arXiv subjects

Marco Micheli

Publications and source records attributed to Marco Micheli.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Catastrophic disruption of asteroid 2023 CX1 and implications for planetary defense

Mitigation of the threat from airbursting asteroids requires an understanding of the potential risk they pose for the ground. How asteroids release their kinetic energy in the atmosphere is not well understood due to the rarity of significant impacts. Ordinary chondrites, in particular L chondrites, represent a frequent type of Earth-impacting asteroids. Here, we present the first comprehensive, space-to-lab characterization of an L chondrite impact. Small asteroid 2023 CX1 was detected in space and predicted to impact over Normandy, France, on 13 February 2023. Observations from multiple independent sensors and reduction techniques revealed an unusual but potentially high-risk fragmentation behavior. The nearly spherical 650 $\pm$ 160 kg (72 $\pm$ 6 cm diameter) asteroid catastrophically fragmented around 28 km altitude, releasing 98% of its total energy in a concentrated region of the atmosphere. The resulting shockwave was spherical, not cylindrical, and released more energy closer to the ground. This type of fragmentation increases the risk of significant damage at ground level. These results warrant consideration for a planetary defense strategy for cases where a >3-4 MPa dynamic pressure is expected, including planning for evacuation of areas beneath anticipated disruption locations.

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arXiv2025

JWST detection of a carbon dioxide dominated gas coma surrounding interstellar object 3I/ATLAS

3I/ATLAS is the third confirmed interstellar object to visit our Solar System, and only the second to display a clear coma. Infrared spectroscopy with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) provides the opportunity to measure its coma composition and determine the primary activity drivers. We report the first results from our JWST NIRSpec campaign for 3I/ATLAS, at an inbound heliocentric distance of $r_H=3.32$ au. The spectral images (spanning 0.6-5.3 $μ$m) reveal a CO2 dominated coma, with enhanced outgassing in the sunward direction, and the presence of H2O, CO, OCS, water ice and dust. The coma CO2/H2O mixing ratio of $7.6\pm0.3$ is among the highest ever observed in a comet, and is 4.5-sigma above the trend as a function of heliocentric distance for long-period and Jupiter-family comets (excluding the outlier C/2016 R2). Our observations are compatible with an intrinsically CO2-rich nucleus, which may indicate that 3I/ATLAS contains ices exposed to higher levels of radiation than Solar System comets, or that it formed close to the CO2 ice line in its parent protoplanetary disk. A low coma H2O gas abundance may also be implied, for example, due to inhibited heat penetration into the nucleus, which could suppress the H2O sublimation rate relative to CO2 and CO.

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arXiv2025

Discovery and Preliminary Characterization of a Third Interstellar Object: 3I/ATLAS

We report initial observations aimed at the characterization of a third interstellar object. This object, 3I/ATLAS or C/2025 N1 (ATLAS), was discovered on 2025 July 1 UT and has an orbital eccentricity of $e\sim6.1$, perihelion of $q\sim 1.36$ au, inclination of $\sim175^\circ$, and hyperbolic velocity of $V_\infty\sim 58$ km s$^{-1}$. We report deep stacked images obtained using the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope and the Very Large Telescope that resolve a compact coma. Using images obtained from several smaller ground-based telescopes, we find minimal light curve variation for the object over a $\sim4$ day time span. The visible/near-infrared spectral slope of the object is 17.1$\pm$0.2 %/100 nm, comparable to other interstellar objects and primitive solar system small bodies (comets and D-type asteroids). 3I/ATLAS will be observable through early September 2025, then unobservable by Earth-based observatories near perihelion due to low solar elongation. It will be observable again from the ground in late November 2025. Although this limitation unfortunately prohibits detailed Earth-based observations at perihelion when the activity of 3I/ATLAS is likely to peak, spacecraft at Mars could be used to make valuable observations at this time.

