arXiv subjects

Marcio Santetti

Publications and source records attributed to Marcio Santetti.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

The economy-wide rebound effect and U.S. business cycles: A time-varying exercise

Energy efficiency gains in production and consumption are undisputed economic and environmental goals. However, potential energy savings derived from efficiency innovations may have short-lasting effects due to increased demand for more affordable energy services. Measuring the size of this rebound effect is a critical tool for better assessing the reliability of energy-saving technological change for global warming mitigation. This paper estimates the size of the economy-wide rebound effect using time-varying Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models with stochastic volatility for U.S. business-cycle peak and trough periods. All models estimate a rebound effect close to 100%, with reductions in energy use lasting no longer than three years following energy efficiency innovations. The latter, therefore, are an insufficient tool for effectively changing historical energy use patterns.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

A time-varying finance-led model for U.S. business cycles

This paper empirically assesses predictions of Goodwin's model of cyclical growth regarding demand and distributive regimes when integrating the real and financial sectors. In addition, it evaluates how financial and employment shocks affect the labor market and monetary policy variables over six different U.S. business-cycle peaks. It identifies a parsimonious Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive model with Stochastic Volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) with the labor share of income, the employment rate, residential investment, and the interest rate spread as endogenous variables. Using Bayesian inference methods, key results suggest (i) a combination of profit-led demand and profit-squeeze distribution; (ii) weakening of these regimes during the Great Moderation; and (iii) significant connections between the standard Goodwinian variables and residential investment as well as term spreads. Findings presented here broadly conform to the transition to increasingly deregulated financial and labor markets initiated in the 1980s.

econ.GN↗