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Marcin Wątorek

Publications and source records attributed to Marcin Wątorek.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Some Twitch chats exhibit multifractal characteristics resembling stream-of-consciousness narrative

Live-streaming platforms generate high-frequency records of collective human activity in which many loosely coordinated users react in real time to shared external stimuli and to one another. We investigate whether the temporal organization of Twitch chat messages exhibits multifractal signatures characteristic of complex dynamical systems. Selected high-activity chats were converted into time series by measuring the length of each consecutive message in words, with platform emotes treated as individual tokens. The resulting signals display heterogeneous fluctuations, bursty organization, and heavy-tailed distributions that, in several cases, are better captured by q-Weibull forms than by conventional light-tailed models. Autocorrelation analysis reveals persistent temporal dependence over broad ranges of message lags, indicating that the variability is not produced by independent message generation alone. MFDFA shows that some chats possess well-developed multifractal spectra and generalized Hurst exponents strongly dependent on moment order, whereas others exhibit weak scaling, approximately monofractal behavior, or no well-defined scaling regime. Surrogate tests indicate that temporal correlations are essential for the observed multifractality, while heavy tails enhance its apparent strength. Under particular dynamical conditions, Twitch chat may therefore form an emergent collective signal whose fragmented, reactive, associative, and multiscale organization is structurally reminiscent of stream-of-consciousness narrative. This expression is used strictly as a structural and dynamical analogy, not as a claim of a unified collective mind or of semantic, cognitive, or phenomenological equivalence with literary stream-of-consciousness writing. The results position live-stream chat dynamics within the broader physics of complex, intermittent, human-generated signals.

cs.SI↗

Detecting unusual trading patterns on cryptocurrency exchanges by means of complexity measures

Artificial transaction generation remains an important source of potential market manipulation on cryptocurrency exchanges, as it may distort reported liquidity and reduce market transparency. This study proposes a diagnostic framework for detecting unusual trading patterns based on complexity and statistical-structure measures derived from high-frequency trade-level data. The analysis considers log-returns, trading volume, and transaction counts, using tail distributions, autocorrelation functions, multifractal characteristics, approximate entropy, and detrended cross-correlations. The methodology is applied to BTC, ETH, and XRP traded on Binance, Bitget, KuCoin, and Kraken over the period from April 1 to June 30, 2025. The results reveal a pronounced anomaly on Bitget for BTC and ETH after mid-May 2025. The number of transactions increases sharply, but there is no proportional increase in traded volume or return fluctuations. This regime is characterised by numerous low-volume trades, weaker autocorrelations, reduced multifractal organisation, higher short-pattern irregularity, and weaker cross-correlations involving the transaction-count series. These features are consistent with a noise-like component in trading activity and may indicate artificially increased transaction counts, although they do not provide direct proof of wash trading. The findings show that complexity-based indicators can be useful for detecting exchange-specific trading anomalies that remain hidden in price-based measures.

q-fin.TR↗

Detrended cross-correlations and their random matrix limit: an example from the cryptocurrency market

Correlations in complex systems are often obscured by nonstationarity, long-range memory, and heavy-tailed fluctuations, which limit the usefulness of traditional covariance-based analyses. To address these challenges, we construct scale and fluctuation-dependent correlation matrices using the multifractal detrended cross-correlation coefficient $ρ_r$ that selectively emphasizes fluctuations of different amplitudes. We examine the spectral properties of these detrended correlation matrices and compare them to the spectral properties of the matrices calculated in the same way from synthetic Gaussian and $q$Gaussian signals. Our results show that detrending, heavy tails, and the fluctuation-order parameter $r$ jointly produce spectra, which substantially depart from the random case even under absence of cross-correlations in time series. Applying this framework to one-minute returns of 140 major cryptocurrencies from 2021-2024 reveals robust collective modes, including a dominant market factor and several sectoral components whose strength depends on the analyzed scale and fluctuation order. After filtering out the market mode, the empirical eigenvalue bulk aligns closely with the limit of random detrended cross-correlations, enabling clear identification of structurally significant outliers. Overall, the study provides a refined spectral baseline for detrended cross-correlations and offers a promising tool for distinguishing genuine interdependencies from noise in complex, nonstationary, heavy-tailed systems.