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arXiv2025

First JWST spectrum of distant activity in Long Period Comet C/2024 E1 (Wierzchos)

We observed the new Long Period Comet C/2024 E1 (Wierzchos), inbound at 7 au from the Sun, using the NIRSpec integral field unit on JWST. The spectrum shows absorption features due to water ice in the coma and evidence for CO$_2$ driven activity, with a production rate of $Q(CO_2) = 2.546 \pm 0.019 \times 10^{25}$ molecules s$^{-1}$, and no emission features of water or CO. The latter is surprising, given that CO is more volatile than CO$_2$, and suggests that this comet may have lost its near-surface CO during its early evolution, before implantation in the Oort cloud.

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arXiv2025

Size Constraint on Hayabusa2 Extended Mission Rendezvous Target 1998~KY$_{26}$ via VLT/VISIR Non-detection

1998~KY$_{26}$ is a tiny near-Earth asteroid ($H=26.1$) discovered in 1998. It has been selected as the target of the Hayabusa2 extended mission, which will rendezvous with 1998 KY$_{26}$ in 2031. However, one of the most basic physical properties, size, remains poorly constrained, posing potential challenges for spacecraft operations. We aimed at constraining the size of 1998 KY$_{26}$ by means of thermal infrared observations. We performed thermal infrared observations of 1998 KY$_{26}$ using the ESO Very Large Telescope/VISIR on three consecutive nights in May 2024. After stacking all frames, we find no apparent detection of 1998 KY$_{26}$ on the resulting images. The upper-limit flux density of 1998 KY$_{26}$ is derived as 2 mJy at 10.64 $μ$m. From this upper-limit flux density obtained via non-detection, we conclude that the diameter of 1998 KY$_{26}$ is smaller than 17 m with thermophysical modeling. This upper limit size is smaller than the radar-derived 30 ($\pm$ 10)\,m. Our size constraint on 1998 KY$_{26}$ is essential for the operation of the Hayabusa2 spacecraft during proximity operations using remote sensing instruments as well as a possible impact experiment using the remaining projectile.

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arXiv2025

Astrometry, orbit determination, and thermal inertia of the Tianwen-2 target asteroid (469219) Kamo`oalewa

Context. (469219) Kamo`oalewa is a small near-Earth asteroid, which is currently a quasi-satellite of the Earth. Lightcurve measurements also reveal a rotation period of only about 30 minutes. This asteroid has been selected as the target of the Tianwen-2 sample-return mission of the China National Space Administration. Aims. The first goal of this paper is to observe and improve the orbit determination of (469219) Kamo`oalewa, and better determine the Yarkovsky effect acting on it. The second goal is to estimate the thermal inertia of the asteroid, taking advantage of an improved Yarkovsky effect determination. Methods. Our observational campaign imaged the asteroid from the Loiano Astronomical Station and from the Calar Alto Observatory, in March 2024. We also accurately re-measured a precovery detection from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey from 2004. New astrometry was later used in a 7-dimensional orbit determination, aimed at estimating both the orbital elements and the Yarkovsky effect. Thermal inertia is later studied by using the ASTERIA, a new method that is suitable to estimate thermal inertia of small asteroids. Results. We detected a semi-major axis drift of $(-67.35 \pm 4.70) \times 10^{-4}$ au My$^{-1}$ due to the Yarkovsky effect, with a high signal-to-noise ratio of 14. The new orbit solution also significantly reduced the position uncertainty for the arrival of the Tianwen-2 spacecraft. By using different models for the physical parameters of Kamo`oalewa, the ASTERIA model estimated the thermal inertia at $Γ= 150^{+90}_{-45}$ J m$^{-2}$ K$^{-1}$ s$^{-1/2}$ or $Γ= 181^{+95}_{-60}$ J m$^{-2}$ K$^{-1}$ s$^{-1/2}$.

