Alternative routes to universal diversity scaling in component systems: from proteomes to large language models
Remarkably common statistical laws characterize the diversity scaling and its fluctuations across a wide range of complex "component systems". These regularities are often interpreted as signatures of an underlying innovation mechanism driving the growth of component diversity, but the basic ingredients necessary for their emergence remain poorly understood. In particular, from language and technological artifacts to genomes and gene expression patterns, the number of distinct components grows sublinearly with system size, while its variance scales approximately as the square of its mean. This behavior is consistent across diverse systems, raising the question of whether general constraints or emergent principles underlying diversity and innovation define the architectures of realizations with different numbers of components. To address this question, we derive analytical conditions for the joint emergence of these two diversity laws within a broad class of growth models, showing that they require a specific asymptotic dependence of the innovation probability on diversity and system size. We then demonstrate that the same macroscopic laws arise in a different class of models with latent heterogeneity, where quadratic fluctuation scaling always emerges asymptotically as a consequence of general statistical principles, essentially the law of total variance, without explicitly assuming an innovation mechanism or any specific rule for system assembly. We compare these predictions with empirical data from language, genomes, LEGO constructions, and texts generated by large language models. Our results show that empirical diversity scaling laws strongly constrain generative models but do not uniquely identify the mechanisms generating diversity, revealing a close correspondence between innovation-driven growth models and latent-variable descriptions.