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Marcelo Alvarez

Publications and source records attributed to Marcelo Alvarez.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2025

Impact of Simulation Box Size for Weak Lensing: Replication and Super-Sample Effects

We quantify the bias caused by small simulation box size on weak lensing observables and covariances, considering both replication and super-sample effects for a range of higher-order statistics. Using two simulation suites -- one comprising large boxes ($3750\,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$) and another constructed by tiling small boxes ($625\,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$) -- we generate full-sky convergence maps and extract $10^\circ \times 10^\circ$ patches via a Fibonacci grid. We consider biases in the mean and covariance of the angular power spectrum, bispectrum (up to $\ell=3000$), PDF, peak/minima counts, and Minkowski functionals. By first identifying lines of sight that are impacted by replications, we find that replication causes a O$(10\%)$ bias in the PDF and Minkowski functionals, and a O$(1\%)$ bias in other summary statistics. Replication also causes a O$(10\%)$ bias in the covariances, increasing with source redshift and $\ell$, reaching $\sim25\%$ for $z_s=2.5$. We additionally show that replication leads to heavy biases (up to O$(100\%)$ at high redshift) when performing gnomonic projection on a patch that is centered along a direction of replication. We then identify the lines of sight that are minimally affected by replication, and use the corresponding patches to isolate and study super-sample effects, finding that, while the mean values agree to within $1\%$, the variances differ by O$(10\%)$ for $z_s\leq2.5$. We show that these effects remain in the presence of noise and smoothing scales typical of the DES, KiDS, HSC, LSST, Euclid, and Roman surveys. We also discuss how these effects scale as a function of box size. Our results highlight the importance of large simulation volumes for accurate lensing statistics and covariance estimation.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2023

Impact of Self-shielding Minihalos on the Ly$\alpha$ Forest at High Redshift

Dense gas in minihalos with masses of $10^6-10^8~M_\odot$ can shield themselves from reionization for $\sim100$ Myr after being exposed to the UV background. These self-shielded systems, often unresolved in cosmological simulations, can introduce strong absorption in quasar spectra. This paper is the first systematic study on the impact of these systems on the Ly$\alpha$ forest. We first derive the HI column density profile of photoevaporating minihalos by conducting 1D radiation-hydrodynamics simulations. We utilize these results to estimate the Ly$\alpha$ opacity from minihalos in a large-scale simulation that cannot resolve self-shielding. When the ionization rate of the background radiation is $0.03\times10^{-12}~{\rm s}^{-1}$, as expected near the end of reionization at $z\sim5.5$, we find that the incidence rate of damped Ly$\alpha$ absorbers increases by a factor of $\sim2-4$ compared to at $z=4.5$. The Ly$\alpha$ flux is, on average, suppressed by $\sim 3\%$ of its mean due to minihalos. The absorption features enhance the 1D power spectrum up to $\sim5\%$ at $k\sim0.1~h~{\rm Mpc}^{-1}~({\rm or}~10^{-3}~{\rm km}^{-1}~{\rm s})$, which is comparable to the enhancement caused by inhomogeneous reionization. The flux is particularly suppressed in the vicinity of large halos along the line-of-sight direction at separations of up to $10~h^{-1}~{\rm Mpc}$ at $r_\perp\lesssim2~h^{-1}~{\rm Mpc}$. However, these effects become much smaller for higher ionizing rates ($\gtrsim0.3\times10^{-12}~{\rm s}^{-1}$) expected in the post-reionization Universe. Our findings highlight the need to consider minihalo absorption when interpreting the Ly$\alpha$ forest at $z\gtrsim5.5$. Moreover, the sensitivity of these quantities to the ionizing background intensity can be exploited to constrain the intensity itself.

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arXiv2022

Snowmass 2021 CMB-S4 White Paper

This Snowmass 2021 White Paper describes the Cosmic Microwave Background Stage 4 project CMB-S4, which is designed to cross critical thresholds in our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Universe, from the highest energies at the dawn of time through the growth of structure to the present day. We provide an overview of the science case, the technical design, and project plan.

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arXiv2022

Data Preservation for Cosmology

We describe the needs and opportunities for preserving cosmology datasets and simulations, and facilitating their joint analysis beyond the lifetime of individual projects. We recommend that DOE fund a new cosmology data archive center to coordinate this work across the multiple DOE computing facilities.

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arXiv2020

CMB-S4: Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves

CMB-S4---the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment---is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Universe, from the highest energies at the dawn of time through the growth of structure to the present day. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semi-analytic projection tool, targeted explicitly towards optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2--3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semi-analytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for $r > 0.003$ at greater than $5\sigma$, or, in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of $r < 0.001$ at $95\%$ CL.