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arXiv2025

The fall of asteroid 2024 XA$_1$ and the location of possible meteorites

Asteroid 2024 XA$_1$ was discovered on 3 December 2024 at 05:54 UTC by the Bok telescope in Kitt Peak, Arizona, and impacted Earth about 10 hours later over a remote area of the Sakha Republic (Russia). The estimated size of the object was about one meter, and the atmospheric entry produced a bright fireball that was captured by a webcam and several eyewitnesses. The first impact alert was issued at 07:50 UTC by the Meerkat Asteroid Guard of the European Space Agency, which triggered subsequent follow-up observations that confirmed both the object to be real and the occurrence of the impact with Earth. Here we present the operations and results from the NEO Coordination Centre (NEOCC) upon the impact event. Because the entry likely dropped meteorites on the ground, we also estimate the possible strewn fields for future meteorite search campaigns.

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arXiv2025

JWST sighting of decameter main-belt asteroids and view on meteorite sources

Asteroid discoveries are essential for planetary-defense efforts aiming to prevent impacts with Earth, including the more frequent megaton explosions from decameter impactors. While large asteroids ($\geq$100 km) have remained in the main belt since their formation, small asteroids are commonly transported to the near-Earth object (NEO) population. However, due to the lack of direct observational constraints, their size-frequency distribution--which informs our understanding of the NEOs and the delivery of meteorite samples to Earth--varies significantly among models. Here, we report 138 detections of the smallest asteroids ($\gtrapprox $10 m) ever observed in the main belt, which were enabled by JWST's infrared capabilities covering the asteroids' emission peaks and synthetic tracking techniques. Despite small orbital arcs, we constrain the objects' distances and phase angles using known asteroids as proxies, allowing us to derive sizes via radiometric techniques. Their size-frequency distribution exhibits a break at ${\sim}100$ m (debiased cumulative slopes of $q = -2.66\pm0.60$ and $-0.97\pm0.14$ for diameters smaller and larger than $\sim $100 m, respectively), suggestive of a population driven by collisional cascade. These asteroids were sampled from multiple asteroid families--most likely Nysa, Polana and Massalia--according to the geometry of pointings considered here. Through additional long-stare infrared observations, JWST is poised to serendipitously detect thousands of decameter-scale asteroids across the sky, probing individual asteroid families and the source regions of meteorites "in-situ".

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arXiv2024

Two Distinct Populations of Dark Comets Delineated by Orbits and Sizes

Small bodies are capable of delivering essential prerequisites for the development of life, such as volatiles and organics, to the terrestrial planets. For example, empirical evidence suggests that water was delivered to the Earth by hydrated planetesimals from distant regions of the Solar System. Recently, several morphologically inactive near-Earth objects (NEOs) were reported to experience significant nongravitational accelerations inconsistent with radiation-based effects, and possibly explained by volatile-driven outgassing. However, these "dark comets" display no evidence of comae in archival images, which are the defining feature of cometary activity. Here we report detections of nongravitational accelerations on seven additional objects previously classified as inactive (doubling the population) that could also be explainable by asymmetric mass loss. A detailed search of archival survey and targeted data rendered no detection of dust activity in any of these objects in individual or stacked images. We calculate dust production limits of $\sim10$, $0.1$, and $0.1$ kg s$^{-1}$ for 1998 FR$_{11}$, 2001 ME$_{1}$, and 2003 RM with these data, indicating little or no dust surrounding the objects during the observations. This set of dark comets reveals the delineation between two distinct populations: larger, "outer" dark comets on eccentric orbits that are end members of a continuum in activity level of comets, and smaller, "inner" dark comets on near-circular orbits that could signify a new population. These objects may trace various stages in the life cycle of a previously undetected, but potentially numerous, volatile-rich population that may have provided essential material to the Earth.

