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Marcel Ausloos

Publications and source records attributed to Marcel Ausloos.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
arXiv2015

Inferring cultural regions from correlation networks of given baby names

We report investigations on the statistical characteristics of the baby names given between 1910 and 2010 in the United States of America. For each year, the 100 most frequent names in the USA are sorted out. For these names, the correlations between the names profiles are calculated for all pairs of states (minus Hawaii and Alaska). The correlations are used to form a weighted network which is found to vary mildly in time. In fact, the structure of communities in the network remains quite stable till about 1980. The goal is that the calculated structure approximately reproduces the usually accepted geopolitical regions: the North East, the South, and the "Midwest + West" as the third one. Furthermore, the dataset reveals that the name distribution satisfies the Zipf law, separately for each state and each year, i.e. the name frequency $f\propto r^{-α}$, where r is the name rank. Between 1920 and 1980, the exponent alpha is the largest one for the set of states classified as 'the South', but the smallest one for the set of states classified as "Midwest + West". Our interpretation is that the pool of selected names was quite narrow in the Southern states. The data is compared with some related statistics of names in Belgium, a country also with different regions, but having quite a different scale than the USA. There, the Zipf exponent is low for young people and for the Brussels citizens.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2015

Effect of religious rules on time of conception in Romania from 1905 to 2001

Population growth (or decay) in a country can be due to various f socio-economic constraints, as demonstrated in this paper. For example, sexual intercourse is banned in various religions, during Nativity and Lent fasting periods. Data consisting of registered daily birth records for very long (35,429 points) time series and many (24,947,061) babies in Romania between 1905 and 2001 (97 years) is analyzed. The data was obtained from the 1992 and 2002 censuses, thus on persons alive at that time. We grouped the population into two categories (Eastern Orthodox and Non-Orthodox) in order to distinguish religious constraints and performed extensive data analysis in a comparative manner for both groups. From such a long time series data analysis, it seems that the Lent fast has a more drastic effect than the Nativity fast over baby conception within the Eastern Orthodox population, thereby differently increasing the population ratio. Thereafter, we developed and tested econometric models where the dependent variable is the baby conception deduced day, while the independent variables are: (i) religious affiliation; (ii) Nativity and Lent fast time intervals; (iii) rurality; (iv) day length; (v) weekend, and (vi) a trend background. Our findings are concordant with other papers, proving differences between religious groups on conception, - although reaching different conclusions regarding the influence of weather on fertility. The approach seems a useful hint for developing econometric-like models in other sociophysics prone cases.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2015

Quantifying the quality of peer reviewers through Zipf's law

This paper introduces a statistical and other analysis of peer reviewers in order to approach their "quality" through some quantification measure, thereby leading to some quality metrics. Peer reviewer reports for the Journal of the Serbian Chemical Society are examined. The text of each report has first to be adapted to word counting software in order to avoid jargon inducing confusion when searching for the word frequency: e.g. C must be distinguished, depending if it means Carbon or Celsius, etc. Thus, every report has to be carefully "rewritten". Thereafter, the quantity, variety and distribution of words are examined in each report and compared to the whole set. Two separate months, according when reports came in, are distinguished to observe any possible hidden spurious effects. Coherence is found. An empirical distribution is searched for through a Zipf-Pareto rank-size law. It is observed that peer review reports are very far from usual texts in this respect. Deviations from the usual (first) Zipf's law are discussed. A theoretical suggestion for the "best (or worst) report" and by extension "good (or bad) reviewer", within this context, is provided from an entropy argument, through the concept of "distance to average" behavior. Another entropy-based measure also allows to measure the journal reviews (whence reviewers) for further comparison with other journals through their own reviewer reports.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2015

France new regions planning? Better order or more disorder ?