q-fin.ST↗

Filtering amplitude dependence of correlation dynamics in complex systems: application to the cryptocurrency market

Based on the cryptocurrency market dynamics, this study presents a general methodology for analyzing evolving correlation structures in complex systems using the $q$-dependent detrended cross-correlation coefficient ρ(q,s). By extending traditional metrics, this approach captures correlations at varying fluctuation amplitudes and time scales. The method employs $q$-dependent minimum spanning trees ($q$MSTs) to visualize evolving network structures. Using minute-by-minute exchange rate data for 140 cryptocurrencies on Binance (Jan 2021-Oct 2024), a rolling window analysis reveals significant shifts in $q$MSTs, notably around April 2022 during the Terra/Luna crash. Initially centralized around Bitcoin (BTC), the network later decentralized, with Ethereum (ETH) and others gaining prominence. Spectral analysis confirms BTC's declining dominance and increased diversification among assets. A key finding is that medium-scale fluctuations exhibit stronger correlations than large-scale ones, with $q$MSTs based on the latter being more decentralized. Properly exploiting such facts may offer the possibility of a more flexible optimal portfolio construction. Distance metrics highlight that major disruptions amplify correlation differences, leading to fully decentralized structures during crashes. These results demonstrate $q$MSTs' effectiveness in uncovering fluctuation-dependent correlations, with potential applications beyond finance, including biology, social and other complex systems.

q-fin.ST↗

Multifractality and its sources in the digital currency market

Multifractality in time series analysis characterizes the presence of multiple scaling exponents, indicating heterogeneous temporal structures and complex dynamical behaviors beyond simple monofractal models. In the context of digital currency markets, multifractal properties arise due to the interplay of long-range temporal correlations and heavy-tailed distributions of returns, reflecting intricate market microstructure and trader interactions. Incorporating multifractal analysis into the modeling of cryptocurrency price dynamics enhances the understanding of market inefficiencies, may improve volatility forecasting and facilitate the detection of critical transitions or regime shifts. Based on the multifractal cross-correlation analysis (MFCCA) whose spacial case is the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA), as the most commonly used practical tools for quantifying multifractality, in the present contribution a recently proposed method of disentangling sources of multifractality in time series was applied to the most representative instruments from the digital market. They include Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), decentralized exchanges (DEX) and non-fungible tokens (NFT). The results indicate the significant role of heavy tails in generating a broad multifractal spectrum. However, they also clearly demonstrate that the primary source of multifractality are temporal correlations in the series, and without them, multifractality fades out. It appears characteristic that these temporal correlations, to a large extent, do not depend on the thickness of the tails of the fluctuation distribution. These observations, made here in the context of the digital currency market, provide a further strong argument for the validity of the proposed methodology of disentangling sources of multifractality in time series.

q-fin.ST↗

Disentangling sources of multifractality in time series

This contribution addresses the question commonly asked in scientific literature about the sources of multifractality in time series. Two primary sources are typically considered. These are temporal correlations and heavy tails in the distribution of fluctuations. Most often, they are treated as two independent components, while true multifractality cannot occur without temporal correlations. The distributions of fluctuations affect the span of the multifractal spectrum only when correlations are present. These issues are illustrated here using series generated by several model mathematical cascades, which by design build correlations into these series. The thickness of the tails of fluctuations in such series is then governed by an appropriate procedure of adjusting them to $q$-Gaussian distributions, and $q$ is treated as a variable parameter that, while preserving correlations, allows to tune these distributions to the desired functional form. Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA), as the most commonly used practical method for quantifying multifractality, is then used to identify the influence of the thickness of the fluctuation tails in the presence of temporal correlations on the width of multifractal spectra. The obtained results point to the Gaussian distribution, so $q=1$, as the appropriate reference distribution to evaluate the contribution of fatter tails to the width of multifractal spectra. An appropriate procedure is presented to make such estimates.