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arXiv2019

Microwave Spectro-Polarimetry of Matter and Radiation across Space and Time

This paper discusses the science case for a sensitive spectro-polarimetric survey of the microwave sky. Such a survey would provide a tomographic and dynamic census of the three-dimensional distribution of hot gas, velocity flows, early metals, dust, and mass distribution in the entire Hubble volume, exploit CMB temperature and polarisation anisotropies down to fundamental limits, and track energy injection and absorption into the radiation background across cosmic times by measuring spectral distortions of the CMB blackbody emission. In addition to its exceptional capability for cosmology and fundamental physics, such a survey would provide an unprecedented view of microwave emissions at sub-arcminute to few-arcminute angular resolution in hundreds of frequency channels, a data set that would be of immense legacy value for many branches of astrophysics. We propose that this survey be carried-out with a large space mission featuring a broad-band polarised imager and a moderate resolution spectro-imager at the focus of a 3.5m aperture telescope actively cooled to about 8K, complemented with absolutely-calibrated Fourier Transform Spectrometer modules observing at degree-scale angular resolution in the 10-2000 GHz frequency range. We propose two observing modes: a survey mode to map the entire sky as well as a few selected wide fields, and an observatory mode for deeper observations of regions of specific interest.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2019

CMB-S4 Decadal Survey APC White Paper

We provide an overview of the science case, instrument configuration and project plan for the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background experiment CMB-S4, for consideration by the 2020 Decadal Survey.

astro-ph.IM↗
arXiv2019

Tomography of the Cosmic Dawn and Reionization Eras with Multiple Tracers

The Cosmic Dawn and Reionization epochs remain a fundamental but challenging frontier of astrophysics and cosmology. We advocate a large-scale, multi-tracer approach to develop a comprehensive understanding of the physics that led to the formation and evolution of the first stars and galaxies. We highlight the line intensity mapping technique to trace the multi-phase reionization topology on large scales, and measure reionization history in detail. Besides 21cm, we advocate for Lya tomography mapping during the epoch of Wouthuysen-Field coupling as an additional probe of the cosmic dawn era.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2019

Astro2020 Science White Paper: Synergies Between Galaxy Surveys and Reionization Measurements

The early phases of galaxy formation constitute one of the most exciting frontiers in astrophysics. It is during this era that the first luminous sources reionize the intergalactic medium - the moment when structure formation affects every baryon in the Universe. Here we argue that we will obtain a complete picture of this era by combining observations of galaxies with direct measurements of the reionization process: the former will provide a detailed understanding of bright sources, while the latter will constrain the (substantial) faint source population. We further describe how optimizing the comparison of these two measurements requires near-infrared galaxy surveys covering large volumes and retaining redshift information and also improvements in 21-cm analysis, moving those experiments into the imaging regime.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2019

Astro2020 Science White Paper: Insights Into the Epoch of Reionization with the Highly-Redshifted 21-cm Line

The epoch of reionization, when photons from early galaxies ionized the intergalactic medium about a billion years after the Big Bang, is the last major phase transition in the Universe's history. Measuring the characteristics of the transition is important for understanding early galaxies and the cosmic web and for modeling dwarf galaxies in the later Universe. But such measurements require probes of the intergalactic medium itself. Here we describe how the 21-cm line of neutral hydrogen provides a powerful probe of the reionization process and therefore important constraints on both the galaxies and intergalactic absorbers at that time. While existing experiments will make precise statistical measurements over the next decade, we argue that improved 21-cm analysis techniques - allowing imaging of the neutral gas itself - as well as improved theoretical models, are crucial for testing our understanding of this important era.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2019

Astro 2020 Science White Paper: Fundamental Cosmology in the Dark Ages with 21-cm Line Fluctuations

The Dark Ages are the period between the last scattering of the cosmic microwave background and the appearance of the first luminous sources, spanning approximately 1100 < z < 30. The only known way to measure fluctuations in this era is through the 21-cm line of neutral hydrogen. Such observations have enormous potential for cosmology, because they span a large volume while the fluctuations remain linear even on small scales. Observations of 21-cm fluctuations during this era can therefore constrain fundamental aspects of our Universe, including inflation and any exotic physics of dark matter. While the observational challenges to these low-frequency 21-cm observations are enormous, especially from the terrestrial environment, they represent an important goal for cosmology.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2019

Astro2020 Science White Paper: First Stars and Black Holes at Cosmic Dawn with Redshifted 21-cm Observations

The "cosmic dawn" refers to the period of the Universe's history when stars and black holes first formed and began heating and ionizing hydrogen in the intergalactic medium (IGM). Though exceedingly difficult to detect directly, the first stars and black holes can be constrained indirectly through measurements of the cosmic 21-cm background, which traces the ionization state and temperature of intergalactic hydrogen gas. In this white paper, we focus on the science case for such observations, in particular those targeting redshifts z $\gtrsim$ 10 when the IGM is expected to be mostly neutral. 21-cm observations provide a unique window into this epoch and are thus critical to advancing first star and black hole science in the next decade.