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arXiv2024

Telescope-to-Fireball Characterization of Earth Impactor 2022 WJ1

Comparing how an asteroid appears in space to its ablation behavior during atmospheric passage and finally to the properties of associated meteorites represents the ultimate probe of small near-Earth objects. We present observations from the Lowell Discovery Telescope and from multiple meteor camera networks of 2022 WJ1, an Earth impactor which was disrupted over the North American Great Lakes on 19 November 2022. As far as we are aware, this is only the second time an Earth impactor has been specifically observed in multiple passbands prior to impact to characterize its composition. The orbits derived from telescopic observations submitted to the Minor Planet Center (MPC) and ground-based meteor cameras result in impact trajectories that agree to within 40 meters, but no meteorites have been found as of yet. The telescopic observations suggest a silicate-rich surface, and thus a moderate-to-high albedo, which results in an estimated size for the object of just D = 40 - 60 cm. Modeling the fragmentation of 2022 WJ1 during its fireball phase also suggests an approximate half-meter original size for the object as well as an ordinary chondrite-like strength. These two lines of evidence both support that 2022 WJ1 was likely an S-type condritic object and the smallest asteroid compositionally characterized in space. We discuss how best to combine telescopic and meteor camera datasets, how well these techniques agree, and what can be learned from studies of ultra-small asteroids.

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arXiv2024

The Volatile Composition and Activity Evolution of Main-Belt Comet 358P/PANSTARRS

We report the detection of water vapor associated with main-belt comet 358P/PANSTARRS on UT 2024 January 8-9 using the NIRSPEC instrument aboard JWST. We derive a water production rate of Q(H2O)=(5.0+/-0.2)x10^25 molecules/s, marking only the second direct detection of sublimation products of any kind from a main-belt comet, after 238P/Read. Similar to 238P, we find a remarkable absence of hypervolatile species, finding Q(CO2)<7.6x10^22 molecules/s, corresponding to Q(CO2)/Q(H2O)<0.2%. Upper limits on CH3OH and CO emission are also estimated. Photometry from ground-based observations show that the dust coma brightened and faded slowly over ~250 days in 2023-2024, consistent with photometric behavior observed in 2012-2013, but also indicate a ~2.5x decline in the dust production rate between these two periods. Dynamical dust modeling shows that the coma's morphology as imaged by JWST's NIRCAM instrument on 2023 November 22 can be reproduced by asymmetric dust emission from a nucleus with a mid-range obliquity (~80 deg) with a steady-state mass loss rate of ~0.8 kg/s. Finally, we find similar Afrho-to-gas ratios of log10(Afrho/Q(H2O))=-24.8+/-0.2 for 358P and log10(Afrho/QH2O)=-24.4+/-0.2 for 238P, suggesting that Afrho could serve as an effective proxy for estimating water production rates in other active main-belt comets. The confirmation of water vapor outgassing in both main-belt comets observed by JWST to date reinforces the use of recurrent activity near perihelion as an indicator of sublimation-driven activity in active asteroids.

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arXiv2024

The Aegis Orbit Determination and Impact Monitoring System and services of the ESA NEOCC web portal

The NEO Coordination Centre (NEOCC) of the European Space Agency is an operational centre that, among other activities, computes the orbits of near-Earth objects and their probabilities of impact with the Earth. The NEOCC started providing information about near-Earth objects in 2012 on a dedicated web portal, accessible at https://neo.ssa.esa.int/. Since the beginning of the operational phase, many developments and improvements have been implemented regarding the software, the data provided, and the portal. One of the most important upgrades is that the NEOCC is now independently providing data through a newly developed Orbit Determination and Impact Monitoring system, named Aegis. All the data computed by Aegis is publicly available on the NEOCC web portal, and Aegis is also used to maintain all the major services offered. The most important services comprise an orbital catalogue of all known asteroids, a list of possible future impacts with the Earth (also called Risk List), a list of forthcoming close approaches, a set of graphical toolkits, and an on-demand ephemerides service. Many of the services are also available through dedicated APIs, which can be used to automatically retrieve data. Here we give an overview of the algorithms implemented in the Aegis software, and provide a summary of the services offered by the NEOCC that are supported by Aegis.