physics.data-an↗

Approaching multifractal complexity in decentralized cryptocurrency trading

Multifractality is a concept that helps compactly grasping the most essential features of the financial dynamics. In its fully developed form, this concept applies to essentially all mature financial markets and even to more liquid cryptocurrencies traded on the centralized exchanges. A new element that adds complexity to cryptocurrency markets is the possibility of decentralized trading. Based on the extracted tick-by-tick transaction data from the Universal Router contract of the Uniswap decentralized exchange, from June 6, 2023, to June 30, 2024, the present study using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) shows that even though liquidity on these new exchanges is still much lower compared to centralized exchanges convincing traces of multifractality are already emerging on this new trading as well. The resulting multifractal spectra are however strongly left-side asymmetric which indicates that this multifractality comes primarily from large fluctuations and small ones are more of the uncorrelated noise type. What is particularly interesting here is the fact that multifractality is more developed for time series representing transaction volumes than rates of return. On the level of these larger events a trace of multifractal cross-correlations between the two characteristics is also observed.

q-fin.ST↗

Correlations versus noise in the NFT market

The non-fungible token (NFT) market emerges as a recent trading innovation leveraging blockchain technology, mirroring the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. The current study is based on the capitalization changes and transaction volumes across a large number of token collections on the Ethereum platform. In order to deepen the understanding of the market dynamics, the collection-collection dependencies are examined by using the multivariate formalism of detrended correlation coefficient and correlation matrix. It appears that correlation strength is lower here than that observed in previously studied markets. Consequently, the eigenvalue spectra of the correlation matrix more closely follow the Marchenko-Pastur distribution, still, some departures indicating the existence of correlations remain. The comparison of results obtained from the correlation matrix built from the Pearson coefficients and, independently, from the detrended cross-correlation coefficients suggests that the global correlations in the NFT market arise from higher frequency fluctuations. Corresponding minimal spanning trees (MSTs) for capitalization variability exhibit a scale-free character while, for the number of transactions, they are somewhat more decentralized.

q-fin.ST↗

Multifractal organization of EEG signals in Multiple Sclerosis

Quantifying the complex/multifractal organization of the brain signals is crucial to fully understanding the brain processes and structure. In this contribution, we performed the multifractal analysis of the electroencephalographic (EEG) data obtained from a controlled multiple sclerosis (MS) study, focusing on the correlation between the degree of multifractality, disease duration, and disability level. Our results reveal a significant correspondence between the complexity of the time series and multiple sclerosis development, quantified respectively by scaling exponents and the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Namely, for some brain regions, a well-developed multifractality and little persistence of the time series were identified in patients with a high level of disability, whereas the control group and patients with low EDSS were characterised by persistence and monofractality of the signals. The analysis of the cross-correlations between EEG signals supported these results, with the most significant differences identified for patients with EDSS $> 1$ and the combined group of patients with EDSS $\leq 1$ and controls. No association between the multifractality and disease duration was observed, indicating that the multifractal organisation of the data is a hallmark of developing the disease. The observed complexity/multifractality of EEG signals is hypothetically a result of neuronal compensation -- i.e., of optimizing neural processes in the presence of structural brain degeneration. The presented study is highly relevant due to the multifractal formalism used to quantify complexity and due to scarce resting-state EEG evidence for cortical reorganization associated with compensation.

q-bio.NC↗

Characteristics of price related fluctuations in Non-Fungible Token (NFT) market

A non-fungible token (NFT) market is a new trading invention based on the blockchain technology which parallels the cryptocurrency market. In the present work we study capitalization, floor price, the number of transactions, the inter-transaction times, and the transaction volume value of a few selected popular token collections. The results show that the fluctuations of all these quantities are characterized by heavy-tailed probability distribution functions, in most cases well described by the stretched exponentials, with a trace of power-law scaling at times, long-range memory, and in several cases even the fractal organization of fluctuations, mostly restricted to the larger fluctuations, however. We conclude that the NFT market - even though young and governed by a somewhat different mechanisms of trading - shares several statistical properties with the regular financial markets. However, some differences are visible in the specific quantitative indicators.

q-fin.CP↗

Decomposing cryptocurrency high-frequency price dynamics into recurring and noisy components