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arXiv2019

Cosmology with the Highly Redshifted 21cm Line

In addition to being a probe of Cosmic Dawn and Epoch of Reionization astrophysics, the 21cm line at $z>6$ is also a powerful way to constrain cosmology. Its power derives from several unique capabilities. First, the 21cm line is sensitive to energy injections into the intergalactic medium at high redshifts. It also increases the number of measurable modes compared to existing cosmological probes by orders of magnitude. Many of these modes are on smaller scales than are accessible via the CMB, and moreover have the advantage of being firmly in the linear regime (making them easy to model theoretically). Finally, the 21cm line provides access to redshifts prior to the formation of luminous objects. Together, these features of 21cm cosmology at $z>6$ provide multiple pathways toward precise cosmological constraints. These include the "marginalizing out" of astrophysical effects, the utilization of redshift space distortions, the breaking of CMB degeneracies, the identification of signatures of relative velocities between baryons and dark matter, and the discovery of unexpected signs of physics beyond the $\Lambda$CDM paradigm at high redshifts.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2019

Cosmic Dawn and Reionization: Astrophysics in the Final Frontier

The cosmic dawn and epoch of reionization mark the time period in the universe when stars, galaxies, and blackhole seeds first formed and the intergalactic medium changed from neutral to an ionized one. Despite substantial progress with multi-wavelength observations, astrophysical process during this time period remain some of the least understood with large uncertainties on our existing models of galaxy, blackhole, and structure formation. This white paper outlines the current state of knowledge and anticipated scientific outcomes with ground and space-based astronomical facilities in the 2020s. We then propose a number of scientific goals and objectives for new facilities in late 2020s to mid 2030s that will lead to definitive measurements of key astrophysical processes in the epoch of reionization and cosmic dawn.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2019

PICO: Probe of Inflation and Cosmic Origins

The Probe of Inflation and Cosmic Origins (PICO) is an imaging polarimeter that will scan the sky for 5 years in 21 frequency bands spread between 21 and 799 GHz. It will produce full-sky surveys of intensity and polarization with a final combined-map noise level of 0.87 $\mu$K arcmin for the required specifications, equivalent to 3300 Planck missions, and with our current best-estimate would have a noise level of 0.61 $\mu$K arcmin (6400 Planck missions). PICO will either determine the energy scale of inflation by detecting the tensor to scalar ratio at a level $r=5\times 10^{-4}~(5\sigma)$, or will rule out with more than $5\sigma$ all inflation models for which the characteristic scale in the potential is the Planck scale. With LSST's data it could rule out all models of slow-roll inflation. PICO will detect the sum of neutrino masses at $>4\sigma$, constrain the effective number of light particle species with $\Delta N_{\rm eff}<0.06~(2\sigma)$, and elucidate processes affecting the evolution of cosmic structures by measuring the optical depth to reionization with errors limited by cosmic variance and by constraining the evolution of the amplitude of linear fluctuations $\sigma_{8}(z)$ with sub-percent accuracy. Cross-correlating PICO's map of the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect with LSST's gold sample of galaxies will precisely trace the evolution of thermal pressure with $z$. PICO's maps of the Milky Way will be used to determine the make up of galactic dust and the role of magnetic fields in star formation efficiency. With 21 full sky legacy maps in intensity and polarization, which cannot be obtained in any other way, the mission will enrich many areas of astrophysics. PICO is the only single-platform instrument with the combination of sensitivity, angular resolution, frequency bands, and control of systematic effects that can deliver this compelling, timely, and broad science.

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arXiv2018

Joint power spectrum and voxel intensity distribution forecast on the CO luminosity function with COMAP

We develop a framework for joint constraints on the CO luminosity function based on power spectra (PS) and voxel intensity distributions (VID), and apply this to simulations of COMAP, a CO intensity mapping experiment. This Bayesian framework is based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler coupled to a Gaussian likelihood with a joint PS + VID covariance matrix computed from a large number of fiducial simulations, and re-calibrated with a small number of simulations per MCMC step. The simulations are based on dark matter halos from fast peak patch simulations combined with the $L_\text{CO}(M_\text{halo})$ model of Li et al. (2016). We find that the relative power to constrain the CO luminosity function depends on the luminosity range of interest. In particular, the VID is more sensitive at both small and large luminosities, while the PS is more sensitive at intermediate luminosities. The joint analysis is superior to using either observable separately. When averaging over CO luminosities ranging between $L_\text{CO} = 10^4-10^7L_\odot$, and over 10 cosmological realizations of COMAP Phase 2, the uncertainties (in dex) are larger by 58 % and 30 % for the PS and VID, respectively, when compared to the joint analysis (PS + VID). This method is generally applicable to any other random field, with a complicated likelihood, as long a fast simulation procedure is available.

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arXiv2018

PICO - the probe of inflation and cosmic origins

The Probe of Inflation and Cosmic Origins (PICO) is a NASA-funded study of a Probe-class mission concept. The top-level science objectives are to probe the physics of the Big Bang by measuring or constraining the energy scale of inflation, probe fundamental physics by measuring the number of light particles in the Universe and the sum of neutrino masses, to measure the reionization history of the Universe, and to understand the mechanisms driving the cosmic star formation history, and the physics of the galactic magnetic field. PICO would have multiple frequency bands between 21 and 799 GHz, and would survey the entire sky, producing maps of the polarization of the cosmic microwave background radiation, of galactic dust, of synchrotron radiation, and of various populations of point sources. Several instrument configurations, optical systems, cooling architectures, and detector and readout technologies have been and continue to be considered in the development of the mission concept. We will present a snapshot of the baseline mission concept currently under development.

astro-ph.IM↗