This paper grounds the critique of the 'reduction of regions in a country' not only in its geographical and social context but also in its entropic space. The various recent plans leading to the reduction of the number of regions in metropolitan France are discussed, based on the mere distribution in the number of cities in the plans and analyzed according to various distribution laws. Each case, except the present distribution with 22 regions, on the mainland, does not seem to fit presently used theoretical models. Beside, the number of inhabitants is examined in each plan. The same conclusion holds. Therefore a theoretical argument based on entropy considerations is proposed, thereby pointing to whether more order or less disorder is the key question, - discounting political considerations.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2015

Review times in peer review: quantitative analysis of editorial workflows

We examine selected aspects of peer review and suggest possible improvements. To this end, we analyse a dataset containing information about 300 papers submitted to the Biochemistry and Biotechnology section of the Journal of the Serbian Chemical Society. After separating the peer review process into stages that each review has to go through, we use a weighted directed graph to describe it in a probabilistic manner and test the impact of some modifications of the editorial policy on the efficiency of the whole process.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2015

Test of two hypotheses explaining the size of populations in a system of cities

Two classical hypotheses are examined about the population growth in a system of cities: Hypothesis 1 pertains to Gibrat's and Zipf's theory which states that the city growth-decay process is size independent; Hypothesis 2 pertains to the so called Yule process which states that the growth of populations in cities happens when (i) the distribution of the city population initial size obeys a log-normal function, (ii) the growth of the settlements follows a stochastic process. The basis for the test is some official data on Bulgarian cities at various times. This system was chosen because (i) Bulgaria is a country for which one does not expect biased theoretical conditions; (ii) the city populations were determined rather precisely. The present results show that: (i) the population size growth of the Bulgarian cities is size dependent, whence Hypothesis 1 is not confirmed for Bulgaria; (ii) the population size growth of Bulgarian cities can be described by a double Pareto log-normal distribution, whence Hypothesis 2 is valid for the Bulgarian city system. It is expected that this fine study brings some information and light on other, usually considered to be more pertinent, city systems in various countries.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2015

Slow-down or speed-up of inter- and intra-cluster diffusion of controversial knowledge in stubborn communities based on a small world network

Diffusion of knowledge is expected to be huge when agents are open minded. The report concerns a more difficult diffusion case when communities are made of stubborn agents. Communities having markedly different opinions are for example the Neocreationist and Intelligent Design Proponents (IDP), on one hand, and the Darwinian Evolution Defenders (DED), on the other hand. The case of knowledge diffusion within such communities is studied here on a network based on an adjacency matrix built from time ordered selected quotations of agents, whence for inter- and intra-communities. The network is intrinsically directed and not necessarily reciprocal. Thus, the adjacency matrices have complex eigenvalues, the eigenvectors present complex components. A quantification of the slow-down or speed-up effects of information diffusion in such temporal networks, with non-Markovian contact sequences, can be made by comparing the real time dependent (directed) network to its counterpart, the time aggregated (undirected) network, - which has real eigenvalues. In order to do so, small world networks which both contain an $odd$ number of nodes are studied and compared to similar networks with an $even$ number of nodes. It is found that (i) the diffusion of knowledge is more difficult on the largest networks, (ii) the network size influences the slowing-down or speeding-up diffusion process. Interestingly, it is observed that (iii) the diffusion of knowledge is slower in IDP and faster in DED communities. It is suggested that the finding can be "rationalized", if some "scientific quality" and "publication habit" is attributed to the agents, as common sense would guess. This finding offers some opening discussion toward tying scientific knowledge to belief.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2015

Coherent measures of the impact of co-authors in peer review journals and in proceedings publications

This paper focuses on the coauthor effect in different types of publications, usually not equally respected in measuring research impact. {\it A priori} unexpected relationships are found between the total coauthor core value, $m_a$, of a leading investigator (LI), and the related values for their publications in either peer review journals ($j$) or in proceedings ($p$). A surprisingly linear relationship is found: $ m_a^{(j)} + 0.4\;m_a^{(p)} = m_a^{(jp)} $. Furthermore, another relationship is found concerning the measure of the total number of citations, $A_a$, i.e. the surface of the citation size-rank histogram up to $m_a$. Another linear relationship exists : $A_a^{(j)} + 1.36\; A_a^{(p)} = A_a^{(jp)} $. These empirical findings coefficients (0.4 and 1.36) are supported by considerations based on an empirical power law found between the number of joint publications of an author and the rank of a coauthor. Moreover, a simple power law relationship is found between $m_a$ and the number ($r_M$) of coauthors of a LI: $m_a\simeq r_M^μ$; the power law exponent $μ$ depends on the type ($j$ or $p$) of publications. These simple relations, at this time limited to publications in physics, imply that coauthors are a "more positive measure" of a principal investigator role, in both types of scientific outputs, than the Hirsch index could indicate. Therefore, to scorn upon co-authors in publications, in particular in proceedings, is incorrect. On the contrary, the findings suggest an immediate test of coherence of scientific authorship in scientific policy processes.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2015