This paper investigates the temporal patterns of activity in the cryptocurrency market with a focus on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and WINkLink from January 2020 to December 2022. Market activity measures - logarithmic returns, volume, and transaction number, sampled every 10 seconds, were divided into intraday and intraweek periods and then further decomposed into recurring and noise components via correlation matrix formalism. The key findings include the distinctive market behavior from traditional stock markets due to the nonexistence of trade opening and closing. This was manifest in three enhanced-activity phases aligning with Asian, European, and U.S. trading sessions. An intriguing pattern of activity surge in 15-minute intervals, particularly at full hours, was also noticed, implying the potential role of algorithmic trading. Most notably, recurring bursts of activity in bitcoin and ether were identified to coincide with the release times of significant U.S. macroeconomic reports such as Nonfarm payrolls, Consumer Price Index data, and Federal Reserve statements. The most correlated daily patterns of activity occurred in 2022, possibly reflecting the documented correlations with U.S. stock indices in the same period. Factors that are external to the inner market dynamics are found to be responsible for the repeatable components of the market dynamics, while the internal factors appear to be substantially random, which manifests itself in a good agreement between the empirical eigenvalue distributions in their bulk and the random matrix theory predictions expressed by the Marchenko-Pastur distribution. The findings reported support the growing integration of cryptocurrencies into the global financial markets.

q-fin.TR↗

What is mature and what is still emerging in the cryptocurrency market?

In relation to the traditional financial markets, the cryptocurrency market is a recent invention and the trading dynamics of all its components are readily recorded and stored. This fact opens up a unique opportunity to follow the multidimensional trajectory of its development since inception up to the present time. Several main characteristics commonly recognized as financial stylized facts of mature markets were quantitatively studied here. In particular, it is shown that the return distributions, volatility clustering effects, and even temporal multifractal correlations for a few highest-capitalization cryptocurrencies largely follow those of the well-established financial markets. The smaller cryptocurrencies are somewhat deficient in this regard, however. They are also not as highly cross-correlated among themselves and with other financial markets as the large cryptocurrencies. Quite generally, the volume V impact on price changes R appears to be much stronger on the cryptocurrency market than in the mature stock markets, and scales as $R(V) \sim V^α$ with $α\gtrsim 1$.

q-fin.ST↗

Cryptocurrencies Are Becoming Part of the World Global Financial Market

In this study the cross-correlations between the cryptocurrency market represented by the two most liquid and highest-capitalized cryptocurrencies: bitcoin and ethereum, on the one side, and the instruments representing the traditional financial markets: stock indices, Forex, commodities, on the other side, are measured in the period: January 2020--October 2022. Our purpose is to address the question whether the cryptocurrency market still preserves its autonomy with respect to the traditional financial markets or it has already aligned with them in expense of its independence. We are motivated by the fact that some previous related studies gave mixed results. By calculating the $q$-dependent detrended cross-correlation coefficient based on the high frequency 10 s data in the rolling window, the dependence on various time scales, different fluctuation magnitudes, and different market periods are examined. There is a strong indication that the dynamics of the bitcoin and ethereum price changes since the March 2020 Covid-19 panic is no longer independent. Instead, it is related to the dynamics of the traditional financial markets, which is especially evident now in 2022, when the bitcoin and ethereum coupling to the US tech stocks is observed during the market bear phase. It is also worth emphasizing that the cryptocurrencies have begun to react to the economic data such as the Consumer Price Index readings in a similar way as traditional instruments. Such a spontaneous coupling of the so far independent degrees of freedom can be interpreted as a kind of phase transition that resembles the collective phenomena typical for the complex systems. Our results indicate that the cryptocurrencies cannot be considered as a safe haven for the financial investments.

q-fin.ST↗

Task-dependent fractal patterns of information processing in working memory

We applied detrended fluctuation analysis, power spectral density, and eigenanalysis of detrended cross-correlations to investigate fMRI data representing a diurnal variation of working memory in four visual tasks: two verbal and two nonverbal. We show that the degree of fractal scaling is regionally dependent on engagement in cognitive tasks. A particularly apparent difference was found between memorisation in verbal and nonverbal tasks. Furthermore, the detrended cross-correlations between brain areas were predominantly indicative of differences between resting state and other tasks, between memorisation and retrieval, and between verbal and nonverbal tasks. The fractal and spectral analyses presented in our study are consistent with previous research related to visuospatial and verbal information processing, working memory (encoding and retrieval), and executive functions, but they were found to be more sensitive than Pearson correlations and showed the potential to obtain other subtler results. We conclude that regionally dependent cognitive task engagement can be distinguished based on the fractal characteristics of BOLD signals and their detrended cross-correlation structure.

