arXiv subjects

Marco Geraci

Publications and source records attributed to Marco Geraci.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Estimation of the generalized Laplace distribution and its projection onto the circle

The generalized Laplace (GL) distribution, which falls in the larger family of generalized hyperbolic distributions, provides a versatile model to deal with a variety of applications thanks to its shape parameters. The elliptically symmetric GL admits a polar representation that can be used to yield a circular distribution, which we call projected GL (PGL) distribution. The latter does not appear to have been considered yet in practical applications. In this article, we explore an easy-to-implement maximum likelihood estimation strategy based on Gaussian quadrature for the scale-mixture representation of the GL and its projection onto the circle. A simulation study is carried out to benchmark the fitting routine against expectation-maximization and direct maximum likelihood to assess its feasibility, while the PGL model is contrasted with the von Mises and projected normal distributions to assess its prospective utility. The results showed that quadrature-based estimation is more reliable consistently across selected scenarios and sample sizes than alternative estimation methods, while the PGL complements other distributions in terms of flexibility.

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arXiv2023

Quantile mixed graphical models with an application to mass public shootings in the United States

Over the last fifty years, the United States have experienced hundreds of mass public shootings that resulted in thousands of victims. Characterized by their frequent occurrence and devastating nature, mass shootings have become a major public health hazard that dramatically impact safety and well-being of individuals and communities. Given the epidemic traits of this phenomenon, there have been concerted efforts to understand the root causes that lead to public mass shootings in order to implement effective prevention strategies. We propose a quantile mixed graphical model for investigating the intricacies of inter- and infra-domain relationships of this complex phenomenon, where conditional relations between discrete and continuous variables are modeled without stringent distributional assumptions using Parzen's definition of mid-quantile. To retrieve the graph structure and recover only the most relevant connections, we consider the neighborhood selection approach in which conditional mid-quantiles of each variable in the network are modeled as a sparse function of all others. We propose a two-step procedure to estimate the graph where, in the first step, conditional mid-probabilities are obtained semi-parametrically and, in the second step, the model parameters are estimated by solving an implicit equation with a LASSO penalty.

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arXiv2020

Directional quantile classifiers

We introduce classifiers based on directional quantiles. We derive theoretical results for selecting optimal quantile levels given a direction, and, conversely, an optimal direction given a quantile level. We also show that the misclassification rate is infinitesimal if population distributions differ by at most a location shift and if the number of directions is allowed to diverge at the same rate of the problem's dimension. We illustrate the satisfactory performance of our proposed classifiers in both small and high dimensional settings via a simulation study and a real data example. The code implementing the proposed methods is publicly available in the R package Qtools.

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arXiv2019

Mid-quantile regression for discrete responses

We develop quantile regression methods for discrete responses by extending Parzen's definition of marginal mid-quantiles. As opposed to existing approaches, which are based on either jittering or latent constructs, we use interpolation and define the conditional mid-quantile function as the inverse of the conditional mid-distribution function. We propose a two-step estimator whereby, in the first step, conditional mid-probabilities are obtained nonparametrically and, in the second step, regression coefficients are estimated by solving an implicit equation. When constraining the quantile index to a data-driven admissible range, the second-step estimating equation has a least-squares type, closed-form solution. The proposed estimator is shown to be strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. A simulation study shows that our estimator performs satisfactorily and has an advantage over a competing alternative based on jittering. Our methods can be applied to a large variety of discrete responses, including binary, ordinal, and count variables. We show an application using data on prescription drugs in the United States and discuss two key findings. First, our analysis suggests a possible differential medical treatment that worsens the gender inequality among the most fragile segment of the population. Second, obesity is a strong driver of the number of prescription drugs and is stronger for more frequent medications users. The proposed methods are implemented in the R package Qtools.

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arXiv2019

Quantile contours and allometric modelling for risk classification of abnormal ratios with an application to asymmetric growth-restriction in preterm infants

We develop an approach to risk classification based on quantile contours and allometric modelling of multivariate anthropometric measurements. We propose the definition of allometric direction tangent to the directional quantile envelope, which divides ratios of measurements into half-spaces. This in turn provides an operational definition of directional quantile that can be used as cutoff for risk assessment. We show the application of the proposed approach using a large dataset from the Vermont Oxford Network containing observations of birthweight (BW) and head circumference (HC) for more than 150,000 preterm infants. Our analysis suggests that disproportionately growth-restricted infants with a larger HC-to-BW ratio are at increased mortality risk as compared to proportionately growth-restricted infants. The role of maternal hypertension is also investigated.

