arXiv subjects

Marcel Ausloos

Publications and source records attributed to Marcel Ausloos.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Rank-size law, financial inequality indices and gain concentrations by cyclist teams. The case of a multiple stage bicycle race, like Tour de France

This note examines financial distributions to competing teams at the end of the most famous multiple stage professional (male) bicyclist race, TOUR DE FRANCE. A rank-size law (RSL) is calculated for the team financial gains. The RSL is found to be hyperbolic with a surprisingly simple decay exponent (about equal to -1). Yet, the financial gain distributions unexpectedly do not obey Pareto principle of factor sparsity. Next, several (8) inequality indices are considered : the Entropy, the Hirschman-Herfindahl, Theil, Pietra-Hoover, Gini, Rosenbluth indices, the Coefficient of Variation and the Concentration Index are calculated for outlining diversity measures. The connection between such indices and their concentration aspects meanings are presented as support of the RSL findings. The results emphasize that the sum of skills and team strategies are effectively contributing to the financial gains distributions. From theoretical and practical points of view, the findings suggest that one should investigate other "long multiple stage races" and rewarding rules. Indeed, money prize rules coupling to stage difficulty might influence and maybe enhance (or deteriorate) purely sportive aspects in group competitions. Due to the delay in the peer review process, the 2019 results can be examined. They are discussed in an Appendix; the value of the exponent (-1.2) is pointed out to mainly originating from the so called "king effect"; the tail of the RSL rather looks like an exponential.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Optimization of the post-crisis recovery plans in scale-free networks

General Motors or a local business, which one is better to be stimulated in post-crisis recessions, where government stimulation is meant to overcome recessions? Due to the budget constraints, it is quite relevant to ask how one can increase the chance of economic recovery. One of the key elements to answer this question is to understand metastable features of the economic networks. Ising model has been suggested for studying such features in the literature. In the homogenous networks one needs at least a minimum activation, forcing an Ising network to switch its local equilibria, where such minimum is independent of the nodes characteristics. In the scale free networks however, when one aims to push the network to switch its vacuum, she faces the question of which nodes are better to be stimulated to minimize the cost. In the paper it has been shown that stimulation of the high degree nodes costs less in general. Despite regular networks, in the scale free networks, the stimulation cost depends on the networks features such as assortativity. Though we have utilized the Ising model to tackle a problem in economics, our analysis shed lights on many other problems concerning stimulations of socio-economic systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Correlations between submission and acceptance of papers in peer review journals

This paper provides a comparative study about seasonal influence on editorial decisions for papers submitted to two peer review journals. We distinguish a specialized one, the Journal of the Serbian Chemical Society (JSCS) and an interdisciplinary one, Entropy. Dates of electronic submission for about 600 papers to JSCS and 2500 to Entropy have been recorded over 3 recent years. Time series of either accepted or rejected papers are subsequently analyzed. We take either editors or authors view points into account, thereby considering magnitudes and probabilities. In this sample, it is found that there are distinguishable peaks and dips in the time series, demonstrating preferred months for the submission of papers. It is also found that papers are more likely accepted if they are submitted during a few specific months, - these depending on the journal. The probability of having a rejected paper also appears to be seasonally biased. In view of clarifying reports with contradictory findings, we discuss previously proposed conjectures for such effects, like holiday effects and the desk rejection by editors. We conclude that, in this sample, the type of journal, specialized or multidisciplinary, seems to be the drastic criterion for distinguishing the outcomes rates.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2019

Seasonal Entropy, Diversity and Inequality Measures of Submitted and Accepted Papers Distributions In Peer-Reviewed Journals

This paper presents a novel method for finding features in the analysis of variable distributions stemming from time series. We apply the methodology to the case of submitted and accepted papers in peer-reviewed journals. We provide a comparative study of editorial decisions for papers submitted to two peer-reviewed journals: the Journal of the Serbian Chemical Society (JSCS) and this MDPI Entropy journal. We cover three recent years for which the fate of submitted papers, about 600 papers to JSCS and 2500 to Entropy, is completely determined. Instead of comparing the number distributions of these papers as a function of time with respect to a uniform distribution, we analyze the relevant probabilities, from which we derive the information entropy. It is argued that such probabilities are indeed more relevant for authors than the actual number of submissions. We tie this entropy analysis to the so called diversity of the variable distributions. Furthermore, we emphasize the correspondence between the entropy and the diversity with inequality measures, like the Herfindahl-Hirschman index and the Theil index, itself being in the class of entropy measures; the Gini coefficient which also measures the diversity in ranking is calculated for further discussion. In this sample, the seasonal aspects of the peer review process are outlined. It is found that the use of such indices, non linear transformations of the data distributions, allow to distinguish features and evolutions of peer review process as a function of time as well as comparing non-uniformity of distributions. Furthermore, t- and z- statistical tests are applied in order to measure the significance (p-level) of the findings, i.e. whether papers are more likely to be accepted if they are submitted during a few specific months or "season"; the predictability strength depends on the journal.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2019