q-bio.NC↗

Analysis of inter-transaction time fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market

We analyse tick-by-tick data representing major cryptocurrencies traded on some different cryptocurrency trading platforms. We focus on such quantities like the inter-transaction times, the number of transactions in time unit, the traded volume, and volatility. We show that the inter-transaction times show long-range power-law autocorrelations. These lead to multifractality expressed by the right-side asymmetry of the singularity spectra $f(α)$ indicating that the periods of increased market activity are characterised by richer multifractality compared to the periods of quiet market. We also show that neither the stretched exponential distribution nor the power-law-tail distribution are able to model universally the cumulative distribution functions of the quantities considered in this work. For each quantity, some data sets can be modeled by the former, some data sets by the latter, while both fail in other cases. An interesting, yet difficult to account for, observation is that parallel data sets from different trading platforms can show disparate statistical properties.

q-fin.ST↗

Multifractal cross-correlations of bitcoin and ether trading characteristics in the post-COVID-19 time

Unlike price fluctuations, the temporal structure of cryptocurrency trading has seldom been a subject of systematic study. In order to fill this gap, we analyse detrended correlations of the price returns, the average number of trades in time unit, and the traded volume based on high-frequency data representing two major cryptocurrencies: bitcoin and ether. We apply the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis, which is considered the most reliable method for identifying nonlinear correlations in time series. We find that all the quantities considered in our study show an unambiguous multifractal structure from both the univariate (auto-correlation) and bivariate (cross-correlation) perspectives. We looked at the bitcoin--ether cross-correlations in simultaneously recorded signals, as well as in time-lagged signals, in which a time series for one of the cryptocurrencies is shifted with respect to the other. Such a shift suppresses the cross-correlations partially for short time scales, but does not remove them completely. We did not observe any qualitative asymmetry in the results for the two choices of a leading asset. The cross-correlations for the simultaneous and lagged time series became the same in magnitude for the sufficiently long scales.

q-fin.ST↗

Cryptocurrency Market Consolidation in 2020--2021

Time series of price returns for 80 of the most liquid cryptocurrencies listed on Binance are investigated for the presence of detrended cross-correlations. A spectral analysis of the detrended correlation matrix and a topological analysis of the minimal spanning trees calculated based on this matrix are applied for different positions of a moving window. The cryptocurrencies become more strongly cross-correlated among themselves than they used to be before. The average cross-correlations increase with time on a specific time scale in a way that resembles the Epps effect amplification when going from past to present. The minimal spanning trees also change their topology and, for the short time scales, they become more centralized with increasing maximum node degrees, while for the long time scales they become more distributed, but also more correlated at the same time. Apart from the inter-market dependencies, the detrended cross-correlations between the cryptocurrency market and some traditional markets, like the stock markets, commodity markets, and Forex, are also analyzed. The cryptocurrency market shows higher levels of cross-correlations with the other markets during the same turbulent periods, in which it is strongly cross-correlated itself.

q-fin.ST↗

Financial Return Distributions: Past, Present, and COVID-19

We analyze the price return distributions of currency exchange rates, cryptocurrencies, and contracts for differences (CFDs) representing stock indices, stock shares, and commodities. Based on recent data from the years 2017--2020, we model tails of the return distributions at different time scales by using power-law, stretched exponential, and $q$-Gaussian functions. We focus on the fitted function parameters and how they change over the years by comparing our results with those from earlier studies and find that, on the time horizons of up to a few minutes, the so-called "inverse-cubic power-law" still constitutes an appropriate global reference. However, we no longer observe the hypothesized universal constant acceleration of the market time flow that was manifested before in an ever faster convergence of empirical return distributions towards the normal distribution. Our results do not exclude such a scenario but, rather, suggest that some other short-term processes related to a current market situation alter market dynamics and may mask this scenario. Real market dynamics is associated with a continuous alternation of different regimes with different statistical properties. An example is the COVID-19 pandemic outburst, which had an enormous yet short-time impact on financial markets. We also point out that two factors -- speed of the market time flow and the asset cross-correlation magnitude -- while related (the larger the speed, the larger the cross-correlations on a given time scale), act in opposite directions with regard to the return distribution tails, which can affect the expected distribution convergence to the normal distribution.

q-fin.ST↗