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arXiv2024

Ab initio strewn field for small asteroids impacts

In recent years, nine small near-Earth asteroids were discovered a few hours before the collision with the Earth: these are about one meter in diameter objects that have all disintegrated in the atmosphere, generating bright fireballs without causing damage. In some cases, several meteorites have been recovered. In cases like these, it is not always possible to triangulate the fireball generated by the asteroid's fall to circumscribe the strewn field position. For this reason, it can be important to compute a strewn field "ab initio", i.e. propagating the asteroid's trajectory in the atmosphere starting from the initial conditions obtained directly from the heliocentric orbit, coupled with some reasonable hypothesis about the mean strength and the mass of the fragments to "sample" the strewn field. By adopting a simple fragmentation model coupled with a real atmospheric profile, useful results can be obtained to locate the strewn field, as we will show for the recent falls of asteroids 2024 BX1, 2023 CX1 and 2008 TC3. It was possible to locate the strewn field of our study cases with an uncertainty of the order of one kilometre with the mean strength in the range 0.5-5 MPa and the mass of the possible final fragments in the 1 g - 1 kg range. We have also verified that a pancake phase after fragmentation is unnecessary to locate the strewn field for a small asteroid fall.

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arXiv2024

Strong Nongravitational Accelerations and the Potential for Misidentification of Near-Earth Objects

Nongravitational accelerations in the absence of observed activity have recently been identified on NEOs, opening the question of the prevalence of anisotropic mass-loss in the near-Earth environment. Motivated by the necessity of nongravitational accelerations to identify 2010 VL$_{65}$ and 2021 UA$_{12}$ as a single object, we investigate the problem of linking separate apparitions in the presence of nongravitational perturbations. We find that nongravitational accelerations on the order of $10^{-9}$ au/d$^2$ can lead to a change in plane-of-sky positions of $\sim10^3$ arcsec between apparitions. Moreover, we inject synthetic tracklets of hypothetical nongravitationally-accelerating NEOs into the Minor Planet Center orbit identification algorithms. We find that at large nongravitational accelerations ($|A_i|\geq10^{-8}$ au/d$^2$) these algorithms fail to link a significant fraction of these tracklets. We further show that if orbits can be determined for both apparitions, the tracklets will be linked regardless of nongravitational accelerations, although they may be linked to multiple objects. In order to aid in the identification and linkage of nongravitationally accelerating objects, we propose and test a new methodology to search for unlinked pairs. When applied to the current census of NEOs, we recover the previously identified case but identify no new linkages. We conclude that current linking algorithms are generally robust to nongravitational accelerations, but objects with large nongravitational accelerations may potentially be missed. While current algorithms are well-positioned for the anticipated increase in the census population from future survey missions, it may be possible to find objects with large nongravitational accelerations hidden in isolated tracklet pairs.

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arXiv2024

Debiasing astro-Photometric Observations with Corrections Using Statistics (DePhOCUS)

Photometric measurements allow the determination of an asteroid's absolute magnitude, which often represents the sole means to infer its size. Photometric observations can be obtained in a variety of filters that can be unique to a specific observatory. Those observations are then calibrated into specific bands with respect to reference star catalogs. In order to combine all the different measurements for evaluation, photometric observations need to be converted to a common band, typically V-band. Current band-correction schemes in use by IAU's Minor Planet Center, JPL's Center for Near Earth Object Studies and ESA's NEO Coordination Centre use average correction values for the apparent magnitude derived from photometry of asteroids as the corrections are dependent on the typically unknown spectrum of the object to be corrected. By statistically analyzing the photometric residuals of asteroids, we develop a new photometric correction scheme that does not only consider the band, but also accounts for reference catalog and observatory. We describe a new statistical photometry correction scheme for asteroid observations with debiased corrections. Testing this scheme on a reference group of asteroids, we see a 36% reduction in the photometric residuals. Moreover, the new scheme leads to a more accurate and debiased determination of the H-G magnitude system and, in turn, to more reliable inferred sizes. We discuss the significant shift in the corrections with this "DePhOCUS" debiasing system, its limitations, and the impact for photometric and physical properties of all asteroids, especially Near-Earth Objects.