Efficiency in managing peer-review of scientific manuscripts -- editors' perspective

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a model for measuring the efficiency in managing peer-review of scientific manuscripts by editors. The approach employed is based on the assumption that the editorial aim is to manage publication with high efficiency, employing the least amount of editorial resources. Efficiency is defined in this research as a measure based on 7 variables. An on-line survey was constructed and editors of journals originating from Serbia regularly publishing articles in the field of chemistry were invited to participate. An evaluation of the model is given based on responses from 24 journals and 50 editors. With this investigation we aimed to contribute to our understanding of the peer-review process and, possibly, offer a tool to improve the "efficiency" in journal editing. The proposed protocol may be adapted by other journals in order to assess the managing potential of editors.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2019

Fundamental Analysis in China: An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Financial Ratios and Stock Prices

The informational context is regularly questioned in a transitional economic regime like the one implemented in China or Vietnam. This article investigates this issue and the predictive power of fundamental analysis in such context and more precisely in a Chinese context with an analysis of 3 different industries (media, power, and steel). Through 3 different kinds of correlation, we examine 25 financial determinants for 60 Chinese listed companies between 2011 and 2015. Our results show that fundamental analysis can effectively be used as an investment tool in transitional economic context. Contrasting with the EMH for which the accounting information is instantaneously integrated into the financial information (stock prices), our study suggests that these two levels of information are not synchronized in China opening therefore a door for a fundamental analysis based prediction. Furthermore, our results also indicate that accounting information illustrates quite well the economic reality since financial reports in each industry can disclose a part of stock value information in line with the economic situation of the industry under consideration.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2019

A joint text mining-rank size investigation of the rhetoric structures of the US Presidents' speeches

This work presents a text mining context and its use for a deep analysis of the messages delivered by the politicians. Specifically, we deal with an expert systems-based exploration of the rhetoric dynamics of a large collection of US Presidents' speeches, ranging from Washington to Trump. In particular, speeches are viewed as complex expert systems whose structures can be effectively analyzed through rank-size laws. The methodological contribution of the paper is twofold. First, we develop a text mining-based procedure for the construction of the dataset by using a web scraping routine on the Miller Center website -- the repository collecting the speeches. Second, we explore the implicit structure of the discourse data by implementing a rank-size procedure over the individual speeches, being the words of each speech ranked in terms of their frequencies. The scientific significance of the proposed combination of text-mining and rank-size approaches can be found in its flexibility and generality, which let it be reproducible to a wide set of expert systems and text mining contexts. The usefulness of the proposed method and the speech subsequent analysis is demonstrated by the findings themselves. Indeed, in terms of impact, it is worth noting that interesting conclusions of social, political and linguistic nature on how 45 United States Presidents, from April 30, 1789 till February 28, 2017 delivered political messages can be carried out. Indeed, the proposed analysis shows some remarkable regularities, not only inside a given speech, but also among different speeches. Moreover, under a purely methodological perspective, the presented contribution suggests possible ways of generating a linguistic decision-making algorithm.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2019

Evidence for Gross Domestic Product growth time delay dependence over Foreign Direct Investment. A time-lag dependent correlation study

This paper considers an often forgotten relationship, the time delay between a cause and its effect in economies and finance. We treat the case of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth, - measured through a country Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The pertinent data refers to 43 countries, over 1970-2015, - for a total of 4278 observations. When countries are grouped according to the Inequality-Adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI), it is found that a time lag dependence effect exists in FDI-GDP correlations. This is established through a time-dependent Pearson 's product-moment correlation coefficient matrix. Moreover, such a Pearson correlation coefficient is observed to evolve from positive to negative values depending on the IHDI, from low to high. It is "politically and policy "relevant" that the correlation is statistically significant providing the time lag is less than 3 years. A "rank-size" law is demonstrated. It is recommended to reconsider such a time lag effect when discussing previous analyses whence conclusions on international business, and thereafter on forecasting.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2018

Exploring how innovation strategies at time of crisis influence performance: a cluster analysis perspective