Cross Ranking of Cities and Regions: Population vs. Income

This paper explores the relationship between the inner economical structure of communities and their population distribution through a rank-rank analysis of official data, along statistical physics ideas within two techniques. The data is taken on Italian cities. The analysis is performed both at a global (national) and at a more local (regional) level in order to distinguish "macro" and "micro" aspects. First, the rank-size rule is found not to be a standard power law, as in many other studies, but a doubly decreasing power law. Next, the Kendall and the Spearman rank correlation coefficients which measure pair concordance and the correlation between fluctuations in two rankings, respectively, - as a correlation function does in thermodynamics, are calculated for finding rank correlation (if any) between demography and wealth. Results show non only global disparities for the whole (country) set, but also (regional) disparities, when comparing the number of cities in regions, the number of inhabitants in cities and that in regions, as well as when comparing the aggregated tax income of the cities and that of regions. Different outliers are pointed out and justified. Interestingly, two classes of cities in the country and two classes of regions in the country are found. "Common sense" social, political, and economic considerations sustain the findings. More importantly, the methods show that they allow to distinguish communities, very clearly, when specific criteria are numerically sound. A specific modeling for the findings is presented, i.e. for the doubly decreasing power law and the two phase system, based on statistics theory, e.g., urn filling. The model ideas can be expected to hold when similar rank relationship features are observed in fields. It is emphasized that the analysis makes more sense than one through a Pearson value-value correlation analysis.

econ.GN↗
arXiv2015

Religion-based Urbanization Process in Italy: Statistical Evidence from Demographic and Economic Data

This paper analyzes some economic and demographic features of Italians living in cities containing a Saint name in their appellation (hagiotoponyms). Demographic data come from the surveys done in the 15th (2011) Italian Census, while the economic wealth of such cities is explored through their recent [2007-2011] aggregated tax income (ATI). This cultural problem is treated from various points of view. First, the exact list of hagiotoponyms is obtained through linguistic and religiosity criteria. Next, it is examined how such cities are distributed in the Italian regions. Demographic and economic perspectives are also offered at the Saint level, i.e. calculating the cumulated values of the number of inhabitants and the ATI, "per Saint", as well as the corresponding relative values taking into account the Saint popularity. On one hand, frequency-size plots and cumulative distribution function plots, and on the other hand, scatter plots and rank-size plots between the various quantities are shown and discussed in order to find the importance of correlations between the variables. It is concluded that rank-rank correlations point to a strong Saint effect, which explains what actually Saint-based toponyms imply in terms of comparing economic and demographic data.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2015

Socio-economical analysis of Italy: The case of hagiotoponym cities

This paper pursues the scopes of joining the economical characteristics of Italian cities with a relevant sociological aspect: the cult of the catholic Saints. Indeed, more than in other Countries, a high percentage of Italian cities has a toponym coming from the name of specific Saints (hagiotoponym). The assessment of the historical origin of each hagiotoponym is out of the scopes of the present paper, but the link with the religious sense of Italians seems to be clear. The statistical analysis of the economic contributions that each hagiotoponym city provides to the Italian GDP is here performed. Such an analysis is also based on the comparison with the overall Italian data, and it is carried out through the computation of the Theil, Gini and Herfindahl-Hirschman indices.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2015

Assessing the true role of coauthors in the h-index measure of an author scientific impact