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arXiv2019

Nonlinear quantile mixed models

In regression applications, the presence of nonlinearity and correlation among observations offer computational challenges not only in traditional settings such as least squares regression, but also (and especially) when the objective function is non-smooth as in the case of quantile regression. In this paper, we develop methods for the modeling and estimation of nonlinear conditional quantile functions when data are clustered within two-level nested designs. This work represents an extension of the linear quantile mixed models of Geraci and Bottai (2014, Statistics and Computing). We develop a novel algorithm which is a blend of a smoothing algorithm for quantile regression and a second order Laplacian approximation for nonlinear mixed models. To assess the proposed methods, we present a simulation study and two applications, one in pharmacokinetics and one related to growth curve modeling in agriculture.

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arXiv2019

Additive quantile regression for clustered data with an application to children's physical activity

Additive models are flexible regression tools that handle linear as well as nonlinear terms. The latter are typically modelled via smoothing splines. Additive mixed models extend additive models to include random terms when the data are sampled according to cluster designs (e.g., longitudinal). These models find applications in the study of phenomena like growth, certain disease mechanisms and energy consumption in humans, when repeated measurements are available. In this paper, we propose a novel additive mixed model for quantile regression. Our methods are motivated by an application to physical activity based on a dataset with more than half million accelerometer measurements in children of the UK Millennium Cohort Study. In a simulation study, we assess the proposed methods against existing alternatives.

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arXiv2019

Letter to the Editor

Galarza, Lachos and Bandyopadhyay (2017) have recently proposed a method of estimating linear quantile mixed models (Geraci and Bottai, 2014) based on a Monte Carlo EM algorithm. They assert that their procedure represents an improvement over the numerical quadrature and non-smooth optimization approach implemented by Geraci (2014). The objective of this note is to demonstrate that this claim is incorrect. We also point out several inaccuracies and shortcomings in their paper which affect other results and conclusions that can be drawn.

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arXiv2017

Mixed-effects models using the normal and the Laplace distributions: A $\mathbf{2 \times 2}$ convolution scheme for applied research

In statistical applications, the normal and the Laplace distributions are often contrasted: the former as a standard tool of analysis, the latter as its robust counterpart. I discuss the convolutions of these two popular distributions and their applications in research. I consider four models within a simple $2\times 2$ scheme which is of practical interest in the analysis of clustered (e.g., longitudinal) data. In my view, these models, some of which are less known than others by the majority of applied researchers, constitute a 'family' of sensible alternatives when modelling issues arise. In three examples, I revisit data published recently in the epidemiological and clinical literature as well as a classic biological dataset.

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arXiv2017

A novel quantile-based decomposition of the indirect effect in mediation analysis with an application to infant mortality in the US population

In mediation analysis, the effect of an exposure (or treatment) on an outcome variable is decomposed into two components: a direct effect, which pertains to an immediate influence of the exposure on the outcome, and an indirect effect, which the exposure exerts on the outcome through a third variable called mediator. Our motivating example concerns the relationship between maternal smoking (the exposure, $X$), birthweight (the mediator, $M$), and infant mortality (the outcome, $Y$), which has attracted the interest of epidemiologists and statisticians for many years. We introduce new causal estimands, named $u$-specific direct and indirect effects, which describe the direct and indirect effects of the exposure on the outcome at a specific quantile $u$ of the mediator, $0 < u < 1$. Under sequential ignorability we derive an interesting and novel decomposition of $u$-specific indirect effects. The components of this decomposition have a straightforward interpretation and can provide new insights into the complexity of the mechanisms underlying the indirect effect. We illustrate the proposed methods using data on infant mortality in the US population. We provide analytical evidence that supports the hypothesis that the risk of sudden infant death syndrome is not predicted by changes in the birthweight distribution.

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