Combined with space gained by limiting the number of driving lanes, the average proportion of sidewalks to total widths of streets can significantly increase by 10.13%.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

Vehicle Redistribution in Ride-Sourcing Markets using Convex Minimum Cost Flows

Ride-sourcing platforms often face imbalances in the demand and supply of rides across areas in their operating road-networks. As such, dynamic pricing methods have been used to mediate these demand asymmetries through surge price multipliers, thus incentivising higher driver participation in the market. However, the anticipated commercialisation of autonomous vehicles could transform the current ride-sourcing platforms to fleet operators. The absence of human drivers fosters the need for empty vehicle management to address any vehicle supply deficiencies. Proactive redistribution using integer programming and demand predictive models have been proposed in research to address this problem. A shortcoming of existing models, however, is that they ignore the market structure and underlying customer choice behaviour. As such, current models do not capture the real value of redistribution. To resolve this, we formulate the vehicle redistribution problem as a non-linear minimum cost flow problem which accounts for the relationship of supply and demand of rides, by assuming a customer discrete choice model and a market structure. We demonstrate that this model can have a convex domain, and we introduce an edge splitting algorithm to solve a transformed convex minimum cost flow problem for vehicle redistribution. By testing our model using simulation, we show that our redistribution algorithm can decrease wait times by more than 50%, increase profit up to 10% with less than 20% increase in vehicle mileage. Our findings outline that the value of redistribution is contingent on localised market structure and customer behaviour.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2020

Identifying Critical Fleet Sizes Using a Novel Agent-Based Modelling Framework for Autonomous Ride-Sourcing

Ride-sourcing platforms enable an on-demand shared transport service by solving decision problems often related to customer matching, pricing and vehicle routing. These problems have been frequently represented using aggregated mathematical models and solved via algorithmic approaches designed by researchers. The increasing complexity of ride-sourcing environments compromises the accuracy of aggregated methods. It, therefore, signals the need for alternative practices such as agent-based models which capture the level of complex dynamics in ride-sourcing systems. The use of these agent-based models to simulate ride-sourcing fleets has been a focal point of many studies; however, this occurred in the absence of a prescribed approach on how to build the models to mimic fleet operations realistically. To bridge this research gap, we provide a framework for building bespoke agent-based models for ride-sourcing fleets, derived from the fundamentals of agent-based modelling theory. We also introduce a model building sequence of the different modules necessary to structure a simulator based on our framework. To showcase the strength of our framework, we use it to tackle the highly non-linear problem of minimum fleet size estimation for autonomous ride-sourcing fleets. We do so by investigating the relationship of system parameters based on queuing theory principles and by deriving and validating a novel model for pickup wait times. By modelling the ride-sourcing fleet function in the urban areas of Manhattan, San Francisco, Paris and Barcelona, we find that ride-sourcing fleets operate queues with zero assignment times above the critical fleet size. We also show that pickup wait times have a pivotal role in the estimation of the minimum fleet size in ride-sourcing operations, with agent-based modelling to be a more reliable route for their identification given the system parameters.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

Assignment and Pricing of Shared Rides in Ride-Sourcing using Combinatorial Double Auctions

Transportation Network Companies employ dynamic pricing methods at periods of peak travel to incentivise driver participation and balance supply and demand for rides. Surge pricing multipliers are commonly used and are applied following demand and estimates of customer and driver trip valuations. Combinatorial double auctions have been identified as a suitable alternative, as they can achieve maximum social welfare in the allocation by relying on customers and drivers stating their valuations. A shortcoming of current models, however, is that they fail to account for the effects of trip detours that take place in shared trips and their impact on the accuracy of pricing estimates. To resolve this, we formulate a new shared-ride assignment and pricing algorithm using combinatorial double auctions. We demonstrate that this model is reduced to a maximum weighted independent set model, which is known to be APX-hard. A fast local search heuristic is also presented, which is capable of producing results that lie within 10% of the exact approach for practical implementations. Our proposed algorithm could be used as a fast and reliable assignment and pricing mechanism of ride-sharing requests to vehicles during peak travel times.

cs.CC↗