This paper analyzes the connection between innovation activities of companies -- implemented before crisis -- and their performance -- measured at time of crisis. The companies listed in the STAR Market Segment of the Italian Stock Exchange are analyzed. Innovation is measured through the level of investments in total tangible and intangible fixed assets in 2006-2007, while performance is captured through growth -- expressed by variations of sales, total assets and employees -- profitability -- through ROI or ROS -- and productivity -- through asset turnover or sales per employee in the period 2008-2010. The variables of interest are analyzed and compared through statistical techniques and by adopting cluster analysis. In particular, a Voronoi tessellation is also implemented in a varying centroids framework. In accord with a large part of the literature, we find that the behavior of the performance of the companies is not univocal when they innovate.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2018

Intriguing yet simple skewness - kurtosis relation in economic and demographic data distributions; pointing to preferential attachment processes

In this paper, we propose that relations between high order moments of data distributions, for example between the skewness (S) and kurtosis (K), allow to point to theoretical models with understandable structural parameters. The illustrative data concerns two cases: (i) the distribution of income taxes and (ii) that of inhabitants, after aggregation over each city in each province of Italy in 2011. Moreover, from the rank-size relationship, for either S or K, in both cases, it is shown that one obtains the parameters of the underlying (hypothetical) modeling distribution: in the present cases, the 2-parameter Beta function, - itself related to the Yule-Simon distribution function, whence suggesting a growth model based on the preferential attachment process.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

A tribute to Marian Smoluchowski's legacy on soft grains assembly and hydrogel formation

The paper compares the statistical description of physical-metallurgical processes and ceramic-polycrystalline evolutions, termed the normal grain growth (NGG), as adopted to soft- and chemically-reactive grains, with a Smoluchowski's population-constant kernel cluster-cluster aggregation (CCA) model, concerning irreversible chemical reaction kinetics. The former aiming at comprehending, in a semi-quantitative way, the volume-conservative (pressure-drifted) grain-growth process which we propose to adopt for hydrogel systems at quite low temperature (near a gel point). It has been noticed, that by identifying the mean cluster size $ $ from the Smoluchowski CCA description with the mean cluster radius' size $R_D$, from the NGG approach of proximate grains, one is able to embark on equivalence of both frameworks, but only under certain conditions. For great enough, close-packed clusters, the equivalence can be obtained by rearranging the time domain with rescaled time variable, where the scaling function originates from the dispersive (long-tail, or fractal) kinetics, with a single exponent equal to $d+1$ (in $d$-dimensional (Euclidean) space). This can be of interest for experimenters, working in the field of thermoresponsive gels formation, where crystalline structural predispositions overwhelm.

cond-mat.soft↗

arXiv2018

Data on the annual aggregated income taxes of the Italian municipalities over the quinquennium 2007-2011

This dataset contains the annual aggregated income taxes of all the Italian municipalities over the years 2007-2011. Data are clustered over the Italian regions and provinces. The source of the data is the Italian Ministry of Economics and Finance. The administrative variations in Italy over the quinquennium have been taken into account. Data are useful to understand the economic structure of Italy at the microscopic level of municipalities. They can serve also for making comparisons between economical aspects and other features of the Italian cities.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2018

Investigating the configurations in cross-shareholding: a joint copula-entropy approach

--- the companies populating a Stock market, along with their connections, can be effectively modeled through a directed network, where the nodes represent the companies, and the links indicate the ownership. This paper deals with this theme and discusses the concentration of a market. A cross-shareholding matrix is considered, along with two key factors: the node out-degree distribution which represents the diversification of investments in terms of the number of involved companies, and the node in-degree distribution which reports the integration of a company due to the sales of its own shares to other companies. While diversification is widely explored in the literature, integration is most present in literature on contagions. This paper captures such quantities of interest in the two frameworks and studies the stochastic dependence of diversification and integration through a copula approach. We adopt entropies as measures for assessing the concentration in the market. The main question is to assess the dependence structure leading to a better description of the data or to market polarization (minimal entropy) or market fairness (maximal entropy). In so doing, we derive information on the way in which the in- and out-degrees should be connected in order to shape the market. The question is of interest to regulators bodies, as witnessed by specific alert threshold published on the US mergers guidelines for limiting the possibility of acquisitions and the prevalence of a single company on the market. Indeed, all countries and the EU have also rules or guidelines in order to limit concentrations, in a country or across borders, respectively. The calibration of copulas and model parameters on the basis of real data serves as an illustrative application of the theoretical proposal.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2018

SME investment best strategies. Outliers for assessing how to optimize performance