A method based on the classical principal component analysis leads to demonstrate that the role of co-authors should give a h-index measure to a group leader higher than usually accepted. The method rather easily gives what is usually searched for, i.e. an estimate of the role (or "weight") of co-authors, as the additional value to an author papers' popularity. The construction of the co-authorship popularity H-matrix is exemplified and the role of eigenvalues and the main eigenvector component are discussed. An example illustrates the points and serves as the basis for suggesting a generally practical application of the concept.

cs.DL↗
arXiv2014

A biased view of a few possible components when reflecting on the present decade financial and economic crisis

Is the present economic and financial crisis similar to some previous one? It would be so nice to prove that universality laws exist for predicting such rare events under a minimum set of realistic hypotheses. First, I briefly recall whether patterns, like business cycles, are indeed found, and can be modeled within a statistical physics, or econophysics, framework. I point to a simulation model for describing such so called business cycles, under exo- and endo-genous conditions I discuss self-organized and provoked crashes and their predictions. I emphasize the role of an of- ten forgotten ingredient: the time delay in the information flow. I wonder about the information content of financial data, its mis-interpretation and market manipulation.

q-fin.GN↗
arXiv2014

Evidence of Economic Regularities and Disparities of Italian Regions From Aggregated Tax Income Size Data

This paper discusses the size distribution, - in economic terms - of the Italian municipalities over the period 2007-2011. Yearly data are rather well fitted by a modified Lavalette law, while Zipf-Mandelbrot-Pareto law seems to fail in this doing. The analysis is performed either at a national as well as at a local (regional and provincial) level. Deviations are discussed as originating in so called king and vice-roy effects. Results confirm that Italy is shared among very different regional realities. The case of Lazio is puzzling.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2014

Assessing the Inequalities of Wealth in Regions: the Italian Case

This paper discusses region wealth size distributions, through their member cities aggregated tax income. As an illustration, the official data of the Italian Ministry of Economics and Finance has been considered, for all Italian municipalities, over the period 2007-2011. Yearly data of the aggregated tax income is transformed into a few indicators: the Gini, Theil, and Herfindahl-Hirschman indices. On one hand, the relative interest of each index is discussed. On the other hand, numerical results confirm that Italy is divided into very different regional realities, a few which are specifically outlined. This shows the interest of transforming data in an adequate manner and of comparing such indices.

econ.GN↗
arXiv2014

Benford's law predicted digit distribution of aggregated income taxes: the surprising conformity of Italian cities and regions

The yearly aggregated tax income data of all, more than 8000, Italian municipalities are analyzed for a period of five years, from 2007 to 2011, to search for conformity or not with Benford's law, a counter-intuitive phenomenon observed in large tabulated data where the occurrence of numbers having smaller initial digits is more favored than those with larger digits. This is done in anticipation that large deviations from Benford's law will be found in view of tax evasion supposedly being widespread across Italy. Contrary to expectations, we show that the overall tax income data for all these years is in excellent agreement with Benford's law. Furthermore, we also analyze the data of Calabria, Campania and Sicily, the three Italian regions known for strong presence of mafia, to see if there are any marked deviations from Benford's law. Again, we find that all yearly data sets for Calabria and Sicily agree with Benford's law whereas only the 2007 and 2008 yearly data show departures from the law for Campania. These results are again surprising in view of underground and illegal nature of economic activities of mafia which significantly contribute to tax evasion. Some hypothesis for the found conformity is presented.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2014

Intrinsic Classes in the Union of European Football Associations Soccer Team Ranking

A strong structural regularity of classes is found in soccer teams ranked by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) for the time interval 2009-2014. It concerns 424 to 453 teams according to the 5 competition seasons. The analysis is based on the rank-size theory considerations, the size being the UEFA coefficient at the end of a season. Three classes emerge: (i) the few "top" teams, (ii) 300 teams, (iii) the rest of the involved teams (about 150) in the tail of the distribution. There are marked empirical laws describing each class. A 3-parameter Lavalette function is used to describe the concave curving as the rank increases, and to distinguish the the tail from the central behavior.

stat.AP↗