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arXiv2024

Rotation state, colors, and albedo of the mission-accessible tiny near-Earth asteroid 2001 QJ$_{142}$

Context. Characterizing mission-accessible asteroids using telescopic observations is fundamental for target-selection and planning for spacecraft missions. Near-Earth asteroids on Earth-like orbits are of particular importance for applications such as asteroid mining. Aims. 2001 QJ142 is a tiny (D $\leq$ 100 m) near-Earth asteroid on an Earth-like orbit with a semimajor axis of 1.06 au, orbital eccentricity of 0.09, and orbital inclination of 3.10$^{\circ}$. We aim to characterize 2001 QJ142 using ground-based observations with future spacecraft missions in mind. Methods. We performed visible multicolor photometry of 2001 QJ142 using the TriCCS on the Seimei 3.8 m telescope in February 2024. We also revisited the images taken with the Suprime-Cam on the Subaru 8.2 m telescope in August 2012. Results. Visible color indices of 2001 QJ142 indicate that 2001 QJ142 is a C- or X-complex asteroid. We detect a possible fast rotation with a period of about 10 min, which is consistent with a previous report. The geometric albedo of 2001 QJ142 is derived to be about 0.3 from a slope of its photometric phase curve, which is consistent with an albedo derived from thermal observations with updated physical quantities. A straightforward interpretation is that 2001 QJ142 is either an E- or M-type asteroid, although surface properties of such tiny fast-rotating asteroids are not well understood. Conclusions. We infer that 2001 QJ142 is a fast-rotating mission-accessible E- or M-type near-Earth asteroid. More characterizations of tiny asteroids are particularly important for a deeper understanding of their nature.

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arXiv2024

2019 UO$_{14}$: A Transient Trojan of Saturn

Saturn has long been the only giant planet in our solar system without any known Trojan members. In this paper, with serendipitous archival observations and refined orbit determination, we report that 2019 UO$_{14}$ is a Trojan of the gas giant. However, the object is only a transient Trojan currently librating around the leading Lagrange point $L_4$ of the Sun-Saturn system in a period of $\sim\!0.7$ kyr. Our N-body numerical simulation shows that 2019 UO$_{14}$ was likely captured as a Centaur and became trapped around $L_4$ $\sim\!2$ kyr ago from a horseshoe coorbital. The current Trojan state will be maintained for another millennium or thereabouts before transitioning back to a horseshoe state. Additionally, we characterize the physical properties of 2019 UO$_{14}$. Assuming a linear phase slope of $0.06 \pm 0.01$ mag/deg, the mean $r$-band absolute magnitude of the object was determined to be $H_r = 13.11 \pm 0.07$, with its color measured to be consistent with those of Jupiter and Neptune Trojans and not statistically different from Centaurs. Although the short-lived Saturn Trojan exhibited no compelling evidence of activity in the observations, we favour the possibility that it could be an active Trojan. If confirmed, 2019 UO$_{14}$ would be marked as the first active Trojan in our solar system. We conservatively determine the optical depth of dust within our photometric aperture to be $\lesssim\!10^{-7}$, corresponding to a dust mass-loss rate to be $\lesssim\!1$ kg s$^{-1}$, provided that the physical properties of dust grains resemble Centaur 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1.

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arXiv2024

The Dynamical Origins of the Dark Comets and a Proposed Evolutionary Track

So-called 'dark comets' are small, morphologically inactive near-Earth objects (NEOs) that exhibit nongravitational accelerations inconsistent with radiative effects. These objects exhibit short rotational periods (minutes to hours), where measured. We find that the strengths required to prevent catastrophic disintegration are consistent with those measured in cometary nuclei and expected in rubble pile objects. We hypothesize that these dark comets are the end result of a rotational fragmentation cascade, which is consistent with their measured physical properties. We calculate the predicted size-frequency distribution for objects evolving under this model. Using dynamical simulations, we further demonstrate that the majority of these bodies originated from the $ν_6$ resonance, implying the existence of volatiles in the current inner main belt. Moreover, one of the dark comets, (523599) 2003 RM, likely originated from the outer main belt, although a JFC origin is also plausible. These results provide strong evidence that volatiles from a reservoir in the inner main belt are present in the near-Earth environment.

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