Any research on strategies for reaching business excellence aims at revealing the appropriate course of actions any executive should consider. Thus, discussions take place on how effective a performance measurement system can be estimated, or/and validated. Can one find an adequate measure (i) on the performance result due to whatever level of investment, and (ii) on the timing of such investments? We argue that extreme value statistics provide the answer. We demonstrate that the level and timing of investments allow to be forecasting small and medium size enterprises (SME) performance, - at financial crisis times. The "investment level" is taken as the yearly total tangible asset (TTA). The financial/economic performance indicators defining growth are the sales or total assets variations; profitability is defined from returns on investments or returns on sales. Companies on the Italian Stock Exchange STAR Market serve as example. It is found from the distributions extreme values that outlier companies (with positive performance) are those with the lowest but growing TTA. In contrast, the SME with low TTA, but which did not increase its TTA, before the crisis, became a negative outlier. The outcome of these statistical findings should suggest strategies to SME board members.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2018

Intriguing behavior when testing the impact of quotation marks usage in Google search results

Internet research on search engine quality and validity of results demand much concern. Thus, the focus in our study has been to measure the impact of quotation marks usage on the internet search outputs in terms of google search outcomes distributions, through Benford Law. The current paper is focused on applying a Benford Law analysis on two related types of internet searches distinguished by the usage or absence of quotation marks. Both search results values are assumed as variables. We found that the first digit of outcomes does not follow the Benford Law first digit of numbers in the case of searching text without quotation marks. Unexpectedly, the Benford Law is obeyed when quotation marks are used, even if the variability of search outcomes is considerably reduced. By studying outputs demonstrating influences of (apparently at first) "details", in using a search engine, the authors are able to further warn the users concerning the validity of such outputs.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2017

Artificial intelligence in peer review: How can evolutionary computation support journal editors?

With the volume of manuscripts submitted for publication growing every year, the deficiencies of peer review (e.g. long review times) are becoming more apparent. Editorial strategies, sets of guidelines designed to speed up the process and reduce editors workloads, are treated as trade secrets by publishing houses and are not shared publicly. To improve the effectiveness of their strategies, editors in small publishing groups are faced with undertaking an iterative trial-and-error approach. We show that Cartesian Genetic Programming, a nature-inspired evolutionary algorithm, can dramatically improve editorial strategies. The artificially evolved strategy reduced the duration of the peer review process by 30%, without increasing the pool of reviewers (in comparison to a typical human-developed strategy). Evolutionary computation has typically been used in technological processes or biological ecosystems. Our results demonstrate that genetic programs can improve real-world social systems that are usually much harder to understand and control than physical systems.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2017

An Inverse Problem Study: Credit Risk Ratings as a Determinant of Corporate Governance and Capital Structure in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies

Credit risk rating is shown to be a relevant determinant in order to estimate good corporate governance and to self-optimize capital structure. The conclusion is argued from a study on a selected (and justified) sample of (182) companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and which use the same Shanghai Brilliance Credit Rating & Investors Service Company assessment criteria, for their credit ratings, from 2010 to 2015. Practically, 3 debt ratios are examined in terms of 11 characteristic variables. Moreover, any relationship between credit rating and corporate governance can be thought to be an interesting finding. The relationship between credit rating and leverage is not as evident as that found by other researchers from different countries; it is significantly positively related to the outside director, firm size, tangible assets and firm age, and CEO and chairman office plurality. However, leverage is found to be negatively correlated with board size, profitability, growth opportunity, and non-debt tax shield. Credit rating is positively associated with leverage, but in a less significant way. CEO-Board chairship duality is insignificantly related to leverage. The non-debt tax shield is significantly correlated with leverage. The correlation coefficient between CEO duality and auditor is positive but weakly significant, but seems not consistent with expectations. Finally, profitability cause could be regarded as an interesting finding. Indeed, there is an inverse correlation between profitability and total debt (Notice that the result supports the pecking order theory). In conclusion, it appears that credit rating has less effect on the so listed large Chinese companies than in other countries. Nevertheless, the perspective of assessing credit risk rating by relevant agencies is indubitably a recommended time dependent leverage determinant.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2017

Benford's law first significant digit and distribution distances for testing the reliability of financial reports in developing countries

We discuss a common suspicion about reported financial data, in 10 industrial sectors of the 6 so called "main developing countries" over the time interval [2000-2014]. These data are examined through Benford's law first significant digit and through distribution distances tests. It is shown that several visually anomalous data have to be a priori removed. Thereafter, the distributions much better follow the first digit significant law, indicating the usefulness of a Benford's law test from the research starting line. The same holds true for distance tests. A few outliers are pointed out.

q-fin.ST↗